Upside case
Bull case
$187+73.9%
COP would need investors to value it at roughly 18x earnings — about 8x more generous than today's 11x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
ConocoPhillips (COP) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
52
analysts
38 bullish · 3 bearish · 52 covering COP
Strong Buy
1
Buy
37
Hold
11
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$133
+23.4% vs today
Scenario Range
$90 – $187
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
52
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
10.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $131.3B
COP price targets
Three scenarios for where COP stock could go
Current
~$108
Confidence
46 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $108
Bear
$90
Base
$142
Bull
$187
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$142+32.0%
At 14x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$90-16.8%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 2x multiple contraction could push COP down roughly 17% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
ConocoPhillips
COP · NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionDecember year-end
ConocoPhillips is a global independent exploration and production company that finds, produces, and sells crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. It generates revenue primarily from selling hydrocarbons produced from its diverse portfolio — including unconventional shale plays in North America, conventional assets worldwide, and oil sands in Canada — with no refining or marketing operations. The company's competitive advantage lies in its low-cost position, large-scale resource base, and operational expertise across multiple geographies and resource types.
Market Cap
$131.3B
Revenue TTM
$58.3B
Net Income TTM
$7.3B
Net Margin
12.6%
COP Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
33%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+5.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.42/$1.35
Revenue
$14.0B/$14.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.61/$1.41
Revenue
$15.0B/$14.6B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.02/$1.07
Revenue
$14.2B/$13.9B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.89/$1.72
Revenue
$16.1B/$15.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.42/$1.35 | +5.2% | $14.0B/$14.7B | -4.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.61/$1.41 | +14.2% | $15.0B/$14.6B | +2.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.02/$1.07 | -4.7% | $14.2B/$13.9B | +1.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.89/$1.72 | +9.9% | $16.1B/$15.6B | +2.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$62.9B
+7.8% YoY
FY2
$66.1B
+5.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$7.89
+32.0% YoY
FY2
$7.72
-2.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$18.3B
FCF Margin: 31.4%
Next Earnings
August 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.95
Expected Revenue
$18.9B
COP beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
COP Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $51.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Crude oil product line
75.7%
+0.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Lower 48
68.0%
-4.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Crude oil product line is the largest disclosed segment at 75.7% of FY 2025 revenue, up 0.1% YoY.
Lower 48 is the largest reported region at 68.0%, down 4.8% YoY.
COP Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $96 — implies -10.5% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
10.5%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
COP
17.0x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
31% discount
vs Energy Trailing P/E
COP
17.0x
vs
Energy
15.5x
+10% premium
vs COP 5Y Avg P/E
Today
17.0x
vs
5Y Average
12.0x
+41% premium
Forward PE
10.6x
S&P 500
18.8x
-44%
Energy
12.5x
-15%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
17.0x
S&P 500
24.4x
-31%
Energy
15.5x
+10%
5Y Avg
12.0x
+41%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Energy
0.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
6.4x
S&P 500
15.2x
-58%
Energy
7.8x
-18%
5Y Avg
5.8x
+11%
Price/FCF
7.8x
S&P 500
20.7x
-62%
Energy
13.8x
-43%
5Y Avg
10.8x
-28%
Price/Sales
2.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
-28%
Energy
1.4x
+58%
5Y Avg
2.1x
+5%
Dividend Yield
2.96%
S&P 500
1.91%
+55%
Energy
3.47%
-15%
5Y Avg
3.35%
-12%
| Metric | COP | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg COP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 10.6x | 18.8x-44% | 12.5x-15% | — |
| Trailing PE | 17.0x | 24.4x-31% | 15.5x | 12.0x+41% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.4x | 15.2x-58% | 7.8x-18% | 5.8x+11% |
| Price/FCF | 7.8x | 20.7x-62% | 13.8x-43% | 10.8x-28% |
| Price/Sales | 2.2x | 3.1x-28% | 1.4x+58% | 2.1x |
| Dividend Yield | 2.96% | 1.91% | 3.47% | 3.35% |
COP trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCOP Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
COP generates $18.3B in free cash flow at a 31.4% margin — 10.4% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 6.8% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$58.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+1.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
29.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
18.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
12.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$5.98
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$18.3B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
31.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
10.4%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
6.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$6.5B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$16.9B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.9× FCF
~0.9 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
11.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
6.8%
Dividend
3.0%
Buyback
3.8%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$5.0B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3.19
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
50.0%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
1.2B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageCOP Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Revenue Decline
Revenue growth is negative at -5.3%, indicating potential challenges in maintaining top-line performance.
Medium
Limited Bull Market Participation
Low beta of 0.11 suggests COP may not fully benefit from upward market movements.
