Upside case
Bull case
$75+12.8%
CVNA would need investors to value it at roughly 49x earnings — about 6x more generous than today's 43x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Carvana Co. (CVNA) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
45
analysts
21 bullish · 3 bearish · 45 covering CVNA
Strong Buy
0
Buy
21
Hold
21
Sell
2
Strong Sell
1
Consensus Target
$334
+401.3% vs today
Scenario Range
$36 – $75
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
45
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
43.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $72.1B
CVNA price targets
Three scenarios for where CVNA stock could go
Current
~$67
Confidence
65 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $67
Bear
$36
Base
$57
Bull
$75
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$57-14.4%
At 37x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$36-46.1%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 20x multiple contraction could push CVNA down roughly 46% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Carvana Co.
CVNA · NYSEConsumer CyclicalSpecialty RetailDecember year-end
Carvana is an online-only used car retailer that sells vehicles directly to consumers through its e-commerce platform. It makes money primarily from vehicle sales — which account for over 90% of revenue — with additional income from financing, warranty products, and vehicle service contracts. Its key advantage is a vertically integrated model that controls the entire customer experience, from acquisition to reconditioning to delivery, bypassing traditional dealership infrastructure.
Market Cap
$72.1B
Revenue TTM
$22.5B
Net Income TTM
$1.6B
Net Margin
7.1%
CVNA Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+52.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.26/$0.23
Revenue
$4.8B/$4.6B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.21/$0.27
Revenue
$5.6B/$5.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.84/$0.23
Revenue
$5.6B/$5.3B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.34/$0.32
Revenue
$6.4B/$6.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.26/$0.23 | +11.4% | $4.8B/$4.6B | +5.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.21/$0.27 | -22.2% | $5.6B/$5.1B | +10.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.84/$0.23 | +265.2% | $5.6B/$5.3B | +6.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.34/$0.32 | +7.4% | $6.4B/$6.1B | +5.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$26.4B
+17.2% YoY
FY2
$31.5B
+19.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.39
-35.4% YoY
FY2
$1.50
+7.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$740M
FCF Margin: 3.3%
Next Earnings
July 29, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.42
Expected Revenue
$6.8B
CVNA beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
CVNA Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $16.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Used Vehicle Sales
89.3%
+50.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Used Vehicle Sales is the largest disclosed segment at 89.3% of FY 2025 revenue, up 50.2% YoY.
CVNA Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $23 — implies -65.0% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
65.0%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CVNA
39.4x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+61% premium
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
CVNA
39.4x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
+86% premium
vs CVNA 5Y Avg P/E
Today
39.4x
vs
5Y Average
82.8x
52% discount
Forward PE
43.2x
S&P 500
18.8x
+130%
Consumer Cyclical
16.3x
+165%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
39.4x
S&P 500
24.4x
+61%
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
+86%
5Y Avg
82.8x
-52%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Consumer Cyclical
0.92x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
32.7x
S&P 500
15.2x
+115%
Consumer Cyclical
12.2x
+168%
5Y Avg
42.9x
-24%
Price/FCF
81.1x
S&P 500
20.7x
+292%
Consumer Cyclical
15.6x
+421%
5Y Avg
51.3x
+58%
Price/Sales
3.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
+15%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+409%
5Y Avg
1.8x
+94%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Consumer Cyclical
2.17%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | CVNA | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg CVNA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 43.2x | 18.8x+130% | 16.3x+165% | — |
| Trailing PE | 39.4x | 24.4x+61% | 21.2x+86% | 82.8x-52% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.92x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 32.7x | 15.2x+115% | 12.2x+168% | 42.9x-24% |
| Price/FCF | 81.1x | 20.7x+292% | 15.6x+421% | 51.3x+58% |
| Price/Sales | 3.5x | 3.1x+15% | 0.7x+409% | 1.8x+94% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 2.17% | — |
CVNA trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCVNA Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
CVNA 34.3% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$22.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+51.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
20.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
9.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
7.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.16
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$740M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
3.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
34.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
13.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.3B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$1.7B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
45.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
1.1B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageCVNA Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Execution risk
Carvana's ambitious growth target of 3 million units over 5-10 years, from a base of 600,000, poses significant execution challenges in inspection, logistics, and inventory density.
