Upside case
Bull case
$691+613.2%
EXE would need investors to value it at roughly 77x earnings — about 66x more generous than today's 11x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
20
analysts
16 bullish · 0 bearish · 20 covering EXE
Strong Buy
1
Buy
15
Hold
4
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$137
+41.0% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $691
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
20
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
10.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $23.3B
EXE price targets
Three scenarios for where EXE stock could go
Current
~$97
Confidence
35 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $97
Base
$172
Bull
$691
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$172+77.1%
At 19x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Expand Energy Corporation
EXE · NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionDecember year-end
Expand Energy Corporation is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company focused on unconventional natural gas resources in the United States. It generates revenue primarily from natural gas sales — with additional contributions from oil and natural gas liquids — through its extensive portfolio of approximately 5,000 wells across key shale plays like the Marcellus and Haynesville formations. The company's competitive advantage lies in its large-scale, low-cost position in premier natural gas basins and its operational expertise in unconventional resource development.
Market Cap
$23.3B
Revenue TTM
$14.1B
Net Income TTM
$3.2B
Net Margin
22.9%
EXE Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-1180.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.10/$1.14
Revenue
$3.7B/$2.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.97/$0.90
Revenue
$3.0B/$2.7B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.00/$1.87
Revenue
$3.3B/$2.9B
Q2 2026
EPS
$3.83/$3.61
Revenue
$4.4B/$3.5B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.10/$1.14 | -3.5% | $3.7B/$2.5B | +44.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.97/$0.90 | +8.0% | $3.0B/$2.7B | +9.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.00/$1.87 | +7.0% | $3.3B/$2.9B | +11.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.83/$3.61 | +6.1% | $4.4B/$3.5B | +24.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$17.0B
+20.5% YoY
FY2
$22.1B
+30.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$12.21
-8.9% YoY
FY2
$13.41
+9.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.9B
FCF Margin: 20.3%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
EXE beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
EXE Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $20.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Oil and Gas
42.1%
+185.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Haynesville
41.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Oil and Gas is the largest disclosed segment at 42.1% of FY 2025 revenue, up 185.5% YoY.
Haynesville is the largest reported region at 41.0%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
EXE Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $340 — implies +239.6% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
239.6%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
EXE
12.8x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
49% discount
vs Energy Trailing P/E
EXE
12.8x
vs
Energy
16.9x
24% discount
vs EXE 5Y Avg P/E
Today
12.8x
vs
5Y Average
5.8x
+121% premium
Forward PE
10.8x
S&P 500
19.1x
-43%
Energy
13.2x
-18%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
12.8x
S&P 500
25.2x
-49%
Energy
16.9x
-24%
5Y Avg
5.8x
+121%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Energy
0.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
5.5x
S&P 500
15.3x
-64%
Energy
8.1x
-32%
5Y Avg
7.5x
-26%
Price/FCF
12.7x
S&P 500
21.3x
-41%
Energy
14.1x
-10%
5Y Avg
11.9x
+6%
Price/Sales
2.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
-36%
Energy
1.6x
+28%
5Y Avg
1.9x
+4%
Dividend Yield
3.28%
S&P 500
1.88%
+75%
Energy
2.97%
+11%
5Y Avg
4.03%
-19%
| Metric | EXE | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg EXE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 10.8x | 19.1x-43% | 13.2x-18% | — |
| Trailing PE | 12.8x | 25.2x-49% | 16.9x-24% | 5.8x+121% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 0.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.5x | 15.3x-64% | 8.1x-32% | 7.5x-26% |
| Price/FCF | 12.7x | 21.3x-41% | 14.1x-10% | 11.9x |
| Price/Sales | 2.0x | 3.1x-36% | 1.6x+28% | 1.9x |
| Dividend Yield | 3.28% | 1.88% | 2.97% | 4.03% |
EXE trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolEXE Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
EXE generates $2.9B in free cash flow at a 20.3% margin — returns 3.7% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$14.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+163.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
53.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
29.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
22.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$13.40
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$2.9B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
20.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
6.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
11.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$696M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$4.4B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.5× FCF
~1.5 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
17.4%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (6.6%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.7%
Dividend
3.3%
Buyback
0.4%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$100M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3.18
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
42.1%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
240M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageEXE Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Commodity price volatility
Fluctuations in natural gas, oil, and NGL prices can significantly impact revenues and profitability. These price changes are influenced by general economic conditions, geopolitical tensions, and supply-demand dynamics.
High Risk
Environmental regulations
Increasingly stringent environmental regulations aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions pose significant challenges. This includes regulations on methane emissions, flaring, and water disposal that could affect operational costs and compliance.
High Risk
Access to capital markets
The company's ability to access capital markets on favorable terms is critical for financing operations and growth. Any inability to secure necessary funding could severely limit financial flexibility and operational capacity.
Medium
Supply chain constraints
Regional epidemics or pandemics, along with related economic turmoil, can disrupt supply chains, leading to increased operational costs and delays. Such disruptions can adversely affect the company's ability to deliver products and services.
