Upside case
Bull case
$353+145.6%
EXR would need investors to value it at roughly 76x earnings — about 45x more generous than today's 31x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Extra Space Storage Inc. (EXR) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
28
analysts
12 bullish · 1 bearish · 28 covering EXR
Strong Buy
0
Buy
12
Hold
15
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$149
+3.7% vs today
Scenario Range
$145 – $353
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
28
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
30.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $30.4B
EXR price targets
Three scenarios for where EXR stock could go
Current
~$144
Confidence
65 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $144
Bear
$145
Base
$172
Bull
$353
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$172+19.6%
At 37x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$145+1.1%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push EXR down roughly 1% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Extra Space Storage Inc.
EXR · NYSEReal EstateREIT - IndustrialDecember year-end
Extra Space Storage is a real estate investment trust that owns and operates self-storage facilities across the United States. It generates revenue primarily through rental income from storage units — including boat, RV, and business storage — with property management fees contributing additional income. The company benefits from economies of scale as the second-largest self-storage operator in the U.S., leveraging its national brand recognition and sophisticated revenue management systems.
Market Cap
$30.4B
Revenue TTM
$3.4B
Net Income TTM
$974M
Net Margin
28.8%
EXR Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+9.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.05/$2.06
Revenue
$842M/$732M
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.08/$2.06
Revenue
$778M/$733M
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.36/$1.17
Revenue
$857M/$855M
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.14/$1.12
Revenue
$856M/$851M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.05/$2.06 | -0.5% | $842M/$732M | +14.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.08/$2.06 | +1.0% | $778M/$733M | +6.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.36/$1.17 | +16.2% | $857M/$855M | +0.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.14/$1.12 | +1.8% | $856M/$851M | +0.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$3.7B
+8.6% YoY
FY2
$4.0B
+9.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$5.00
+13.4% YoY
FY2
$5.49
+9.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.8B
FCF Margin: 54.6%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
EXR beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
EXR Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $3.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Self Storage Operations
89.1%
+3.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Self Storage Operations is the largest disclosed segment at 89.1% of FY 2025 revenue, up 3.3% YoY.
EXR Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Undervalued
Fair value est. $155 — implies +9.0% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
9.0%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
EXR
31.3x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+24% premium
vs Real Estate Trailing P/E
EXR
31.3x
vs
Real Estate
24.5x
+28% premium
vs EXR 5Y Avg P/E
Today
31.3x
vs
5Y Average
31.8x
In line with benchmark
Forward PE
30.9x
S&P 500
19.1x
+62%
Real Estate
26.5x
+17%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
31.3x
S&P 500
25.2x
+24%
Real Estate
24.5x
+28%
5Y Avg
31.8x
-1%
PEG Ratio
7.21x
S&P 500
1.74x
+314%
Real Estate
1.22x
+493%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
20.5x
S&P 500
15.2x
+35%
Real Estate
16.7x
+23%
5Y Avg
23.1x
-11%
Price/FCF
16.6x
S&P 500
21.3x
-22%
Real Estate
15.6x
+7%
5Y Avg
20.4x
-19%
Price/Sales
9.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
+187%
Real Estate
3.0x
+198%
5Y Avg
11.7x
-23%
Dividend Yield
4.51%
S&P 500
1.87%
+141%
Real Estate
4.64%
-3%
5Y Avg
3.79%
+19%
| Metric | EXR | S&P 500 | Real Estate | 5Y Avg EXR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 30.9x | 19.1x+62% | 26.5x+17% | — |
| Trailing PE | 31.3x | 25.2x+24% | 24.5x+28% | 31.8x |
| PEG Ratio | 7.21x | 1.74x+314% | 1.22x+493% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.5x | 15.2x+35% | 16.7x+23% | 23.1x-11% |
| Price/FCF | 16.6x | 21.3x-22% | 15.6x | 20.4x-19% |
| Price/Sales | 9.0x | 3.1x+187% | 3.0x+198% | 11.7x-23% |
| Dividend Yield | 4.51% | 1.87% | 4.64% | 3.79% |
EXR trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolEXR Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
EXR pays 5.0% total shareholder yield with 44.1% operating margin. Leverage is structural for REITs — debt capacity matters more than absolute ratio.
Property Operations
Revenue, margins, and distribution coverage
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$3.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+1.2%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
28.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
44.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
28.8%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$4.41
Operating Margin
NOI-equivalent margin — key for REIT property economics
44.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
3.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
3.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$139M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$14.8B
Leverage (Net Debt / FCF)
REITs carry structural leverage — higher ratios are expected
8.0× FCF
Asset-heavy model means debt/FCF above 10× is common and not a distress signal.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
6.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.0%
Dividend
4.5%
Buyback
0.5%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$150M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$6.49
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
141.1%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
211M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. REITs carry structural leverage — debt/FCF ratios above 10× are normal and do not indicate distress.
Open full ratios pageEXR Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Economic Conditions Sensitivity
EXR’s self‑storage demand is highly sensitive to macroeconomic shifts such as rising unemployment, interest‑rate hikes, and housing‑market dynamics. The month‑to‑month lease structure offers flexibility but exposes the company to rapid changes in occupancy and revenue during economic downturns.
