Upside case
Bull case
$83+32.4%
ELS would need investors to value it at roughly 41x earnings — about 10x more generous than today's 31x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Equity LifeStyle Properties, Inc. (ELS) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
21
analysts
13 bullish · 0 bearish · 21 covering ELS
Strong Buy
0
Buy
13
Hold
8
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$71
+12.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$48 – $83
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
21
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
30.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $12.1B
ELS price targets
Three scenarios for where ELS stock could go
Current
~$63
Confidence
71 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $63
Bear
$48
Base
$72
Bull
$83
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$72+14.6%
At 35x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$48-23.5%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 7x multiple contraction could push ELS down roughly 23% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Equity LifeStyle Properties, Inc.
ELS · NYSEReal EstateREIT - ResidentialDecember year-end
Equity LifeStyle Properties is a real estate investment trust that owns and operates manufactured home communities, RV resorts, and marinas across North America. It generates revenue primarily through site rental income from its properties — collecting monthly lot rents from residents and seasonal fees from vacationers — with property operations contributing the remainder. The company's competitive advantage lies in its portfolio of irreplaceable coastal and resort-location properties with high barriers to entry, creating a durable income stream from affordable housing in desirable locations.
Market Cap
$12.1B
Revenue TTM
$1.5B
Net Income TTM
$387M
Net Margin
25.2%
ELS Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
33%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+61.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.69/$0.41
Revenue
$373M/$393M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.75/$0.46
Revenue
$373M/$383M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.79/$0.54
Revenue
$374M/$382M
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.84/$0.55
Revenue
$398M/$396M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.69/$0.41 | +66.6% | $373M/$393M | -5.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.75/$0.46 | +61.3% | $373M/$383M | -2.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.79/$0.54 | +45.8% | $374M/$382M | -2.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.84/$0.55 | +53.8% | $398M/$396M | +0.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$1.6B
+5.4% YoY
FY2
$1.7B
+5.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.09
+8.2% YoY
FY2
$2.21
+5.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$334M
FCF Margin: 21.8%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
ELS beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
ELS Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $86M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Home Sales, Brokered Resales And Ancillary Services
100.0%
-26.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Home Sales, Brokered Resales And Ancillary Services is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, down 26.9% YoY.
ELS Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $59 — implies -6.4% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
6.4%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ELS
32.4x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+29% premium
vs Real Estate Trailing P/E
ELS
32.4x
vs
Real Estate
24.1x
+34% premium
vs ELS 5Y Avg P/E
Today
32.4x
vs
5Y Average
42.1x
23% discount
Forward PE
30.7x
S&P 500
19.1x
+61%
Real Estate
26.4x
+16%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
32.4x
S&P 500
25.1x
+29%
Real Estate
24.1x
+34%
5Y Avg
42.1x
-23%
PEG Ratio
3.13x
S&P 500
1.72x
+83%
Real Estate
1.25x
+151%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
21.3x
S&P 500
15.2x
+40%
Real Estate
16.7x
+28%
5Y Avg
27.9x
-24%
Price/FCF
36.3x
S&P 500
21.1x
+72%
Real Estate
15.4x
+135%
5Y Avg
48.2x
-25%
Price/Sales
7.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
+153%
Real Estate
3.0x
+166%
5Y Avg
9.6x
-18%
Dividend Yield
3.24%
S&P 500
1.87%
+73%
Real Estate
4.66%
-30%
5Y Avg
2.56%
+26%
| Metric | ELS | S&P 500 | Real Estate | 5Y Avg ELS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 30.7x | 19.1x+61% | 26.4x+16% | — |
| Trailing PE | 32.4x | 25.1x+29% | 24.1x+34% | 42.1x-23% |
| PEG Ratio | 3.13x | 1.72x+83% | 1.25x+151% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.3x | 15.2x+40% | 16.7x+28% | 27.9x-24% |
| Price/FCF | 36.3x | 21.1x+72% | 15.4x+135% | 48.2x-25% |
| Price/Sales | 7.9x | 3.1x+153% | 3.0x+166% | 9.6x-18% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.24% | 1.87% | 4.66% | 2.56% |
ELS trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolELS Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
ELS pays 3.2% total shareholder yield with 33.8% operating margin. Leverage is structural for REITs — debt capacity matters more than absolute ratio.
Property Operations
Revenue, margins, and distribution coverage
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$1.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+4.0%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
37.6%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
33.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
25.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.93
Operating Margin
NOI-equivalent margin — key for REIT property economics
33.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
7.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
6.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$26M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$3.3B
Leverage (Net Debt / FCF)
REITs carry structural leverage — higher ratios are expected
10.0× FCF
Asset-heavy model means debt/FCF above 10× is common and not a distress signal.
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
21.3%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (7.6%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.2%
Dividend
3.2%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.02
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
104.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
194M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. REITs carry structural leverage — debt/FCF ratios above 10× are normal and do not indicate distress.
Open full ratios pageELS Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Expense Inflation
ELS is facing significant pressure from rising costs in utilities, payroll, and repairs and maintenance. Managing these increases is a continuous challenge that could adversely affect profit margins.
High Risk
Segment Performance
The RV and marina segments are currently underperforming, with the RV portfolio experiencing a decline in seasonal and transient revenue. This has led to a lowered full-year guidance for these segments, indicating potential revenue shortfalls.
High Risk
Interest Rate Environment
Despite effective debt management, a high-interest-rate environment can limit ELS's capital allocation opportunities and increase the cost of new acquisitions. This could hinder growth and profitability.
