Upside case
Bull case
$464+84.0%
FERG would need investors to value it at roughly 42x earnings — about 19x more generous than today's 23x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Ferguson plc (FERG) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
14
analysts
11 bullish · 0 bearish · 14 covering FERG
Strong Buy
0
Buy
11
Hold
3
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$271
+7.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$182 – $464
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
14
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
22.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $49.0B
FERG price targets
Three scenarios for where FERG stock could go
Current
~$252
Confidence
60 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $252
Bear
$182
Base
$323
Bull
$464
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$323+28.1%
At 29x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$182-28.0%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 6x multiple contraction could push FERG down roughly 28% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Ferguson plc
FERG · NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionJuly year-end
Ferguson is a leading North American distributor of plumbing, heating, ventilation, and industrial products to professional contractors. It generates revenue primarily through product sales across residential, commercial, and industrial segments — with plumbing and HVAC supplies forming the core of its business — supplemented by value-added services like project management and fabrication. The company's competitive advantage lies in its extensive branch network, deep inventory, and strong relationships with both suppliers and professional contractors, creating a distribution moat that smaller players cannot easily replicate.
Market Cap
$49.0B
Revenue TTM
$31.6B
Net Income TTM
$2.1B
Net Margin
6.6%
FERG Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+4.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$3.48/$3.01
Revenue
$8.5B/$8.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.84/$2.77
Revenue
$8.2B/$7.7B
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.48/$3.48
Revenue
$8.5B/$8.5B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.28/$2.16
Revenue
$7.5B/$7.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $3.48/$3.01 | +15.6% | $8.5B/$8.4B | +1.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.84/$2.77 | +2.5% | $8.2B/$7.7B | +5.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.48/$3.48 | +0.0% | $8.5B/$8.5B | +0.0% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.28/$2.16 | +5.6% | $7.5B/$7.6B | -1.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$32.9B
+3.9% YoY
FY2
$34.5B
+5.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$11.14
+4.7% YoY
FY2
$11.94
+7.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.0B
FCF Margin: 3.2%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
FERG beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
FERG Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $29.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
United States Segment
100.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Canada Segment
100.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
United States Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
Canada Segment is the largest reported region at 100.0%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
FERG Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fairly Valued
Fair value est. $264 — implies -0.1% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
0.1%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
FERG
27.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+7% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
FERG
27.1x
vs
Industrials
25.9x
In line with benchmark
vs FERG 5Y Avg P/E
Today
27.1x
vs
5Y Average
20.4x
+32% premium
Forward PE
22.6x
S&P 500
19.1x
+19%
Industrials
20.8x
+9%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
27.1x
S&P 500
25.2x
+7%
Industrials
25.9x
+5%
5Y Avg
20.4x
+32%
PEG Ratio
1.59x
S&P 500
1.75x
-9%
Industrials
1.59x
-0%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
18.2x
S&P 500
15.3x
+20%
Industrials
13.9x
+31%
5Y Avg
14.3x
+27%
Price/FCF
30.6x
S&P 500
21.3x
+43%
Industrials
20.6x
+48%
5Y Avg
26.5x
+16%
Price/Sales
1.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
-49%
Industrials
1.6x
+0%
5Y Avg
1.3x
+24%
Dividend Yield
0.97%
S&P 500
1.88%
-48%
Industrials
1.24%
-21%
5Y Avg
2.04%
-52%
| Metric | FERG | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg FERG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 22.6x | 19.1x+19% | 20.8x | — |
| Trailing PE | 27.1x | 25.2x | 25.9x | 20.4x+32% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.59x | 1.75x | 1.59x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.2x | 15.3x+20% | 13.9x+31% | 14.3x+27% |
| Price/FCF | 30.6x | 21.3x+43% | 20.6x+48% | 26.5x+16% |
| Price/Sales | 1.6x | 3.1x-49% | 1.6x | 1.3x+24% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.97% | 1.88% | 1.24% | 2.04% |
FERG trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolFERG Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
FERG 18.0% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage — returns 2.9% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$31.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+4.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
30.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
9.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
6.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$10.64
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.0B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
3.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
18.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
11.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$674M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$5.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
5.2× FCF
~5.2 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
35.1%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.9%
Dividend
1.0%
Buyback
1.9%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$948M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.45
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
26.3%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
194M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageFERG Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Economic Sensitivity
Ferguson's revenue is tightly linked to the construction industry, which is cyclical. A downturn in residential and non‑residential markets, such as lower housing starts, can sharply reduce sales and operations.
Medium
Competitive Landscape
The company faces intense competition from new entrants and existing rivals expanding capabilities. To maintain market position, Ferguson must continuously innovate, and its P/E ratio may be higher than the sector average, adding pricing pressure.
Medium
Supply Chain Disruptions
Geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, and public health crises can disrupt Ferguson's supply chain, causing inventory shortages and higher costs. These disruptions could impair the company's ability to serve customers effectively.
