Upside case
Bull case
$1479+56.7%
EME would need investors to value it at roughly 51x earnings — about 18x more generous than today's 32x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
12
analysts
7 bullish · 0 bearish · 12 covering EME
Strong Buy
0
Buy
7
Hold
5
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$932
-1.3% vs today
Scenario Range
$364 – $1479
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
12
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
32.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $42.0B
EME price targets
Three scenarios for where EME stock could go
Current
~$944
Confidence
74 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $944
Bear
$364
Base
$1445
Bull
$1479
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$1445+53.2%
At 49x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$364-61.4%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 20x multiple contraction could push EME down roughly 61% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
EMCOR Group, Inc.
EME · NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionDecember year-end
EMCOR Group is a leading provider of electrical and mechanical construction and facilities services for industrial, commercial, and institutional clients. It generates revenue primarily through construction contracts for new facilities and ongoing maintenance services for existing infrastructure — with its facilities services segment contributing roughly 60% of revenue. The company's competitive advantage lies in its national scale, technical expertise across complex systems, and long-term client relationships that drive recurring maintenance business.
Market Cap
$42.0B
Revenue TTM
$17.8B
Net Income TTM
$1.3B
Net Margin
7.5%
EME Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+21.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$6.72/$5.74
Revenue
$4.3B/$4.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$6.57/$6.54
Revenue
$4.3B/$4.3B
Q1 2026
EPS
$7.19/$6.68
Revenue
$4.5B/$4.3B
Q2 2026
EPS
$6.84/$5.90
Revenue
$4.6B/$4.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $6.72/$5.74 | +17.1% | $4.3B/$4.1B | +4.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $6.57/$6.54 | +0.5% | $4.3B/$4.3B | +0.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $7.19/$6.68 | +7.6% | $4.5B/$4.3B | +5.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $6.84/$5.90 | +15.9% | $4.6B/$4.2B | +10.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$20.2B
+13.9% YoY
FY2
$23.2B
+14.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$35.35
+19.3% YoY
FY2
$43.18
+22.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.1B
FCF Margin: 6.1%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
EME beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
EME Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $17.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
United States Mechanical Construction And Facilities Services
41.4%
+10.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
100.0%
+16.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
United States Mechanical Construction And Facilities Services is the largest disclosed segment at 41.4% of FY 2025 revenue, up 10.3% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 100.0%, up 16.8% YoY.
EME Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $808 — implies -10.5% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
10.5%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
EME
33.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+33% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
EME
33.5x
vs
Industrials
25.9x
+29% premium
vs EME 5Y Avg P/E
Today
33.5x
vs
5Y Average
19.1x
+76% premium
Forward PE
32.2x
S&P 500
19.1x
+69%
Industrials
20.8x
+55%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
33.5x
S&P 500
25.2x
+33%
Industrials
25.9x
+29%
5Y Avg
19.1x
+76%
PEG Ratio
0.53x
S&P 500
1.75x
-70%
Industrials
1.59x
-67%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
22.6x
S&P 500
15.3x
+48%
Industrials
13.9x
+63%
5Y Avg
12.0x
+89%
Price/FCF
35.3x
S&P 500
21.3x
+66%
Industrials
20.6x
+71%
5Y Avg
18.5x
+91%
Price/Sales
2.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
-21%
Industrials
1.6x
+56%
5Y Avg
1.1x
+135%
Dividend Yield
0.11%
S&P 500
1.88%
-94%
Industrials
1.24%
-91%
5Y Avg
0.29%
-64%
| Metric | EME | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg EME |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 32.2x | 19.1x+69% | 20.8x+55% | — |
| Trailing PE | 33.5x | 25.2x+33% | 25.9x+29% | 19.1x+76% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.53x | 1.75x-70% | 1.59x-67% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.6x | 15.3x+48% | 13.9x+63% | 12.0x+89% |
| Price/FCF | 35.3x | 21.3x+66% | 20.6x+71% | 18.5x+91% |
| Price/Sales | 2.5x | 3.1x-21% | 1.6x+56% | 1.1x+135% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.11% | 1.88% | 1.24% | 0.29% |
EME trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolEME Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
EME 46.8% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage — returns 1.5% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$17.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+18.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
19.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
9.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
7.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$29.63
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.1B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
6.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
46.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
14.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.1B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$268M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
38.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.5%
Dividend
0.1%
Buyback
1.4%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$586M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.00
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
3.5%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
45M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageEME Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Finance & Corporate
Goodwill impairments, debt and financing, corporate activity and growth, and shareholder rights pose significant risks. Governance provisions could make acquisitions more difficult, while economic or market factors may influence decision‑making and backtested performance may differ from actual results.
High Risk
Macro & Political
Worsening financial and macroeconomic conditions could adversely affect revenues and profitability, as many clients depend on credit availability for their projects. Natural and human disruptions, exchange rate fluctuations, and trade changes add further uncertainty.
High Risk
Leverage & Currency Mismatch
Emerging‑market corporates have increased leverage and overseas borrowing, exposing them to heightened interest‑rate and currency risks if not adequately hedged. This could create vulnerabilities in corporate balance sheets and potentially spill over into the broader financial system.