Medium
Debt and Leverage
ELS's reliance on debt for expansion increases financial risk, especially if cash flow tightens. Although the company has a well-laddered debt maturity schedule, its Debt-to-Equity ratio is higher than many REITs, which could raise concerns among investors.
Medium
Market Sensitivity
ELS's performance is sensitive to broader economic fluctuations, including potential recessions. Economic downturns could negatively impact rental income and the overall market value of the company.
Medium
Revenue Concentration
A significant portion of ELS's revenue is derived from Florida, California, and Arizona. Economic stress in these regions could directly impact income and expenses, posing a risk to financial stability.
Lower
Operational and Regulatory Risks
As a real estate company, ELS faces operational risks such as customer retention, cost management, and compliance with regulatory changes. Additionally, adverse weather and public health crises could disrupt operations.
Lower
Revenue Booking Visibility
The transient RV business has limited revenue visibility beyond 90 days, with a substantial portion of revenue booked close to arrival. This uncertainty could affect financial forecasting and stability.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ELS Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Demographic Trends
ELS is well-positioned to benefit from favorable demographic trends, as over 70% of its portfolio caters to residents aged 55 and older. This focus on age-restricted communities and retirement destinations in states like Florida, Arizona, and California aligns with the growing demand for such housing.
Revenue Growth and Financial Performance
The company has demonstrated robust revenue growth, with Q1 2026 revenue reaching $397.6 million, an increase from the previous year. ELS has also shown consistent growth in Funds from Operations (FFO) and net income.
Dividend Growth
ELS has a strong track record of dividend increases, with 22 consecutive years of dividend growth and a 10-year dividend CAGR that significantly outpaces the REIT industry average. The company recently increased its annual dividend rate.
Analyst Sentiment
A majority of analysts covering ELS have a 'Buy' rating, with price targets indicating potential for stock appreciation. Recent analyst endorsements highlight the company's strong fundamentals, same-store revenue, and core FFO performance.
Property Fundamentals
Strong property-level fundamentals, including high occupancy rates and increasing rental income in its manufactured housing and RV segments, contribute to stable cash flows.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ELS Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$62.50
52W Range Position
40%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$58.15
+7.5% from the low
52-Week High
$69.00
-9.4% from the high
1 Month
-1.68%
3 Month
-5.93%
YTD
+4.5%
1 Year
-3.8%
3Y CAGR
-3.3%
5Y CAGR
-1.8%
10Y CAGR
+5.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ELS vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
30.7x
vs 59.6x median
-48% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.4%
vs +8.5% median
-36% below peer median
Net Margin
25.2%
vs 30.6% median
-17% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ELS ELS Equity LifeStyle Properties, Inc. | $12.1B | 30.7x | +5.4% | 25.2% | Buy | +12.9% |
SUI SUI Sun Communities, Inc. | $15.4B | 46.8x | -12.3% | 66.9% | Buy | +12.0% |
UMH UMH UMH Properties, Inc. | $1.3B | 148.1x | +11.3% | 10.8% | Buy | +5.1% |
NUV NUVB Nuvation Bio Inc. | $1.7B | — | +47.2% | -102.1% | Buy | +156.7% |
CPT CPT Camden Property Trust | $11.0B | 68.4x | +8.5% | 32.8% | Hold | +7.4% |
EQR EQR Equity Residential | $24.8B | 50.9x | +3.6% | 30.6% | Hold | +5.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ELS Dividend and Capital Return
ELS returns 3.2% total yield, led by a 3.24% dividend, raised 20 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
3.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
3.24%
Payout Ratio
1.0%
How ELS Splits Its Return
Div 3.24%
Dividend 3.24%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.02
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
20Y
3Y Div CAGR
7.9%
5Y Div CAGR
8.5%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
194M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.54 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.06 | +7.9% | 0.0% | 3.3% |
| 2024 | $1.91 | +6.7% | 0.0% | 2.8% |
| 2023 | $1.79 | +9.1% | 0.0% | 2.5% |
| 2022 | $1.64 | +13.1% | 0.0% | 2.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsELS Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Equity LifeStyle Properties, Inc. (ELS) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Equity LifeStyle Properties, Inc. (ELS) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 21 analysts covering the stock, 13 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 8 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $71, implying +12.9% from the current price of $63. The bear case scenario is $48 and the bull case is $83.
02What is the ELS stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ELS is $71 based on 21 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $75 (+20.0% from today), and the low-end target is $66 (+5.6%). The base case model target is $72.
03Is Equity LifeStyle Properties, Inc. (ELS) stock overvalued in 2026?
ELS trades at 30.7x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Equity LifeStyle Properties, Inc. (ELS) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ELS in 2026 are: (1) Expense Inflation — ELS is facing significant pressure from rising costs in utilities, payroll, and repairs and maintenance. (2) Segment Performance — The RV and marina segments are currently underperforming, with the RV portfolio experiencing a decline in seasonal and transient revenue. (3) Interest Rate Environment — Despite effective debt management, a high-interest-rate environment can limit ELS's capital allocation opportunities and increase the cost of new acquisitions. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Equity LifeStyle Properties, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ELS will report consensus revenue of $1.6B (+5.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.09 (+8.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $1.7B in revenue.
06When does Equity LifeStyle Properties, Inc. (ELS) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for ELS is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Equity LifeStyle Properties, Inc. generate?
Equity LifeStyle Properties, Inc. (ELS) generated $334M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 21.8%. ELS returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.2% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).