Upside case
Bull case
$112+139.9%
DVN would need investors to value it at roughly 21x earnings — about 12x more generous than today's 9x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
64
analysts
45 bullish · 0 bearish · 64 covering DVN
Strong Buy
0
Buy
45
Hold
19
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$54
+15.4% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $112
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
64
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
8.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $29.0B
DVN price targets
Three scenarios for where DVN stock could go
Current
~$47
Confidence
43 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $47
Base
$60
Bull
$112
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$60+28.4%
At 11x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Devon Energy Corporation
DVN · NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionDecember year-end
Devon Energy is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company focused on U.S. onshore basins. It generates revenue primarily from crude oil sales (roughly 60% of total), with natural gas and natural gas liquids making up the remainder. The company's competitive advantage lies in its high-quality, low-cost asset portfolio concentrated in premier U.S. shale plays like the Delaware Basin.
Market Cap
$29.0B
Revenue TTM
$12.2B
Net Income TTM
$2.1B
Net Margin
17.6%
DVN Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+4.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$1.21/$1.24
Revenue
$4.5B/$4.4B
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.84/$0.86
Revenue
$4.0B/$4.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.04/$0.93
Revenue
$4.3B/$4.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.82/$0.81
Revenue
$4.1B/$4.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $1.21/$1.24 | -2.4% | $4.5B/$4.4B | +0.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.84/$0.86 | -2.8% | $4.0B/$4.0B | +0.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.04/$0.93 | +11.8% | $4.3B/$4.1B | +2.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.82/$0.81 | +1.6% | $4.1B/$4.0B | +2.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$20.2B
+21.7% YoY
FY2
$21.9B
+8.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$5.03
+18.4% YoY
FY2
$5.39
+7.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.1B
FCF Margin: 16.8%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
DVN beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
DVN Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $11.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
N G L Product Sales
100.0%
+0.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
N G L Product Sales is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 0.4% YoY.
DVN Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $67 — implies +33.4% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
33.4%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
DVN
11.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
56% discount
vs Energy Trailing P/E
DVN
11.1x
vs
Energy
16.9x
34% discount
vs DVN 5Y Avg P/E
Today
11.1x
vs
5Y Average
8.2x
+36% premium
Forward PE
8.9x
S&P 500
19.1x
-54%
Energy
13.2x
-33%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
11.1x
S&P 500
25.2x
-56%
Energy
16.9x
-34%
5Y Avg
8.2x
+36%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Energy
0.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
4.9x
S&P 500
15.3x
-68%
Energy
8.1x
-40%
5Y Avg
4.4x
+12%
Price/FCF
9.3x
S&P 500
21.3x
-56%
Energy
14.1x
-34%
5Y Avg
10.1x
-8%
Price/Sales
1.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
-46%
Energy
1.6x
+8%
5Y Avg
1.7x
-3%
Dividend Yield
2.11%
S&P 500
1.88%
+12%
Energy
2.97%
-29%
5Y Avg
5.31%
-60%
| Metric | DVN | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg DVN |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 8.9x | 19.1x-54% | 13.2x-33% | — |
| Trailing PE | 11.1x | 25.2x-56% | 16.9x-34% | 8.2x+36% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 0.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.9x | 15.3x-68% | 8.1x-40% | 4.4x+12% |
| Price/FCF | 9.3x | 21.3x-56% | 14.1x-34% | 10.1x |
| Price/Sales | 1.7x | 3.1x-46% | 1.6x | 1.7x |
| Dividend Yield | 2.11% | 1.88% | 2.97% | 5.31% |
DVN trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolDVN Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
DVN generates $2.1B in free cash flow at a 16.8% margin — 12.3% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 5.7% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$12.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-26.0%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
21.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
18.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
17.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
—
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$2.1B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
16.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
12.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
9.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.4B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$7.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
3.6× FCF
~3.6 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
18.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.7%
Dividend
2.1%
Buyback
3.6%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.1B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.98
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
23.4%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
621M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageDVN Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Commodity Price Volatility
Devon’s revenue and profitability are highly sensitive to fluctuations in oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGL) prices. Global inventory levels, regional pricing differences, and shifts in domestic and international policies can significantly influence these prices, potentially eroding margins during downturns.
High Risk
High Decline Rates
Unconventional oil and gas assets exhibit high decline rates, requiring continuous and costly exploration and development to maintain production levels. Failure to offset these declines can reduce output and revenue, impacting cash flow and valuation.
Medium
Reserve Estimate Revisions
Changes to reserve estimates can adversely affect the company’s financial condition and valuation. Unfavorable revisions may lead to write‑downs and reduced future production forecasts.
Medium
Integration Risks
The potential merger with Coterra introduces integration execution risks, which could lead to higher costs or slower capital allocation decisions. Delays or inefficiencies in the integration process may affect operational performance and shareholder value.