High Risk
Rising Property Expenses
Property‑tax increases in several states have driven up same‑store operating costs, eroding margins. Rising expenses, especially in high‑tax jurisdictions, have already pressured profitability and could continue to do so if tax rates remain elevated.
High Risk
Debt‑Service Risk
EXR’s debt‑to‑equity ratio is considered high, and the company faces upcoming debt maturities that will require refinancing. If market rates rise, refinancing costs could increase, potentially straining cash flow and limiting investment flexibility.
Medium
Competitive Pricing Pressure
The self‑storage industry is crowded, with many players vying for market share. Intense competition can lead to pricing pressure, reducing rental rates and occupancy levels, and forcing EXR to continuously innovate to maintain its position.
Medium
Environmental & Cybersecurity Threats
Natural disasters such as earthquakes and hurricanes pose risks to EXR’s properties and can disrupt operations. Additionally, the company’s reliance on IT systems makes it vulnerable to cyberattacks and data breaches, which could have financial consequences and damage its reputation.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why EXR Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Market Leadership & Acquisition Growth
Extra Space Storage is the largest U.S. self‑storage operator by store count, managing over 4,000 properties. The July 2023 Life Storage acquisition added 757 stores, expanding its footprint and revenue base.
Capital‑Efficient Third‑Party Management
The company’s third‑party management platform taps growing demand from businesses, boosting fee‑based revenue with minimal capital outlay. This model delivers high margin growth while keeping capital expenditures low.
Inflation‑Adjusted Earnings Power
Extra Space Storage’s ancillary income streams—tenant insurance and management fees—have risen, strengthening its inflation‑adjusted earnings. These streams provide a cushion against rising operating costs.
Strong Q4 2025 Results & Capital Returns
In Q4 2025, the company generated $857 million in revenue and $287 million in net income. Management returned capital through a $1.62 per share dividend and a $149.53 million share repurchase program.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
EXR Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$143.85
52W Range Position
62%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$125.71
+14.4% from the low
52-Week High
$155.19
-7.3% from the high
1 Month
+7.30%
3 Month
+2.74%
YTD
+9.8%
1 Year
-2.3%
3Y CAGR
-2.9%
5Y CAGR
-0.2%
10Y CAGR
+4.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
EXR vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
30.9x
vs 37.0x median
-16% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+8.6%
vs +4.6% median
+88% above peer median
Net Margin
28.8%
vs 28.9% median
-0% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EXR EXR Extra Space Storage Inc. | $30.4B | 30.9x | +8.6% | 28.8% | Hold | +3.7% |
PSA PSA Public Storage | $54.2B | 32.4x | +4.7% | 39.2% | Hold | -1.3% |
CUB CUBE CubeSmart | $9.2B | 28.4x | +4.6% | 28.9% | Hold | +3.0% |
NSA NSA National Storage Affiliates Trust | $3.3B | 82.4x | -0.1% | 11.9% | Hold | -23.1% |
SST SST System1, Inc. | $36M | — | -14.8% | -24.6% | Buy | +225.1% |
PLD PLD Prologis, Inc. | $132.7B | 41.6x | +9.1% | 36.7% | Buy | +1.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
EXR Dividend and Capital Return
EXR returns 5.0% total yield, led by a 4.51% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
5.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.5%
Dividend Yield
4.51%
Payout Ratio
1.4%
How EXR Splits Its Return
Div 4.51%
Dividend 4.51%Buybacks 0.5%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$6.49
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
2.6%
5Y Div CAGR
12.5%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$150M
Estimated Shares Retired
1M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
211M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.62 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $6.48 | 0.0% | 0.5% | 5.5% |
| 2024 | $6.48 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.3% |
| 2023 | $6.48 | +8.0% | 0.0% | 3.9% |
| 2022 | $6.00 | +33.3% | 0.3% | 4.2% |
FAQ
7 questionsEXR Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Extra Space Storage Inc. (EXR) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Extra Space Storage Inc. (EXR) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 28 analysts covering the stock, 12 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 15 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $149, implying +3.7% from the current price of $144. The bear case scenario is $145 and the bull case is $353.
02What is the EXR stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for EXR is $149 based on 28 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $164 (+14.0% from today), and the low-end target is $140 (-2.7%). The base case model target is $172.
03Is Extra Space Storage Inc. (EXR) stock overvalued in 2026?
EXR trades at 30.9x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Extra Space Storage Inc. (EXR) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for EXR in 2026 are: (1) Economic Conditions Sensitivity — EXR’s self‑storage demand is highly sensitive to macroeconomic shifts such as rising unemployment, interest‑rate hikes, and housing‑market dynamics. (2) Rising Property Expenses — Property‑tax increases in several states have driven up same‑store operating costs, eroding margins. (3) Debt‑Service Risk — EXR’s debt‑to‑equity ratio is considered high, and the company faces upcoming debt maturities that will require refinancing. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Extra Space Storage Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates EXR will report consensus revenue of $3.7B (+8.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $5.00 (+13.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $4.0B in revenue.
06When does Extra Space Storage Inc. (EXR) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for EXR is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Extra Space Storage Inc. generate?
Extra Space Storage Inc. (EXR) generated $1.8B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 54.6%. EXR returns capital to shareholders through dividends (4.5% yield) and share repurchases ($150M TTM).