High Risk
Oil Price Volatility
Future growth heavily depends on oil and gas prices, which are subject to significant fluctuations.
Medium
Geopolitical Risks
Escalating geopolitical tensions could disrupt operations or supply chains, impacting performance.
Medium
Market Oversupply
Persistent structural trends toward oversupply in the oil market could pressure prices and margins.
Lower
Valuation Concerns
Bear case price target of $100.67 suggests potential downside from current levels.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why COP Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Strong production and reserves
ConocoPhillips is one of the world’s largest independent E&P companies with significant production and proved reserves.
Low-cost shale assets
The company has a strong focus on low-cost shale assets, enhancing profitability and operational efficiency.
Portfolio streamlining
ConocoPhillips is exploring asset sales, such as Delaware Basin assets, to streamline its portfolio and raise capital.
Sustainability initiatives
The company is investing in sustainability initiatives, aligning with global energy transition trends and reducing long-term risks.
Institutional ownership
Top institutional holders like Vanguard Group (8.5%) indicate strong investor confidence in ConocoPhillips.
Global exploration position
ConocoPhillips has a significant exploration position in key regions like Norway, diversifying its geographic risk.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
COP Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$107.74
52W Range Position
44%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$85.57
+25.9% from the low
52-Week High
$135.87
-20.7% from the high
1 Month
-13.49%
3 Month
-12.87%
YTD
+11.4%
1 Year
+14.9%
3Y CAGR
+1.8%
5Y CAGR
+13.4%
10Y CAGR
+9.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
COP vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
10.6x
vs 7.5x median
+41% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+7.8%
vs +9.7% median
-20% below peer median
Net Margin
12.6%
vs 17.8% median
-29% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
COP COP ConocoPhillips | $131.3B | 10.6x | +7.8% | 12.6% | Buy | +23.4% |
EOG EOG EOG Resources, Inc. | $69.2B | 7.5x | +9.7% | 23.4% | Buy | +14.7% |
DVN DVN Devon Energy Corporation | $26.2B | 7.5x | +14.3% | 17.6% | Buy | +39.5% |
APA APA APA Corporation | $11.7B | 5.1x | +3.7% | 17.8% | Hold | +16.6% |
FAN FANG Diamondback Energy, Inc. | $51.6B | 9.0x | +12.8% | 2.7% | Buy | +19.0% |
OXY OXY Occidental Petroleum Corporation | $51.5B | 9.3x | +2.9% | 20.3% | Buy | +20.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
COP Dividend and Capital Return
COP returns 6.8% annually — 2.96% through dividends and 3.8% through buybacks.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
6.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.8%
Dividend Yield
2.96%
Payout Ratio
50.0%
How COP Splits Its Return
Div 2.96%
Buyback 3.8%
Dividend 2.96%Buybacks 3.8%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3.19
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
9Y
3Y Div CAGR
-15.6%
5Y Div CAGR
13.5%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$5.0B
Estimated Shares Retired
47M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.2B
At 3.8%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.68 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $3.18 | +1.9% | 4.3% | 7.7% |
| 2024 | $3.12 | -20.2% | 4.7% | 7.8% |
| 2023 | $3.91 | -26.1% | 3.9% | 7.8% |
| 2022 | $5.29 | +146.0% | 6.1% | 9.9% |
FAQ
7 questionsCOP Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is ConocoPhillips (COP) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
ConocoPhillips (COP) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 52 analysts covering the stock, 38 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 11 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $133, implying +23.4% from the current price of $108. The bear case scenario is $90 and the bull case is $187.
02What is the COP stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for COP is $133 based on 52 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $183 (+69.9% from today), and the low-end target is $98 (-9.0%). The base case model target is $142.
03Is ConocoPhillips (COP) stock overvalued in 2026?
COP trades at 10.6x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for ConocoPhillips (COP) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for COP in 2026 are: (1) Revenue Decline — Revenue growth is negative at -5. (2) Oil Price Volatility — Future growth heavily depends on oil and gas prices, which are subject to significant fluctuations. (3) Limited Bull Market Participation — Low beta of 0. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is ConocoPhillips's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates COP will report consensus revenue of $62.9B (+7.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $7.89 (+32.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $66.1B in revenue.
06When does ConocoPhillips (COP) report its next earnings?
ConocoPhillips is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-06. Consensus expects EPS of $2.95 and revenue of $18.9B. Over recent quarters, COP has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does ConocoPhillips generate?
ConocoPhillips (COP) generated $18.3B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 31.4%. COP returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.0% yield) and share repurchases ($5.0B TTM).