Upside case
Bull case
$126+0.3%
SUI would need investors to value it at roughly 47x earnings — about 0x more generous than today's 47x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Sun Communities, Inc. (SUI) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
20
analysts
12 bullish · 3 bearish · 20 covering SUI
Strong Buy
0
Buy
12
Hold
5
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$140
+11.4% vs today
Scenario Range
$30 – $126
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
20
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
47.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $15.5B
SUI price targets
Three scenarios for where SUI stock could go
Current
~$126
Confidence
42 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $126
Bear
$30
Base
$76
Bull
$126
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$76-39.3%
At 29x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$30-75.8%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 36x multiple contraction could push SUI down roughly 76% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Sun Communities, Inc.
SUI · NYSEReal EstateREIT - ResidentialDecember year-end
Sun Communities is a real estate investment trust that owns and operates manufactured housing communities, RV resorts, and marinas across North America and the UK. It generates revenue primarily through site rental income from manufactured housing residents—about 70% of total revenue—with the remainder coming from RV and marina operations including slip rentals, storage, and ancillary services. The company's competitive advantage lies in its scale as one of the largest operators in the fragmented manufactured housing sector, combined with high occupancy rates and barriers to entry for new community development.
Market Cap
$15.5B
Revenue TTM
$2.3B
Net Income TTM
$1.6B
Net Margin
66.9%
SUI Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+9.7%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.76/$1.67
Revenue
$607M/$713M
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.28/$2.18
Revenue
$697M/$509M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.99/$0.39
Revenue
$515M/$505M
Q2 2026
EPS
$-0.07/$1.31
Revenue
$508M/$472M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.76/$1.67 | +5.4% | $607M/$713M | -14.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.28/$2.18 | +4.6% | $697M/$509M | +36.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.99/$0.39 | +153.0% | $515M/$505M | +2.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $-0.07/$1.31 | -105.3% | $508M/$472M | +7.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$2.0B
-12.3% YoY
FY2
$1.8B
-10.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$7.32
-40.9% YoY
FY2
$6.58
-10.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$884M
FCF Margin: 38.0%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
SUI beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
SUI Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $2.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
MH
50.9%
-0.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
MH is the largest disclosed segment at 50.9% of FY 2025 revenue, down 0.9% YoY.
SUI Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $233 — implies +83.9% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
83.9%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
SUI
11.6x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
54% discount
vs Real Estate Trailing P/E
SUI
11.6x
vs
Real Estate
24.3x
52% discount
vs SUI 5Y Avg P/E
Today
11.6x
vs
5Y Average
79.7x
85% discount
Forward PE
47.1x
S&P 500
19.1x
+147%
Real Estate
26.5x
+78%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
11.6x
S&P 500
25.2x
-54%
Real Estate
24.3x
-52%
5Y Avg
79.7x
-85%
PEG Ratio
0.22x
S&P 500
1.75x
-87%
Real Estate
1.22x
-82%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
16.9x
S&P 500
15.3x
+11%
Real Estate
16.7x
+1%
5Y Avg
21.4x
-21%
Price/FCF
18.0x
S&P 500
21.3x
-16%
Real Estate
15.7x
+14%
5Y Avg
22.0x
-18%
Price/Sales
6.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
+115%
Real Estate
3.0x
+121%
5Y Avg
6.7x
+1%
Dividend Yield
6.64%
S&P 500
1.88%
+254%
Real Estate
4.67%
+42%
5Y Avg
3.38%
+96%
| Metric | SUI | S&P 500 | Real Estate | 5Y Avg SUI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 47.1x | 19.1x+147% | 26.5x+78% | — |
| Trailing PE | 11.6x | 25.2x-54% | 24.3x-52% | 79.7x-85% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.22x | 1.75x-87% | 1.22x-82% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.9x | 15.3x+11% | 16.7x | 21.4x-21% |
| Price/FCF | 18.0x | 21.3x-16% | 15.7x+14% | 22.0x-18% |
| Price/Sales | 6.7x | 3.1x+115% | 3.0x+121% | 6.7x |
| Dividend Yield | 6.64% | 1.88% | 4.67% | 3.38% |
SUI trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolSUI Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
SUI pays 10.1% total shareholder yield with 24.0% operating margin. Leverage is structural for REITs — debt capacity matters more than absolute ratio.
Property Operations
Revenue, margins, and distribution coverage
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$2.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-22.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
51.9%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
24.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
66.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$12.38
Operating Margin
NOI-equivalent margin — key for REIT property economics
24.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
3.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
12.2%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$636M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$1.2B
Leverage (Net Debt / FCF)
REITs carry structural leverage — higher ratios are expected
1.4× FCF
Asset-heavy model means debt/FCF above 10× is common and not a distress signal.
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
21.6%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (3.2%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
10.1%
Dividend
6.6%
Buyback
3.5%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$539M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$8.36
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
76.0%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
123M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. REITs carry structural leverage — debt/FCF ratios above 10× are normal and do not indicate distress.
Open full ratios pageSUI Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
RV Property Performance
Sun Communities faces a notable risk of declining revenue stability due to lower expectations for its RV properties, as indicated by a decrease in same-store guidance. This decline could significantly impact overall financial performance.
High Risk
Capital Costs and Financing
The company is challenged in securing new debt financing or refinancing existing debt under favorable terms due to market volatility. Increased costs of capital from fluctuations in equity and debt markets pose a substantial risk to financial stability.
Medium
Demand for Sector
There is a risk that demand for the manufactured housing and residential vehicle communities sector may have peaked. The target demographic is potentially shifting towards senior housing facilities, which could affect occupancy rates and revenue.
