Upside case
Bull case
$589+197.5%
COIN would need investors to value it at roughly 202x earnings — about 134x more generous than today's 68x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
37
analysts
21 bullish · 4 bearish · 37 covering COIN
Strong Buy
0
Buy
21
Hold
12
Sell
4
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$243
+22.9% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $589
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
37
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
67.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $56.9B
COIN price targets
Three scenarios for where COIN stock could go
Current
~$198
Confidence
42 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $198
Base
$191
Bull
$589
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$191-3.7%
This is close to how the market is already pricing COIN — at roughly 65x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Coinbase Global, Inc.
COIN · NASDAQFinancial ServicesFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesDecember year-end
Coinbase operates a leading cryptocurrency exchange platform that enables users to buy, sell, and store digital assets. It generates revenue primarily from transaction fees on trading (about 80% of revenue) and subscription services like staking and custody. Its key advantage is being the most trusted and regulated U.S. crypto platform with a massive retail user base and institutional adoption.
Market Cap
$56.9B
Net Income TTM
$3.2B
COIN Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+1160.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$1.94/$1.94
Revenue
$2.0B/$2.1B
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.12/$1.25
Revenue
$1.5B/$1.6B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.44/$1.20
Revenue
$1.9B/$1.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$-2.49/$0.99
Revenue
$1.8B/$1.8B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $1.94/$1.94 | +0.0% | $2.0B/$2.1B | -1.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.12/$1.25 | -90.4% | $1.5B/$1.6B | -5.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.44/$1.20 | +20.0% | $1.9B/$1.8B | +5.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $-2.49/$0.99 | -350.5% | $1.8B/$1.8B | -1.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$6.8B
+3.2% YoY
FY2
$7.6B
+10.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.00
-72.7% YoY
FY2
$4.28
+42.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$326M
Next Earnings
May 7, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.24
Expected Revenue
$1.5B
COIN beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
COIN Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $6.9B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Bank Servicing, Consumer, Net
47.9%
-3.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
83.7%
+10.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Bank Servicing, Consumer, Net is the largest disclosed segment at 47.9% of FY 2025 revenue, down 3.1% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 83.7%, up 10.1% YoY.
COIN Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Undervalued
Fair value est. $215 — implies +12.3% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
12.3%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
COIN
44.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+76% premium
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
COIN
44.5x
vs
Financial Services
13.4x
+233% premium
vs COIN 5Y Avg P/E
Today
44.5x
vs
5Y Average
31.5x
+41% premium
Forward PE
67.8x
S&P 500
19.1x
+256%
Financial Services
10.5x
+546%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
44.5x
S&P 500
25.2x
+76%
Financial Services
13.4x
+233%
5Y Avg
31.5x
+41%
PEG Ratio
0.88x
S&P 500
1.75x
-49%
Financial Services
1.03x
-14%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
48.3x
S&P 500
15.3x
+217%
Financial Services
11.4x
+323%
5Y Avg
32.8x
+47%
Price/FCF
23.4x
S&P 500
21.3x
+10%
Financial Services
10.6x
+120%
5Y Avg
28.8x
-19%
Price/Sales
8.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
+174%
Financial Services
2.3x
+281%
5Y Avg
8.8x
-2%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Financial Services
2.68%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | COIN | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg COIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 67.8x | 19.1x+256% | 10.5x+546% | — |
| Trailing PE | 44.5x | 25.2x+76% | 13.4x+233% | 31.5x+41% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.88x | 1.75x-49% | 1.03x-14% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 48.3x | 15.3x+217% | 11.4x+323% | 32.8x+47% |
| Price/FCF | 23.4x | 21.3x | 10.6x+120% | 28.8x-19% |
| Price/Sales | 8.6x | 3.1x+174% | 2.3x+281% | 8.8x |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 2.68% | — |
COIN trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCOIN Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
COIN generates 20.1% ROE and 10.3% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$11.02
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
20.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
3.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
10.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$11.6B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$4.0B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
20.1%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.4%
Dividend
—
Buyback
1.4%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$790M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
287M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageCOIN Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Regulatory Uncertainty
The cryptocurrency market is subject to evolving global regulations. Adverse rulings on staking services, token classification as securities, or operational restrictions could materially reduce Coinbase’s revenue and limit business operations. This uncertainty is considered one of the most significant risks affecting future performance.
High Risk
Market Volatility & Cyclicality
Coinbase’s performance is tied to trading volumes and crypto asset prices, which can swing dramatically. In bear markets, trading activity can shrink sharply, pressuring revenue and profits and potentially causing losses. The stock’s volatility is significantly higher than traditional financial stocks, often amplified by market movements and regulatory news.
