Upside case
Bull case
$218-0.6%
The bull case prices FNV at 24x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Franco-Nevada Corporation (FNV) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
26
analysts
12 bullish · 2 bearish · 26 covering FNV
Strong Buy
0
Buy
12
Hold
12
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$299
+36.4% vs today
Scenario Range
$104 – $218
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
26
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
24.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $42.3B
FNV price targets
Three scenarios for where FNV stock could go
Current
~$219
Confidence
45 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $219
Bear
$104
Base
$165
Bull
$218
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$165-24.6%
At 18x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$104-52.5%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 13x multiple contraction could push FNV down roughly 52% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Franco-Nevada Corporation
FNV · NYSEBasic MaterialsGoldDecember year-end
Franco-Nevada is a gold-focused royalty and streaming company that provides upfront financing to mining operators in exchange for future revenue rights. It generates revenue primarily from precious metal royalties (roughly 80% of revenue) and energy royalties (about 20%), collecting a percentage of production or purchasing metals at fixed prices. Its key advantage is a diversified portfolio of long-life, low-cost assets that requires no operational involvement or capital expenditures.
Market Cap
$42.3B
Revenue TTM
$2.1B
Net Income TTM
$1.4B
Net Margin
65.1%
FNV Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+5.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.24/$1.10
Revenue
$369M/$433M
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.43/$1.37
Revenue
$488M/$536M
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.85/$1.68
Revenue
$597M/$540M
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.38/$2.09
Revenue
$651M/$634M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.24/$1.10 | +12.7% | $369M/$433M | -14.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.43/$1.37 | +4.4% | $488M/$536M | -9.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.85/$1.68 | +10.1% | $597M/$540M | +10.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.38/$2.09 | +13.9% | $651M/$634M | +2.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$2.4B
+14.3% YoY
FY2
$2.8B
+16.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.98
-43.9% YoY
FY2
$4.63
+16.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.8B
FCF Margin: 84.4%
Next Earnings
August 11, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.09
Expected Revenue
$662M
FNV beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
FNV Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $5.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Mining
33.9%
+63.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Peru
21.1%
+71.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Mining is the largest disclosed segment at 33.9% of FY 2025 revenue, up 63.7% YoY.
Peru is the largest reported region at 21.1%, up 71.8% YoY.
FNV Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $290 — implies +32.3% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
32.3%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
FNV
37.4x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+53% premium
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
FNV
37.4x
vs
Basic Materials
23.6x
+59% premium
vs FNV 5Y Avg P/E
Today
37.4x
vs
5Y Average
37.9x
In line with benchmark
Forward PE
24.4x
S&P 500
18.8x
+30%
Basic Materials
14.9x
+64%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
37.4x
S&P 500
24.4x
+53%
Basic Materials
23.6x
+59%
5Y Avg
37.9x
-1%
PEG Ratio
1.41x
S&P 500
1.66x
-15%
Basic Materials
1.23x
+14%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
26.0x
S&P 500
15.2x
+71%
Basic Materials
11.0x
+136%
5Y Avg
22.6x
+15%
Price/FCF
28.4x
S&P 500
20.7x
+37%
Basic Materials
29.0x
-2%
5Y Avg
58.5x
-51%
Price/Sales
23.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
+650%
Basic Materials
1.9x
+1133%
5Y Avg
20.0x
+16%
Dividend Yield
0.65%
S&P 500
1.91%
-66%
Basic Materials
1.41%
-54%
5Y Avg
0.86%
-24%
| Metric | FNV | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg FNV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 24.4x | 18.8x+30% | 14.9x+64% | — |
| Trailing PE | 37.4x | 24.4x+53% | 23.6x+59% | 37.9x |
| PEG Ratio | 1.41x | 1.66x-15% | 1.23x+14% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 26.0x | 15.2x+71% | 11.0x+136% | 22.6x+15% |
| Price/FCF | 28.4x | 20.7x+37% | 29.0x | 58.5x-51% |
| Price/Sales | 23.2x | 3.1x+650% | 1.9x+1133% | 20.0x+16% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.65% | 1.91% | 1.41% | 0.86% |
FNV trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolFNV Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
FNV generates $1.8B in free cash flow at a 84.4% margin — 16.6% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$2.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+71.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
76.6%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
74.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
65.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$7.10
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.8B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
84.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
16.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
17.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$433M
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$425M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
18.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.7%
Dividend
0.7%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.43
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
24.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
193M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageFNV Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Price Target Risk
Bear case price target of $-102 indicates significant downside potential compared to base and bull cases.
Medium
Revenue Trajectory
Revenue trajectory factored into models shows uncertainty, with wide variance between bear and bull cases.