Medium
Indebtedness and covenants
The level of indebtedness and restrictive covenants can limit financial flexibility. This may hinder the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities or respond to market changes.
Medium
Competition
Intensifying competition in the energy sector from established players and new entrants poses a risk to market share and profitability. The company's ability to differentiate itself will be crucial in maintaining its competitive edge.
Lower
Cybersecurity threats
Breaches of information technology systems can disrupt business operations and lead to financial losses. As the company increasingly relies on digital infrastructure, the risk of cyberattacks grows.
Lower
Extreme weather events
Natural disasters, such as Winter Storm Fern, can cause operational disruptions. The company's preparedness for such events is essential to mitigate potential impacts on production and logistics.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why EXE Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strong Natural Gas Producer
Expand Energy is recognized as a strong natural gas producer with operations in strategic locations, particularly in the Appalachian basin, benefiting from proximity to major population centers. The company is also North America's largest natural gas producer.
Growth and Acquisitions
A recent merger has reportedly increased synergy and improved operational performance. Analysts project significant forward revenue growth, averaging around 50.8%, positioning the company to benefit from increased drilling activity.
Financial Strength and Debt Reduction
Expand Energy has made significant strides in debt reduction, with over $1.2 billion in debt reduction since its merger and a $1.6 billion improvement in net debt from year-end 2025 to quarter-end. This deleveraging, coupled with strong free cash flow generation, allows the company to prioritize debt reduction, dividends, and share buybacks.
Shareholder Returns
The company's cash flow generation is expected to enable it to prioritize debt reduction, dividends, and share buybacks. Expand Energy pays a meaningful dividend yield of 2.39%, which is considered sustainable.
Operational Performance
The company has demonstrated strong operational execution and is scaling efficiently. Recent Q1 2026 earnings showed strong free cash flow generation, allowing for significant debt redemption and interest cost reduction.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
EXE Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$96.93
52W Range Position
17%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$91.02
+6.5% from the low
52-Week High
$126.62
-23.4% from the high
1 Month
-6.39%
3 Month
-12.18%
YTD
-11.7%
1 Year
-10.7%
3Y CAGR
+7.4%
5Y CAGR
+15.3%
10Y CAGR
+8.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
EXE vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
10.8x
vs 11.5x median
-6% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+20.5%
vs +11.9% median
+73% above peer median
Net Margin
22.9%
vs 28.4% median
-19% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EXE EXE Expand Energy Corporation | $23.3B | 10.8x | +20.5% | 22.9% | Buy | +41.0% |
AR AR Antero Resources Corporation | $11.4B | 8.4x | +11.9% | 17.5% | Buy | +32.7% |
RRC RRC Range Resources Corporation | $9.7B | 9.6x | +11.5% | 28.4% | Hold | +13.1% |
CNX CNX CNX Resources Corporation | $5.2B | 12.6x | +19.3% | 50.9% | Hold | -1.0% |
CTR CTRA Coterra Energy Inc. | $24.7B | 11.5x | -15.3% | 25.7% | Buy | +4.5% |
EQT EQT EQT Corporation | $35.8B | 11.7x | +18.4% | 33.4% | Buy | -28.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
EXE Dividend and Capital Return
EXE returns 3.7% total yield, led by a 3.28% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
3.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.4%
Dividend Yield
3.28%
Payout Ratio
42.1%
How EXE Splits Its Return
Div 3.28%
Dividend 3.28%Buybacks 0.4%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3.18
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
-35.1%
5Y Div CAGR
7.2%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$100M
Estimated Shares Retired
1M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
240M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.15 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.62 | +7.2% | 0.4% | 3.3% |
| 2024 | $2.44 | -32.6% | 0.0% | 2.5% |
| 2023 | $3.62 | -62.2% | 3.2% | 7.7% |
| 2022 | $9.59 | +752.2% | 7.8% | 16.6% |
FAQ
7 questionsEXE Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 20 analysts covering the stock, 16 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 4 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $137, implying +41.0% from the current price of $97.
02What is the EXE stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for EXE is $137 based on 20 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $146 (+50.6% from today), and the low-end target is $123 (+26.9%). The base case model target is $172.
03Is Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) stock overvalued in 2026?
EXE trades at 10.8x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for EXE in 2026 are: (1) Commodity price volatility — Fluctuations in natural gas, oil, and NGL prices can significantly impact revenues and profitability. (2) Environmental regulations — Increasingly stringent environmental regulations aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions pose significant challenges. (3) Access to capital markets — The company's ability to access capital markets on favorable terms is critical for financing operations and growth. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Expand Energy Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates EXE will report consensus revenue of $17.0B (+20.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $12.21 (-8.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $22.1B in revenue.
06When does Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for EXE is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Expand Energy Corporation generate?
Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) generated $2.9B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 20.3%. EXE returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.3% yield) and share repurchases ($100M TTM).