Upside case
Bull case
$1166+39.4%
EME would need investors to value it at roughly 40x earnings — about 11x more generous than today's 29x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
13
analysts
8 bullish · 0 bearish · 13 covering EME
Strong Buy
0
Buy
8
Hold
5
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$988
+18.1% vs today
Scenario Range
$557 – $1166
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
13
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
28.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $37.3B
EME price targets
Three scenarios for where EME stock could go
Current
~$837
Confidence
56 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $837
Bear
$557
Base
$885
Bull
$1166
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$885+5.8%
This is close to how the market is already pricing EME — at roughly 30x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$557-33.4%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 10x multiple contraction could push EME down roughly 33% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
EMCOR Group, Inc.
EME · NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionDecember year-end
EMCOR Group is a leading provider of electrical and mechanical construction and facilities services for industrial, commercial, and institutional clients. It generates revenue primarily through construction contracts for new facilities and ongoing maintenance services for existing infrastructure — with its facilities services segment contributing roughly 60% of revenue. The company's competitive advantage lies in its national scale, technical expertise across complex systems, and long-term client relationships that drive recurring maintenance business.
Market Cap
$37.3B
Revenue TTM
$17.8B
Net Income TTM
$1.3B
Net Margin
7.5%
EME Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+21.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$6.72/$5.74
Revenue
$4.3B/$4.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$6.57/$6.54
Revenue
$4.3B/$4.3B
Q1 2026
EPS
$7.19/$6.68
Revenue
$4.5B/$4.3B
Q2 2026
EPS
$6.84/$5.90
Revenue
$4.6B/$4.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $6.72/$5.74 | +17.1% | $4.3B/$4.1B | +4.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $6.57/$6.54 | +0.5% | $4.3B/$4.3B | +0.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $7.19/$6.68 | +7.6% | $4.5B/$4.3B | +5.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $6.84/$5.90 | +15.9% | $4.6B/$4.2B | +10.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$19.3B
+8.6% YoY
FY2
$20.9B
+8.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$29.09
-1.8% YoY
FY2
$30.31
+4.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.1B
FCF Margin: 6.1%
Next Earnings
July 30, 2026
Expected EPS
$7.24
Expected Revenue
$4.7B
EME beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
EME Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $17.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
United States Mechanical Construction And Facilities Services
41.4%
+10.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
100.0%
+16.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
United States Mechanical Construction And Facilities Services is the largest disclosed segment at 41.4% of FY 2025 revenue, up 10.3% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 100.0%, up 16.8% YoY.
EME Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $1231 — implies +47.1% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
47.1%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
EME
29.7x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+21% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
EME
29.7x
vs
Industrials
25.6x
+16% premium
vs EME 5Y Avg P/E
Today
29.7x
vs
5Y Average
19.1x
+56% premium
Forward PE
28.5x
S&P 500
18.8x
+52%
Industrials
21.2x
+35%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
29.7x
S&P 500
24.4x
+21%
Industrials
25.6x
+16%
5Y Avg
19.1x
+56%
PEG Ratio
0.47x
S&P 500
1.66x
-72%
Industrials
1.65x
-72%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
20.1x
S&P 500
15.2x
+32%
Industrials
13.9x
+44%
5Y Avg
12.0x
+68%
Price/FCF
31.3x
S&P 500
20.7x
+51%
Industrials
20.0x
+56%
5Y Avg
18.5x
+69%
Price/Sales
2.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
-29%
Industrials
1.6x
+40%
5Y Avg
1.1x
+108%
Dividend Yield
0.12%
S&P 500
1.91%
-94%
Industrials
1.21%
-90%
5Y Avg
0.29%
-59%
| Metric | EME | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg EME |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 28.5x | 18.8x+52% | 21.2x+35% | — |
| Trailing PE | 29.7x | 24.4x+21% | 25.6x+16% | 19.1x+56% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.47x | 1.66x-72% | 1.65x-72% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.1x | 15.2x+32% | 13.9x+44% | 12.0x+68% |
| Price/FCF | 31.3x | 20.7x+51% | 20.0x+56% | 18.5x+69% |
| Price/Sales | 2.2x | 3.1x-29% | 1.6x+40% | 1.1x+108% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.12% | 1.91% | 1.21% | 0.29% |
EME trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolEME Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
EME 46.8% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage — returns 1.7% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$17.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+18.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
19.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
9.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
7.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$29.63
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.1B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
6.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
46.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
14.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.1B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$268M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
38.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.7%
Dividend
0.1%
Buyback
1.6%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$586M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.00
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
3.5%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
45M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageEME Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Execution Risk
The key catalyst for EMCOR Group is how efficiently it executes its backlog at healthy margins, with immediate risk from any slowdown or margin pressure in large U.S. construction projects.
