Upside case
Bull case
$4374+117.5%
FIX would need investors to value it at roughly 104x earnings — about 56x more generous than today's 48x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (FIX) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
9
analysts
5 bullish · 0 bearish · 9 covering FIX
Strong Buy
0
Buy
5
Hold
4
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$1923
-4.4% vs today
Scenario Range
$1088 – $4374
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
9
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
47.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $70.8B
FIX price targets
Three scenarios for where FIX stock could go
Current
~$2011
Confidence
78 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $2011
Bear
$1088
Base
$3855
Bull
$4374
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$3855+91.7%
At 91x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$1088-45.9%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 22x multiple contraction could push FIX down roughly 46% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Comfort Systems USA, Inc.
FIX · NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionDecember year-end
Comfort Systems USA is a mechanical and electrical services contractor that installs, maintains, and repairs HVAC, plumbing, and electrical systems in commercial and industrial buildings. It generates revenue primarily from construction contracts for new installations and retrofits, supplemented by ongoing service and maintenance agreements. The company's competitive advantage lies in its national scale and technical expertise across complex MEP systems—which creates long-term customer relationships through recurring service work.
Market Cap
$70.8B
Revenue TTM
$10.1B
Net Income TTM
$1.2B
Net Margin
12.1%
FIX Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+26.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$6.53/$4.84
Revenue
$2.2B/$2.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$8.25/$6.29
Revenue
$2.5B/$2.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$9.37/$6.75
Revenue
$2.6B/$2.3B
Q2 2026
EPS
$10.51/$6.81
Revenue
$2.9B/$2.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $6.53/$4.84 | +34.9% | $2.2B/$2.0B | +10.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $8.25/$6.29 | +31.2% | $2.5B/$2.2B | +13.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $9.37/$6.75 | +38.8% | $2.6B/$2.3B | +13.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $10.51/$6.81 | +54.3% | $2.9B/$2.4B | +19.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$12.5B
+23.6% YoY
FY2
$15.5B
+24.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$43.80
+26.2% YoY
FY2
$55.36
+26.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.4B
FCF Margin: 13.6%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
FIX beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
FIX Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $9.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Mechanical Segment
73.3%
+20.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Mechanical Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 73.3% of FY 2025 revenue, up 20.7% YoY.
FIX Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $855 — implies -54.3% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
54.3%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
FIX
69.6x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+176% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
FIX
69.6x
vs
Industrials
25.9x
+169% premium
vs FIX 5Y Avg P/E
Today
69.6x
vs
5Y Average
25.2x
+176% premium
Forward PE
47.7x
S&P 500
19.1x
+150%
Industrials
20.8x
+129%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
69.6x
S&P 500
25.2x
+176%
Industrials
25.9x
+169%
5Y Avg
25.2x
+176%
PEG Ratio
1.46x
S&P 500
1.75x
-17%
Industrials
1.59x
-8%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
48.5x
S&P 500
15.3x
+218%
Industrials
13.9x
+249%
5Y Avg
16.7x
+191%
Price/FCF
68.6x
S&P 500
21.3x
+222%
Industrials
20.6x
+232%
5Y Avg
21.1x
+225%
Price/Sales
7.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
+148%
Industrials
1.6x
+389%
5Y Avg
1.9x
+314%
Dividend Yield
0.10%
S&P 500
1.88%
-95%
Industrials
1.24%
-92%
5Y Avg
0.37%
-74%
| Metric | FIX | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg FIX |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 47.7x | 19.1x+150% | 20.8x+129% | — |
| Trailing PE | 69.6x | 25.2x+176% | 25.9x+169% | 25.2x+176% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.46x | 1.75x-17% | 1.59x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 48.5x | 15.3x+218% | 13.9x+249% | 16.7x+191% |
| Price/FCF | 68.6x | 21.3x+222% | 20.6x+232% | 21.1x+225% |
| Price/Sales | 7.8x | 3.1x+148% | 1.6x+389% | 1.9x+314% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.10% | 1.88% | 1.24% | 0.37% |
FIX trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolFIX Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
FIX generates $1.4B in free cash flow at a 13.6% margin — 53.0% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$10.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+38.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
25.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
15.7%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
12.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$34.71
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.4B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
13.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
53.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
20.2%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$982M
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$196M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
51.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.4%
Dividend
0.1%
Buyback
0.3%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$216M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.94
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
6.7%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
35M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageFIX Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Economic Downturns
Recessions or sharp GDP contractions can depress corporate earnings, increase credit risk, and trigger market sell‑offs. Companies with high debt or low cash reserves are especially vulnerable.
High Risk
Interest Rate Volatility
Rapid changes in short‑term rates raise borrowing costs and compress profit margins. Rising rates can also shift investor preference toward fixed income, pressuring equity valuations.
High Risk
High Leverage
A net debt‑to‑EBITDA ratio above industry norms amplifies earnings volatility and heightens default risk during downturns. Debt servicing costs can erode cash flow and limit growth.
