Upside case
Bull case
$382+172.1%
PLD would need investors to value it at roughly 111x earnings — about 70x more generous than today's 41x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Prologis, Inc. (PLD) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
42
analysts
25 bullish · 1 bearish · 42 covering PLD
Strong Buy
0
Buy
25
Hold
16
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$144
+3.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$75 – $382
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
42
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
40.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $130.3B
PLD price targets
Three scenarios for where PLD stock could go
Current
~$140
Confidence
56 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $140
Bear
$75
Base
$155
Bull
$382
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$155+10.8%
This is close to how the market is already pricing PLD — at roughly 45x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$75-46.2%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 19x multiple contraction could push PLD down roughly 46% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Prologis, Inc.
PLD · NYSEReal EstateREIT - IndustrialDecember year-end
Prologis is a global owner and operator of logistics real estate — primarily warehouses and distribution centers — serving e-commerce and supply chain customers. It generates revenue primarily through rental income from long-term leases to logistics companies, retailers, and manufacturers, with property management and development services providing additional income. The company's competitive advantage lies in its massive scale — owning nearly 1 billion square feet of prime logistics space in key global markets — and its deep relationships with major logistics and e-commerce players.
Market Cap
$130.3B
Revenue TTM
$8.7B
Net Income TTM
$3.2B
Net Margin
36.7%
PLD Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+20.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.46/$1.41
Revenue
$2.2B/$2.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.49/$1.44
Revenue
$2.2B/$2.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.44/$0.77
Revenue
$2.1B/$2.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.05/$0.81
Revenue
$2.1B/$2.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.46/$1.41 | +3.5% | $2.2B/$2.0B | +7.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.49/$1.44 | +3.5% | $2.2B/$2.1B | +6.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.44/$0.77 | +87.0% | $2.1B/$2.1B | +0.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.05/$0.81 | +30.3% | $2.1B/$2.1B | +0.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$9.5B
+9.1% YoY
FY2
$10.5B
+10.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.87
+15.3% YoY
FY2
$4.44
+14.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$5.2B
FCF Margin: 59.3%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
PLD beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
PLD Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $8.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Real Estate Operations Segment
91.8%
+10.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
U.S.
91.6%
+1.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Real Estate Operations Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 91.8% of FY 2024 revenue, up 10.4% YoY.
U.S. is the largest reported region at 91.6%, up 1.7% YoY.
PLD Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $121 — implies -14.6% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
14.6%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
PLD
35.0x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+39% premium
vs Real Estate Trailing P/E
PLD
35.0x
vs
Real Estate
24.1x
+45% premium
vs PLD 5Y Avg P/E
Today
35.0x
vs
5Y Average
37.8x
8% discount
Forward PE
40.8x
S&P 500
19.1x
+114%
Real Estate
26.4x
+55%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
35.0x
S&P 500
25.1x
+39%
Real Estate
24.1x
+45%
5Y Avg
37.8x
-8%
PEG Ratio
3.24x
S&P 500
1.72x
+89%
Real Estate
1.25x
+160%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
22.9x
S&P 500
15.2x
+51%
Real Estate
16.7x
+38%
5Y Avg
24.6x
-7%
Price/FCF
26.5x
S&P 500
21.1x
+26%
Real Estate
15.4x
+72%
5Y Avg
33.8x
-22%
Price/Sales
15.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
+408%
Real Estate
3.0x
+433%
5Y Avg
17.8x
-11%
Dividend Yield
2.67%
S&P 500
1.87%
+43%
Real Estate
4.66%
-43%
5Y Avg
2.48%
+8%
| Metric | PLD | S&P 500 | Real Estate | 5Y Avg PLD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 40.8x | 19.1x+114% | 26.4x+55% | — |
| Trailing PE | 35.0x | 25.1x+39% | 24.1x+45% | 37.8x |
| PEG Ratio | 3.24x | 1.72x+89% | 1.25x+160% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.9x | 15.2x+51% | 16.7x+38% | 24.6x |
| Price/FCF | 26.5x | 21.1x+26% | 15.4x+72% | 33.8x-22% |
| Price/Sales | 15.9x | 3.1x+408% | 3.0x+433% | 17.8x-11% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.67% | 1.87% | 4.66% | 2.48% |
PLD trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolPLD Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
PLD pays 2.7% total shareholder yield with 47.0% operating margin. Leverage is structural for REITs — debt capacity matters more than absolute ratio.
Property Operations
Revenue, margins, and distribution coverage
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$8.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+10.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
67.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
47.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
36.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.35
Operating Margin
NOI-equivalent margin — key for REIT property economics
47.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
3.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
3.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.3B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$30.2B
Leverage (Net Debt / FCF)
REITs carry structural leverage — higher ratios are expected
5.8× FCF
Asset-heavy model means debt/FCF above 10× is common and not a distress signal.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
5.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.7%
Dividend
2.7%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$31M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3.74
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
95.7%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
954M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. REITs carry structural leverage — debt/FCF ratios above 10× are normal and do not indicate distress.
Open full ratios pagePLD Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Economic & Market Volatility
Prologis faces potential recessions, inflation, and fluctuating interest rates that can dampen consumer spending and logistics demand. Weak GDP growth and shifting consumer habits further threaten industrial demand and lease spreads.
