Upside case
Bull case
$1113+607.6%
FUTU would need investors to value it at roughly 12x earnings — about 10x more generous than today's 2x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Futu Holdings Limited (FUTU) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
12
analysts
8 bullish · 1 bearish · 12 covering FUTU
Strong Buy
0
Buy
8
Hold
3
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$225
+42.9% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $1113
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
12
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
1.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $55.9B
FUTU price targets
Three scenarios for where FUTU stock could go
Current
~$157
Confidence
37 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $157
Base
$1417
Bull
$1113
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$1417+800.7%
At 15x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Futu Holdings Limited
FUTU · NASDAQFinancial ServicesFinancial - Capital MarketsDecember year-end
Futu Holdings is a digital brokerage and wealth management platform serving investors primarily in Hong Kong and internationally. It makes money through securities trading commissions, margin financing interest, and fund distribution fees — with its core Futubull and Moomoo platforms generating revenue from both retail and institutional clients. The company's key advantage is its integrated digital ecosystem combining trading, market data, and community features that create strong user engagement and switching costs.
Market Cap
$55.9B
Net Income TTM
$7.9B
FUTU Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+5.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$1.96/$1.79
Revenue
$604M/$499M
Q3 2025
EPS
$2.32/$2.13
Revenue
$677M/$600M
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.93/$3.06
Revenue
$823M/$789M
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.07/$2.88
Revenue
$827M/$803M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $1.96/$1.79 | +9.5% | $604M/$499M | +21.0% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.32/$2.13 | +8.9% | $677M/$600M | +12.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.93/$3.06 | -4.2% | $823M/$789M | +4.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.07/$2.88 | +6.6% | $827M/$803M | +3.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$19.6B
+44.3% YoY
FY2
$23.1B
+17.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$41.96
-25.3% YoY
FY2
$44.69
+6.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$0
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
FUTU beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
FUTU Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $6.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Brokerage Commission Income
79.5%
+50.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
HONG KONG
78.1%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Brokerage Commission Income is the largest disclosed segment at 79.5% of FY 2024 revenue, up 50.3% YoY.
HONG KONG is the largest reported region at 78.1%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
FUTU Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $545 — implies +251.7% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
251.7%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
FUTU
31.7x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+26% premium
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
FUTU
31.7x
vs
Financial Services
13.3x
+138% premium
vs FUTU 5Y Avg P/E
Today
31.7x
vs
5Y Average
2.5x
+1145% premium
Forward PE
1.7x
S&P 500
19.1x
-91%
Financial Services
10.4x
-84%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
31.7x
S&P 500
25.1x
+26%
Financial Services
13.3x
+138%
5Y Avg
2.5x
+1145%
PEG Ratio
0.32x
S&P 500
1.72x
-81%
Financial Services
1.01x
-68%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
64.0x
S&P 500
15.2x
+321%
Financial Services
11.4x
+461%
5Y Avg
5.0x
+1181%
Price/FCF
14.2x
S&P 500
21.1x
-33%
Financial Services
10.6x
+35%
5Y Avg
0.9x
+1526%
Price/Sales
32.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
+932%
Financial Services
2.2x
+1349%
5Y Avg
1.0x
+3063%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.87%
—
Financial Services
2.70%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | FUTU | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg FUTU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 1.7x | 19.1x-91% | 10.4x-84% | — |
| Trailing PE | 31.7x | 25.1x+26% | 13.3x+138% | 2.5x+1145% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.32x | 1.72x-81% | 1.01x-68% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 64.0x | 15.2x+321% | 11.4x+461% | 5.0x+1181% |
| Price/FCF | 14.2x | 21.1x-33% | 10.6x+35% | 0.9x+1526% |
| Price/Sales | 32.3x | 3.1x+932% | 2.2x+1349% | 1.0x+3063% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.87% | 2.70% | — |
FUTU trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolFUTU Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
FUTU generates 26.4% ROE and 4.6% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$56.20
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
26.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
14.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
4.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$11.7B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$3.1B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
26.4%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
356M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageFUTU Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Regulatory Compliance in China
Futu’s cross‑border trading services were deemed illegal by the CSRC due to missing brokerage licenses, leading to orders to halt new client acquisition in China and class‑action lawsuits alleging misleading disclosures. Non‑compliance could trigger penalties, license suspensions, and operational restrictions, severely impacting revenue.
High Risk
Trading Volume Volatility
Futu’s revenue is tightly linked to client trading activity; sudden drops in trading volume directly reduce transaction‑based income. Market downturns or shifts in retail investor sentiment can amplify these fluctuations, putting pressure on profitability.
