Upside case
Bull case
$546+197.5%
FANG would need investors to value it at roughly 27x earnings — about 18x more generous than today's 9x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
51
analysts
46 bullish · 0 bearish · 51 covering FANG
Strong Buy
1
Buy
45
Hold
5
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$218
+19.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$261 – $546
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
51
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
9.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $51.6B
FANG price targets
Three scenarios for where FANG stock could go
Current
~$184
Confidence
51 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $184
Bear
$261
Base
$414
Bull
$546
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$414+125.8%
At 20x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$261+42.3%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push FANG down roughly 42% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Diamondback Energy, Inc.
FANG · NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionDecember year-end
Diamondback Energy is an independent oil and natural gas company focused on unconventional resource development in the Permian Basin. It generates revenue primarily from crude oil production — roughly 70% of total revenue — with natural gas and natural gas liquids making up the remainder. The company's competitive advantage lies in its large, contiguous acreage position in the Permian's most productive formations, which enables efficient, low-cost development through scale and operational expertise.
Market Cap
$51.6B
Revenue TTM
$15.2B
Net Income TTM
$403M
Net Margin
2.7%
FANG Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+0.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.67/$2.76
Revenue
$3.7B/$3.3B
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.08/$2.94
Revenue
$3.9B/$3.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.74/$2.00
Revenue
$3.0B/$3.3B
Q2 2026
EPS
$4.23/$3.74
Revenue
$4.2B/$3.8B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.67/$2.76 | -3.3% | $3.7B/$3.3B | +9.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.08/$2.94 | +4.8% | $3.9B/$3.5B | +11.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.74/$2.00 | -13.0% | $3.0B/$3.3B | -7.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.23/$3.74 | +13.1% | $4.2B/$3.8B | +10.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$17.1B
+12.8% YoY
FY2
$18.3B
+6.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$11.99
+741.5% YoY
FY2
$12.36
+3.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.6B
FCF Margin: 10.5%
Next Earnings
August 3, 2026
Expected EPS
$6.16
Expected Revenue
$5.0B
FANG beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
FANG Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $28.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Oil Exploration and Production
88.3%
+30.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Oil Exploration and Production is the largest disclosed segment at 88.3% of FY 2025 revenue, up 30.8% YoY.
FANG Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $98 — implies -46.4% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
46.4%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
FANG
32.0x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+31% premium
vs Energy Trailing P/E
FANG
32.0x
vs
Energy
15.5x
+107% premium
vs FANG 5Y Avg P/E
Today
32.0x
vs
5Y Average
12.0x
+167% premium
Forward PE
9.0x
S&P 500
18.8x
-52%
Energy
12.5x
-28%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
32.0x
S&P 500
24.4x
+31%
Energy
15.5x
+107%
5Y Avg
12.0x
+167%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Energy
0.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
6.6x
S&P 500
15.2x
-56%
Energy
7.8x
-15%
5Y Avg
5.3x
+26%
Price/FCF
9.9x
S&P 500
20.7x
-52%
Energy
13.8x
-29%
5Y Avg
13.0x
-24%
Price/Sales
3.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
+11%
Energy
1.4x
+143%
5Y Avg
3.0x
+16%
Dividend Yield
2.18%
S&P 500
1.91%
+14%
Energy
3.47%
-37%
5Y Avg
4.10%
-47%
| Metric | FANG | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg FANG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 9.0x | 18.8x-52% | 12.5x-28% | — |
| Trailing PE | 32.0x | 24.4x+31% | 15.5x+107% | 12.0x+167% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.6x | 15.2x-56% | 7.8x-15% | 5.3x+26% |
| Price/FCF | 9.9x | 20.7x-52% | 13.8x-29% | 13.0x-24% |
| Price/Sales | 3.4x | 3.1x+11% | 1.4x+143% | 3.0x+16% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.18% | 1.91% | 3.47% | 4.10% |
FANG trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolFANG Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
FANG generates $1.6B in free cash flow at a 10.5% margin — returns 6.1% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$15.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+18.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
41.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
22.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
2.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.43
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.6B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
10.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
6.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
0.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$106M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$14.4B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
9.0× FCF
~9.0 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
0.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
6.1%
Dividend
2.2%
Buyback
3.9%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$2.0B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$4.00
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
69.5%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
281M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageFANG Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Dividend Policy Risk
Scrapping the guaranteed 50% FCF return framework and variable dividends may trigger a rotation out of the stock by yield-focused retail and income investors.