High Risk
Interest Rate Sensitivity
Rising rates raise financing costs and may hinder Prologis’s ability to refinance debt efficiently, impacting cash flow and return on capital.
High Risk
REIT Status Risk
If Prologis loses its REIT classification, it would forfeit tax advantages, reducing net earnings and limiting funds available for operations and distributions.
Medium
Oversupply & Demand Reduction
A material oversupply of logistics space or a sharp drop in demand could compress occupancy rates and erode rental income, negatively affecting profitability.
Medium
Valuation Concerns
Prologis trades at price‑to‑sales and price‑to‑earnings multiples above industry medians, suggesting the market may be overestimating growth prospects.
Lower
Liquidity & Debt
With a current ratio of 0.58, Prologis may face short‑term liquidity challenges, and while its debt‑to‑equity ratio is manageable, it still relies heavily on debt financing.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why PLD Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Favorable Real Estate Cycle
Demand is exceeding supply in key U.S. markets, which is expected to lower vacancy rates and boost Prologis’s pricing power. The recovery in the logistics real estate market signals a favorable environment for the company’s portfolio.
Data Center Expansion Leveraging AI Supercycle
Prologis is strategically expanding into data center development, leveraging its existing land and power infrastructure. This growth is driven by the AI infrastructure investment supercycle, positioning the company for significant upside.
Embedded Rental Growth from Below-Market Leases
Prologis holds a substantial portfolio mark‑to‑market, meaning many leases are below current market rates. As leases renew, this provides a built‑in opportunity for rental revenue growth.
Strong Operational Performance & Margins
Prologis has shown resilient rental revenue growth, with a net margin nearly 38% and a year‑over‑year revenue increase of 7.8%. The company also maintains a solid dividend yield.
Robust Financial Position & Investor Confidence
Prologis has significant liquidity and a manageable cost of debt, enabling investment through the cycle. Institutional investors hold a substantial portion of the stock, indicating confidence in future performance.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
PLD Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$140.27
52W Range Position
88%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$103.02
+36.2% from the low
52-Week High
$145.44
-3.6% from the high
1 Month
+5.98%
3 Month
+3.03%
YTD
+8.7%
1 Year
+33.2%
3Y CAGR
+3.3%
5Y CAGR
+4.4%
10Y CAGR
+11.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
PLD vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
40.8x
vs 35.5x median
+15% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+9.1%
vs +9.2% median
-1% below peer median
Net Margin
36.7%
vs 28.3% median
+30% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PLD PLD Prologis, Inc. | $130.3B | 40.8x | +9.1% | 36.7% | Buy | +3.0% |
EGP EGP EastGroup Properties, Inc. | $10.8B | 35.5x | +12.4% | 39.7% | Hold | +2.2% |
STA STAG STAG Industrial, Inc. | $7.3B | 37.5x | +9.2% | 28.3% | Buy | +19.6% |
FR FR First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. | $8.2B | 29.5x | +8.3% | 46.0% | Buy | +5.3% |
REX REXR Rexford Industrial Realty, Inc. | $8.4B | 30.4x | +11.1% | 21.3% | Hold | +19.5% |
LXP LXP LXP Industrial Trust | $3.1B | 742.6x | -0.6% | 27.0% | Buy | -1.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
PLD Dividend and Capital Return
PLD returns 2.7% total yield, led by a 2.67% dividend, raised 12 consecutive years.
Dividend At RiskFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
2.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
2.67%
Payout Ratio
95.7%
How PLD Splits Its Return
Div 2.67%
Dividend 2.67%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3.74
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
12Y
3Y Div CAGR
8.5%
5Y Div CAGR
11.7%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$31M
Estimated Shares Retired
217.6K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
954M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.07 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $4.04 | +5.2% | — | — |
| 2024 | $3.84 | +10.3% | 0.0% | 3.6% |
| 2023 | $3.48 | +10.1% | 0.0% | 2.6% |
| 2022 | $3.16 | +25.4% | 0.0% | 2.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsPLD Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Prologis, Inc. (PLD) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Prologis, Inc. (PLD) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 42 analysts covering the stock, 25 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 16 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $144, implying +3.0% from the current price of $140. The bear case scenario is $75 and the bull case is $382.
02What is the PLD stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for PLD is $144 based on 42 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $161 (+14.8% from today), and the low-end target is $123 (-12.3%). The base case model target is $155.
03Is Prologis, Inc. (PLD) stock overvalued in 2026?
PLD trades at 40.8x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Prologis, Inc. (PLD) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for PLD in 2026 are: (1) Economic & Market Volatility — Prologis faces potential recessions, inflation, and fluctuating interest rates that can dampen consumer spending and logistics demand. (2) Interest Rate Sensitivity — Rising rates raise financing costs and may hinder Prologis’s ability to refinance debt efficiently, impacting cash flow and return on capital. (3) REIT Status Risk — If Prologis loses its REIT classification, it would forfeit tax advantages, reducing net earnings and limiting funds available for operations and distributions. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Prologis, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates PLD will report consensus revenue of $9.5B (+9.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.87 (+15.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $10.5B in revenue.
06When does Prologis, Inc. (PLD) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for PLD is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Prologis, Inc. generate?
Prologis, Inc. (PLD) generated $5.2B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 59.3%. PLD returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.7% yield) and share repurchases ($31M TTM).