Upside case
Bull case
$690-12.4%
The bull case prices ESLT at 47x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Elbit Systems Ltd. (ESLT) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
6
analysts
1 bullish · 0 bearish · 6 covering ESLT
Strong Buy
0
Buy
1
Hold
5
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$950
+20.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$330 – $690
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
6
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
53.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $36.9B
ESLT price targets
Three scenarios for where ESLT stock could go
Current
~$788
Confidence
52 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $788
Bear
$330
Base
$524
Bull
$690
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$524-33.5%
At 36x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$330-58.1%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 31x multiple contraction could push ESLT down roughly 58% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Elbit Systems Ltd.
ESLT · NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseDecember year-end
Elbit Systems is a defense technology company that develops and supplies advanced military systems for airborne, land, and naval applications. It generates revenue primarily through defense contracts with governments worldwide — including aircraft systems, unmanned platforms, electro-optics, and command-and-control solutions — with Israel being its largest market. The company's competitive advantage lies in its deep expertise in complex defense systems integration and its position as a trusted supplier to the Israeli military, which serves as a proving ground for its technologies.
Market Cap
$36.9B
Revenue TTM
$8.2B
Net Income TTM
$588M
Net Margin
7.1%
ESLT Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+16.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$3.23/$2.57
Revenue
$2.0B/$2.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.35/$2.75
Revenue
$1.9B/$2.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.56/$3.23
Revenue
$2.1B/$2.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$3.87/$3.44
Revenue
$2.2B/$2.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $3.23/$2.57 | +25.7% | $2.0B/$2.0B | -0.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.35/$2.75 | +21.8% | $1.9B/$2.1B | -6.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.56/$3.23 | +10.2% | $2.1B/$2.1B | +2.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.87/$3.44 | +12.5% | $2.2B/$2.1B | +2.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$9.1B
+10.2% YoY
FY2
$10.0B
+10.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$11.74
-3.9% YoY
FY2
$11.64
-0.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$613M
FCF Margin: 7.4%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
ESLT beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
ESLT Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $7.9B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Product
91.9%
+34.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
ISRAEL
32.2%
+119.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Product is the largest disclosed segment at 91.9% of FY 2025 revenue, up 34.8% YoY.
ISRAEL is the largest reported region at 32.2%, up 119.0% YoY.
ESLT Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $209 — implies -73.5% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
73.5%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ESLT
69.2x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+183% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
ESLT
69.2x
vs
Industrials
25.6x
+171% premium
vs ESLT 5Y Avg P/E
Today
69.2x
vs
5Y Average
37.1x
+86% premium
Forward PE
53.9x
S&P 500
18.8x
+186%
Industrials
21.2x
+154%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
69.2x
S&P 500
24.4x
+183%
Industrials
25.6x
+171%
5Y Avg
37.1x
+86%
PEG Ratio
4.74x
S&P 500
1.66x
+185%
Industrials
1.65x
+187%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
43.4x
S&P 500
15.2x
+185%
Industrials
13.9x
+212%
5Y Avg
20.6x
+110%
Price/FCF
61.7x
S&P 500
20.7x
+198%
Industrials
20.0x
+208%
5Y Avg
38.4x
+61%
Price/Sales
4.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
+50%
Industrials
1.6x
+198%
5Y Avg
1.9x
+145%
Dividend Yield
0.33%
S&P 500
1.91%
-83%
Industrials
1.21%
-73%
5Y Avg
0.87%
-63%
| Metric | ESLT | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg ESLT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 53.9x | 18.8x+186% | 21.2x+154% | — |
| Trailing PE | 69.2x | 24.4x+183% | 25.6x+171% | 37.1x+86% |
| PEG Ratio | 4.74x | 1.66x+185% | 1.65x+187% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 43.4x | 15.2x+185% | 13.9x+212% | 20.6x+110% |
| Price/FCF | 61.7x | 20.7x+198% | 20.0x+208% | 38.4x+61% |
| Price/Sales | 4.6x | 3.1x+50% | 1.6x+198% | 1.9x+145% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.33% | 1.91% | 1.21% | 0.87% |
ESLT trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolESLT Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
ESLT 11.7% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$8.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+14.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
24.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
9.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
7.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$12.22
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$613M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
7.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
11.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
4.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$635M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$330M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.5× FCF
~0.5 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
14.4%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.3%
Dividend
0.3%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.58
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
22.6%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
47M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageESLT Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Medium
Regulatory scrutiny
Banks' growing private credit tie-ups could face regulatory risks, as flagged by watchdogs, potentially impacting financial sector dynamics.