High Risk
Headline risk
Carvana's stock fell 12% following a short report and a price target cut by BofA, indicating vulnerability to negative sentiment and analyst downgrades.
Medium
Market competition
As an online used car retailer, Carvana faces intense competition in a crowded market, which could pressure margins and growth.
Medium
Valuation concerns
Despite strong recent performance, the stock's rally and high growth expectations may lead to valuation de-rating if execution falters.
Lower
Macroeconomic sensitivity
Carvana's performance is tied to the used car market recovery, which could be impacted by broader economic conditions.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CVNA Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Vertically integrated e-commerce model
Carvana's vertically integrated model streamlines the online used car buying process, offering efficiency and cost advantages.
Strong financing capabilities
The company provides instant, personalized financing options, enhancing customer convenience and purchase completion rates.
Strategic pivot to profitability
Carvana has demonstrated a strategic shift toward profitability, evidenced by recent financial performance and stock appreciation.
Rapid revenue and unit growth
The company reported a 40% year-over-year increase in retail units and $6.43 billion revenue in Q1 2026, signaling strong demand.
Convenient online buying experience
Carvana's platform allows customers to browse, finance, and receive vehicle delivery seamlessly, often with next-day service.
Insurance integration with Root
The partnership with Root offers quick, customized insurance options, adding value and convenience to the car-buying process.
Expanding market recognition
Carvana's inclusion in the Fortune 500 as one of the youngest companies highlights its rapid growth and industry impact.
Analyst and investor optimism
Recent price-target hikes and a 27% stock rally in April 2026 reflect strong earnings and bullish sentiment.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CVNA Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$66.55
52W Range Position
3%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$54.46
+22.2% from the low
52-Week High
$486.68
-86.3% from the high
1 Month
+0.80%
3 Month
+14.29%
YTD
-16.9%
1 Year
+8.1%
3Y CAGR
+141.9%
5Y CAGR
+2.5%
10Y CAGR
+40.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CVNA vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
43.2x
vs 19.5x median
+122% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+17.2%
vs +7.0% median
+146% above peer median
Net Margin
7.1%
vs 0.8% median
+739% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CVN CVNA Carvana Co. | $72.1B | 43.2x | +17.2% | 7.1% | Buy | +401.3% |
VRM VRM Vroom, Inc. | $53M | — | -19.9% | -123.2% | — | — |
CPR CPRT Copart, Inc. | $28.0B | 19.1x | +9.4% | 33.5% | Buy | +53.8% |
KMX KMX CarMax, Inc. | $7.6B | 19.9x | +2.3% | 0.8% | Hold | -13.2% |
ACV ACVA ACV Auctions Inc. | $1.1B | 31.3x | +11.2% | -8.0% | Buy | +28.5% |
AN AN AutoNation, Inc. | $6.5B | 8.8x | +7.0% | 2.5% | Buy | +23.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsCVNA Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Carvana Co. (CVNA) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Carvana Co. (CVNA) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 45 analysts covering the stock, 21 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 21 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $334, implying +401.3% from the current price of $67. The bear case scenario is $36 and the bull case is $75.
02What is the CVNA stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CVNA is $334 based on 45 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $537 (+706.9% from today), and the low-end target is $88 (+32.2%). The base case model target is $57.
03Is Carvana Co. (CVNA) stock overvalued in 2026?
CVNA trades at 43.2x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Carvana Co. (CVNA) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CVNA in 2026 are: (1) Execution risk — Carvana's ambitious growth target of 3 million units over 5-10 years, from a base of 600,000, poses significant execution challenges in inspection, logistics, and inventory density. (2) Headline risk — Carvana's stock fell 12% following a short report and a price target cut by BofA, indicating vulnerability to negative sentiment and analyst downgrades. (3) Market competition — As an online used car retailer, Carvana faces intense competition in a crowded market, which could pressure margins and growth. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Carvana Co.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CVNA will report consensus revenue of $26.4B (+17.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.39 (-35.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $31.5B in revenue.
06When does Carvana Co. (CVNA) report its next earnings?
Carvana Co. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-29. Consensus expects EPS of $0.42 and revenue of $6.8B. Over recent quarters, CVNA has beaten EPS estimates 67% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Carvana Co. generate?
Carvana Co. (CVNA) generated $740M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 3.3%. CVNA returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).