Medium
Regulatory Compliance Costs
Stricter environmental regulations and shareholder activism concerning greenhouse gas emissions could lead to additional operational costs. Compliance expenses may increase, squeezing operating margins.
Lower
Capital Intensity & Leverage
The oil and gas industry is capital‑intensive, requiring significant investment to find and acquire new reserves. Devon’s debt‑to‑equity ratio is considered somewhat elevated compared to peers, which could strain balance sheet strength during periods of low commodity prices.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why DVN Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Merger with Coterra
The all‑stock merger with Coterra is projected to create a larger shale giant with a leading position in key basins. It is expected to deliver approximately $1 billion in annual pre‑tax synergies by 2027, establishing a valuation floor for DVN.
Enhanced Capital Returns
Post‑merger, DVN is slated to raise its dividend by 31% and launch a $5 billion share buyback program. These actions are expected to boost per‑share earnings and overall capital returns.
Financial Performance
DVN has posted an 8% year‑over‑year revenue growth in recent earnings, coupled with robust free cash flow generation. This strong financial footing supports its growth and dividend expansion plans.
Valuation Gap
DVN’s current P/E ratio is significantly lower than the S&P 500 average and many industry peers, indicating a potential undervaluation. The earnings multiple suggests a valuation gap that could be attractive to investors.
Analyst Optimism
Many analysts have upgraded DVN’s price targets, with some projecting upside to around $60 or higher. The stock currently enjoys a “Strong Buy” consensus rating from several analysts.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
DVN Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$46.60
52W Range Position
73%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$29.70
+56.9% from the low
52-Week High
$52.71
-11.6% from the high
1 Month
-6.14%
3 Month
+6.37%
YTD
+23.1%
1 Year
+52.3%
3Y CAGR
-3.0%
5Y CAGR
+13.0%
10Y CAGR
+4.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
DVN vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
8.9x
vs 9.4x median
-6% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+21.7%
vs +7.9% median
+173% above peer median
Net Margin
17.6%
vs 14.1% median
+24% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DVN DVN Devon Energy Corporation | $29.0B | 8.9x | +21.7% | 17.6% | Buy | +15.4% |
COP COP ConocoPhillips | $144.9B | 13.8x | +8.9% | 12.6% | Buy | +6.9% |
EOG EOG EOG Resources, Inc. | $72.2B | 9.4x | +7.9% | 23.4% | Buy | +2.4% |
APA APA APA Corporation | $13.5B | 7.0x | -2.2% | 16.1% | Hold | -15.2% |
FAN FANG Diamondback Energy, Inc. | $54.9B | 10.9x | +15.8% | 2.7% | Buy | +3.2% |
OVV OVV Ovintiv Inc. | $15.2B | 7.7x | -0.5% | 14.1% | Buy | -6.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
DVN Dividend and Capital Return
DVN returns capital mainly through $1.1B/year in buybacks (3.6% buyback yield), with a modest 2.11% dividend — combining for 5.7% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
5.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.6%
Dividend Yield
2.11%
Payout Ratio
23.4%
How DVN Splits Its Return
Div 2.11%
Buyback 3.6%
Dividend 2.11%Buybacks 3.6%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.98
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
-42.9%
5Y Div CAGR
7.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.1B
Estimated Shares Retired
23M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.6%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
621M
At 3.6%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.24 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.96 | -33.8% | 4.6% | 7.2% |
| 2024 | $1.45 | -49.5% | 5.2% | 9.8% |
| 2023 | $2.87 | -44.5% | 3.4% | 9.8% |
| 2022 | $5.17 | +162.4% | 1.8% | 10.2% |
FAQ
7 questionsDVN Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 64 analysts covering the stock, 45 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 19 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $54, implying +15.4% from the current price of $47.
02What is the DVN stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for DVN is $54 based on 64 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $66 (+41.6% from today), and the low-end target is $42 (-9.9%). The base case model target is $60.
03Is Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) stock overvalued in 2026?
DVN trades at 8.9x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for DVN in 2026 are: (1) Commodity Price Volatility — Devon’s revenue and profitability are highly sensitive to fluctuations in oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGL) prices. (2) High Decline Rates — Unconventional oil and gas assets exhibit high decline rates, requiring continuous and costly exploration and development to maintain production levels. (3) Reserve Estimate Revisions — Changes to reserve estimates can adversely affect the company’s financial condition and valuation. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Devon Energy Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates DVN will report consensus revenue of $20.2B (+21.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $5.03 (+18.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $21.9B in revenue.
06When does Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for DVN is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Devon Energy Corporation generate?
Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) generated $2.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 16.8%. DVN returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.1% yield) and share repurchases ($1.1B TTM).