Upside case
Bull case
$85-68.6%
The bull case prices CRDO at 14x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd (CRDO) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
15
analysts
13 bullish · 0 bearish · 15 covering CRDO
Strong Buy
0
Buy
13
Hold
2
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$254
-6.7% vs today
Scenario Range
$41 – $85
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
15
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
44.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $50.1B
CRDO price targets
Three scenarios for where CRDO stock could go
Current
~$272
Confidence
54 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $272
Bear
$41
Base
$65
Bull
$85
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$65-76.2%
At 11x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$41-85.0%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 38x multiple contraction could push CRDO down roughly 85% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd
CRDO · NASDAQTechnologyCommunication EquipmentApril year-end
Credo Technology designs high-speed connectivity chips and cables for data centers and networking equipment. It generates revenue primarily from sales of integrated circuits and active electrical cables — with additional income from licensing its SerDes intellectual property. The company's competitive advantage lies in its proprietary SerDes and DSP technologies that enable energy-efficient, high-bandwidth data transmission for AI and cloud infrastructure.
Market Cap
$50.1B
Revenue TTM
$1.1B
Net Income TTM
$340M
Net Margin
31.8%
CRDO Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+65.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.52/$0.36
Revenue
$223M/$191M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.67/$0.49
Revenue
$268M/$235M
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.07/$0.91
Revenue
$407M/$406M
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.16/$1.02
Revenue
$437M/$432M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.52/$0.36 | +43.9% | $223M/$191M | +17.0% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.67/$0.49 | +36.2% | $268M/$235M | +14.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.07/$0.91 | +17.3% | $407M/$406M | +0.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.16/$1.02 | +13.7% | $437M/$432M | +1.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$1.3B
+17.9% YoY
FY2
$1.4B
+14.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.74
-1.9% YoY
FY2
$1.44
-17.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$284M
FCF Margin: 26.6%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
CRDO beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
CRDO Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $437M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Product
94.4%
+184.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
HONG KONG
55.8%
+247.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Product is the largest disclosed segment at 94.4% of FY 2025 revenue, up 184.2% YoY.
HONG KONG is the largest reported region at 55.8%, up 247.4% YoY.
CRDO Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $294 — implies +8.3% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
8.3%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CRDO
937.3x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+3734% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
CRDO
937.3x
vs
Technology
29.0x
+3131% premium
vs CRDO 5Y Avg P/E
Today
937.3x
vs
5Y Average
148.4x
+531% premium
Forward PE
44.9x
S&P 500
18.8x
+139%
Technology
22.3x
+102%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
937.3x
S&P 500
24.4x
+3734%
Technology
29.0x
+3131%
5Y Avg
148.4x
+531%
PEG Ratio
12.71x
S&P 500
1.66x
+666%
Technology
1.51x
+743%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
832.9x
S&P 500
15.2x
+5376%
Technology
16.6x
+4910%
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
1727.6x
S&P 500
20.7x
+8248%
Technology
19.2x
+8894%
5Y Avg
162.2x
+965%
Price/Sales
114.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
+3613%
Technology
2.4x
+4608%
5Y Avg
13.4x
+755%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Technology
1.11%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | CRDO | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg CRDO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 44.9x | 18.8x+139% | 22.3x+102% | — |
| Trailing PE | 937.3x | 24.4x+3734% | 29.0x+3131% | 148.4x+531% |
| PEG Ratio | 12.71x | 1.66x+666% | 1.51x+743% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 832.9x | 15.2x+5376% | 16.6x+4910% | — |
| Price/FCF | 1727.6x | 20.7x+8248% | 19.2x+8894% | 162.2x+965% |
| Price/Sales | 114.8x | 3.1x+3613% | 2.4x+4608% | 13.4x+755% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.11% | — |
CRDO trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCRDO Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
CRDO generates $284M in free cash flow at a 26.6% margin.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$1.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+226.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
67.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
30.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
31.8%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.77
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$284M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
26.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
6.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
26.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$236M
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$220M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
29.6%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (6.0%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
184M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageCRDO Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Disclosed Risk Factors
Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd disclosed 65 risk factors in its most recent earnings report, indicating significant potential challenges.
