Upside case
Bull case
$165+86.3%
EXE would need investors to value it at roughly 19x earnings — about 9x more generous than today's 10x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
20
analysts
15 bullish · 0 bearish · 20 covering EXE
Strong Buy
1
Buy
14
Hold
5
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$134
+51.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$79 – $165
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
20
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
9.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $21.3B
EXE price targets
Three scenarios for where EXE stock could go
Current
~$89
Confidence
45 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $89
Bear
$79
Base
$125
Bull
$165
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$125+41.4%
At 14x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$79-10.9%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 1x multiple contraction could push EXE down roughly 11% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Expand Energy Corporation
EXE · NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionDecember year-end
Expand Energy Corporation is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company focused on unconventional natural gas resources in the United States. It generates revenue primarily from natural gas sales — with additional contributions from oil and natural gas liquids — through its extensive portfolio of approximately 5,000 wells across key shale plays like the Marcellus and Haynesville formations. The company's competitive advantage lies in its large-scale, low-cost position in premier natural gas basins and its operational expertise in unconventional resource development.
Market Cap
$21.3B
Revenue TTM
$14.1B
Net Income TTM
$3.2B
Net Margin
22.9%
EXE Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-1180.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.10/$1.14
Revenue
$3.7B/$2.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.97/$0.90
Revenue
$3.0B/$2.7B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.00/$1.87
Revenue
$3.3B/$2.9B
Q2 2026
EPS
$3.83/$3.69
Revenue
$4.4B/$3.5B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.10/$1.14 | -3.5% | $3.7B/$2.5B | +44.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.97/$0.90 | +8.0% | $3.0B/$2.7B | +9.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.00/$1.87 | +7.0% | $3.3B/$2.9B | +11.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.83/$3.69 | +3.8% | $4.4B/$3.5B | +24.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$15.3B
+8.6% YoY
FY2
$16.1B
+5.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$11.16
-16.7% YoY
FY2
$10.68
-4.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.9B
FCF Margin: 20.3%
Next Earnings
August 4, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.17
Expected Revenue
$3.1B
EXE beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
EXE Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $20.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Oil and Gas
42.1%
+185.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Haynesville
41.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Oil and Gas is the largest disclosed segment at 42.1% of FY 2025 revenue, up 185.5% YoY.
Haynesville is the largest reported region at 41.0%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
EXE Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $133 — implies +52.6% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
52.6%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
EXE
11.7x
vs
S&P 500
24.7x
53% discount
vs Energy Trailing P/E
EXE
11.7x
vs
Energy
15.7x
25% discount
vs EXE 5Y Avg P/E
Today
11.7x
vs
5Y Average
5.8x
+102% premium
Forward PE
9.9x
S&P 500
19.1x
-48%
Energy
12.2x
-19%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
11.7x
S&P 500
24.7x
-53%
Energy
15.7x
-25%
5Y Avg
5.8x
+102%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.69x
—
Energy
0.53x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
5.1x
S&P 500
15.1x
-66%
Energy
7.9x
-35%
5Y Avg
7.5x
-31%
Price/FCF
11.6x
S&P 500
21.2x
-45%
Energy
13.7x
-15%
5Y Avg
11.9x
-3%
Price/Sales
1.8x
S&P 500
3.2x
-42%
Energy
1.4x
+32%
5Y Avg
1.9x
-5%
Dividend Yield
3.59%
S&P 500
1.92%
+87%
Energy
3.42%
+5%
5Y Avg
4.03%
-11%
| Metric | EXE | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg EXE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 9.9x | 19.1x-48% | 12.2x-19% | — |
| Trailing PE | 11.7x | 24.7x-53% | 15.7x-25% | 5.8x+102% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.69x | 0.53x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.1x | 15.1x-66% | 7.9x-35% | 7.5x-31% |
| Price/FCF | 11.6x | 21.2x-45% | 13.7x-15% | 11.9x |
| Price/Sales | 1.8x | 3.2x-42% | 1.4x+32% | 1.9x |
| Dividend Yield | 3.59% | 1.92% | 3.42% | 4.03% |
EXE trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolEXE Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
EXE generates $2.9B in free cash flow at a 20.3% margin — returns 4.1% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$14.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+163.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
53.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
29.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
22.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$13.40
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$2.9B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
20.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
6.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
11.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$696M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$4.4B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.5× FCF
~1.5 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
17.4%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (6.6%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.1%
Dividend
3.6%
Buyback
0.5%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$100M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3.18
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
42.1%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
240M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageEXE Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Price Target Risk
Bear case price target of $-846464 indicates significant downside risk based on revenue trajectory and margin path.
