Upside case
Bull case
$316+73.8%
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing COKE more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc. (COKE) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
1
analysts
0 bullish · 0 bearish · 1 covering COKE
Strong Buy
0
Buy
0
Hold
1
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
—
— vs today
Scenario Range
$151 – $316
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
1
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
—
Forward P/E · Market cap $15.2B
COKE price targets
Three scenarios for where COKE stock could go
Current
~$182
Confidence
48 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $182
Bear
$151
Base
$240
Bull
$316
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$240+31.9%
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
$151-16.9%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push COKE down roughly 17% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc.
COKE · NASDAQConsumer DefensiveBeverages - Non-AlcoholicDecember year-end
Coca-Cola Consolidated is the largest independent Coca-Cola bottler in the United States, manufacturing and distributing Coca-Cola products across 14 states. It generates revenue primarily through beverage sales—sparkling drinks like Coke and Sprite (~60% of sales) and still beverages including water, tea, and energy drinks (~40%)—with distribution to retailers, restaurants, and vending outlets. Its key advantage is exclusive territorial rights to produce and distribute Coca-Cola products in its operating regions, creating a protected geographic moat.
Market Cap
$15.2B
Revenue TTM
$7.5B
Net Income TTM
$579M
Net Margin
7.7%
COKE Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
—No data
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
—
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 0 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.24/—
Revenue
$1.9B/—
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.06/—
Revenue
$1.9B/—
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.11/—
Revenue
$1.9B/—
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.79/—
Revenue
$1.8B/—
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.24/— | — | $1.9B/— | — |
| Q4 2025 | $2.06/— | — | $1.9B/— | — |
| Q1 2026 | $2.11/— | — | $1.9B/— | — |
| Q2 2026 | $1.79/— | — | $1.8B/— | — |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$7.9B
+5.9% YoY
FY2
$8.4B
+5.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$7.76
-10.6% YoY
FY2
$8.68
+11.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$662M
FCF Margin: 8.8%
Next Earnings
July 29, 2026
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
COKE beat EPS estimates in 0 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
COKE Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $7.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Nonalcoholic Beverage Segment
95.7%
+5.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Nonalcoholic Beverage Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 95.7% of FY 2025 revenue, up 5.0% YoY.
COKE Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $209 — implies +14.9% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
14.9%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
COKE
26.7x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+9% premium
vs Consumer Defensive Trailing P/E
COKE
26.7x
vs
Consumer Defensive
18.9x
+41% premium
vs COKE 5Y Avg P/E
Today
26.7x
vs
5Y Average
20.7x
+28% premium
Forward PE
—
S&P 500
18.8x
—
Consumer Defensive
14.2x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
26.7x
S&P 500
24.4x
+9%
Consumer Defensive
18.9x
+41%
5Y Avg
20.7x
+28%
PEG Ratio
0.89x
S&P 500
1.66x
-47%
Consumer Defensive
1.92x
-54%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
15.3x
S&P 500
15.2x
+1%
Consumer Defensive
11.1x
+38%
5Y Avg
10.1x
+52%
Price/FCF
24.3x
S&P 500
20.7x
+18%
Consumer Defensive
15.3x
+59%
5Y Avg
19.4x
+25%
Price/Sales
2.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
-32%
Consumer Defensive
0.9x
+139%
5Y Avg
1.3x
+60%
Dividend Yield
0.57%
S&P 500
1.91%
-70%
Consumer Defensive
3.06%
-81%
5Y Avg
0.64%
-11%
| Metric | COKE | S&P 500 | Consumer Defensive | 5Y Avg COKE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | — | 18.8x | 14.2x | — |
| Trailing PE | 26.7x | 24.4x | 18.9x+41% | 20.7x+28% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.89x | 1.66x-47% | 1.92x-54% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.3x | 15.2x | 11.1x+38% | 10.1x+52% |
| Price/FCF | 24.3x | 20.7x+18% | 15.3x+59% | 19.4x+25% |
| Price/Sales | 2.1x | 3.1x-32% | 0.9x+139% | 1.3x+60% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.57% | 1.91% | 3.06% | 0.64% |
COKE trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCOKE Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
COKE generates $662M in free cash flow at a 8.8% margin — 34.2% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 17.7% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$7.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+8.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
39.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
13.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
7.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$8.68
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$662M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
8.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
34.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
11.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$282M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$2.7B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
4.1× FCF
~4.1 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
122.9%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (34.2%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
17.7%
Dividend
0.6%
Buyback
17.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$2.6B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.03
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
15.2%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
84M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageCOKE Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Earnings Decline
Adjusted Net Income declined in Q1 2026, contributing to a 15% stock drop since February 2026.