Medium
Market Sentiment Volatility
Recent stock price surge attributed to strong earnings and positive market sentiment may not be sustainable, leading to potential volatility.
Medium
AI Data Center Dependence
Credo's focus on AI data center connectivity solutions exposes it to risks associated with shifts in AI market demand.
Lower
Energy Efficiency Challenges
While Credo emphasizes energy-efficient solutions, failure to maintain industry-leading power and performance could impact competitiveness.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CRDO Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Strong financial performance
Credo Technology reported robust Q4 sales of US$437.0 million and net income of US$169.1 million, with full-year sales reaching US$1.34 billion and net income of US$472.28 million, alongside positive revenue guidance for Q1 2027.
AI infrastructure demand
The company's results highlight how accelerating AI infrastructure demand is driving growth, positioning Credo Technology as a beneficiary of this expanding market.
Bullish analyst coverage
Multiple bullish theses on Credo Technology have been published on platforms like Deep Value Returns, Nikhs's Substack, and Investomine's Substack, indicating strong investor interest.
Attractive valuation upside
Analysts rate Credo Technology as a Buy with a $205 price target, representing approximately 30% upside from the April 14, 2026 close of $157.69.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CRDO Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$271.83
52W Range Position
98%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$80.60
+237.3% from the low
52-Week High
$274.90
-1.1% from the high
1 Month
+73.95%
3 Month
+167.23%
YTD
+89.8%
1 Year
+217.6%
3Y CAGR
+144.8%
5Y CAGR
+87.8%
10Y CAGR
+37.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CRDO vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
44.9x
vs 76.8x median
-42% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+17.9%
vs +18.8% median
-5% below peer median
Net Margin
31.8%
vs 17.7% median
+80% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CRD CRDO Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd | $50.1B | 44.9x | +17.9% | 31.8% | Buy | -6.7% |
MRV MRVL Marvell Technology, Inc. | $271.7B | 76.8x | +26.3% | 29.0% | Buy | -22.3% |
MTS MTSI MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. | $29.9B | 77.9x | +18.8% | 16.5% | Buy | -7.8% |
CIE CIEN Ciena Corporation | $60.6B | 65.6x | +10.5% | 7.9% | Buy | +15.2% |
LIT LITE Lumentum Holdings Inc. | $60.7B | 103.7x | +13.3% | 17.7% | Buy | +16.0% |
AVG AVGO Broadcom Inc. | $1.96T | 35.5x | +19.9% | 42.2% | Buy | +21.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsCRDO Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd (CRDO) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd (CRDO) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 15 analysts covering the stock, 13 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 2 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $254, implying -6.7% from the current price of $272. The bear case scenario is $41 and the bull case is $85.
02What is the CRDO stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CRDO is $254 based on 15 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $300 (+10.4% from today), and the low-end target is $200 (-26.4%). The base case model target is $65.
03Is Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd (CRDO) stock overvalued in 2026?
CRDO trades at 44.9x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd (CRDO) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CRDO in 2026 are: (1) Disclosed Risk Factors — Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd disclosed 65 risk factors in its most recent earnings report, indicating significant potential challenges. (2) Market Sentiment Volatility — Recent stock price surge attributed to strong earnings and positive market sentiment may not be sustainable, leading to potential volatility. (3) AI Data Center Dependence — Credo's focus on AI data center connectivity solutions exposes it to risks associated with shifts in AI market demand. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CRDO will report consensus revenue of $1.3B (+17.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.74 (-1.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $1.4B in revenue.
06When does Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd (CRDO) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for CRDO is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd generate?
Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd (CRDO) generated $284M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 26.6%. CRDO returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).