Medium
Earnings Misses & Guidance
The latest earnings report missed consensus EPS estimates, and management projected a slowdown in total growth due to pressure in new residential construction and HVAC dynamics. This could affect investor confidence and future cash flows.
Lower
Debt Levels
Ferguson has a high debt‑to‑equity ratio, and while interest payments are covered by EBIT, debt servicing depends on sustained earnings growth. Elevated leverage could constrain financial flexibility.
Medium
Valuation Concerns
Current share price may exceed its discounted cash flow fair value, and the P/E ratio is at or above industry averages, raising concerns about overvaluation.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why FERG Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
FY2026 Sales & Margin Growth
Ferguson projects FY2026 total sales of $31.9 billion, a 4% year‑over‑year increase driven by sustainable pricing and solid organic growth. The company’s gross margin has risen to 31.7%, reflecting operational efficiency and strategic supplier price adjustments. In Q3 2025, Ferguson reported an EPS of $2.50, beating estimates by 23.76%.
Non‑Residential Market Expansion
The non‑residential end markets have grown 15%, bolstered by large‑scale mega‑projects such as data centers and manufacturing facilities. This segment growth is a key driver of the company’s overall revenue momentum.
Aggressive Capital Return Program
Ferguson completed a $4.24 billion buyback of 27.68 million shares, retiring 13.2% of shares since 2021. The quarterly dividend was raised to $0.89, a 7% increase from the prior year, underscoring the company’s commitment to shareholder returns.
Strategic Growth & Guidance Upside
Management has raised full‑year guidance for net sales and profitability, emphasizing bolt‑on acquisitions and organic investments. The long‑term vision targets annual revenue growth of 6%–11%, positioning Ferguson for sustained expansion.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
FERG Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$252.21
52W Range Position
82%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$166.04
+51.9% from the low
52-Week High
$271.64
-7.2% from the high
1 Month
+5.48%
3 Month
-4.02%
YTD
+12.1%
1 Year
+49.5%
3Y CAGR
+21.4%
5Y CAGR
+14.0%
10Y CAGR
+15.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
FERG vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
22.6x
vs 26.8x median
-16% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+3.9%
vs +1.2% median
+222% above peer median
Net Margin
6.6%
vs 7.6% median
-14% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FER FERG Ferguson plc | $49.0B | 22.6x | +3.9% | 6.6% | Buy | +7.5% |
GWW GWW W.W. Grainger, Inc. | $55.6B | 26.8x | +5.7% | 9.5% | Hold | -1.1% |
MSM MSM MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. | $5.9B | 24.1x | +1.2% | 5.4% | Hold | -6.9% |
FAS FAST Fastenal Company | $51.3B | 36.1x | +8.9% | 15.3% | Hold | +4.2% |
POO POOL Pool Corporation | $6.9B | 17.0x | +0.1% | 7.6% | Buy | +48.6% |
WSO WSO Watsco, Inc. | $17.6B | 34.3x | +0.1% | 6.8% | Hold | -7.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FERG Dividend and Capital Return
FERG returns capital mainly through $948M/year in buybacks (1.9% buyback yield), with a modest 0.97% dividend — combining for 2.9% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.9%
Dividend Yield
0.97%
Payout Ratio
26.3%
How FERG Splits Its Return
Div 0.97%
Buyback 1.9%
Dividend 0.97%Buybacks 1.9%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.45
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
-10.7%
5Y Div CAGR
3.6%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$948M
Estimated Shares Retired
4M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.9%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
194M
At 1.9%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.78 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.49 | -22.2% | 2.1% | 3.2% |
| 2024 | $3.20 | +5.3% | 1.4% | 3.1% |
| 2023 | $3.04 | -13.1% | 2.7% | 4.8% |
| 2022 | $3.50 | -16.5% | 5.9% | 7.9% |
FAQ
7 questionsFERG Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Ferguson plc (FERG) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Ferguson plc (FERG) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 14 analysts covering the stock, 11 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 3 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $271, implying +7.5% from the current price of $252. The bear case scenario is $182 and the bull case is $464.
02What is the FERG stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for FERG is $271 based on 14 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $300 (+18.9% from today), and the low-end target is $220 (-12.8%). The base case model target is $323.
03Is Ferguson plc (FERG) stock overvalued in 2026?
FERG trades at 22.6x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fairly valued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Ferguson plc (FERG) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for FERG in 2026 are: (1) Economic Sensitivity — Ferguson's revenue is tightly linked to the construction industry, which is cyclical. (2) Competitive Landscape — The company faces intense competition from new entrants and existing rivals expanding capabilities. (3) Supply Chain Disruptions — Geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, and public health crises can disrupt Ferguson's supply chain, causing inventory shortages and higher costs. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Ferguson plc's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates FERG will report consensus revenue of $32.9B (+3.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $11.14 (+4.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $34.5B in revenue.
06When does Ferguson plc (FERG) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for FERG is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Ferguson plc generate?
Ferguson plc (FERG) generated $1.0B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 3.2%. FERG returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.0% yield) and share repurchases ($948M TTM).