Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing CVNA more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Carvana Co. (CVNA) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
44
analysts
20 bullish · 3 bearish · 44 covering CVNA
Strong Buy
0
Buy
20
Hold
21
Sell
2
Strong Sell
1
Consensus Target
$484
+24.3% vs today
Scenario Range
$528 – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
44
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
50.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $84.4B
CVNA price targets
Three scenarios for where CVNA stock could go
Current
~$389
Confidence
63 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $389
Bear
$528
Base
$483
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$483+24.2%
At 62x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$528+35.5%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push CVNA down roughly 36% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Carvana Co.
CVNA · NYSEConsumer CyclicalSpecialty RetailDecember year-end
Carvana is an online-only used car retailer that sells vehicles directly to consumers through its e-commerce platform. It makes money primarily from vehicle sales — which account for over 90% of revenue — with additional income from financing, warranty products, and vehicle service contracts. Its key advantage is a vertically integrated model that controls the entire customer experience, from acquisition to reconditioning to delivery, bypassing traditional dealership infrastructure.
Market Cap
$84.4B
Revenue TTM
$22.5B
Net Income TTM
$1.6B
Net Margin
7.1%
CVNA Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+95.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.28/$1.17
Revenue
$4.8B/$4.6B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.03/$1.30
Revenue
$5.6B/$5.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$4.22/$1.14
Revenue
$5.6B/$5.3B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.69/$1.58
Revenue
$6.4B/$6.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.28/$1.17 | +9.4% | $4.8B/$4.6B | +5.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.03/$1.30 | -20.8% | $5.6B/$5.1B | +10.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.22/$1.14 | +270.2% | $5.6B/$5.3B | +6.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.69/$1.58 | +7.0% | $6.4B/$6.1B | +5.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$27.8B
+23.6% YoY
FY2
$34.9B
+25.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$8.32
-22.8% YoY
FY2
$10.49
+26.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$740M
FCF Margin: 3.3%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
CVNA beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
CVNA Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $16.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Used Vehicle Sales
89.3%
+50.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Used Vehicle Sales is the largest disclosed segment at 89.3% of FY 2025 revenue, up 50.2% YoY.
CVNA Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $4935 — implies +1189.9% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
1189.9%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CVNA
46.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+83% premium
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
CVNA
46.1x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
+135% premium
vs CVNA 5Y Avg P/E
Today
46.1x
vs
5Y Average
82.8x
44% discount
Forward PE
50.0x
S&P 500
19.1x
+162%
Consumer Cyclical
15.2x
+229%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
46.1x
S&P 500
25.2x
+83%
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
+135%
5Y Avg
82.8x
-44%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Consumer Cyclical
0.95x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
38.4x
S&P 500
15.3x
+152%
Consumer Cyclical
11.4x
+238%
5Y Avg
42.9x
-11%
Price/FCF
95.0x
S&P 500
21.3x
+345%
Consumer Cyclical
15.0x
+533%
5Y Avg
51.3x
+85%
Price/Sales
4.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
+33%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+484%
5Y Avg
1.8x
+127%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Consumer Cyclical
2.15%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | CVNA | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg CVNA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 50.0x | 19.1x+162% | 15.2x+229% | — |
| Trailing PE | 46.1x | 25.2x+83% | 19.6x+135% | 82.8x-44% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 0.95x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 38.4x | 15.3x+152% | 11.4x+238% | 42.9x-11% |
| Price/FCF | 95.0x | 21.3x+345% | 15.0x+533% | 51.3x+85% |
| Price/Sales | 4.2x | 3.1x+33% | 0.7x+484% | 1.8x+127% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 2.15% | — |
CVNA trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCVNA Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
CVNA 34.3% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$22.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+51.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
20.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
9.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
7.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$10.78
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$740M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
3.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
34.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
13.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.3B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$1.7B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
45.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
217M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageCVNA Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Debt Burden & Refinancing Risk
Carvana’s balance sheet is heavily leveraged, amplified by the acquisition of Adesa. The company’s interest expense is significant, and any tightening of credit markets could force refinancing at higher rates or restrict access to new capital, directly impacting profitability.
High Risk
Subprime Loan Exposure
Carvana’s model depends heavily on customer financing, with a large portion of loans classified as subprime. Rising delinquencies in the subprime auto loan market would erode revenue and increase provisioning, threatening the company’s earnings.
