Upside case
Bull case
$393+65.0%
FERG would need investors to value it at roughly 35x earnings — about 14x more generous than today's 21x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Ferguson plc (FERG) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
14
analysts
11 bullish · 0 bearish · 14 covering FERG
Strong Buy
0
Buy
11
Hold
3
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$295
+23.6% vs today
Scenario Range
$188 – $393
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
14
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
21.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $46.4B
FERG price targets
Three scenarios for where FERG stock could go
Current
~$238
Confidence
53 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $238
Bear
$188
Base
$299
Bull
$393
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$299+25.2%
At 26x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$188-21.1%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 4x multiple contraction could push FERG down roughly 21% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Ferguson plc
FERG · NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionJuly year-end
Ferguson is a leading North American distributor of plumbing, heating, ventilation, and industrial products to professional contractors. It generates revenue primarily through product sales across residential, commercial, and industrial segments — with plumbing and HVAC supplies forming the core of its business — supplemented by value-added services like project management and fabrication. The company's competitive advantage lies in its extensive branch network, deep inventory, and strong relationships with both suppliers and professional contractors, creating a distribution moat that smaller players cannot easily replicate.
Market Cap
$46.4B
Revenue TTM
$31.6B
Net Income TTM
$2.1B
Net Margin
6.6%
FERG Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+4.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$3.48/$3.01
Revenue
$8.5B/$8.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.84/$2.77
Revenue
$7.5B/$7.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.48/$3.48
Revenue
$8.5B/$8.5B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.28/$2.16
Revenue
$7.5B/$7.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $3.48/$3.01 | +15.6% | $8.5B/$8.4B | +1.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.84/$2.77 | +2.5% | $7.5B/$7.4B | +0.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.48/$3.48 | +0.0% | $8.5B/$8.5B | +0.0% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.28/$2.16 | +5.6% | $7.5B/$7.6B | -1.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$33.0B
+4.4% YoY
FY2
$34.5B
+4.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$11.22
+5.4% YoY
FY2
$12.09
+7.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.0B
FCF Margin: 3.2%
Next Earnings
August 4, 2026
Expected EPS
$3.29
Expected Revenue
$8.6B
FERG beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
FERG Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $29.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
United States Segment
100.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Canada Segment
100.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
United States Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
Canada Segment is the largest reported region at 100.0%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
FERG Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $318 — implies +33.3% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
33.3%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
FERG
25.6x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
In line with benchmark
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
FERG
25.6x
vs
Industrials
25.6x
In line with benchmark
vs FERG 5Y Avg P/E
Today
25.6x
vs
5Y Average
20.4x
+25% premium
Forward PE
21.1x
S&P 500
18.8x
+12%
Industrials
21.2x
-0%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
25.6x
S&P 500
24.4x
+5%
Industrials
25.6x
0%
5Y Avg
20.4x
+25%
PEG Ratio
1.50x
S&P 500
1.66x
-10%
Industrials
1.65x
-9%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
17.4x
S&P 500
15.2x
+14%
Industrials
13.9x
+25%
5Y Avg
14.3x
+21%
Price/FCF
29.0x
S&P 500
20.7x
+40%
Industrials
20.0x
+44%
5Y Avg
26.5x
+9%
Price/Sales
1.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
-51%
Industrials
1.6x
-3%
5Y Avg
1.3x
+17%
Dividend Yield
1.03%
S&P 500
1.91%
-46%
Industrials
1.21%
-15%
5Y Avg
2.04%
-49%
| Metric | FERG | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg FERG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 21.1x | 18.8x+12% | 21.2x | — |
| Trailing PE | 25.6x | 24.4x | 25.6x | 20.4x+25% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.50x | 1.66x | 1.65x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.4x | 15.2x+14% | 13.9x+25% | 14.3x+21% |
| Price/FCF | 29.0x | 20.7x+40% | 20.0x+44% | 26.5x |
| Price/Sales | 1.5x | 3.1x-51% | 1.6x | 1.3x+17% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.03% | 1.91% | 1.21% | 2.04% |
FERG trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolFERG Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
FERG 18.0% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage — returns 3.1% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$31.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+4.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
30.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
9.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
6.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$10.64
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.0B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
3.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
18.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
11.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$674M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$5.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
5.2× FCF
~5.2 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
35.1%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.1%
Dividend
1.0%
Buyback
2.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$948M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.45
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
26.3%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
195M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageFERG Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Valuation de-rating
Ferguson plc appears overvalued with a DCF intrinsic value of $132.09 compared to the market price of $246.53, representing a 50% premium.
Medium
Revenue and earnings uncertainty
Projections suggest significant share price fluctuations by the end of 2026, indicating uncertainty in revenue and earnings estimates.