High Risk
Commodity Price Risk
A resolution to the Middle East supply disruption combined with flat-to-lower OPEC production discipline could deflate the commodity premium baked into the current stock price.
Medium
Market Sentiment
The stock experienced a significant bearish movement in the market, reflecting negative investor sentiment.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why FANG Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Bullish analyst coverage
A bullish thesis on Diamondback Energy, Inc. was highlighted by @MoneyShow on X.com, suggesting positive sentiment among analysts.
Comprehensive investor resources
Diamondback Energy provides detailed business information for investors and analysts, enhancing transparency and confidence.
Extensive SEC filings
MarketBeat offers access to Diamondback Energy's complete SEC filing history, aiding in thorough financial analysis and due diligence.
Stock analysis availability
Latest stock analysis, price targets, and dividend information for Diamondback Energy are readily available, supporting informed investment decisions.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
FANG Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$183.50
52W Range Position
61%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$134.30
+36.6% from the low
52-Week High
$214.51
-14.5% from the high
1 Month
-10.76%
3 Month
-3.26%
YTD
+20.5%
1 Year
+23.3%
3Y CAGR
+13.1%
5Y CAGR
+16.3%
10Y CAGR
+7.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
FANG vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
9.0x
vs 6.4x median
+41% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+12.8%
vs +9.9% median
+28% above peer median
Net Margin
2.7%
vs 14.4% median
-82% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FAN FANG Diamondback Energy, Inc. | $51.6B | 9.0x | +12.8% | 2.7% | Buy | +19.0% |
MTD MTDR Matador Resources Company | $6.2B | 6.4x | +10.9% | 14.4% | Buy | +45.3% |
CTR CTRA Coterra Energy Inc. | $24.7B | 11.3x | +4.2% | 25.7% | Buy | +5.0% |
SM SM SM Energy Company | $3.1B | 3.5x | +15.0% | 3.4% | Buy | +29.7% |
PAR PARR Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. | $2.5B | 4.0x | +9.9% | 6.0% | Buy | +32.8% |
EOG EOG EOG Resources, Inc. | $69.2B | 7.5x | +9.7% | 23.4% | Buy | +14.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FANG Dividend and Capital Return
FANG returns capital mainly through $2.0B/year in buybacks (3.9% buyback yield), with a modest 2.18% dividend — combining for 6.1% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 8 consecutive years.
Dividend WatchFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
6.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.9%
Dividend Yield
2.18%
Payout Ratio
69.5%
How FANG Splits Its Return
Div 2.18%
Buyback 3.9%
Dividend 2.18%Buybacks 3.9%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$4.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
8Y
3Y Div CAGR
-23.6%
5Y Div CAGR
21.7%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$2.0B
Estimated Shares Retired
11M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.9%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
281M
At 3.9%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.15 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $4.00 | -51.7% | 4.6% | 7.3% |
| 2024 | $8.29 | +3.8% | 2.7% | 7.3% |
| 2023 | $7.99 | -10.8% | 3.3% | 8.5% |
| 2022 | $8.96 | +412.0% | 5.2% | 11.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsFANG Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 51 analysts covering the stock, 46 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 5 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $218, implying +19.0% from the current price of $184. The bear case scenario is $261 and the bull case is $546.
02What is the FANG stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for FANG is $218 based on 51 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $262 (+42.8% from today), and the low-end target is $100 (-45.5%). The base case model target is $414.
03Is Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG) stock overvalued in 2026?
FANG trades at 9.0x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for FANG in 2026 are: (1) Dividend Policy Risk — Scrapping the guaranteed 50% FCF return framework and variable dividends may trigger a rotation out of the stock by yield-focused retail and income investors. (2) Commodity Price Risk — A resolution to the Middle East supply disruption combined with flat-to-lower OPEC production discipline could deflate the commodity premium baked into the current stock price. (3) Market Sentiment — The stock experienced a significant bearish movement in the market, reflecting negative investor sentiment. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Diamondback Energy, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates FANG will report consensus revenue of $17.1B (+12.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $11.99 (+741.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $18.3B in revenue.
06When does Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG) report its next earnings?
Diamondback Energy, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-03. Consensus expects EPS of $6.16 and revenue of $5.0B. Over recent quarters, FANG has beaten EPS estimates 67% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Diamondback Energy, Inc. generate?
Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG) generated $1.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 10.5%. FANG returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.2% yield) and share repurchases ($2.0B TTM).