Upside case
Bull case
$1249+540.2%
FANG would need investors to value it at roughly 70x earnings — about 59x more generous than today's 11x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
51
analysts
46 bullish · 0 bearish · 51 covering FANG
Strong Buy
1
Buy
45
Hold
5
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$201
+3.2% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $1249
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
51
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
10.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $54.9B
FANG price targets
Three scenarios for where FANG stock could go
Current
~$195
Confidence
43 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $195
Base
$414
Bull
$1249
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$414+112.4%
At 23x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Diamondback Energy, Inc.
FANG · NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionDecember year-end
Diamondback Energy is an independent oil and natural gas company focused on unconventional resource development in the Permian Basin. It generates revenue primarily from crude oil production — roughly 70% of total revenue — with natural gas and natural gas liquids making up the remainder. The company's competitive advantage lies in its large, contiguous acreage position in the Permian's most productive formations, which enables efficient, low-cost development through scale and operational expertise.
Market Cap
$54.9B
Revenue TTM
$15.2B
Net Income TTM
$403M
Net Margin
2.7%
FANG Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+0.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.67/$2.76
Revenue
$3.7B/$3.3B
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.08/$2.94
Revenue
$3.9B/$3.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.74/$2.00
Revenue
$3.0B/$3.3B
Q2 2026
EPS
$4.23/$3.74
Revenue
$4.2B/$3.8B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.67/$2.76 | -3.3% | $3.7B/$3.3B | +9.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.08/$2.94 | +4.8% | $3.9B/$3.5B | +11.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.74/$2.00 | -13.0% | $3.0B/$3.3B | -7.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.23/$3.74 | +13.1% | $4.2B/$3.8B | +10.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$17.6B
+15.8% YoY
FY2
$20.1B
+14.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$12.59
+783.2% YoY
FY2
$12.17
-3.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.6B
FCF Margin: 10.5%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
FANG beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
FANG Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $28.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Oil Exploration and Production
88.3%
+30.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Oil Exploration and Production is the largest disclosed segment at 88.3% of FY 2025 revenue, up 30.8% YoY.
FANG Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Overvalued
Fair value est. $162 — implies -21.8% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
21.8%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
FANG
34.0x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+35% premium
vs Energy Trailing P/E
FANG
34.0x
vs
Energy
16.9x
+102% premium
vs FANG 5Y Avg P/E
Today
34.0x
vs
5Y Average
12.0x
+183% premium
Forward PE
10.9x
S&P 500
19.1x
-43%
Energy
13.2x
-17%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
34.0x
S&P 500
25.2x
+35%
Energy
16.9x
+102%
5Y Avg
12.0x
+183%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Energy
0.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
7.0x
S&P 500
15.3x
-54%
Energy
8.1x
-15%
5Y Avg
5.3x
+32%
Price/FCF
10.5x
S&P 500
21.3x
-51%
Energy
14.1x
-26%
5Y Avg
13.0x
-19%
Price/Sales
3.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
+17%
Energy
1.6x
+134%
5Y Avg
3.0x
+24%
Dividend Yield
2.05%
S&P 500
1.88%
+9%
Energy
2.97%
-31%
5Y Avg
4.10%
-50%
| Metric | FANG | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg FANG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 10.9x | 19.1x-43% | 13.2x-17% | — |
| Trailing PE | 34.0x | 25.2x+35% | 16.9x+102% | 12.0x+183% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 0.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.0x | 15.3x-54% | 8.1x-15% | 5.3x+32% |
| Price/FCF | 10.5x | 21.3x-51% | 14.1x-26% | 13.0x-19% |
| Price/Sales | 3.7x | 3.1x+17% | 1.6x+134% | 3.0x+24% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.05% | 1.88% | 2.97% | 4.10% |
FANG trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolFANG Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
FANG generates $1.6B in free cash flow at a 10.5% margin — returns 5.7% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$15.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+18.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
41.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
22.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
2.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.43
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.6B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
10.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
6.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
0.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$106M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$14.4B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
9.0× FCF
~9.0 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
0.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.7%
Dividend
2.0%
Buyback
3.7%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$2.0B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$4.00
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
69.5%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
281M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageFANG Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Regulatory & Antitrust Scrutiny
Meta, Apple, and Alphabet face intense regulatory scrutiny over data handling, antitrust concerns, and platform dominance. Potential fines, divestitures, or forced changes to business models could materially reduce revenue and increase compliance costs.
High Risk
Advertising Revenue Dependence
Meta derives almost 100% of its revenue from advertising. Any decline in user engagement or brand safety concerns could sharply cut ad spend, directly impacting top‑line growth.
High Risk
Content Cost & Margin Pressure
Netflix's escalating spending on original content and advertising technology, amid a "content cost war", threatens to erode operating margins. Reduced profitability could limit future investment and shareholder returns.
Medium
Metaverse Investment Losses
Meta's substantial capital outlays in metaverse initiatives have produced significant operating losses, obscuring the profitability of its core social media business. Continued losses could dilute earnings and pressure valuation.