Medium
Inflationary Pressures
Persistently rising inflation erodes purchasing power and pushes input costs higher, squeezing margins. Companies with limited pricing power may see earnings compressed.
Medium
Political & Regulatory Risk
Changes in tax policy, trade tariffs, or regulatory frameworks can alter cost structures and market access. Geopolitical events can create uncertainty and disrupt supply chains.
Lower
Liquidity Constraints
Low trading volume or high bid‑ask spreads can make it difficult to exit positions at fair value, especially in volatile markets. Illiquid stocks may experience wider price swings.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why FIX Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Robust Backlog Growth
Comfort Systems’ backlog reached $8.1 billion at the end of its latest reporting period, up significantly from the prior year. This large, growing order book underpins the company’s revenue trajectory and provides a cushion against cyclical demand swings.
Data Center Exposure
The firm is a lesser‑known play in AI infrastructure, with its products heavily used in data centers. Demand from the technology sector, especially data center deployments, has driven both revenue and backlog expansion.
Strategic Acquisitions
FIX has a track record of using M&A to add capabilities and enter attractive niches. This flexibility allows the company to pursue growth opportunities while rewarding shareholders.
Growing Service Business
The company’s service growth initiative, national scale, and expanding electrical footprint are positioned as key growth drivers, complementing its product sales.
Financial Strength & Dividend Growth
Comfort Systems ended 2025 with approximately $981.9 million in cash and very modest debt, giving it flexibility for acquisitions and shareholder returns. The firm has also delivered 14 consecutive years of dividend growth as of 2025.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
FIX Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$2011.21
52W Range Position
100%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$422.53
+376.0% from the low
52-Week High
$2018.05
-0.3% from the high
1 Month
+40.24%
3 Month
+63.48%
YTD
+100.4%
1 Year
+368.8%
3Y CAGR
+138.7%
5Y CAGR
+87.6%
10Y CAGR
+51.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
FIX vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
47.7x
vs 46.8x median
+2% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+23.6%
vs +13.9% median
+70% above peer median
Net Margin
12.1%
vs 3.7% median
+225% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FIX FIX Comfort Systems USA, Inc. | $70.8B | 47.7x | +23.6% | 12.1% | Buy | -4.4% |
MTZ MTZ MasTec, Inc. | $34.2B | 51.1x | +14.3% | 3.0% | Buy | -23.8% |
PWR PWR Quanta Services, Inc. | $117.8B | 60.0x | +14.9% | 3.7% | Buy | -17.6% |
WLD WLDN Willdan Group, Inc. | $1.1B | 18.4x | +8.0% | 7.7% | Buy | +55.2% |
MYR MYRG MYR Group Inc. | $7.1B | 46.8x | +8.0% | 3.7% | Hold | -20.4% |
EME EME EMCOR Group, Inc. | $42.0B | 32.2x | +13.9% | 7.5% | Buy | -1.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FIX Dividend and Capital Return
FIX returns capital mainly through $216M/year in buybacks (0.3% buyback yield), with a modest 0.10% dividend — combining for 0.4% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 20 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
0.4%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.3%
Dividend Yield
0.10%
Payout Ratio
6.7%
How FIX Splits Its Return
Div 0.10%
Buyback 0.3%
Dividend 0.10%Buybacks 0.3%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.94
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
20Y
3Y Div CAGR
51.6%
5Y Div CAGR
35.6%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$216M
Estimated Shares Retired
107.4K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
35M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.50 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.95 | +62.5% | 0.7% | 0.9% |
| 2024 | $1.20 | +41.2% | 0.4% | 0.7% |
| 2023 | $0.85 | +51.8% | 0.3% | 0.7% |
| 2022 | $0.56 | +16.7% | 0.9% | 1.4% |
FAQ
7 questionsFIX Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (FIX) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (FIX) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 9 analysts covering the stock, 5 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 4 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $1923, implying -4.4% from the current price of $2011. The bear case scenario is $1088 and the bull case is $4374.
02What is the FIX stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for FIX is $1923 based on 9 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $2004 (-0.4% from today), and the low-end target is $1800 (-10.5%). The base case model target is $3855.
03Is Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (FIX) stock overvalued in 2026?
FIX trades at 47.7x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (FIX) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for FIX in 2026 are: (1) Economic Downturns — Recessions or sharp GDP contractions can depress corporate earnings, increase credit risk, and trigger market sell‑offs. (2) Interest Rate Volatility — Rapid changes in short‑term rates raise borrowing costs and compress profit margins. (3) High Leverage — A net debt‑to‑EBITDA ratio above industry norms amplifies earnings volatility and heightens default risk during downturns. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Comfort Systems USA, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates FIX will report consensus revenue of $12.5B (+23.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $43.80 (+26.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $15.5B in revenue.
06When does Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (FIX) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for FIX is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Comfort Systems USA, Inc. generate?
Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (FIX) generated $1.4B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 13.6%. FIX returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.1% yield) and share repurchases ($216M TTM).