Upside case
Bull case
$242+93.5%
WPM would need investors to value it at roughly 45x earnings — about 22x more generous than today's 23x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (WPM) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
20
analysts
16 bullish · 0 bearish · 20 covering WPM
Strong Buy
0
Buy
16
Hold
4
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$153
+21.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$22 – $242
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
20
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
23.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $56.9B
WPM price targets
Three scenarios for where WPM stock could go
Current
~$125
Confidence
42 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $125
Bear
$22
Base
$171
Bull
$242
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$171+36.3%
At 31x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$22-82.1%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 19x multiple contraction could push WPM down roughly 82% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp.
WPM · NYSEBasic MaterialsGoldDecember year-end
Wheaton Precious Metals is a precious metals streaming company that provides upfront financing to mining companies in exchange for the right to purchase future production at fixed, low prices. It generates revenue primarily from gold (about 60%) and silver (about 35%) streams, with the remainder from palladium and cobalt. Its competitive advantage lies in its low-cost, diversified portfolio of streaming agreements—which provide exposure to metal price upside without the operational risks and capital expenditures of traditional mining.
Market Cap
$56.9B
Revenue TTM
$2.3B
Net Income TTM
$1.5B
Net Margin
63.6%
WPM Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+6.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.55/$0.52
Revenue
$470M/$428M
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.63/$0.58
Revenue
$503M/$475M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.62/$0.59
Revenue
$476M/$721M
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.22/$1.08
Revenue
$865M/$779M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.55/$0.52 | +6.6% | $470M/$428M | +9.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.63/$0.58 | +8.2% | $503M/$475M | +6.0% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.62/$0.59 | +5.8% | $476M/$721M | -33.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.22/$1.08 | +13.0% | $865M/$779M | +11.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$3.3B
+42.4% YoY
FY2
$3.9B
+16.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.94
+21.2% YoY
FY2
$4.48
+13.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$565M
FCF Margin: 24.3%
Next Earnings
May 7, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.24
Expected Revenue
$874M
WPM beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
WPM Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $2.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
BRAZIL
44.9%
+92.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
BRAZIL is the largest reported region at 44.9%, up 92.7% YoY.
WPM Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Overvalued
Fair value est. $89 — implies -29.6% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
29.6%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
WPM
38.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+52% premium
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
WPM
38.1x
vs
Basic Materials
22.3x
+71% premium
vs WPM 5Y Avg P/E
Today
38.1x
vs
5Y Average
35.7x
+7% premium
Forward PE
23.1x
S&P 500
19.1x
+21%
Basic Materials
15.2x
+51%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
38.1x
S&P 500
25.1x
+52%
Basic Materials
22.3x
+71%
5Y Avg
35.7x
+7%
PEG Ratio
1.69x
S&P 500
1.72x
-2%
Basic Materials
1.17x
+44%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
28.9x
S&P 500
15.2x
+90%
Basic Materials
11.0x
+163%
5Y Avg
25.5x
+13%
Price/FCF
99.1x
S&P 500
21.1x
+370%
Basic Materials
25.6x
+287%
5Y Avg
63.2x
+57%
Price/Sales
24.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
+672%
Basic Materials
1.9x
+1176%
5Y Avg
19.5x
+24%
Dividend Yield
0.53%
S&P 500
1.87%
-72%
Basic Materials
1.32%
-60%
5Y Avg
1.06%
-50%
| Metric | WPM | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg WPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 23.1x | 19.1x+21% | 15.2x+51% | — |
| Trailing PE | 38.1x | 25.1x+52% | 22.3x+71% | 35.7x |
| PEG Ratio | 1.69x | 1.72x | 1.17x+44% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 28.9x | 15.2x+90% | 11.0x+163% | 25.5x+13% |
| Price/FCF | 99.1x | 21.1x+370% | 25.6x+287% | 63.2x+57% |
| Price/Sales | 24.1x | 3.1x+672% | 1.9x+1176% | 19.5x+24% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.53% | 1.87% | 1.32% | 1.06% |
WPM trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolWPM Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
WPM generates $565M in free cash flow at a 24.3% margin — 17.4% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$2.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+81.2%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
75.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
68.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
63.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.25
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$565M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
24.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
17.4%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
17.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.2B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$1.1B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
18.5%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.5%
Dividend
0.5%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.66
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
20.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
454M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageWPM Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Production Disruptions
Delays or disruptions in stream production across Wheaton Precious Metals’ portfolio can reduce expected deliveries and force renegotiation of favorable terms, directly impacting royalty cash flows.
High Risk
Mining Partner Dependence
WPM’s performance is tightly linked to the operational success of its mining partners; any operational issues or mine shutdowns at partner sites immediately reduce WPM’s royalty income.
High Risk
Commodity Price Volatility
The company’s cash flows are tied to gold and silver prices; a prolonged decline in these metals would lower royalty income, potentially eroding profitability.
Medium
Geographic Concentration Risk
WPM’s operations in specific countries, notably Brazil, expose it to country‑specific political, regulatory, and operational risks that could amplify production challenges.
