Upside case
Bull case
$313+153.7%
COP would need investors to value it at roughly 36x earnings — about 22x more generous than today's 14x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
ConocoPhillips (COP) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
52
analysts
38 bullish · 3 bearish · 52 covering COP
Strong Buy
1
Buy
37
Hold
11
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$127
+3.0% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $313
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
52
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
14.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $150.3B
COP price targets
Three scenarios for where COP stock could go
Current
~$123
Confidence
44 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $123
Base
$140
Bull
$313
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$140+13.8%
At 16x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
ConocoPhillips
COP · NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionDecember year-end
ConocoPhillips is a global independent exploration and production company that finds, produces, and sells crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. It generates revenue primarily from selling hydrocarbons produced from its diverse portfolio — including unconventional shale plays in North America, conventional assets worldwide, and oil sands in Canada — with no refining or marketing operations. The company's competitive advantage lies in its low-cost position, large-scale resource base, and operational expertise across multiple geographies and resource types.
Market Cap
$150.3B
Revenue TTM
$58.3B
Net Income TTM
$7.3B
Net Margin
12.6%
COP Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
33%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+5.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.42/$1.35
Revenue
$14.0B/$14.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.61/$1.41
Revenue
$15.0B/$14.6B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.02/$1.07
Revenue
$14.2B/$13.9B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.89/$1.68
Revenue
$16.1B/$15.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.42/$1.35 | +5.2% | $14.0B/$14.7B | -4.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.61/$1.41 | +14.2% | $15.0B/$14.6B | +2.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.02/$1.07 | -4.7% | $14.2B/$13.9B | +1.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.89/$1.68 | +12.5% | $16.1B/$15.6B | +2.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$63.5B
+8.9% YoY
FY2
$65.1B
+2.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$7.23
+21.0% YoY
FY2
$7.23
-0.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$18.3B
FCF Margin: 31.4%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
COP beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
COP Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $51.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Crude oil product line
75.7%
+0.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Lower 48
68.0%
-4.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Crude oil product line is the largest disclosed segment at 75.7% of FY 2025 revenue, up 0.1% YoY.
Lower 48 is the largest reported region at 68.0%, down 4.8% YoY.
COP Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $172 — implies +39.3% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
39.3%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
COP
19.4x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
23% discount
vs Energy Trailing P/E
COP
19.4x
vs
Energy
17.1x
+14% premium
vs COP 5Y Avg P/E
Today
19.4x
vs
5Y Average
12.0x
+61% premium
Forward PE
14.3x
S&P 500
19.1x
-25%
Energy
13.9x
+3%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
19.4x
S&P 500
25.1x
-23%
Energy
17.1x
+14%
5Y Avg
12.0x
+61%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Energy
0.53x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
7.2x
S&P 500
15.2x
-53%
Energy
8.0x
-10%
5Y Avg
5.8x
+25%
Price/FCF
9.0x
S&P 500
21.1x
-58%
Energy
13.8x
-35%
5Y Avg
10.8x
-17%
Price/Sales
2.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
-18%
Energy
1.6x
+55%
5Y Avg
2.1x
+20%
Dividend Yield
2.58%
S&P 500
1.87%
+38%
Energy
2.73%
-5%
5Y Avg
3.35%
-23%
| Metric | COP | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg COP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 14.3x | 19.1x-25% | 13.9x | — |
| Trailing PE | 19.4x | 25.1x-23% | 17.1x+14% | 12.0x+61% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 0.53x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.2x | 15.2x-53% | 8.0x-10% | 5.8x+25% |
| Price/FCF | 9.0x | 21.1x-58% | 13.8x-35% | 10.8x-17% |
| Price/Sales | 2.6x | 3.1x-18% | 1.6x+55% | 2.1x+20% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.58% | 1.87% | 2.73% | 3.35% |
COP trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCOP Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
COP generates $18.3B in free cash flow at a 31.4% margin — 10.4% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 5.9% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$58.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+1.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
29.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
18.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
12.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$5.98
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$18.3B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
31.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
10.4%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
6.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$6.5B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$16.9B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.9× FCF
~0.9 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
11.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.9%
Dividend
2.6%
Buyback
3.3%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$5.0B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3.19
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
50.0%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
1.2B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageCOP Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Commodity Price Volatility
Fluctuations in global oil and gas prices are a primary risk, directly affecting revenues, profitability, and the shareholder return strategy tied to a percentage of cash flow from operations.
High Risk
Reserve Replacement Trend
A sustained trend of sub‑100% reserve replacement could raise concerns about the long‑term sustainability of ConocoPhillips’ production base, potentially impacting future cash flows.
Medium
Geopolitical Tensions
Conflicts such as the war in Iran can disrupt supply chains and negatively impact assets in affected regions, including ConocoPhillips’ Qatar operations.
Medium
Regulatory & Legal Changes
Evolving environmental regulations, carbon pricing, and antitrust laws can increase compliance costs, affect operational decisions, and expose the company to legal liability.