Medium
Valuation Concerns
Analyses suggest that Sun Communities may be overvalued, with low scores for value, growth, and momentum investing. This could lead to a correction in stock price if market sentiment shifts.
Medium
Market Volatility
Fluctuations in equity and debt markets can increase capital costs for Sun Communities. This volatility can affect the company's ability to finance operations and growth.
Lower
Operational Costs
Potential fuel cost risks could impact the company's financial performance. Rising operational costs may squeeze margins if not managed effectively.
Lower
Interest Rate Changes
Rising interest rates typically lead to declining bond prices, which can affect investments. This environment may create challenges for financing and capital allocation.
Lower
Regulatory Landscape
Evolving regulations surrounding cryptocurrencies can impact the adoption and trading activity of the SUI cryptocurrency. Regulatory changes may introduce uncertainty in the market.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why SUI Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Institutional Interest and Adoption
Sygnum Bank's integration of the Sui network for institutional clients enhances SUI's credibility and liquidity by offering custody, trading, and staking services. Additionally, multiple financial institutions have filed for SUI-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs), indicating growing institutional interest.
DeFi Growth
The total value locked (TVL) in Sui's DeFi ecosystem has reached significant levels, driven by increasing stablecoin adoption that fuels liquidity. Protocols like Suilend have experienced substantial increases in TVL, showcasing the ecosystem's growth potential.
Corporate Treasury Investment
Nasdaq-listed SUI Group Holdings has made a substantial investment of $450 million in SUI, reflecting strong corporate backing and confidence in the project's future. This investment is a significant endorsement of SUI's potential.
Technical Indicators and Price Action
Recent technical analysis indicates that SUI is building a strong bullish case, with a positive weighted funding rate and a 'golden cross' pattern suggesting a potential uptrend. Whale accumulation and consolidation patterns are also observed, which could lead to a breakout towards $1.10.
Long-Term Potential
Long-term forecasts predict that SUI's price could reach $2.38 by 2030, with potential highs up to $3.55. Other projections suggest SUI could reach $1.94 by 2041, indicating significant growth potential over the long term.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
SUI Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$125.92
52W Range Position
47%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$115.53
+9.0% from the low
52-Week High
$137.85
-8.7% from the high
1 Month
-1.50%
3 Month
+0.18%
YTD
+3.1%
1 Year
+1.0%
3Y CAGR
-2.5%
5Y CAGR
-5.2%
10Y CAGR
+5.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
SUI vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
47.1x
vs 66.2x median
-29% below peer median
Revenue Growth
-12.3%
vs +5.4% median
-327% below peer median
Net Margin
66.9%
vs 25.2% median
+165% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SUI SUI Sun Communities, Inc. | $15.5B | 47.1x | -12.3% | 66.9% | Buy | +11.4% |
ELS ELS Equity LifeStyle Properties, Inc. | $12.3B | 31.1x | +5.4% | 25.2% | Buy | +11.4% |
UMH UMH UMH Properties, Inc. | $1.3B | 148.4x | +11.3% | 10.8% | Buy | +4.9% |
CPT CPT Camden Property Trust | $11.0B | 68.4x | +8.5% | 32.8% | Hold | +7.3% |
MAA MAA Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. | $15.2B | 39.0x | +2.2% | 18.2% | Buy | +10.3% |
UDR UDR UDR, Inc. | $12.1B | 66.2x | +2.9% | 28.6% | Buy | +8.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
SUI Dividend and Capital Return
SUI returns 10.2% total yield, led by a 6.67% dividend, raised 9 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 3.5%.
Dividend WatchFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
10.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.5%
Dividend Yield
6.67%
Payout Ratio
76.0%
How SUI Splits Its Return
Div 6.67%
Buyback 3.5%
Dividend 6.67%Buybacks 3.5%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$8.36
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
9Y
3Y Div CAGR
31.8%
5Y Div CAGR
20.6%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$539M
Estimated Shares Retired
4M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
123M
At 3.5%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.12 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $8.06 | +114.4% | 3.5% | 10.2% |
| 2024 | $3.76 | +1.1% | 0.0% | 3.1% |
| 2023 | $3.72 | +5.7% | 0.1% | 3.0% |
| 2022 | $3.52 | +6.0% | 0.0% | 2.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsSUI Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Sun Communities, Inc. (SUI) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Sun Communities, Inc. (SUI) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 20 analysts covering the stock, 12 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 5 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $140, implying +11.4% from the current price of $126. The bear case scenario is $30 and the bull case is $126.
02What is the SUI stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for SUI is $140 based on 20 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $151 (+19.9% from today), and the low-end target is $127 (+0.9%). The base case model target is $76.
03Is Sun Communities, Inc. (SUI) stock overvalued in 2026?
SUI trades at 47.1x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Sun Communities, Inc. (SUI) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for SUI in 2026 are: (1) RV Property Performance — Sun Communities faces a notable risk of declining revenue stability due to lower expectations for its RV properties, as indicated by a decrease in same-store guidance. (2) Capital Costs and Financing — The company is challenged in securing new debt financing or refinancing existing debt under favorable terms due to market volatility. (3) Demand for Sector — There is a risk that demand for the manufactured housing and residential vehicle communities sector may have peaked. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Sun Communities, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates SUI will report consensus revenue of $2.0B (-12.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $7.32 (-40.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $1.8B in revenue.
06When does Sun Communities, Inc. (SUI) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for SUI is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Sun Communities, Inc. generate?
Sun Communities, Inc. (SUI) generated $884M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 38.0%. SUI returns capital to shareholders through dividends (6.7% yield) and share repurchases ($539M TTM).