Upside case
Bull case
$68-66.0%
The bull case prices CRDO at 20x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd (CRDO) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
13
analysts
11 bullish · 0 bearish · 13 covering CRDO
Strong Buy
0
Buy
11
Hold
2
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$217
+9.5% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $68
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
13
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
60.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $36.5B
CRDO price targets
Three scenarios for where CRDO stock could go
Current
~$198
Confidence
45 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $198
Base
$198
Bull
$68
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$198+0.0%
This is close to how the market is already pricing CRDO — at roughly 60x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd
CRDO · NASDAQTechnologyCommunication EquipmentApril year-end
Credo Technology designs high-speed connectivity chips and cables for data centers and networking equipment. It generates revenue primarily from sales of integrated circuits and active electrical cables — with additional income from licensing its SerDes intellectual property. The company's competitive advantage lies in its proprietary SerDes and DSP technologies that enable energy-efficient, high-bandwidth data transmission for AI and cloud infrastructure.
Market Cap
$36.5B
Revenue TTM
$1.1B
Net Income TTM
$340M
Net Margin
31.8%
CRDO Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+64.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.35/$0.27
Revenue
$170M/$160M
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.52/$0.36
Revenue
$223M/$191M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.67/$0.49
Revenue
$268M/$235M
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.07/$0.91
Revenue
$407M/$406M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.35/$0.27 | +27.8% | $170M/$160M | +6.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.52/$0.36 | +43.9% | $223M/$191M | +17.0% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.67/$0.49 | +36.2% | $268M/$235M | +14.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.07/$0.91 | +17.3% | $407M/$406M | +0.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$1.4B
+31.9% YoY
FY2
$2.0B
+42.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.59
+42.0% YoY
FY2
$3.33
+28.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$284M
FCF Margin: 26.6%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
CRDO beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
CRDO Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $437M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Product
94.4%
+184.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
HONG KONG
55.8%
+247.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Product is the largest disclosed segment at 94.4% of FY 2025 revenue, up 184.2% YoY.
HONG KONG is the largest reported region at 55.8%, up 247.4% YoY.
CRDO Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $124 — implies -33.0% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
33.0%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CRDO
683.8x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+2610% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
CRDO
683.8x
vs
Technology
27.5x
+2388% premium
vs CRDO 5Y Avg P/E
Today
683.8x
vs
5Y Average
148.4x
+361% premium
Forward PE
60.0x
S&P 500
19.1x
+215%
Technology
21.7x
+177%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
683.8x
S&P 500
25.2x
+2610%
Technology
27.5x
+2388%
5Y Avg
148.4x
+361%
PEG Ratio
9.27x
S&P 500
1.75x
+431%
Technology
1.47x
+532%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
614.8x
S&P 500
15.3x
+3931%
Technology
17.4x
+3439%
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
1258.7x
S&P 500
21.3x
+5801%
Technology
19.8x
+6259%
5Y Avg
162.2x
+676%
Price/Sales
83.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
+2570%
Technology
2.4x
+3365%
5Y Avg
13.4x
+523%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Technology
1.18%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | CRDO | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg CRDO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 60.0x | 19.1x+215% | 21.7x+177% | — |
| Trailing PE | 683.8x | 25.2x+2610% | 27.5x+2388% | 148.4x+361% |
| PEG Ratio | 9.27x | 1.75x+431% | 1.47x+532% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 614.8x | 15.3x+3931% | 17.4x+3439% | — |
| Price/FCF | 1258.7x | 21.3x+5801% | 19.8x+6259% | 162.2x+676% |
| Price/Sales | 83.6x | 3.1x+2570% | 2.4x+3365% | 13.4x+523% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 1.18% | — |
CRDO trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCRDO Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
CRDO generates $284M in free cash flow at a 26.6% margin.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$1.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+226.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
67.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
30.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
31.8%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.82
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$284M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
26.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
5.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
26.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$236M
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$220M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
29.6%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (5.9%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
181M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageCRDO Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Customer Concentration
Credo Technology Group relies heavily on a small number of customers, with two major clients accounting for approximately 84% of total revenues for the first nine months of fiscal year 2026. This concentration exposes the company to significant risks related to customer spending shifts and potential churn.
High Risk
Valuation Concerns
CRDO's stock has seen substantial price increases, resulting in a high Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio around 92.18, significantly above the market average. This elevated valuation suggests that the stock is priced for perfection, making it vulnerable to sharp corrections if earnings expectations are not met.
Medium
Competition and Technological Obsolescence
The technology sector is marked by rapid innovation and fierce competition, with Credo facing challenges from established players like Broadcom, Marvell Technology, and Nvidia. Continuous innovation is essential for Credo to maintain its market position and prevent its core copper product line from becoming obsolete.
