Upside case
Bull case
$407+73.6%
FNV would need investors to value it at roughly 47x earnings — about 20x more generous than today's 27x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Franco-Nevada Corporation (FNV) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
25
analysts
11 bullish · 2 bearish · 25 covering FNV
Strong Buy
0
Buy
11
Hold
12
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$275
+17.4% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $407
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
25
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
27.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $45.2B
FNV price targets
Three scenarios for where FNV stock could go
Current
~$235
Confidence
40 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $235
Base
$352
Bull
$407
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$352+50.2%
At 41x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Franco-Nevada Corporation
FNV · NYSEBasic MaterialsGoldDecember year-end
Franco-Nevada is a gold-focused royalty and streaming company that provides upfront financing to mining operators in exchange for future revenue rights. It generates revenue primarily from precious metal royalties (roughly 80% of revenue) and energy royalties (about 20%), collecting a percentage of production or purchasing metals at fixed prices. Its key advantage is a diversified portfolio of long-life, low-cost assets that requires no operational involvement or capital expenditures.
Market Cap
$45.2B
Revenue TTM
$1.8B
Net Income TTM
$1.1B
Net Margin
61.1%
FNV Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+4.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$1.07/$1.00
Revenue
$368M/$333M
Q3 2025
EPS
$1.24/$1.10
Revenue
$369M/$433M
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.43/$1.37
Revenue
$488M/$536M
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.85/$1.68
Revenue
$597M/$540M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $1.07/$1.00 | +7.0% | $368M/$333M | +10.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.24/$1.10 | +12.7% | $369M/$433M | -14.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.43/$1.37 | +4.4% | $488M/$536M | -9.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.85/$1.68 | +10.1% | $597M/$540M | +10.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$2.5B
+37.5% YoY
FY2
$3.3B
+31.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$6.84
+18.0% YoY
FY2
$8.80
+28.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$695M
FCF Margin: -38.0%
Next Earnings
May 12, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.10
Expected Revenue
$632M
FNV beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
FNV Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $3.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Mining
34.1%
+10.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Peru
20.1%
+15.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Mining is the largest disclosed segment at 34.1% of FY 2024 revenue, up 10.1% YoY.
Peru is the largest reported region at 20.1%, up 15.1% YoY.
FNV Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $140 — implies -38.0% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
38.0%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
FNV
40.0x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+59% premium
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
FNV
40.0x
vs
Basic Materials
22.9x
+75% premium
vs FNV 5Y Avg P/E
Today
40.0x
vs
5Y Average
37.9x
+6% premium
Forward PE
27.1x
S&P 500
19.1x
+42%
Basic Materials
15.4x
+76%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
40.0x
S&P 500
25.2x
+59%
Basic Materials
22.9x
+75%
5Y Avg
37.9x
+6%
PEG Ratio
1.50x
S&P 500
1.75x
-14%
Basic Materials
1.22x
+23%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
27.5x
S&P 500
15.3x
+80%
Basic Materials
11.4x
+141%
5Y Avg
23.5x
+17%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.3x
—
Basic Materials
27.5x
—
5Y Avg
66.4x
—
Price/Sales
24.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
+679%
Basic Materials
2.0x
+1141%
5Y Avg
20.1x
+21%
Dividend Yield
0.62%
S&P 500
1.88%
-67%
Basic Materials
1.37%
-55%
5Y Avg
0.86%
-28%
| Metric | FNV | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg FNV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 27.1x | 19.1x+42% | 15.4x+76% | — |
| Trailing PE | 40.0x | 25.2x+59% | 22.9x+75% | 37.9x |
| PEG Ratio | 1.50x | 1.75x-14% | 1.22x+23% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 27.5x | 15.3x+80% | 11.4x+141% | 23.5x+17% |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.3x | 27.5x | 66.4x |
| Price/Sales | 24.4x | 3.1x+679% | 2.0x+1141% | 20.1x+21% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.62% | 1.88% | 1.37% | 0.86% |
FNV trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolFNV Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
FNV 16.8% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$1.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+64.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
73.9%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
74.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
61.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$5.80
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
-$695M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
-38.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
16.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
15.2%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$433M
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$425M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
16.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.6%
Dividend
0.6%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.45
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
24.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
193M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageFNV Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Commodity Price Risk
Franco‑Nevada’s revenue is directly linked to the spot prices of gold and oil. A sustained decline in either commodity can compress the company’s top line and margin profile, as royalty and streaming fees are priced in real‑time to market rates.
High Risk
Counterparty Production Risk
The firm relies on third‑party mining operators to maintain production at its royalty and streaming assets. If an operator experiences a shutdown, production slowdown, or ceases operations, Franco‑Nevada’s cash‑flow stream can be materially disrupted.
High Risk
Future Production Forecasts
Management projects a decline in total gold‑equivalent ounces (GEOs) for 2030, signaling a potential drop in future royalty income. This forecast raises concerns about long‑term profitability, especially in a volatile commodity environment.