Medium
Technology Infrastructure Risk
Futu’s platforms, Futubull and Moomoo, are core to its service delivery; outages or failures in proprietary automated systems could disrupt trading, erode client trust, and lead to revenue loss.
Medium
Competitive Pressure
The online brokerage and wealth‑management space is highly contested; failure to maintain a competitive edge could result in loss of market share and lower commission income.
Medium
U.S. Delisting Risk
If the PCAOB cannot fully audit or investigate Futu’s Chinese auditors, its American Depositary Shares could be delisted from U.S. exchanges, reducing liquidity and access to capital markets.
Lower
Valuation Concerns
Analysts note that Futu’s current valuation metrics may be overvalued relative to peers, potentially leading to a market correction that could depress the stock price.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why FUTU Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Robust Financial Growth
In Q3 2025, Futu reported revenue of HK$6.40 billion and net income of HK$3.23 billion, both materially higher than the prior year. The growth is driven by increased trading volumes, higher interest income from margin financing and securities lending, and expanding wealth‑management services.
User Acquisition & Engagement
Futu is expanding its global customer base and deepening engagement across key Asian and international markets. Its platforms, Futubull and Moomoo, are popular among retail investors, with a significant increase in funded accounts and client assets.
International Expansion
The company is actively expanding its presence in Singapore, the U.S., Malaysia, and Japan, differentiating itself through brand recognition and superior product experience.
Product Diversification
Futu has launched new products such as ETF‑based robo‑advisory services in partnership with BlackRock and cryptocurrency trading, aiming to strengthen customer retention and diversify revenue streams.
Profitability & Margins
Futu maintains high net profit margins that have been improving over time, indicating strong operational leverage and efficiency.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
FUTU Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$157.34
52W Range Position
56%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$99.20
+58.6% from the low
52-Week High
$202.53
-22.3% from the high
1 Month
+11.52%
3 Month
+4.92%
YTD
-11.8%
1 Year
+55.5%
3Y CAGR
+54.8%
5Y CAGR
+1.8%
10Y CAGR
+26.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
FUTU vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
1.7x
vs 15.3x median
-89% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+44.3%
vs +18.5% median
+139% above peer median
Net Margin
—
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FUT FUTU Futu Holdings Limited | $55.9B | 1.7x | +44.3% | — | Buy | +42.9% |
TIG TIGR UP Fintech Holding Ltd. Sponsored ADR Class A | $650M | 7.0x | +46.4% | — | Sell | -29.0% |
IBK IBKR Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. | $37.4B | 33.7x | +2.9% | — | Buy | +4.5% |
HOO HOOD Robinhood Markets, Inc. | $69.4B | 40.9x | +18.5% | — | Buy | +52.1% |
PFS PFSI PennyMac Financial Services, Inc. | $4.6B | 7.1x | +36.1% | — | Buy | +63.5% |
SCH SCHW The Charles Schwab Corporation | $164.2B | 15.3x | +2.3% | — | Buy | +28.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FUTU Dividend and Capital Return
FUTU does not currently return meaningful capital to shareholders.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.60
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Annual
1 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
356M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.60 | — | — | — |
| 2024 | $1.95 | — | 0.0% | 0.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsFUTU Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Futu Holdings Limited (FUTU) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Futu Holdings Limited (FUTU) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 12 analysts covering the stock, 8 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 3 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $225, implying +42.9% from the current price of $157.
02What is the FUTU stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for FUTU is $225 based on 12 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $236 (+50.0% from today), and the low-end target is $213 (+35.6%). The base case model target is $1417.
03Is Futu Holdings Limited (FUTU) stock overvalued in 2026?
FUTU trades at 1.7x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Futu Holdings Limited (FUTU) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for FUTU in 2026 are: (1) Regulatory Compliance in China — Futu’s cross‑border trading services were deemed illegal by the CSRC due to missing brokerage licenses, leading to orders to halt new client acquisition in China and class‑action lawsuits alleging misleading disclosures. (2) Trading Volume Volatility — Futu’s revenue is tightly linked to client trading activity; sudden drops in trading volume directly reduce transaction‑based income. (3) Technology Infrastructure Risk — Futu’s platforms, Futubull and Moomoo, are core to its service delivery; outages or failures in proprietary automated systems could disrupt trading, erode client trust, and lead to revenue loss. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Futu Holdings Limited's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates FUTU will report consensus revenue of $19.6B (+44.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $41.96 (-25.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $23.1B in revenue.
06When does Futu Holdings Limited (FUTU) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for FUTU is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Futu Holdings Limited generate?
Futu Holdings Limited (FUTU) generated $0 in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. FUTU returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).