Medium
Market Performance
Risk-adjusted performance metrics compared to S&P 500 suggest potential underperformance.
Lower
Analyst Sentiment
Mixed analyst forecasts with varying price targets indicate disagreement on future performance.
High Risk
Legal Risks
Historical legal issues and settlements could pose reputational and financial risks.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why FNV Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Record financial performance
Franco-Nevada Corporation reported record first-quarter 2026 results, with sales rising to US$648.5 million and net income reaching US$468.6 million, showcasing strong financial growth.
Strong earnings per share
Basic earnings per share from continuing operations increased to US$2.43, highlighting profitability and shareholder value.
Expanded royalty portfolio
The quarter underscored Franco-Nevada's enlarged royalty and streaming portfolio, which contributes to diversified revenue streams.
High ESG rating
Franco-Nevada's upgraded AAA MSCI ESG rating reflects its strong environmental, social, and governance practices, appealing to ESG-focused investors.
Robust balance sheet
With US$3.40 billion of available capital, Franco-Nevada is well-positioned for future investments and growth opportunities.
Bullish revenue growth
A bull case for the next 3 years could see +10% annual revenue growth driven by soaring gold prices, indicating strong future performance.
Long-term growth prospects
From a 5-year to a 10-year perspective, FNV's growth prospects remain strong, suggesting sustained value creation.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
FNV Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$219.26
52W Range Position
50%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$152.89
+43.4% from the low
52-Week High
$285.67
-23.2% from the high
1 Month
-2.73%
3 Month
-9.89%
YTD
+5.1%
1 Year
+30.3%
3Y CAGR
+16.6%
5Y CAGR
+8.6%
10Y CAGR
+12.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
FNV vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
24.4x
vs 18.8x median
+30% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+14.3%
vs +13.6% median
+5% above peer median
Net Margin
65.1%
vs 48.5% median
+34% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FNV FNV Franco-Nevada Corporation | $42.3B | 24.4x | +14.3% | 65.1% | Buy | +36.4% |
WPM WPM Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. | $55.7B | 22.7x | +15.7% | 65.5% | Buy | +38.7% |
RGL RGLD Royal Gold, Inc. | $14.9B | 18.8x | +13.6% | 48.5% | Buy | +53.6% |
OR OR OR Royalties Inc. | $6.5B | 16.7x | +12.5% | 78.1% | Buy | +46.3% |
EMX EMX EMX Royalty Corporation | $453M | 45.0x | +10.3% | 18.3% | Buy | +38.2% |
NEM NEM Newmont Corporation | $115.0B | 10.1x | +16.2% | 30.5% | Buy | +38.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FNV Dividend and Capital Return
FNV returns 0.7% total yield, led by a 0.65% dividend, raised 18 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
0.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
0.65%
Payout Ratio
24.7%
How FNV Splits Its Return
Div 0.65%
Dividend 0.65%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.43
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
18Y
3Y Div CAGR
5.9%
5Y Div CAGR
8.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
193M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.88 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.52 | +5.6% | 0.0% | 0.7% |
| 2024 | $1.44 | +5.9% | 0.0% | 1.1% |
| 2023 | $1.36 | +6.3% | 0.0% | 1.1% |
| 2022 | $1.28 | +10.3% | 0.0% | 0.8% |
FAQ
7 questionsFNV Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Franco-Nevada Corporation (FNV) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Franco-Nevada Corporation (FNV) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 26 analysts covering the stock, 12 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 12 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $299, implying +36.4% from the current price of $219. The bear case scenario is $104 and the bull case is $218.
02What is the FNV stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for FNV is $299 based on 26 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $310 (+41.4% from today), and the low-end target is $290 (+32.3%). The base case model target is $165.
03Is Franco-Nevada Corporation (FNV) stock overvalued in 2026?
FNV trades at 24.4x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Franco-Nevada Corporation (FNV) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for FNV in 2026 are: (1) Price Target Risk — Bear case price target of $-102 indicates significant downside potential compared to base and bull cases. (2) Legal Risks — Historical legal issues and settlements could pose reputational and financial risks. (3) Revenue Trajectory — Revenue trajectory factored into models shows uncertainty, with wide variance between bear and bull cases. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Franco-Nevada Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates FNV will report consensus revenue of $2.4B (+14.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.98 (-43.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $2.8B in revenue.
06When does Franco-Nevada Corporation (FNV) report its next earnings?
Franco-Nevada Corporation is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-11. Consensus expects EPS of $2.09 and revenue of $662M. Over recent quarters, FNV has beaten EPS estimates 83% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Franco-Nevada Corporation generate?
Franco-Nevada Corporation (FNV) generated $1.8B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 84.4%. FNV returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.7% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).