Lower
Climate Transition Risks
Policy changes and emissions management, coupled with a shift toward alternative energy, could reduce demand for oil and gas products, impacting revenue streams.
Lower
Operational Disruptions
Cyberattacks, hardware or software failures, and utility outages could impair production and distribution systems, preventing product delivery and causing operational disruptions.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why COP Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Free Cash Flow Focus
ConocoPhillips prioritizes free cash flow over volume growth, projecting over $1 billion in annual FCF through 2029. This is driven by portfolio optimization and cost reductions, rather than aggressive oil price assumptions.
Shareholder Returns Strategy
In FY25, 45% of operating cash flow was returned to shareholders via $5 billion in share repurchases and $4 billion in dividends. The company retains substantial remaining authorization for further buybacks.
Cost Management & Synergies
ConocoPhillips plans to cut capital and operating expenses, targeting $1 billion in annual savings. Synergies from the Marathon Oil acquisition are expected to accelerate these cost reductions.
Strategic Asset Positioning
The firm is reshaping its portfolio to emphasize high‑yielding production, with a growing focus on gas exports—a market that is becoming increasingly attractive.
Growth Projects & FCF Accretion
Long‑term free cash flow accretion is underpinned by projects such as the Willow project in Alaska and expanding LNG export capacity.
Low Decline Rates & Breakeven Costs
ConocoPhillips benefits from low decline rates and falling breakeven costs, which support stable, repeatable returns even amid volatile oil prices.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
COP Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$123.32
52W Range Position
76%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$84.28
+46.3% from the low
52-Week High
$135.87
-9.2% from the high
1 Month
-6.32%
3 Month
+17.47%
YTD
+27.5%
1 Year
+40.8%
3Y CAGR
+7.1%
5Y CAGR
+17.3%
10Y CAGR
+11.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
COP vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
14.3x
vs 9.8x median
+45% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+8.9%
vs +10.7% median
-17% below peer median
Net Margin
12.6%
vs 16.1% median
-22% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
COP COP ConocoPhillips | $150.3B | 14.3x | +8.9% | 12.6% | Buy | +3.0% |
EOG EOG EOG Resources, Inc. | $75.4B | 9.8x | +10.7% | 23.4% | Buy | -2.1% |
DVN DVN Devon Energy Corporation | $31.7B | 9.7x | +21.8% | 15.9% | Buy | +5.5% |
APA APA APA Corporation | $14.7B | 7.5x | -2.2% | 16.1% | Hold | -21.8% |
FAN FANG Diamondback Energy, Inc. | $58.0B | 11.6x | +15.8% | 2.7% | Buy | -2.4% |
OXY OXY Occidental Petroleum Corporation | $58.8B | 14.3x | -7.7% | 19.6% | Buy | -4.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
COP Dividend and Capital Return
COP returns 5.9% annually — 2.58% through dividends and 3.3% through buybacks.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
5.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.3%
Dividend Yield
2.58%
Payout Ratio
50.0%
How COP Splits Its Return
Div 2.58%
Buyback 3.3%
Dividend 2.58%Buybacks 3.3%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3.19
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
-13.9%
5Y Div CAGR
13.5%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$5.0B
Estimated Shares Retired
41M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.2B
At 3.3%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.68 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $3.18 | +1.9% | 4.3% | 7.7% |
| 2024 | $3.12 | -20.2% | 4.7% | 7.8% |
| 2023 | $3.91 | -21.6% | 3.9% | 7.8% |
| 2022 | $4.99 | +155.9% | 6.1% | 9.9% |
FAQ
7 questionsCOP Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is ConocoPhillips (COP) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
ConocoPhillips (COP) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 52 analysts covering the stock, 38 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 11 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $127, implying +3.0% from the current price of $123.
02What is the COP stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for COP is $127 based on 52 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $183 (+48.4% from today), and the low-end target is $98 (-20.5%). The base case model target is $140.
03Is ConocoPhillips (COP) stock overvalued in 2026?
COP trades at 14.3x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for ConocoPhillips (COP) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for COP in 2026 are: (1) Commodity Price Volatility — Fluctuations in global oil and gas prices are a primary risk, directly affecting revenues, profitability, and the shareholder return strategy tied to a percentage of cash flow from operations. (2) Reserve Replacement Trend — A sustained trend of sub‑100% reserve replacement could raise concerns about the long‑term sustainability of ConocoPhillips’ production base, potentially impacting future cash flows. (3) Geopolitical Tensions — Conflicts such as the war in Iran can disrupt supply chains and negatively impact assets in affected regions, including ConocoPhillips’ Qatar operations. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is ConocoPhillips's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates COP will report consensus revenue of $63.5B (+8.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $7.23 (+21.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $65.1B in revenue.
06When does ConocoPhillips (COP) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for COP is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does ConocoPhillips generate?
ConocoPhillips (COP) generated $18.3B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 31.4%. COP returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.6% yield) and share repurchases ($5.0B TTM).