Medium
Concentration Risk
A few large assets, notably the Cobre Panamá mine, dominate Franco‑Nevada’s portfolio. The mine’s operations are exposed to political and regulatory uncertainty, and future processing permissions for stockpiled ore remain unclear.
Medium
Company‑Specific Risk
Earnings misses, negative news releases, or adverse management decisions can trigger a sharp decline in the stock price, independent of the underlying commodity performance.
Medium
Insider Selling
Significant insider selling has occurred over the past three months, which may signal management’s lack of confidence in the company’s near‑term prospects and could weigh on investor sentiment.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why FNV Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Robust Financial Growth
Franco‑Nevada has posted significant year‑over‑year increases in revenue and earnings, with quarterly results consistently beating analyst forecasts. The company’s earnings have exceeded analysts’ expectations in recent quarters.
Low‑Risk Royalty Model
As a royalty and streaming company, FNV gains exposure to rising commodity prices while avoiding the operational risks of traditional mining. This model limits exposure to operating‑cost inflation and provides stable cash flows.
Strategic Asset Expansion
The company actively acquires long‑life, gold‑focused royalty packages from third‑party operators, recently adding significant gold projects to its portfolio. These acquisitions broaden FNV’s exposure across precious metals, iron ore, and energy commodities.
Dividend Growth
FNV offers a solid dividend payout and has recently increased its quarterly dividend, providing an attractive income stream for investors. The dividend growth reflects the company’s strong cash generation.
Commodity Supercycle Exposure
FNV is well‑positioned to benefit from a potential commodity supercycle, offering investors a unique way to gain exposure to this trend. The company’s diversified portfolio enhances its ability to capture upside from commodity price rallies.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
FNV Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$234.50
52W Range Position
61%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$152.89
+53.4% from the low
52-Week High
$285.67
-17.9% from the high
1 Month
-8.56%
3 Month
+1.04%
YTD
+12.4%
1 Year
+36.5%
3Y CAGR
+13.7%
5Y CAGR
+9.9%
10Y CAGR
+12.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
FNV vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
27.1x
vs 19.9x median
+36% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+37.5%
vs +41.2% median
-9% below peer median
Net Margin
61.1%
vs 48.5% median
+26% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FNV FNV Franco-Nevada Corporation | $45.2B | 27.1x | +37.5% | 61.1% | Hold | +17.4% |
WPM WPM Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. | $61.1B | 24.8x | +42.4% | 63.6% | Buy | +13.3% |
RGL RGLD Royal Gold, Inc. | $16.4B | 19.9x | +41.2% | 48.5% | Buy | +28.7% |
OR OR OR Royalties Inc. | $7.3B | 18.9x | +58.0% | 74.3% | Buy | +14.9% |
EMX EMX EMX Royalty Corporation | $453M | 45.0x | +37.6% | 18.1% | Buy | +38.2% |
NEM NEM Newmont Corporation | $127.5B | 11.0x | +35.1% | 30.5% | Buy | +19.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FNV Dividend and Capital Return
FNV returns 0.6% total yield, led by a 0.64% dividend, raised 17 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
0.64%
Payout Ratio
24.7%
How FNV Splits Its Return
Div 0.64%
Dividend 0.64%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.45
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
17Y
3Y Div CAGR
5.9%
5Y Div CAGR
8.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
193M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.44 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.52 | +5.6% | 0.0% | 0.7% |
| 2024 | $1.44 | +5.9% | 0.0% | 1.1% |
| 2023 | $1.36 | +6.3% | 0.0% | 1.1% |
| 2022 | $1.28 | +10.3% | 0.0% | 0.8% |
FAQ
7 questionsFNV Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Franco-Nevada Corporation (FNV) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Franco-Nevada Corporation (FNV) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 25 analysts covering the stock, 11 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 12 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $275, implying +17.4% from the current price of $235.
02What is the FNV stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for FNV is $275 based on 25 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $310 (+32.2% from today), and the low-end target is $228 (-2.8%). The base case model target is $352.
03Is Franco-Nevada Corporation (FNV) stock overvalued in 2026?
FNV trades at 27.1x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Franco-Nevada Corporation (FNV) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for FNV in 2026 are: (1) Commodity Price Risk — Franco‑Nevada’s revenue is directly linked to the spot prices of gold and oil. (2) Counterparty Production Risk — The firm relies on third‑party mining operators to maintain production at its royalty and streaming assets. (3) Future Production Forecasts — Management projects a decline in total gold‑equivalent ounces (GEOs) for 2030, signaling a potential drop in future royalty income. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Franco-Nevada Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates FNV will report consensus revenue of $2.5B (+37.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $6.84 (+18.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $3.3B in revenue.
06When does Franco-Nevada Corporation (FNV) report its next earnings?
Franco-Nevada Corporation is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-12. Consensus expects EPS of $2.10 and revenue of $632M. Over recent quarters, FNV has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Franco-Nevada Corporation generate?
Franco-Nevada Corporation (FNV) had a free cash outflow of $695M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 38.0%. FNV returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.6% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).