Medium
Gas Price Sensitivity
Natural gas price recovery remains pivotal for sentiment shift, with strip prices influenced by weather and storage levels.
Medium
Dividend Sustainability
3.3% dividend yield provides downside cushion but may be at risk if gas prices remain weak.
Lower
Production Scale
Dominant acreage position across key basins provides some stability despite market volatility.
High Risk
Merger Integration
Post-merger risks from Chesapeake Energy and Southwestern Energy integration could impact operational efficiency.
Medium
LNG Export Dependency
Growth in LNG exports is a key factor, exposing EXE to global demand fluctuations.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why EXE Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Strong financial turnaround
Expand Energy Corporation reported a sharp turnaround with revenue of US$4,397 million and net income of US$1,159 million in Q1 2026, reversing prior year losses.
Attractive valuation metrics
EXE's trailing P/E ratio of 6.61x and forward P/E of 9.27x suggest the stock is undervalued compared to its historical performance and growth potential.
Bullish analyst coverage
A bullish thesis on Expand Energy Corporation was highlighted by @MoneyShow on X.com, indicating positive sentiment among investors and analysts.
Significant price upside
The current stock price of $88.78 is 29.9% below the 52-week high of $126.62, presenting potential upside for investors.
Market capitalization strength
With a market capitalization of $21.2B, Expand Energy Corporation demonstrates substantial market presence and stability.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
EXE Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$88.60
52W Range Position
6%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$86.37
+2.6% from the low
52-Week High
$126.62
-30.0% from the high
1 Month
-6.29%
3 Month
-19.23%
YTD
-19.3%
1 Year
-27.7%
3Y CAGR
+2.8%
5Y CAGR
+10.8%
10Y CAGR
+7.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
EXE vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
9.9x
vs 10.7x median
-7% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+8.6%
vs +8.9% median
-2% below peer median
Net Margin
22.9%
vs 28.4% median
-19% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EXE EXE Expand Energy Corporation | $21.3B | 9.9x | +8.6% | 22.9% | Buy | +51.5% |
AR AR Antero Resources Corporation | $10.8B | 7.7x | +13.2% | 17.5% | Buy | +47.3% |
RRC RRC Range Resources Corporation | $8.6B | 8.4x | +10.7% | 28.4% | Hold | +30.5% |
CNX CNX CNX Resources Corporation | $4.8B | 10.8x | +8.9% | 50.9% | Hold | +6.8% |
CTR CTRA Coterra Energy Inc. | $24.7B | 11.3x | +4.2% | 25.7% | Buy | +5.0% |
EQT EQT EQT Corporation | $32.1B | 10.7x | +7.7% | 33.4% | Buy | -20.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
EXE Dividend and Capital Return
EXE returns 4.1% total yield, led by a 3.59% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
4.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.5%
Dividend Yield
3.59%
Payout Ratio
42.1%
How EXE Splits Its Return
Div 3.59%
Dividend 3.59%Buybacks 0.5%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3.18
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
-30.7%
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$100M
Estimated Shares Retired
1M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
240M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.15 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $3.19 | +30.7% | 0.4% | 3.3% |
| 2024 | $2.44 | -32.6% | 0.0% | 2.5% |
| 2023 | $3.62 | -62.2% | 3.2% | 7.7% |
| 2022 | $9.59 | +752.2% | 7.8% | 16.6% |
FAQ
7 questionsEXE Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 20 analysts covering the stock, 15 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 5 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $134, implying +51.5% from the current price of $89. The bear case scenario is $79 and the bull case is $165.
02What is the EXE stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for EXE is $134 based on 20 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $146 (+64.8% from today), and the low-end target is $110 (+24.2%). The base case model target is $125.
03Is Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) stock overvalued in 2026?
EXE trades at 9.9x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for EXE in 2026 are: (1) Price Target Risk — Bear case price target of $-846464 indicates significant downside risk based on revenue trajectory and margin path. (2) Merger Integration — Post-merger risks from Chesapeake Energy and Southwestern Energy integration could impact operational efficiency. (3) Gas Price Sensitivity — Natural gas price recovery remains pivotal for sentiment shift, with strip prices influenced by weather and storage levels. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Expand Energy Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates EXE will report consensus revenue of $15.3B (+8.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $11.16 (-16.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $16.1B in revenue.
06When does Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) report its next earnings?
Expand Energy Corporation is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-04. Consensus expects EPS of $1.17 and revenue of $3.1B. Over recent quarters, EXE has beaten EPS estimates 67% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Expand Energy Corporation generate?
Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) generated $2.9B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 20.3%. EXE returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.6% yield) and share repurchases ($100M TTM).