Upside case
Bull case
$30+8.4%
CUK would need investors to value it at roughly 13x earnings — about 1x more generous than today's 12x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Carnival Corporation & plc (CUK) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
36
analysts
19 bullish · 4 bearish · 36 covering CUK
Strong Buy
0
Buy
19
Hold
13
Sell
4
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
—
— vs today
Scenario Range
$14 – $30
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
36
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
12.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $38.5B
CUK price targets
Three scenarios for where CUK stock could go
Current
~$27
Confidence
51 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $27
Bear
$14
Base
$23
Bull
$30
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$23-17.7%
At 10x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$14-48.2%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 6x multiple contraction could push CUK down roughly 48% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Carnival Corporation & plc
CUK · NYSEConsumer CyclicalLeisureNovember year-end
Carnival Corporation & plc is the world's largest cruise operator, running a fleet of cruise ships under multiple brands including Carnival Cruise Line, Princess Cruises, and Holland America Line. It generates revenue primarily from passenger ticket sales—which account for roughly 70% of total revenue—and onboard spending on dining, beverages, excursions, and entertainment. The company's key competitive advantage is its massive scale and brand portfolio, which creates cost efficiencies in ship operations and marketing while offering diverse cruise experiences across different price points and demographics.
Market Cap
$38.5B
Revenue TTM
$26.6B
Net Income TTM
$2.8B
Net Margin
10.4%
CUK Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+133.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q1 2026
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.35/$0.25
Revenue
$2.1B/$8.1B
Q3 2025
EPS
$1.43/$1.32
Revenue
$8.2B/$6.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.30/$0.18
Revenue
$6.3B/$6.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.20/$0.18
Revenue
$6.2B/$6.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.35/$0.25 | +42.0% | $2.1B/$8.1B | -73.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.43/$1.32 | +8.3% | $8.2B/$6.4B | +28.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.30/$0.18 | +62.6% | $6.3B/$6.1B | +3.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.20/$0.18 | +8.4% | $6.2B/$6.1B | +0.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$29.2B
+9.7% YoY
FY2
$30.7B
+5.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.77
-10.0% YoY
FY2
$1.66
-6.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.6B
FCF Margin: 9.8%
Next Earnings
June 23, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.33
Expected Revenue
$6.7B
CUK beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
CUK Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $26.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Cruise Passenger Ticket
65.4%
+5.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
63.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Cruise Passenger Ticket is the largest disclosed segment at 65.4% of FY 2025 revenue, up 5.8% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 63.0%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
CUK Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $34 — implies +24.6% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
24.6%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CUK
13.6x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
44% discount
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
CUK
13.6x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
36% discount
vs CUK 5Y Avg P/E
Today
13.6x
vs
5Y Average
13.9x
In line with benchmark
Forward PE
12.4x
S&P 500
18.8x
-34%
Consumer Cyclical
16.3x
-24%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
13.6x
S&P 500
24.4x
-44%
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
-36%
5Y Avg
13.9x
-2%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Consumer Cyclical
0.92x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
8.9x
S&P 500
15.2x
-42%
Consumer Cyclical
12.2x
-27%
5Y Avg
9.6x
-7%
Price/FCF
14.8x
S&P 500
20.7x
-29%
Consumer Cyclical
15.6x
-5%
5Y Avg
18.2x
-19%
Price/Sales
1.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
-53%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+107%
5Y Avg
2.7x
-47%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Consumer Cyclical
2.17%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | CUK | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg CUK |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 12.4x | 18.8x-34% | 16.3x-24% | — |
| Trailing PE | 13.6x | 24.4x-44% | 21.2x-36% | 13.9x |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.92x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.9x | 15.2x-42% | 12.2x-27% | 9.6x |
| Price/FCF | 14.8x | 20.7x-29% | 15.6x | 18.2x-19% |
| Price/Sales | 1.4x | 3.1x-53% | 0.7x+107% | 2.7x-47% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 2.17% | — |
CUK trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCUK Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
CUK generates $2.6B in free cash flow at a 9.8% margin.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$26.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+6.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
37.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
16.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
10.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.97
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$2.6B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
9.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
8.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
5.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.9B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$26.1B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
10.0× FCF
~10.0 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
22.5%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (8.9%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
1.4B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageCUK Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Fuel price volatility
Near-term headwinds from fuel price volatility could pressure margins despite strong operational performance.
High Risk
Geopolitical uncertainties
Geopolitical risks may disrupt operations or consumer demand in key cruise markets.