Lower
Market competition
Expansion of major players like JPMorgan into private credit markets may increase competition for defense sector financing.
Medium
Geopolitical dependencies
Elbit Systems' reliance on global defense spending growth is subject to geopolitical shifts and budget reallocations.
High Risk
Valuation sensitivity
Sensitivity to factors like revenue growth and margins could lead to significant DCF valuation shifts in adverse scenarios.
Lower
Backlog concentration
Despite a record backlog, heavy international exposure (71%) may introduce risks from regional instability or contract delays.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ESLT Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Strong financial resources
Elbit Systems provides essential financial reports, presentations, and earnings call information, indicating transparency and investor confidence.
Detailed stock analysis
Comprehensive stock overviews, including real-time price, charts, and key statistics, support informed investment decisions.
Free expert reports
Access to free detailed analysis reports on Elbit Systems helps investors evaluate bullish potential.
SEC filing accessibility
MarketBeat offers complete SEC filing history, including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports, aiding thorough due diligence.
Defense technology focus
Elbit Systems' specialization in defense technology positions it well in a high-demand sector.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ESLT Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$788.23
52W Range Position
62%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$415.90
+89.5% from the low
52-Week High
$1016.00
-22.4% from the high
1 Month
+3.63%
3 Month
-17.34%
YTD
+33.2%
1 Year
+79.9%
3Y CAGR
+55.5%
5Y CAGR
+43.2%
10Y CAGR
+23.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ESLT vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
53.9x
vs 16.5x median
+227% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+10.2%
vs +4.4% median
+130% above peer median
Net Margin
7.1%
vs 7.6% median
-6% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ESL ESLT Elbit Systems Ltd. | $36.9B | 53.9x | +10.2% | 7.1% | Hold | +20.5% |
LHX LHX L3Harris Technologies, Inc. | $55.1B | 25.4x | +5.2% | 7.7% | Buy | +17.8% |
HII HII Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. | $11.2B | 16.5x | +4.4% | 4.7% | Hold | +47.1% |
LDO LDOS Leidos Holdings, Inc. | $13.5B | 9.0x | +3.4% | 7.8% | Buy | +66.6% |
BAH BAH Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corporation | $7.9B | 10.9x | +2.1% | 7.6% | Buy | +34.9% |
CAC CACI CACI International Inc | $10.3B | 16.5x | +7.5% | 5.9% | Buy | +48.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ESLT Dividend and Capital Return
ESLT returns 0.3% total yield, led by a 0.33% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
0.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
0.33%
Payout Ratio
22.6%
How ESLT Splits Its Return
Div 0.33%
Dividend 0.33%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.58
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
-4.8%
5Y Div CAGR
0.6%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
6 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
47M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.00 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $3.45 | +38.1% | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| 2024 | $2.50 | -26.8% | 0.0% | 0.8% |
| 2023 | $3.42 | -14.6% | 0.0% | 0.9% |
| 2022 | $4.00 | +11.0% | 0.0% | 1.2% |
FAQ
7 questionsESLT Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Elbit Systems Ltd. (ESLT) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Elbit Systems Ltd. (ESLT) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 6 analysts covering the stock, 1 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 5 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $950, implying +20.5% from the current price of $788. The bear case scenario is $330 and the bull case is $690.
02What is the ESLT stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ESLT is $950 based on 6 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $950 (+20.5% from today), and the low-end target is $950 (+20.5%). The base case model target is $524.
03Is Elbit Systems Ltd. (ESLT) stock overvalued in 2026?
ESLT trades at 53.9x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Elbit Systems Ltd. (ESLT) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ESLT in 2026 are: (1) Valuation sensitivity — Sensitivity to factors like revenue growth and margins could lead to significant DCF valuation shifts in adverse scenarios. (2) Regulatory scrutiny — Banks' growing private credit tie-ups could face regulatory risks, as flagged by watchdogs, potentially impacting financial sector dynamics. (3) Geopolitical dependencies — Elbit Systems' reliance on global defense spending growth is subject to geopolitical shifts and budget reallocations. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Elbit Systems Ltd.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ESLT will report consensus revenue of $9.1B (+10.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $11.74 (-3.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $10.0B in revenue.
06When does Elbit Systems Ltd. (ESLT) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for ESLT is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Elbit Systems Ltd. generate?
Elbit Systems Ltd. (ESLT) generated $613M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 7.4%. ESLT returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.3% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).