Medium
Foreign Exchange Exposure
Significant exposure to currency fluctuations can affect the company’s financial performance, as royalty payments and costs are denominated in multiple currencies.
Medium
Streaming Deal Competition
Increasing competition for streaming agreements may limit WPM’s ability to secure new deals or expand margins, potentially slowing growth.
Medium
High Valuation Risk
WPM trades at a high P/E ratio above the market average and its own historical averages, suggesting limited upside and heightened sensitivity to valuation corrections.
Medium
Regulatory & Tax Uncertainty
Uncertainties around tax and mining regulations in operating jurisdictions, including the impact of a global minimum tax, could alter financial projections and increase compliance costs.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why WPM Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Record Operating Cash Flow
Wheaton Precious Metals has reported record operating cash flow, underscoring robust financial health. This strong cash generation enables the company to reinvest in growth or distribute to shareholders.
Dividend Increases
The company raised its quarterly dividend by 18%, signaling confidence in future earnings and a commitment to shareholder returns.
Earnings Performance
In Q4 2025, WPM posted EPS of $1.22, beating analyst expectations of $1.03 by 18.64%. Analysts project the next earnings report on May 7, 2026, to deliver EPS of $1.34.
Production Growth
WPM is positioned for robust growth, with an anticipated production increase of approximately 40% over the next five years, driven by its extensive portfolio of long‑term streaming agreements.
Operational Scalability and Margins
The company’s operations are scalable and benefit from superior cash operating margins compared to traditional mining firms, enabling strong cash flow generation and financial stability across commodity cycles.
Financial Strength
WPM holds $1 billion in cash and a $2 billion undrawn credit facility, providing flexibility to pursue accretive streaming deals and capitalize on industry trends.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
WPM Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$125.24
52W Range Position
55%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$75.42
+66.1% from the low
52-Week High
$165.76
-24.4% from the high
1 Month
-6.60%
3 Month
-4.32%
YTD
+6.3%
1 Year
+50.2%
3Y CAGR
+34.0%
5Y CAGR
+24.2%
10Y CAGR
+20.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
WPM vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
23.1x
vs 17.7x median
+31% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+42.4%
vs +37.5% median
+13% above peer median
Net Margin
63.6%
vs 45.3% median
+40% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WPM WPM Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. | $56.9B | 23.1x | +42.4% | 63.6% | Buy | +21.8% |
RGL RGLD Royal Gold, Inc. | $19.1B | 19.0x | +41.2% | 45.3% | Buy | +34.9% |
FNV FNV Franco-Nevada Corporation | $43.4B | 26.0x | +37.5% | 61.1% | Hold | +22.3% |
OR OR OR Royalties Inc. | $6.8B | 17.7x | +58.0% | 74.1% | Buy | +23.3% |
NEM NEM Newmont Corporation | $120.8B | 10.5x | +35.1% | 30.5% | Buy | +26.1% |
AEM AEM Agnico Eagle Mines Limited | $89.2B | 12.8x | +31.7% | 37.5% | Buy | +33.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
WPM Dividend and Capital Return
WPM returns 0.5% total yield, led by a 0.53% dividend, raised 6 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
0.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
0.53%
Payout Ratio
20.1%
How WPM Splits Its Return
Div 0.53%
Dividend 0.53%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.66
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
6Y
3Y Div CAGR
3.2%
5Y Div CAGR
9.5%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
454M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.20 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.66 | +6.5% | 0.0% | 0.6% |
| 2024 | $0.62 | +3.3% | 0.0% | 1.1% |
| 2023 | $0.60 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.2% |
| 2022 | $0.60 | +5.3% | 0.0% | 1.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsWPM Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (WPM) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (WPM) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 20 analysts covering the stock, 16 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 4 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $153, implying +21.8% from the current price of $125. The bear case scenario is $22 and the bull case is $242.
02What is the WPM stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for WPM is $153 based on 20 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $175 (+39.7% from today), and the low-end target is $130 (+3.8%). The base case model target is $171.
03Is Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (WPM) stock overvalued in 2026?
WPM trades at 23.1x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (WPM) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for WPM in 2026 are: (1) Production Disruptions — Delays or disruptions in stream production across Wheaton Precious Metals’ portfolio can reduce expected deliveries and force renegotiation of favorable terms, directly impacting royalty cash flows. (2) Mining Partner Dependence — WPM’s performance is tightly linked to the operational success of its mining partners; any operational issues or mine shutdowns at partner sites immediately reduce WPM’s royalty income. (3) Commodity Price Volatility — The company’s cash flows are tied to gold and silver prices; a prolonged decline in these metals would lower royalty income, potentially eroding profitability. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Wheaton Precious Metals Corp.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates WPM will report consensus revenue of $3.3B (+42.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.94 (+21.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $3.9B in revenue.
06When does Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (WPM) report its next earnings?
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-07. Consensus expects EPS of $1.24 and revenue of $874M. Over recent quarters, WPM has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. generate?
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (WPM) generated $565M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 24.3%. WPM returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.5% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).