Upside case
Bull case
$473+236.1%
EOG would need investors to value it at roughly 33x earnings — about 23x more generous than today's 10x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
66
analysts
39 bullish · 0 bearish · 66 covering EOG
Strong Buy
1
Buy
38
Hold
27
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$138
-2.1% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $473
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
66
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
9.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $75.4B
EOG price targets
Three scenarios for where EOG stock could go
Current
~$141
Confidence
47 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $141
Base
$185
Bull
$473
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$185+31.4%
At 13x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
EOG Resources, Inc.
EOG · NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionDecember year-end
EOG Resources is a leading independent exploration and production company focused on finding and developing oil and natural gas reserves. It generates revenue primarily from crude oil sales (roughly 70% of total revenue), with natural gas and natural gas liquids making up the remainder. The company's competitive advantage lies in its premium drilling inventory—particularly in the Delaware Basin and Eagle Ford shale—where its technical expertise and operational efficiency deliver industry-leading returns.
Market Cap
$75.4B
Revenue TTM
$23.5B
Net Income TTM
$5.5B
Net Margin
23.4%
EOG Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
25%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+6.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$2.87/$2.80
Revenue
$5.8B/$5.9B
Q3 2025
EPS
$2.32/$2.23
Revenue
$5.4B/$5.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.71/$2.46
Revenue
$5.7B/$6.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.27/$2.20
Revenue
$5.6B/$5.8B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $2.87/$2.80 | +2.5% | $5.8B/$5.9B | -1.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.32/$2.23 | +4.0% | $5.4B/$5.4B | -1.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.71/$2.46 | +10.2% | $5.7B/$6.0B | -4.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.27/$2.20 | +3.2% | $5.6B/$5.8B | -2.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$25.0B
+10.7% YoY
FY2
$24.0B
-3.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$12.52
+35.6% YoY
FY2
$11.97
-4.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$4.2B
FCF Margin: 18.0%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
EOG beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
EOG Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $20.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Oil and Condensate
61.6%
-10.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
98.4%
-4.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Oil and Condensate is the largest disclosed segment at 61.6% of FY 2025 revenue, down 10.2% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 98.4%, down 4.8% YoY.
EOG Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Overvalued
Fair value est. $113 — implies -18.5% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
18.5%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
EOG
15.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
38% discount
vs Energy Trailing P/E
EOG
15.5x
vs
Energy
17.1x
9% discount
vs EOG 5Y Avg P/E
Today
15.5x
vs
5Y Average
10.5x
+47% premium
Forward PE
9.8x
S&P 500
19.1x
-49%
Energy
13.9x
-29%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
15.5x
S&P 500
25.1x
-38%
Energy
17.1x
-9%
5Y Avg
10.5x
+47%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Energy
0.53x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
6.3x
S&P 500
15.2x
-58%
Energy
8.0x
-21%
5Y Avg
5.3x
+19%
Price/FCF
19.2x
S&P 500
21.1x
-9%
Energy
13.8x
+39%
5Y Avg
12.6x
+52%
Price/Sales
3.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
+7%
Energy
1.6x
+103%
5Y Avg
2.8x
+22%
Dividend Yield
2.85%
S&P 500
1.87%
+52%
Energy
2.73%
+4%
5Y Avg
4.71%
-40%
| Metric | EOG | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg EOG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 9.8x | 19.1x-49% | 13.9x-29% | — |
| Trailing PE | 15.5x | 25.1x-38% | 17.1x | 10.5x+47% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 0.53x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.3x | 15.2x-58% | 8.0x-21% | 5.3x+19% |
| Price/FCF | 19.2x | 21.1x | 13.8x+39% | 12.6x+52% |
| Price/Sales | 3.3x | 3.1x | 1.6x+103% | 2.8x+22% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.85% | 1.87% | 2.73% | 4.71% |
EOG trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolEOG Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
EOG generates $4.2B in free cash flow at a 18.0% margin — 19.1% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 6.2% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$23.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+0.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
48.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
36.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
23.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$10.27
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$4.2B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
18.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
19.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
10.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$3.4B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$5.0B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.2× FCF
~1.2 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
18.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
6.2%
Dividend
2.8%
Buyback
3.4%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$2.6B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$4.01
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
43.4%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
536M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageEOG Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Commodity Price Volatility
Fluctuations in crude oil, natural gas, and NGL prices directly affect EOG’s revenue and profitability. Prolonged periods of low commodity prices can erode cash flows, weaken the balance sheet, and limit dividend or share‑repurchase capacity.
Medium
Regulatory & Policy Shifts
EOG operates under extensive environmental and safety regulations. Stricter carbon‑emission rules or new hydraulic‑fracturing mandates could raise compliance costs and constrain growth opportunities.
Medium
Operational Risks
Drilling and production activities carry inherent risks such as equipment failures, unexpected subsurface conditions, and adverse weather. These events can interrupt production, delay deliveries, and increase operating expenses.