Medium
Market Volatility
The initial market pullback on guidance indicates potential volatility, though it does not materially alter the core debate around execution and margins.
Medium
Demand Slowdown
Persistent demand for data centers, reshoring, and infrastructure is a positive, but any slowdown in these areas could negatively impact EMCOR's trajectory.
Lower
Valuation Risk
With a consensus price target suggesting an 18.3% upside, valuation appears reasonable, but any miss on execution could lead to de-rating.
High Risk
Guidance Uncertainty
EMCOR's 2026 outlook hinges on executing upgraded guidance, with risks tied to any deviations from projected demand or margin performance.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why EME Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Strong revenue and earnings growth
Analysts project EMCOR to achieve roughly US$21.2 billion in revenue and US$1.4 billion in earnings by 2028, indicating robust financial performance.
Technology edge over peers
EMCOR's technological advancements are expected to keep it well ahead of competitors, driving future growth.
Energy retrofit exposure
The company's focus on energy retrofits positions it to capitalize on growing demand for sustainable infrastructure solutions.
Bullish analyst coverage
The Wealth Dynasty Report's Substack highlights a bullish thesis on EMCOR, reflecting positive sentiment among analysts.
Comprehensive equity research
Full equity research reports, including valuation and management scoring, support the investment case for EMCOR.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
EME Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$836.59
52W Range Position
76%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$478.16
+75.0% from the low
52-Week High
$950.74
-12.0% from the high
1 Month
-4.63%
3 Month
+13.41%
YTD
+31.0%
1 Year
+72.4%
3Y CAGR
+68.5%
5Y CAGR
+47.9%
10Y CAGR
+33.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
EME vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
28.5x
vs 40.3x median
-29% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+8.6%
vs +8.8% median
-2% below peer median
Net Margin
7.5%
vs 3.7% median
+103% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EME EME EMCOR Group, Inc. | $37.3B | 28.5x | +8.6% | 7.5% | Buy | +18.1% |
PWR PWR Quanta Services, Inc. | $105.4B | 50.2x | +13.2% | 3.7% | Buy | -4.0% |
MTZ MTZ MasTec, Inc. | $29.9B | 43.0x | +11.4% | 3.0% | Buy | +9.8% |
WLD WLDN Willdan Group, Inc. | $1.3B | 21.6x | +8.1% | 8.2% | Buy | +32.0% |
MYR MYRG MYR Group Inc. | $7.2B | 40.3x | +8.8% | 3.7% | Hold | -10.5% |
PRI PRIM Primoris Services Corporation | $5.5B | 20.9x | +7.2% | 3.3% | Buy | +50.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
EME Dividend and Capital Return
EME returns capital mainly through $586M/year in buybacks (1.6% buyback yield), with a modest 0.12% dividend — combining for 1.7% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 5 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
1.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.6%
Dividend Yield
0.12%
Payout Ratio
3.5%
How EME Splits Its Return
Buyback 1.6%
Dividend 0.12%Buybacks 1.6%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
5Y
3Y Div CAGR
22.8%
5Y Div CAGR
25.6%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$586M
Estimated Shares Retired
700.8K
Approx. Share Reduction
1.6%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
45M
At 1.6%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.80 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.00 | +7.5% | 2.1% | 2.3% |
| 2024 | $0.93 | +34.8% | 2.3% | 2.5% |
| 2023 | $0.69 | +27.8% | 1.2% | 1.6% |
| 2022 | $0.54 | +3.8% | 8.9% | 9.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsEME Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 13 analysts covering the stock, 8 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 5 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $988, implying +18.1% from the current price of $837. The bear case scenario is $557 and the bull case is $1166.
02What is the EME stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for EME is $988 based on 13 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $1100 (+31.5% from today), and the low-end target is $918 (+9.7%). The base case model target is $885.
03Is EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME) stock overvalued in 2026?
EME trades at 28.5x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for EME in 2026 are: (1) Execution Risk — The key catalyst for EMCOR Group is how efficiently it executes its backlog at healthy margins, with immediate risk from any slowdown or margin pressure in large U. (2) Guidance Uncertainty — EMCOR's 2026 outlook hinges on executing upgraded guidance, with risks tied to any deviations from projected demand or margin performance. (3) Market Volatility — The initial market pullback on guidance indicates potential volatility, though it does not materially alter the core debate around execution and margins. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is EMCOR Group, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates EME will report consensus revenue of $19.3B (+8.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $29.09 (-1.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $20.9B in revenue.
06When does EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME) report its next earnings?
EMCOR Group, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-30. Consensus expects EPS of $7.24 and revenue of $4.7B. Over recent quarters, EME has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does EMCOR Group, Inc. generate?
EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME) generated $1.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 6.1%. EME returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.1% yield) and share repurchases ($586M TTM).