Medium
Insider Selling
Despite a generally positive outlook from analysts, there has been notable insider selling activity, including from the CEO and CTO. Such actions can negatively impact market perception and contribute to downward pressure on the stock.
Medium
Acquisition Integration
Credo's acquisition of DustPhotonics represents a significant financial commitment, and the successful integration of this acquisition is crucial for generating expected financial returns. There is also a risk of additional share issuance if financial milestones are achieved post-acquisition.
Medium
Market and Sector Volatility
Operating within the technology and semiconductor sectors, CRDO is susceptible to broader market trends and geopolitical events. A downturn in the optical communication sector could disproportionately affect Credo's performance.
Lower
Limited Geographic Presence
Credo's limited geographic footprint may expose it to regional market fluctuations and could restrict its growth potential. This limitation could hinder the company's ability to capitalize on emerging opportunities in diverse markets.
Lower
Shareholder Rights and Tax Implications
There are risks associated with share price volatility and potential adverse U.S. federal income tax consequences for certain U.S. persons owning 10% or more of the company's equity. These factors could impact investor sentiment and decisions.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CRDO Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strong Market Position and Growth
Credo is well-positioned to benefit from the massive data center buildout expected over the next 5-10 years. The company's products are integral to this expansion, with offerings in both copper and optical connectivity, leading to a substantial revenue growth of 201.5% year-over-year, reporting $407.01 million in Q3 FY2026.
Technological Innovation
Credo's proprietary SerDes and DSP technologies are foundational to its success. Their advancements in Linear Pluggable Optics (LPO) aim to reduce power consumption, costs, and latency in AI data centers, enhancing their competitive edge.
Strategic Acquisitions
The acquisition of DustPhotonics is a key step in developing silicon photonics, enabling future high-speed connectivity solutions like 1.6T and 3.2T. This strategic move transforms Credo into a vertically integrated optical interconnect player.
Beneficiary of Geopolitical Trends
Credo's technology, particularly its SerDes breakthroughs, positions it to benefit from U.S.-China export controls. As Chinese firms seek solutions to circumvent restrictions, U.S. hyperscalers remain key clients, providing Credo with a unique market advantage.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CRDO Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$198.29
52W Range Position
91%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$45.65
+334.4% from the low
52-Week High
$213.80
-7.3% from the high
1 Month
+93.53%
3 Month
+78.00%
YTD
+38.5%
1 Year
+316.0%
3Y CAGR
+196.9%
5Y CAGR
+76.3%
10Y CAGR
+32.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CRDO vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
60.0x
vs 69.2x median
-13% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+31.9%
vs +21.6% median
+48% above peer median
Net Margin
31.8%
vs 17.7% median
+80% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CRD CRDO Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd | $36.5B | 60.0x | +31.9% | 31.8% | Buy | +9.5% |
MRV MRVL Marvell Technology, Inc. | $149.1B | 44.9x | +29.9% | 32.6% | Buy | -24.8% |
MTS MTSI MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. | $23.2B | 69.2x | +19.8% | 15.9% | Buy | -18.0% |
CIE CIEN Ciena Corporation | $81.6B | 93.8x | +15.7% | 4.5% | Buy | -42.1% |
LIT LITE Lumentum Holdings Inc. | $67.4B | 121.0x | +21.6% | 17.7% | Buy | -31.9% |
AVG AVGO Broadcom Inc. | $2.02T | 37.6x | +38.9% | 36.6% | Buy | +4.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsCRDO Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd (CRDO) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd (CRDO) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 13 analysts covering the stock, 11 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 2 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $217, implying +9.5% from the current price of $198.
02What is the CRDO stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CRDO is $217 based on 13 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $260 (+31.1% from today), and the low-end target is $170 (-14.3%). The base case model target is $198.
03Is Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd (CRDO) stock overvalued in 2026?
CRDO trades at 60.0x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd (CRDO) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CRDO in 2026 are: (1) Customer Concentration — Credo Technology Group relies heavily on a small number of customers, with two major clients accounting for approximately 84% of total revenues for the first nine months of fiscal year 2026. (2) Valuation Concerns — CRDO's stock has seen substantial price increases, resulting in a high Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio around 92. (3) Competition and Technological Obsolescence — The technology sector is marked by rapid innovation and fierce competition, with Credo facing challenges from established players like Broadcom, Marvell Technology, and Nvidia. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CRDO will report consensus revenue of $1.4B (+31.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.59 (+42.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $2.0B in revenue.
06When does Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd (CRDO) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for CRDO is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd generate?
Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd (CRDO) generated $284M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 26.6%. CRDO returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).