High Risk
Customer Concentration
Reliance on major customers like Walmart and Kroger poses a significant risk if relationships deteriorate.
High Risk
Financial Leverage
$2.79B in debt and $717.9M in contingent obligations increase financial risk and vulnerability to economic downturns.
High Risk
Governance Risk
Harrison family voting control may lead to decisions that prioritize insiders over minority shareholders.
Medium
Input Cost Pressure
Rising costs of raw materials or logistics could squeeze margins, as highlighted in the annual report.
Medium
Regulatory Risks
Extensive regulatory exposure, including potential changes in beverage or environmental laws, could impact operations.
Medium
Cybersecurity Threats
Cybersecurity risks could disrupt operations or lead to data breaches, per the annual report.
Lower
Valuation Concerns
The stock's ~600%+ gain over 5 years raises questions about sustainability and potential overvaluation.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why COKE Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Resilient cash flows
The company demonstrates strong cash flow resilience, supported by valuation metrics and consistent financial performance.
Pricing power advantage
Coca-Cola's ability to raise prices effectively offsets softer demand, contributing to revenue growth despite volume declines.
Diverse beverage portfolio
The company offers a wide range of nonalcoholic beverages, including sparkling drinks, water, coffee, tea, and juices, catering to diverse consumer preferences.
Global industry dominance
Coca-Cola maintains a leading position in the global beverage market, backed by its strong brand recognition and extensive product lineup.
Defensive growth characteristics
The company's business model provides defensive growth, making it resilient in various economic conditions.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
COKE Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$181.54
52W Range Position
67%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$105.44
+72.2% from the low
52-Week High
$219.65
-17.4% from the high
1 Month
+5.41%
3 Month
-14.71%
YTD
+21.2%
1 Year
+70.9%
3Y CAGR
+40.6%
5Y CAGR
+35.4%
10Y CAGR
+29.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
COKE vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
—
vs 18.7x median
Peer median unavailable
Revenue Growth
+5.9%
vs +4.6% median
+27% above peer median
Net Margin
7.7%
vs 15.6% median
-50% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
COK COKE Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc. | $15.2B | — | +5.9% | 7.7% | Hold | — |
PEP PEP PepsiCo, Inc. | $194.1B | 16.4x | +4.6% | 8.8% | Hold | +18.2% |
KO KO The Coca-Cola Company | $341.7B | 24.3x | +2.7% | 27.8% | Buy | +8.5% |
FIZ FIZZ National Beverage Corp. | $3.4B | 18.1x | +2.4% | 15.6% | Sell | -6.3% |
CEL CELH Celsius Holdings, Inc. | $7.9B | 18.7x | +11.4% | 5.9% | Buy | +71.5% |
MNS MNST Monster Beverage Corporation | $89.3B | 39.9x | +9.4% | 23.1% | Buy | -0.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
COKE Dividend and Capital Return
COKE returns capital mainly through $2.6B/year in buybacks (17.1% buyback yield), with a modest 0.57% dividend — combining for 17.7% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
17.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
17.1%
Dividend Yield
0.57%
Payout Ratio
15.2%
How COKE Splits Its Return
Buyback 17.1%
Dividend 0.57%Buybacks 17.1%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.03
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
3Y
3Y Div CAGR
115.4%
5Y Div CAGR
58.5%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$2.6B
Estimated Shares Retired
14M
Approx. Share Reduction
17.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
84M
At 17.1%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.50 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.00 | -50.0% | 20.3% | 21.0% |
| 2024 | $2.00 | +300.0% | 5.5% | 7.1% |
| 2023 | $0.50 | +400.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% |
| 2022 | $0.10 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% |
FAQ
6 questionsCOKE Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc. (COKE) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc. (COKE) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 1 analysts covering the stock, 0 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 1 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The bear case scenario is $151 and the bull case is $316.
02Is Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc. (COKE) stock overvalued in 2026?
Forward earnings data for COKE is not currently available. Review the valuation table above for trailing P/E, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales comparisons against market and sector benchmarks.
03What are the main risks for Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc. (COKE) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for COKE in 2026 are: (1) Earnings Decline — Adjusted Net Income declined in Q1 2026, contributing to a 15% stock drop since February 2026. (2) Customer Concentration — Reliance on major customers like Walmart and Kroger poses a significant risk if relationships deteriorate. (3) Financial Leverage — $2. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
04What is Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates COKE will report consensus revenue of $7.9B (+5.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $7.76 (-10.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $8.4B in revenue.
05When does Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc. (COKE) report its next earnings?
Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-29..
06How much free cash flow does Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc. generate?
Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc. (COKE) generated $662M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 8.8%. COKE returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.6% yield) and share repurchases ($2.6B TTM).