Medium
Geopolitical Risks
EOG’s international assets in Trinidad, Bahrain, and the UAE expose it to political instability. Regional unrest or policy changes could disrupt operations or limit market access.
Lower
Supply Chain Disruptions
Delays in procuring equipment, materials, or services can postpone project execution and inflate costs. Such disruptions may affect project timelines and profitability.
Lower
Global Energy Transition
The shift toward cleaner energy sources poses a long‑term challenge to EOG’s growth prospects. Reduced demand for oil and gas could compress margins and limit future expansion.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why EOG Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Low-Cost Development & Tech Gains
EOG focuses on low-cost development and efficiency improvements through proprietary drilling technology, driving significant declines in well costs—particularly in the Delaware Basin. These cost reductions translate into high after‑tax returns, positioning the company favorably as demand rises in sectors like LNG and data centers.
Encino Acquisition Boosts Utica Position
The $5.6 billion acquisition of Encino enhances EOG’s foothold in the Utica Shale, providing a foundational asset expected to deliver exceptional returns and accelerate growth. This strategic move expands the company’s resource base and strengthens its competitive advantage in the region.
Free Cash Flow Return Surge
EOG has increased total cash returns, achieving 100 % of free cash flow in FY25 compared with 48 % in FY21. The company also boasts a history of dividend increases for eight consecutive years, underscoring its commitment to shareholder value.
Strong Balance Sheet & Low Debt
EOG maintains a solid balance sheet with a relatively low debt‑to‑equity ratio, providing financial flexibility and resilience amid commodity price volatility. The company’s robust cash position supports ongoing investment and shareholder return initiatives.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
EOG Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$140.82
52W Range Position
78%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$101.59
+38.6% from the low
52-Week High
$151.87
-7.3% from the high
1 Month
-1.56%
3 Month
+25.18%
YTD
+31.3%
1 Year
+29.8%
3Y CAGR
+7.2%
5Y CAGR
+12.9%
10Y CAGR
+5.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
EOG vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
9.8x
vs 11.6x median
-15% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+10.7%
vs +8.9% median
+21% above peer median
Net Margin
23.4%
vs 15.9% median
+47% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EOG EOG EOG Resources, Inc. | $75.4B | 9.8x | +10.7% | 23.4% | Buy | -2.1% |
DVN DVN Devon Energy Corporation | $31.7B | 9.7x | +21.8% | 15.9% | Buy | +5.5% |
FAN FANG Diamondback Energy, Inc. | $58.0B | 11.6x | +15.8% | 2.7% | Buy | -2.4% |
APA APA APA Corporation | $14.7B | 7.5x | -2.2% | 16.1% | Hold | -21.8% |
CTR CTRA Coterra Energy Inc. | $27.1B | 12.6x | -15.3% | 23.3% | Buy | -4.6% |
COP COP ConocoPhillips | $150.3B | 14.3x | +8.9% | 12.6% | Buy | +3.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
EOG Dividend and Capital Return
EOG returns 6.2% annually — 2.85% through dividends and 3.4% through buybacks.
Dividend SustainableFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
6.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.4%
Dividend Yield
2.85%
Payout Ratio
43.4%
How EOG Splits Its Return
Div 2.85%
Buyback 3.4%
Dividend 2.85%Buybacks 3.4%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$4.01
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
-23.5%
5Y Div CAGR
22.8%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$2.6B
Estimated Shares Retired
18M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
536M
At 3.4%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.04 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $3.94 | +8.4% | 4.5% | 8.3% |
| 2024 | $3.64 | -35.3% | 4.7% | 7.6% |
| 2023 | $5.63 | -36.1% | 1.5% | 6.3% |
| 2022 | $8.80 | +90.8% | 0.2% | 6.9% |
FAQ
7 questionsEOG Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 66 analysts covering the stock, 39 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 27 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $138, implying -2.1% from the current price of $141.
02What is the EOG stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for EOG is $138 based on 66 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $177 (+25.7% from today), and the low-end target is $110 (-21.9%). The base case model target is $185.
03Is EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG) stock overvalued in 2026?
EOG trades at 9.8x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for EOG in 2026 are: (1) Commodity Price Volatility — Fluctuations in crude oil, natural gas, and NGL prices directly affect EOG’s revenue and profitability. (2) Regulatory & Policy Shifts — EOG operates under extensive environmental and safety regulations. (3) Operational Risks — Drilling and production activities carry inherent risks such as equipment failures, unexpected subsurface conditions, and adverse weather. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is EOG Resources, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates EOG will report consensus revenue of $25.0B (+10.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $12.52 (+35.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $24.0B in revenue.
06When does EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for EOG is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does EOG Resources, Inc. generate?
EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG) generated $4.2B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 18.0%. EOG returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.8% yield) and share repurchases ($2.6B TTM).