Upside case
Bull case
$97+153.5%
APA would need investors to value it at roughly 18x earnings — about 11x more generous than today's 7x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
APA Corporation (APA) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
51
analysts
19 bullish · 5 bearish · 51 covering APA
Strong Buy
0
Buy
19
Hold
27
Sell
5
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$32
-15.2% vs today
Scenario Range
$1 – $97
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
51
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
7.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $13.5B
APA price targets
Three scenarios for where APA stock could go
Current
~$38
Confidence
43 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $38
Bear
$1
Base
$38
Bull
$97
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$38-2.0%
This is close to how the market is already pricing APA — at roughly 7x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$1-98.5%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 7x multiple contraction could push APA down roughly 99% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
APA Corporation
APA · NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionDecember year-end
APA Corporation is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company with operations primarily in the United States, Egypt, and the United Kingdom. It generates revenue from oil and natural gas sales — with production roughly split between U.S. onshore assets (primarily the Permian Basin) and international operations — supplemented by midstream income from its West Texas gathering and pipeline assets. The company's competitive advantage lies in its diversified geographic portfolio, which provides operational resilience, and its established position in the prolific Permian Basin.
Market Cap
$13.5B
Revenue TTM
$8.9B
Net Income TTM
$1.4B
Net Margin
16.1%
APA Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+18.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$1.06/$0.83
Revenue
$2.6B/$2.2B
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.87/$0.45
Revenue
$2.2B/$2.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.93/$0.79
Revenue
$2.1B/$2.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.91/$0.64
Revenue
$2.0B/$1.8B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $1.06/$0.83 | +27.7% | $2.6B/$2.2B | +20.0% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.87/$0.45 | +93.3% | $2.2B/$2.1B | +5.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.93/$0.79 | +17.3% | $2.1B/$2.1B | +2.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.91/$0.64 | +41.3% | $2.0B/$1.8B | +12.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$8.7B
-2.2% YoY
FY2
$8.2B
-5.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$4.74
+17.3% YoY
FY2
$3.91
-17.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.8B
FCF Margin: 19.9%
Next Earnings
May 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.06
Expected Revenue
$2.1B
APA beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
APA Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $17.8B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Oil and Gas
50.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment United States
52.8%
-11.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Oil and Gas is the largest disclosed segment at 50.0% of FY 2025 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
Segment United States is the largest reported region at 52.8%, down 11.5% YoY.
APA Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $54 — implies +35.1% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
35.1%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
APA
9.6x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
62% discount
vs Energy Trailing P/E
APA
9.6x
vs
Energy
16.9x
43% discount
vs APA 5Y Avg P/E
Today
9.6x
vs
5Y Average
7.0x
+38% premium
Forward PE
7.0x
S&P 500
19.1x
-64%
Energy
13.2x
-47%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
9.6x
S&P 500
25.2x
-62%
Energy
16.9x
-43%
5Y Avg
7.0x
+38%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Energy
0.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
3.4x
S&P 500
15.3x
-78%
Energy
8.1x
-59%
5Y Avg
3.2x
+7%
Price/FCF
7.6x
S&P 500
21.3x
-64%
Energy
14.1x
-46%
5Y Avg
8.0x
-5%
Price/Sales
1.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
-52%
Energy
1.6x
-3%
5Y Avg
1.2x
+30%
Dividend Yield
2.62%
S&P 500
1.88%
+39%
Energy
2.97%
-12%
5Y Avg
2.61%
+0%
| Metric | APA | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg APA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 7.0x | 19.1x-64% | 13.2x-47% | — |
| Trailing PE | 9.6x | 25.2x-62% | 16.9x-43% | 7.0x+38% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 0.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.4x | 15.3x-78% | 8.1x-59% | 3.2x |
| Price/FCF | 7.6x | 21.3x-64% | 14.1x-46% | 8.0x |
| Price/Sales | 1.5x | 3.1x-52% | 1.6x | 1.2x+30% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.62% | 1.88% | 2.97% | 2.61% |
APA trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolAPA Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
APA generates $1.8B in free cash flow at a 19.9% margin — 17.8% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 4.7% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$8.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-8.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
38.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
30.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
16.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$4.04
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.8B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
19.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
17.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
7.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$516M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$4.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
2.4× FCF
~2.4 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
21.1%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.7%
Dividend
2.6%
Buyback
2.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$280M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.00
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
25.1%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
353M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageAPA Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
High Debt Levels
APA Group carries a significant amount of debt, with a high net debt to EBITDA ratio. This increases financial risk, especially if earnings decline or interest rates rise, as the company's liabilities outweigh its cash and near-term receivables.
High Risk
Interest Rate Sensitivity
Rising interest rates can increase the cost of debt for APA Group, impacting profitability. The company has previously benefited from reduced interest rates, making it vulnerable to future rate hikes.
High Risk
Gas Demand Dependence
APA Group's revenue is heavily reliant on end-user gas demand, which can fluctuate due to gas prices and competition from alternative energy sources. A decline in demand could significantly reduce revenue.
Medium
Equipment Failures
Operational risks such as equipment failures, pipeline ruptures, and IT system breakdowns expose APA Group to potential earnings disruptions. Unplanned interruptions can adversely affect operational performance.
Medium
Contract Renewal Risks
A significant portion of APA Group's revenue is derived from long-term contracts. The inability to successfully recontract pipeline capacity upon expiry could negatively impact future revenue streams.