High Risk
Revenue Concentration
The company derives the bulk of its revenue from transaction fees, making earnings highly sensitive to market cycles. During downturns, trading volumes can collapse, leading to substantial quarterly losses. This concentration amplifies earnings volatility across cycles.
High Risk
Cybersecurity Threats
As a digital asset platform, Coinbase is exposed to cyber risks. Theft, loss, or destruction of private keys, or breaches could result in customer asset loss, regulatory penalties, reputational damage, and financial losses. Such incidents could materially harm the company’s financial position.
Medium
Competition
Coinbase faces increasing competition from established exchanges like Binance and Kraken, as well as emerging decentralized platforms. This competition can erode market share and pricing power, potentially impacting revenue growth.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why COIN Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Diversified Revenue Streams
Coinbase’s Subscription and Services segment, which includes staking, USDC rewards, and custody fees, has shown significant growth, providing a buffer against the cyclical nature of transaction-based revenue. This shift toward recurring revenue is positioned to stabilize earnings even during volatile crypto market periods.
Institutional Adoption Momentum
Regulatory wins such as the conditional OCC approval for a national trust bank strengthen Coinbase’s institutional custody capabilities. The company’s role as a custodian for Bitcoin ETFs further positions it to capture increased institutional flows into the crypto market.
Product Expansion with Base and Beyond
Coinbase’s Layer‑2 network, Base, has become a standout performer, contributing to transaction‑fee revenue. The platform’s expansion into stock trading, prediction markets, and tokenized stocks diversifies use cases and increases daily user engagement.
Market Position and Reputation
Coinbase is recognized as the leading U.S. cryptocurrency exchange, backed by a strong reputation for security and brand recognition. Its established infrastructure and trust advantage provide a competitive moat in a crowded market.
Crypto Market Growth Potential
A favorable regulatory environment and the prospect of a new secular bull cycle in the crypto market are expected to drive higher adoption and trading volumes. These macro‑level catalysts would benefit Coinbase’s broad product ecosystem.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
COIN Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$197.96
52W Range Position
19%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$139.36
+42.0% from the low
52-Week High
$444.65
-55.5% from the high
1 Month
+13.26%
3 Month
+19.89%
YTD
-16.3%
1 Year
+0.5%
3Y CAGR
+50.5%
5Y CAGR
-5.1%
10Y CAGR
-4.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
COIN vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
67.8x
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
Revenue Growth
+3.2%
vs +38.2% median
-92% below peer median
Net Margin
—
vs -33.2% median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
COI COIN Coinbase Global, Inc. | $56.9B | 67.8x | +3.2% | — | Buy | +22.9% |
MAR MARA Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc. | $5.0B | — | +29.5% | — | Buy | +23.8% |
RIO RIOT Riot Platforms, Inc. | $9.0B | — | +38.2% | — | Buy | +17.8% |
CLS CLSK CleanSpark, Inc. | $3.7B | — | +40.2% | -33.2% | Buy | +39.4% |
HUT HUT Hut 8 Corp. | $12.1B | — | +36.9% | — | Buy | -27.9% |
CIF CIFR Cipher Mining Inc. | $8.9B | — | +43.0% | — | Buy | +27.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
COIN Dividend and Capital Return
COIN returns 1.4% annually — null% through dividends and 1.4% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
1.4%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.4%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$790M
Estimated Shares Retired
4M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
287M
At 1.4%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsCOIN Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 37 analysts covering the stock, 21 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 12 rate it Hold, and 4 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $243, implying +22.9% from the current price of $198.
02What is the COIN stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for COIN is $243 based on 37 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $440 (+122.3% from today), and the low-end target is $120 (-39.4%). The base case model target is $191.
03Is Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) stock overvalued in 2026?
COIN trades at 67.8x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for COIN in 2026 are: (1) Regulatory Uncertainty — The cryptocurrency market is subject to evolving global regulations. (2) Market Volatility & Cyclicality — Coinbase’s performance is tied to trading volumes and crypto asset prices, which can swing dramatically. (3) Revenue Concentration — The company derives the bulk of its revenue from transaction fees, making earnings highly sensitive to market cycles. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Coinbase Global, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates COIN will report consensus revenue of $6.8B (+3.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.00 (-72.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $7.6B in revenue.
06When does Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) report its next earnings?
Coinbase Global, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-07. Consensus expects EPS of $0.24 and revenue of $1.5B. Over recent quarters, COIN has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Coinbase Global, Inc. generate?
Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) generated $326M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. COIN returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($790M TTM).