Upside case
Bull case
$79+214.0%
FHN would need investors to value it at roughly 37x earnings — about 25x more generous than today's 12x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
First Horizon Corporation (FHN) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
35
analysts
15 bullish · 0 bearish · 35 covering FHN
Strong Buy
0
Buy
15
Hold
20
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$28
+11.7% vs today
Scenario Range
$23 – $79
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
35
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
11.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $12.2B
FHN price targets
Three scenarios for where FHN stock could go
Current
~$25
Confidence
65 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $25
Bear
$23
Base
$31
Bull
$79
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$31+22.3%
At 14x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$23-9.7%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 1x multiple contraction could push FHN down roughly 10% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
First Horizon Corporation
FHN · NYSEFinancial ServicesBanks - RegionalDecember year-end
First Horizon Corporation is a regional bank holding company that provides commercial and consumer banking services primarily across the southeastern United States. It generates revenue through net interest income from loans and deposits (roughly 70% of total revenue) and non-interest income from mortgage banking, capital markets, and wealth management services. The company's competitive advantage lies in its deep regional presence and established customer relationships in its core markets, supported by a diversified revenue mix beyond traditional banking.
Market Cap
$12.2B
Net Income TTM
$982M
FHN Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
90%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
22%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+8.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q4 2025
EPS
$0.51/$0.45
Revenue
$865M/$847M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.52/$0.46
Revenue
$891M/$861M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.53/—
Revenue
$1.3B/—
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.53/$0.49
Revenue
$864M/$869M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $0.51/$0.45 | +14.5% | $865M/$847M | +2.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.52/$0.46 | +13.0% | $891M/$861M | +3.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.53/— | — | $1.3B/— | — |
| Q2 2026 | $0.53/$0.49 | +8.2% | $864M/$869M | -0.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$4.4B
-11.8% YoY
FY2
$4.6B
+4.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.17
+9.4% YoY
FY2
$2.30
+6.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$628M
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
FHN beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
FHN Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $40M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Underwriting, Portfolio Advisory, and Other Noninterest Income
100.0%
-4.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Wholesale Segment
100.0%
+15.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Underwriting, Portfolio Advisory, and Other Noninterest Income is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, down 4.8% YoY.
Wholesale Segment is the largest reported region at 100.0%, up 15.3% YoY.
FHN Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fairly Valued
Fair value est. $24 — implies -1.7% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
1.7%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
FHN
13.3x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
47% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
FHN
13.3x
vs
Financial Services
13.4x
In line with benchmark
vs FHN 5Y Avg P/E
Today
13.3x
vs
5Y Average
12.4x
+7% premium
Forward PE
11.7x
S&P 500
19.1x
-39%
Financial Services
10.5x
+11%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
13.3x
S&P 500
25.2x
-47%
Financial Services
13.4x
-0%
5Y Avg
12.4x
+7%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Financial Services
1.03x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
11.8x
S&P 500
15.3x
-23%
Financial Services
11.4x
+3%
5Y Avg
10.9x
+9%
Price/FCF
19.4x
S&P 500
21.3x
-9%
Financial Services
10.6x
+82%
5Y Avg
10.7x
+80%
Price/Sales
2.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
-22%
Financial Services
2.3x
+8%
5Y Avg
2.6x
-8%
Dividend Yield
2.53%
S&P 500
1.88%
+34%
Financial Services
2.68%
-6%
5Y Avg
3.19%
-21%
| Metric | FHN | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg FHN |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 11.7x | 19.1x-39% | 10.5x+11% | — |
| Trailing PE | 13.3x | 25.2x-47% | 13.4x | 12.4x |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.03x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.8x | 15.3x-23% | 11.4x | 10.9x |
| Price/FCF | 19.4x | 21.3x | 10.6x+82% | 10.7x+80% |
| Price/Sales | 2.4x | 3.1x-22% | 2.3x | 2.6x |
| Dividend Yield | 2.53% | 1.88% | 2.68% | 3.19% |
FHN trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolFHN Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
FHN generates 10.7% ROE and 1.2% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.98
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
10.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
7.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
1.2%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$961M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$3.6B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
10.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
10.1%
Dividend
2.5%
Buyback
7.5%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$918M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.63
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
496M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageFHN Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Interest Rate Fluctuations
Changes in interest rates can significantly impact net interest income (NII), which is a key driver of profitability for First Horizon Corporation (FHN). Anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025 may stimulate borrowing, but the overall interest rate environment remains a challenge.
High Risk
Economic Downturns
FHN is susceptible to earnings and asset quality pressures during economic downturns, which can lead to increased nonperforming assets and net charge-offs. This risk is particularly pronounced given the current economic climate affecting regional banks.
High Risk
Deposit Outflows
Potential deposit outflows pose a significant risk to FHN's liquidity and funding capabilities. Such outflows can severely impact the bank's operational stability and financial health.
Medium
Competition
FHN operates in a highly competitive regional banking sector, facing pressure from established national institutions, other regional banks, and fintech challengers. This competition affects rate pricing, service quality, and technological innovation, potentially impacting FHN's market share.
Medium
Regulatory and Compliance Risks
As a financial institution, FHN is subject to extensive regulation, and changes in laws and regulations present ongoing compliance challenges. Continuous investment in compliance infrastructure is necessary to mitigate these risks.