High Risk
Accounting & Profit Sustainability
A sizable share of Carvana’s reported profit comes from gains on the sale of customer auto loans. Concerns about the transparency and sustainability of these gains, including allegations of inflated values, raise the risk of future earnings volatility.
High Risk
Earnings Quality & Disclosure
Short‑seller reports have highlighted potential accounting irregularities, undisclosed financial dependencies, and related‑party transactions that may overstate earnings. These issues undermine confidence in the quality of reported profits.
High Risk
Litigation & Compliance Risk
Carvana has faced regulatory actions such as license suspensions and ongoing securities litigation and consumer class actions. These proceedings could result in significant financial exposure and reputational damage.
Medium
Market Expectation & Growth Pressure
The stock trades at elevated valuation multiples (P/E, P/S), implying near‑perfect execution and sustained high growth. Failure to meet these expectations could trigger sharp corrections in the share price.
Medium
Price Swing & Beta Risk
Carvana’s shares exhibit high volatility and a high beta, indicating that the stock can experience significant price swings relative to the market. This increases the risk of large unrealized losses for investors.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CVNA Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Vertical Integration Advantage
Carvana's vertically integrated e-commerce model spans reconditioning, logistics, wholesale, and financing, giving it a competitive edge. This integration enables end‑to‑end control over the used‑car supply chain and reduces reliance on third parties.
Scale‑Driven Profitability
The company has moved past early financial challenges and now operates at a significant scale with a broad logistics network. Analysts note that this scale is being converted into durable profits and a larger market share.
AI‑Powered Cost Efficiency
Carvana leverages AI to drive cost efficiencies across operations. Improvements in financing, ancillary attach rates, loan performance, and funding costs, along with SG&A efficiency, are contributing to profitability.
Expanded Total Addressable Market
Recent acquisitions of new‑car dealerships have broadened Carvana's total addressable market beyond used vehicles. This expansion opens new growth avenues and diversifies revenue sources.
Strengthened Balance Sheet
The company's debt has decreased, strengthening its financial position. A stronger balance sheet supports future growth initiatives and operational flexibility.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CVNA Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$389.38
52W Range Position
58%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$253.49
+53.6% from the low
52-Week High
$486.89
-20.0% from the high
1 Month
+22.97%
3 Month
-3.54%
YTD
-2.7%
1 Year
+50.5%
3Y CAGR
+225.4%
5Y CAGR
+8.1%
10Y CAGR
+42.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CVNA vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
50.0x
vs 17.9x median
+179% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+23.6%
vs +2.8% median
+758% above peer median
Net Margin
7.1%
vs 1.7% median
+324% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CVN CVNA Carvana Co. | $84.4B | 50.0x | +23.6% | 7.1% | Hold | +24.3% |
VRM VRM Vroom, Inc. | $62M | — | -30.0% | -2770.8% | — | — |
CPR CPRT Copart, Inc. | $32.3B | 21.2x | +7.7% | 33.8% | Buy | +21.3% |
KMX KMX CarMax, Inc. | $5.6B | 14.6x | -2.8% | 1.7% | Hold | -4.2% |
ACV ACVA ACV Auctions Inc. | $909M | 27.0x | +19.3% | -8.0% | Buy | +72.4% |
AN AN AutoNation, Inc. | $7.0B | 9.7x | +2.8% | 2.5% | Buy | +21.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsCVNA Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Carvana Co. (CVNA) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Carvana Co. (CVNA) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 44 analysts covering the stock, 20 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 21 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $484, implying +24.3% from the current price of $389.
02What is the CVNA stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CVNA is $484 based on 44 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $600 (+54.1% from today), and the low-end target is $320 (-17.8%). The base case model target is $483.
03Is Carvana Co. (CVNA) stock overvalued in 2026?
CVNA trades at 50.0x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Carvana Co. (CVNA) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CVNA in 2026 are: (1) Debt Burden & Refinancing Risk — Carvana’s balance sheet is heavily leveraged, amplified by the acquisition of Adesa. (2) Subprime Loan Exposure — Carvana’s model depends heavily on customer financing, with a large portion of loans classified as subprime. (3) Accounting & Profit Sustainability — A sizable share of Carvana’s reported profit comes from gains on the sale of customer auto loans. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Carvana Co.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CVNA will report consensus revenue of $27.8B (+23.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $8.32 (-22.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $34.9B in revenue.
06When does Carvana Co. (CVNA) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for CVNA is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Carvana Co. generate?
Carvana Co. (CVNA) generated $740M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 3.3%. CVNA returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).