Medium
Ability to Sell
Competition and market demand fluctuations, such as reduced hyperscaler capital expenditures, can lower demand for services in the technology sector. On‑shoring manufacturing and shifts in the non‑residential construction outlook add additional uncertainty.
Medium
Technology & Innovation
Risks include challenges in innovation, new product development, reliance on technology, cybersecurity threats, and intellectual property protection. These factors could impede growth and increase operating costs.
Lower
Legal & Regulatory
Regulatory changes and compliance requirements pose risks that could impact operations and increase costs. Failure to adapt to evolving regulations may result in penalties or operational restrictions.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why EME Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Robust 2025 Revenue & Earnings Growth
EMCOR reported significant revenue and net income increases in 2025, with upbeat guidance for 2026. The company's backlog of projects remains strong, indicating continued demand for its services. Profitability metrics such as gross margin, operating margin, and net profit margin are improving.
Data Center Segment Surge
The data center segment has seen exceptional growth, with Remaining Performance Obligations (RPOs) soaring year-over-year. This reflects strong demand in high‑tech manufacturing and infrastructure projects.
Strategic Acquisitions Fuel Service Expansion
EMCOR has pursued acquisitions such as Miller Electric Company and smaller deals to broaden its service offerings. Investments in technology and prefabrication are boosting project efficiency.
Commitment to Shareholder Returns
The company has a history of increasing dividends and recently announced a $500 million share repurchase authorization, signaling confidence in future performance and a commitment to returning value.
Strong Balance Sheet and Cash Reserves
EMCOR maintains a debt‑free balance sheet with robust cash reserves, enhancing financial stability. Its return on equity (ROE) and return on invested capital (ROIC) are impressive.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
EME Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$943.75
52W Range Position
99%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$427.90
+120.6% from the low
52-Week High
$950.74
-0.7% from the high
1 Month
+24.58%
3 Month
+23.47%
YTD
+47.8%
1 Year
+117.9%
3Y CAGR
+78.3%
5Y CAGR
+50.0%
10Y CAGR
+34.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
EME vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
32.2x
vs 46.8x median
-31% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+13.9%
vs +14.3% median
-3% below peer median
Net Margin
7.5%
vs 3.7% median
+103% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EME EME EMCOR Group, Inc. | $42.0B | 32.2x | +13.9% | 7.5% | Buy | -1.3% |
PWR PWR Quanta Services, Inc. | $117.8B | 60.0x | +14.9% | 3.7% | Buy | -17.6% |
MTZ MTZ MasTec, Inc. | $34.2B | 51.1x | +14.3% | 3.0% | Buy | -23.8% |
WLD WLDN Willdan Group, Inc. | $1.1B | 18.4x | +8.0% | 7.7% | Buy | +55.2% |
MYR MYRG MYR Group Inc. | $7.1B | 46.8x | +8.0% | 3.7% | Hold | -20.4% |
PRI PRIM Primoris Services Corporation | $5.5B | 16.9x | +17.2% | 3.3% | Buy | +58.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
EME Dividend and Capital Return
EME returns capital mainly through $586M/year in buybacks (1.4% buyback yield), with a modest 0.11% dividend — combining for 1.5% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 6 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
1.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.4%
Dividend Yield
0.11%
Payout Ratio
3.5%
How EME Splits Its Return
Buyback 1.4%
Dividend 0.11%Buybacks 1.4%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
6Y
3Y Div CAGR
22.8%
5Y Div CAGR
25.6%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$586M
Estimated Shares Retired
621.2K
Approx. Share Reduction
1.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
45M
At 1.4%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.80 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.00 | +7.5% | 2.1% | 2.3% |
| 2024 | $0.93 | +34.8% | 2.3% | 2.5% |
| 2023 | $0.69 | +27.8% | 1.2% | 1.6% |
| 2022 | $0.54 | +3.8% | 8.9% | 9.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsEME Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 12 analysts covering the stock, 7 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 5 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $932, implying -1.3% from the current price of $944. The bear case scenario is $364 and the bull case is $1479.
02What is the EME stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for EME is $932 based on 12 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $945 (+0.1% from today), and the low-end target is $918 (-2.7%). The base case model target is $1445.
03Is EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME) stock overvalued in 2026?
EME trades at 32.2x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for EME in 2026 are: (1) Finance & Corporate — Goodwill impairments, debt and financing, corporate activity and growth, and shareholder rights pose significant risks. (2) Macro & Political — Worsening financial and macroeconomic conditions could adversely affect revenues and profitability, as many clients depend on credit availability for their projects. (3) Leverage & Currency Mismatch — Emerging‑market corporates have increased leverage and overseas borrowing, exposing them to heightened interest‑rate and currency risks if not adequately hedged. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is EMCOR Group, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates EME will report consensus revenue of $20.2B (+13.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $35.35 (+19.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $23.2B in revenue.
06When does EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for EME is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does EMCOR Group, Inc. generate?
EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME) generated $1.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 6.1%. EME returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.1% yield) and share repurchases ($586M TTM).