Medium
China Manufacturing & Market Exposure
Apple relies heavily on China for manufacturing and as a key consumer market. Geopolitical tensions, tariffs, or regulatory pressure in China could disrupt supply chains and dampen sales.
Medium
AI‑Driven Search Disruption
Generative AI and intelligent agents reduce the need for traditional search queries, potentially shrinking query volume, ad impressions, and click‑through rates. This shift threatens Alphabet's core search advertising revenue.
Medium
Commodity Price & Geopolitical Volatility
Diamondback operates in an energy sector subject to volatile commodity prices and geopolitical events. Fluctuations can materially affect production revenue and cash flow.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why FANG Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Expanded Share Buyback Authorization
Diamondback has increased its share repurchase authorization to $8 billion, signaling management’s confidence in returning excess capital to shareholders. The move is backed by a healthy balance sheet driven by higher production volumes and asset divestitures, giving the company ample cash flow to fund the buybacks.
Production Guidance Upside & Capital Discipline
The company has raised its full‑year production guidance while simultaneously cutting its capital budget, demonstrating a focus on operational efficiency. This dual upside in output and lower capex positions Diamondback to generate stronger cash flows.
Unhedged Exposure & Operating Leverage
A significant portion of Diamondback’s oil production is unhedged, exposing it to spot price increases. With industry‑leading low breakeven costs, every dollar above the breakeven translates into pure operating leverage.
Capital Return Commitment (50% FCF)
Diamondback commits to returning at least 50% of quarterly free cash flow to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, ensuring a disciplined capital return framework.
Analyst Buy‑Side Momentum
Multiple Wall Street analysts have issued “buy” ratings, and the consensus rating remains “Buy,” reflecting strong market support for the company’s strategy.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
FANG Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$195.10
52W Range Position
78%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$127.75
+52.7% from the low
52-Week High
$214.51
-9.0% from the high
1 Month
+0.43%
3 Month
+16.88%
YTD
+28.1%
1 Year
+47.8%
3Y CAGR
+13.7%
5Y CAGR
+18.9%
10Y CAGR
+8.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
FANG vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
10.9x
vs 8.0x median
+36% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+15.8%
vs +7.9% median
+99% above peer median
Net Margin
2.7%
vs 20.5% median
-87% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FAN FANG Diamondback Energy, Inc. | $54.9B | 10.9x | +15.8% | 2.7% | Buy | +3.2% |
MTD MTDR Matador Resources Company | $7.2B | 8.0x | +10.4% | 14.4% | Buy | +18.2% |
CTR CTRA Coterra Energy Inc. | $24.7B | 11.5x | -15.3% | 25.7% | Buy | +4.5% |
SM SM SM Energy Company | $3.3B | 4.3x | +44.0% | 20.5% | Buy | +1.6% |
PAR PARR Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. | $3.1B | 5.6x | +1.7% | 6.0% | Buy | -1.1% |
EOG EOG EOG Resources, Inc. | $72.2B | 9.4x | +7.9% | 23.4% | Buy | +2.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FANG Dividend and Capital Return
FANG returns capital mainly through $2.0B/year in buybacks (3.5% buyback yield), with a modest 1.94% dividend — combining for 5.4% total shareholder yield.
Dividend WatchFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
5.4%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.5%
Dividend Yield
1.94%
Payout Ratio
69.5%
How FANG Splits Its Return
Div 1.94%
Buyback 3.5%
Dividend 1.94%Buybacks 3.5%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$4.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
-23.6%
5Y Div CAGR
21.7%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$2.0B
Estimated Shares Retired
10M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
281M
At 3.7%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.05 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $4.00 | -51.7% | 4.6% | 7.3% |
| 2024 | $8.29 | +3.8% | 2.7% | 7.3% |
| 2023 | $7.99 | -10.8% | 3.3% | 8.5% |
| 2022 | $8.96 | +412.0% | 5.2% | 11.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsFANG Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 51 analysts covering the stock, 46 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 5 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $201, implying +3.2% from the current price of $195.
02What is the FANG stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for FANG is $201 based on 51 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $262 (+34.3% from today), and the low-end target is $100 (-48.7%). The base case model target is $414.
03Is Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG) stock overvalued in 2026?
FANG trades at 10.9x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for FANG in 2026 are: (1) Regulatory & Antitrust Scrutiny — Meta, Apple, and Alphabet face intense regulatory scrutiny over data handling, antitrust concerns, and platform dominance. (2) Advertising Revenue Dependence — Meta derives almost 100% of its revenue from advertising. (3) Content Cost & Margin Pressure — Netflix's escalating spending on original content and advertising technology, amid a "content cost war", threatens to erode operating margins. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Diamondback Energy, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates FANG will report consensus revenue of $17.6B (+15.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $12.59 (+783.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $20.1B in revenue.
06When does Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for FANG is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Diamondback Energy, Inc. generate?
Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG) generated $1.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 10.5%. FANG returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.9% yield) and share repurchases ($2.0B TTM).