Medium
Valuation disconnect
Despite DCF suggesting significant upside, market price reflects skepticism about growth or external risks.
Medium
Stock price pressure
External factors have caused recent stock pressure even as fundamentals improve.
Lower
Competitive market share
Maintaining 45% market share requires continuous innovation and capital expenditure amid rising competition.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CUK Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Undervalued stock potential
Carnival Corporation appears undervalued with a DCF intrinsic value of $56.39 compared to the current market price of $27.30, suggesting significant upside potential.
Strong market position
As the world's largest leisure travel company with a fleet of 94 ships across nine brands, Carnival operates an unmatched multi-brand strategy with 13.5 million guests carried in FY2024.
Attractive valuation metrics
Carnival shares trade at a P/E ratio of 14.7, representing a substantial discount to the S&P 500's multiple of 25.7, making it an attractive investment opportunity.
Positive analyst forecasts
Analyst price targets for Carnival range up to $43.00 with an average of $35.45, indicating confidence in future growth potential from current price levels.
Fleet modernization and expansion
Carnival is continuously adding fresh experiences to its ships, including new dining spots, bars, sports activities, and spa offerings, enhancing customer appeal and revenue potential.
Diverse global destinations
With cruises to popular destinations like the Caribbean, Bahamas, Alaska, Mexico, and emerging markets like India and South Africa, Carnival offers broad geographic diversification.
Strong booking platform
Carnival provides a convenient online cruise search and booking system, allowing customers to easily find and book cruises based on various preferences, supporting revenue growth.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CUK Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$27.47
52W Range Position
53%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$20.40
+34.7% from the low
52-Week High
$33.72
-18.5% from the high
1 Month
—
3 Month
+13.79%
YTD
-10.5%
1 Year
+28.9%
3Y CAGR
+24.2%
5Y CAGR
+2.6%
10Y CAGR
-5.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CUK vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
12.4x
vs 18.0x median
-31% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+9.7%
vs +7.8% median
+25% above peer median
Net Margin
10.4%
vs 10.4% median
0% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CUK CUK Carnival Corporation & plc | $38.5B | 12.4x | +9.7% | 10.4% | Buy | — |
RCL RCL Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. | $84.5B | 18.0x | +9.0% | 24.4% | Buy | +10.4% |
NCL NCLH Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. | $9.4B | 12.5x | +7.1% | 5.7% | Buy | +4.6% |
CCL CCL Carnival Corporation & plc | $38.2B | 13.9x | +8.2% | 10.4% | Buy | +14.5% |
HLT HLT Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. | $79.4B | 38.6x | +7.8% | 12.6% | Buy | -1.9% |
MAR MAR Marriott International, Inc. | $104.5B | 34.2x | +6.1% | 9.7% | Hold | -0.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
CUK Dividend and Capital Return
CUK does not currently return meaningful capital to shareholders.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.15
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
3.6%
5Y Div CAGR
10.8%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Annual
1 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.4B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.15 | — | — | — |
| 2020 | $0.50 | -75.0% | 0.1% | 5.1% |
| 2019 | $2.00 | +2.6% | 2.0% | 6.8% |
| 2018 | $1.95 | +21.9% | 3.5% | 6.7% |
| 2017 | $1.60 | -5.9% | 1.2% | 3.4% |
FAQ
6 questionsCUK Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Carnival Corporation & plc (CUK) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Carnival Corporation & plc (CUK) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 36 analysts covering the stock, 19 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 13 rate it Hold, and 4 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The bear case scenario is $14 and the bull case is $30.
02Is Carnival Corporation & plc (CUK) stock overvalued in 2026?
CUK trades at 12.4x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
03What are the main risks for Carnival Corporation & plc (CUK) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CUK in 2026 are: (1) Fuel price volatility — Near-term headwinds from fuel price volatility could pressure margins despite strong operational performance. (2) Geopolitical uncertainties — Geopolitical risks may disrupt operations or consumer demand in key cruise markets. (3) Valuation disconnect — Despite DCF suggesting significant upside, market price reflects skepticism about growth or external risks. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
04What is Carnival Corporation & plc's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CUK will report consensus revenue of $29.2B (+9.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.77 (-10.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $30.7B in revenue.
05When does Carnival Corporation & plc (CUK) report its next earnings?
Carnival Corporation & plc is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-06-23. Consensus expects EPS of $0.33 and revenue of $6.7B. Over recent quarters, CUK has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time.
06How much free cash flow does Carnival Corporation & plc generate?
Carnival Corporation & plc (CUK) generated $2.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 9.8%. CUK returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).