Lower
Market sentiment risk
Despite a Buy rating and consensus target, the bear scenario implies potential downside risks not fully priced in.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why FERG Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Strong revenue growth potential
Analysts' cautious revenue growth assumptions of 4.3% annually and $2.4 billion earnings by 2028 may be challenged by stronger actual performance.
Robust financial performance
Ferguson reported strong quarterly sales of $7,495 million and net income of $389 million, with five-month sales reaching $12,833 million and net income of $786 million.
Conservative valuation metrics
FERG's trailing P/E of 25.00 and forward P/E of 21.41 suggest reasonable valuation relative to earnings potential.
Capital return to shareholders
The company continues to return cash to shareholders alongside strong financial results.
Bullish analyst coverage
Multiple bullish theses on Ferguson Enterprises Inc. have been published by analysts at Beeli Capital and Quality Value Investing.
Low-to-mid single-digit growth guidance
Management's guidance of low-to-mid single-digit net sales growth for 2026 provides visibility into continued expansion.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
FERG Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$238.35
52W Range Position
48%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$207.64
+14.8% from the low
52-Week High
$271.64
-12.3% from the high
1 Month
+8.37%
3 Month
+7.43%
YTD
+5.9%
1 Year
+11.2%
3Y CAGR
+16.6%
5Y CAGR
+12.2%
10Y CAGR
+15.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
FERG vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
21.1x
vs 29.9x median
-30% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+4.4%
vs +3.7% median
+20% above peer median
Net Margin
6.6%
vs 7.6% median
-14% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FER FERG Ferguson plc | $46.4B | 21.1x | +4.4% | 6.6% | Buy | +23.6% |
GWW GWW W.W. Grainger, Inc. | $64.5B | 29.9x | +6.0% | 9.7% | Hold | -6.6% |
MSM MSM MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. | $6.6B | 27.2x | +3.5% | 5.4% | Hold | -6.3% |
FAS FAST Fastenal Company | $52.7B | 36.9x | +9.1% | 15.3% | Hold | +0.5% |
POO POOL Pool Corporation | $7.3B | 18.0x | +3.4% | 7.6% | Buy | +38.2% |
WSO WSO Watsco, Inc. | $16.3B | 31.6x | +3.7% | 6.8% | Hold | +1.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FERG Dividend and Capital Return
FERG returns capital mainly through $948M/year in buybacks (2.0% buyback yield), with a modest 1.03% dividend — combining for 3.1% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
3.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
2.0%
Dividend Yield
1.03%
Payout Ratio
26.3%
How FERG Splits Its Return
Div 1.03%
Buyback 2.0%
Dividend 1.03%Buybacks 2.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.45
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
-10.7%
5Y Div CAGR
3.6%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$948M
Estimated Shares Retired
4M
Approx. Share Reduction
2.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
195M
At 2.0%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.67 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.49 | -22.2% | 2.1% | 3.2% |
| 2024 | $3.20 | +5.3% | 1.4% | 3.1% |
| 2023 | $3.04 | -13.1% | 2.7% | 4.8% |
| 2022 | $3.50 | -16.5% | 5.9% | 7.9% |
FAQ
7 questionsFERG Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Ferguson plc (FERG) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Ferguson plc (FERG) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 14 analysts covering the stock, 11 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 3 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $295, implying +23.6% from the current price of $238. The bear case scenario is $188 and the bull case is $393.
02What is the FERG stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for FERG is $295 based on 14 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $300 (+25.9% from today), and the low-end target is $281 (+17.9%). The base case model target is $299.
03Is Ferguson plc (FERG) stock overvalued in 2026?
FERG trades at 21.1x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Ferguson plc (FERG) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for FERG in 2026 are: (1) Valuation de-rating — Ferguson plc appears overvalued with a DCF intrinsic value of $132. (2) Revenue and earnings uncertainty — Projections suggest significant share price fluctuations by the end of 2026, indicating uncertainty in revenue and earnings estimates. (3) Market sentiment risk — Despite a Buy rating and consensus target, the bear scenario implies potential downside risks not fully priced in. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Ferguson plc's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates FERG will report consensus revenue of $33.0B (+4.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $11.22 (+5.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $34.5B in revenue.
06When does Ferguson plc (FERG) report its next earnings?
Ferguson plc is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-04. Consensus expects EPS of $3.29 and revenue of $8.6B. Over recent quarters, FERG has beaten EPS estimates 58% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Ferguson plc generate?
Ferguson plc (FERG) generated $1.0B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 3.2%. FERG returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.0% yield) and share repurchases ($948M TTM).