Medium
Commodity Price Volatility
Fluctuations in crude oil prices and geopolitical events can significantly impact APA Corporation's stock price, which is often confused with APA Group. This volatility can create uncertainty for investors.
Lower
Climate Change Regulations
APA Group is increasingly focused on climate-related risks, with plans to achieve net-zero operational emissions by 2050. However, tighter climate regulations could impact gas pipeline demand and margins.
Lower
Planning Approvals Delays
The transition to renewables may face delays due to slow planning approvals and community opposition, commonly referred to as NIMBYism. These factors could hinder APA Group's operational expansion in renewable energy.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why APA Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Dominant Market Position
APA Group is a leading energy infrastructure business in Australia, primarily focused on natural gas transmission. It manages over 15,000 kilometers of gas transmission pipelines, controlling approximately 70% of Australia's natural gas transportation market.
Stable Revenue Streams
The company's business model relies on long-term agreements with energy producers and suppliers for transporting energy through its pipeline infrastructure. This ensures steady cash flow and reduces revenue volatility.
Strategic Partnerships and Growth
APA has been formalizing strategic partnerships, such as the one with Siemens Energy to support Australia's energy transition. This indicates a forward-looking approach to evolving energy needs.
Financial Strength and Shareholder Returns
APA aims to balance rewarding shareholders with sustainable increases in distributions while retaining funds for organic growth and investment. Recent actions, like strengthening its balance sheet with unsecured debt raises, suggest a focus on financial discipline.
Positive Technical Indicators
Some analyses highlight bullish price action, long-term momentum, and institutional accumulation of APA stock, suggesting potential upside. Specific technical patterns, like an inverse head and shoulders, have indicated potential price targets.
Dividend Payouts
APA has a consistent dividend policy, with recent declarations maintaining a steady quarterly payout, offering an attractive yield for income-focused investors.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
APA Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$38.30
52W Range Position
76%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$15.20
+152.0% from the low
52-Week High
$45.66
-16.1% from the high
1 Month
-10.97%
3 Month
+39.48%
YTD
+51.0%
1 Year
+143.5%
3Y CAGR
+5.0%
5Y CAGR
+12.3%
10Y CAGR
-3.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
APA vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
7.0x
vs 11.5x median
-40% below peer median
Revenue Growth
-2.2%
vs +8.4% median
-127% below peer median
Net Margin
16.1%
vs 17.6% median
-8% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
APA APA APA Corporation | $13.5B | 7.0x | -2.2% | 16.1% | Hold | -15.2% |
DVN DVN Devon Energy Corporation | $29.0B | 8.9x | +21.7% | 17.6% | Buy | +15.4% |
COP COP ConocoPhillips | $144.9B | 13.8x | +8.9% | 12.6% | Buy | +6.9% |
OVV OVV Ovintiv Inc. | $15.2B | 7.7x | -0.5% | 14.1% | Buy | -6.2% |
CTR CTRA Coterra Energy Inc. | $24.7B | 11.5x | -15.3% | 25.7% | Buy | +4.5% |
PR PR Permian Resources Corporation | $17.6B | 11.5x | +8.4% | 17.6% | Buy | +5.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
APA Dividend and Capital Return
APA returns 4.7% total yield, led by a 2.62% dividend. Buybacks add another 2.1%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
4.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
2.1%
Dividend Yield
2.62%
Payout Ratio
25.1%
How APA Splits Its Return
Div 2.62%
Buyback 2.1%
Dividend 2.62%Buybacks 2.1%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
4Y
3Y Div CAGR
17.0%
5Y Div CAGR
25.2%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$280M
Estimated Shares Retired
7M
Approx. Share Reduction
2.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
353M
At 2.1%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.50 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.00 | 0.0% | 3.2% | 7.3% |
| 2024 | $1.00 | 0.0% | 3.0% | 7.3% |
| 2023 | $1.00 | +60.0% | 3.0% | 5.7% |
| 2022 | $0.63 | +354.5% | 9.2% | 10.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsAPA Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is APA Corporation (APA) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
APA Corporation (APA) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 51 analysts covering the stock, 19 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 27 rate it Hold, and 5 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $32, implying -15.2% from the current price of $38. The bear case scenario is $1 and the bull case is $97.
02What is the APA stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for APA is $32 based on 51 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $45 (+17.5% from today), and the low-end target is $21 (-45.2%). The base case model target is $38.
03Is APA Corporation (APA) stock overvalued in 2026?
APA trades at 7.0x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for APA Corporation (APA) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for APA in 2026 are: (1) High Debt Levels — APA Group carries a significant amount of debt, with a high net debt to EBITDA ratio. (2) Interest Rate Sensitivity — Rising interest rates can increase the cost of debt for APA Group, impacting profitability. (3) Gas Demand Dependence — APA Group's revenue is heavily reliant on end-user gas demand, which can fluctuate due to gas prices and competition from alternative energy sources. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is APA Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates APA will report consensus revenue of $8.7B (-2.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $4.74 (+17.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $8.2B in revenue.
06When does APA Corporation (APA) report its next earnings?
APA Corporation is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-06. Consensus expects EPS of $1.06 and revenue of $2.1B. Over recent quarters, APA has beaten EPS estimates 67% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does APA Corporation generate?
APA Corporation (APA) generated $1.8B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 19.9%. APA returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.6% yield) and share repurchases ($280M TTM).