Medium
Loan Portfolio Performance
The performance of FHN's loan portfolio is a critical risk factor, especially with contractions in specific loan types such as commercial real estate and mortgage warehouse loans. Although the portfolio is diversified, any significant downturn in loan performance could adversely affect earnings.
Lower
Insider Selling
Recent periods have shown more insider selling than buying of FHN stock, which may indicate a lack of confidence among insiders regarding the company's future performance. This trend could negatively influence investor sentiment.
Lower
Analyst Coverage and Sentiment
While FHN has strong analyst interest, the consensus rating is 'Hold,' with a price target close to the current price. This suggests limited near-term upside and indicates elevated downside risk, which could affect stock performance.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why FHN Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Financial Strength and Profitability
First Horizon has demonstrated a solid financial foundation with consistent revenue growth and profitability. Its trailing twelve months (TTM) net income stands at $1.01 billion, showcasing its profitability, with Q1 2026 net income reported at $263 million, up from the previous quarter.
Growth and Expansion
First Horizon is actively expanding its footprint, with approximately 500 banking offices across 22 states. The company's tangible book value has also shown strong growth, increasing by 2.7% quarter-over-quarter in Q4 2025.
Attractive Valuation
The stock is trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of around 11.30 to 12.33, which is considered attractive compared to industry averages. Some analysts believe the stock is trading at a significant discount to its estimated fair value.
Shareholder Returns
First Horizon offers a meaningful dividend yield of approximately 2.52% to 2.81%, which is considered sustainable. Additionally, the company has announced an equity buyback program of $1,200 million, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders.
Diverse Product Offering
The company's diverse range of products and services, spanning regional banking, specialty banking, and corporate services, positions it well to cater to a broad customer base. This diversity enhances its ability to generate revenue from various segments.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
FHN Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$25.07
52W Range Position
81%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$18.55
+35.1% from the low
52-Week High
$26.56
-5.6% from the high
1 Month
+7.69%
3 Month
-4.42%
YTD
+3.9%
1 Year
+34.9%
3Y CAGR
+32.8%
5Y CAGR
+5.7%
10Y CAGR
+6.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
FHN vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
11.7x
vs 11.4x median
+3% above peer median
Revenue Growth
-11.8%
vs -7.9% median
-49% below peer median
Net Margin
—
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FHN FHN First Horizon Corporation | $12.2B | 11.7x | -11.8% | — | Hold | +11.7% |
ZIO ZION Zions Bancorporation, National Association | $9.5B | 9.9x | -13.2% | — | Hold | +6.1% |
CFG CFG Citizens Financial Group, Inc. | $28.3B | 12.7x | -9.7% | — | Buy | +10.4% |
HBA HBAN Huntington Bancshares Incorporated | $26.3B | 11.4x | -1.5% | — | Buy | +22.5% |
RF RF Regions Financial Corporation | $24.5B | 10.8x | -7.9% | — | Hold | +9.1% |
FIT FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | $34.1B | 16.5x | +2.0% | — | Buy | +11.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FHN Dividend and Capital Return
FHN returns capital mainly through $918M/year in buybacks (7.6% buyback yield), with a modest 2.55% dividend — combining for 10.2% total shareholder yield.
Dividend UnknownFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
10.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
7.6%
Dividend Yield
2.55%
Payout Ratio
—
How FHN Splits Its Return
Div 2.55%
Buyback 7.6%
Dividend 2.55%Buybacks 7.6%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.63
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
3Y
3Y Div CAGR
0.0%
5Y Div CAGR
0.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$918M
Estimated Shares Retired
37M
Approx. Share Reduction
7.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
496M
At 7.4%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.34 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.60 | 0.0% | 7.7% | 10.4% |
| 2024 | $0.60 | 0.0% | 5.7% | 8.7% |
| 2023 | $0.60 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 4.3% |
| 2022 | $0.60 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 2.4% |
FAQ
7 questionsFHN Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is First Horizon Corporation (FHN) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
First Horizon Corporation (FHN) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 35 analysts covering the stock, 15 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 20 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $28, implying +11.7% from the current price of $25. The bear case scenario is $23 and the bull case is $79.
02What is the FHN stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for FHN is $28 based on 35 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $30 (+19.7% from today), and the low-end target is $27 (+7.7%). The base case model target is $31.
03Is First Horizon Corporation (FHN) stock overvalued in 2026?
FHN trades at 11.7x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fairly valued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for First Horizon Corporation (FHN) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for FHN in 2026 are: (1) Interest Rate Fluctuations — Changes in interest rates can significantly impact net interest income (NII), which is a key driver of profitability for First Horizon Corporation (FHN). (2) Economic Downturns — FHN is susceptible to earnings and asset quality pressures during economic downturns, which can lead to increased nonperforming assets and net charge-offs. (3) Deposit Outflows — Potential deposit outflows pose a significant risk to FHN's liquidity and funding capabilities. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is First Horizon Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates FHN will report consensus revenue of $4.4B (-11.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.17 (+9.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $4.6B in revenue.
06When does First Horizon Corporation (FHN) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for FHN is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does First Horizon Corporation generate?
First Horizon Corporation (FHN) generated $628M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. FHN returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.6% yield) and share repurchases ($918M TTM).