Upside case
Bull case
$13-63.8%
The bull case prices GFL at 14x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
18
analysts
14 bullish · 1 bearish · 18 covering GFL
Strong Buy
0
Buy
14
Hold
3
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$57
+53.2% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $13
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
18
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
39.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $12.8B
GFL price targets
Three scenarios for where GFL stock could go
Current
~$37
Confidence
49 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $37
Base
$13
Bull
$13
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$13-64.1%
At 14x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
GFL Environmental Inc.
GFL · NYSEIndustrialsWaste ManagementDecember year-end
GFL Environmental is a diversified environmental services company providing non-hazardous solid waste management, infrastructure remediation, and liquid waste management across North America. It generates revenue primarily from solid waste collection and disposal services — representing the majority of its business — supplemented by soil remediation and liquid waste management operations. The company's competitive advantage lies in its integrated service platform and geographic density, which creates operational efficiencies and customer stickiness through comprehensive environmental solutions.
Market Cap
$12.8B
Revenue TTM
$6.7B
Net Income TTM
$209M
Net Margin
3.1%
GFL Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-58.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.19/$0.19
Revenue
$1.2B/$1.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.17/$0.19
Revenue
$1.2B/$1.7B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.26/$0.14
Revenue
$1.2B/$1.2B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.06/$0.05
Revenue
$1.2B/$1.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.19/$0.19 | +0.0% | $1.2B/$1.7B | -27.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.17/$0.19 | -10.5% | $1.2B/$1.7B | -27.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.26/$0.14 | +85.7% | $1.2B/$1.2B | +1.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.06/$0.05 | +20.0% | $1.2B/$1.2B | +1.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$7.1B
+6.5% YoY
FY2
$7.6B
+5.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.62
+177.7% YoY
FY2
$2.63
+62.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$87M
FCF Margin: 1.3%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
GFL beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
GFL Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $7.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Collection
64.5%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
United States Subsegment
67.3%
-5.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Collection is the largest disclosed segment at 64.5% of FY 2025 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
United States Subsegment is the largest reported region at 67.3%, down 5.8% YoY.
GFL Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $954 — implies +2377.3% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
2377.3%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
GFL
5.0x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
80% discount
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
GFL
5.0x
vs
Industrials
25.7x
80% discount
vs GFL 5Y Avg P/E
Today
5.0x
vs
5Y Average
4.3x
+17% premium
Forward PE
39.7x
S&P 500
19.1x
+108%
Industrials
20.7x
+92%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
5.0x
S&P 500
25.1x
-80%
Industrials
25.7x
-80%
5Y Avg
4.3x
+17%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Industrials
1.64x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
15.2x
S&P 500
15.2x
-0%
Industrials
13.7x
+11%
5Y Avg
14.6x
+4%
Price/FCF
99.6x
S&P 500
21.1x
+372%
Industrials
21.2x
+371%
5Y Avg
57.6x
+73%
Price/Sales
2.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
-16%
Industrials
1.6x
+66%
5Y Avg
2.2x
+18%
Dividend Yield
0.16%
S&P 500
1.87%
-91%
Industrials
1.27%
-87%
5Y Avg
0.18%
-7%
| Metric | GFL | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg GFL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 39.7x | 19.1x+108% | 20.7x+92% | — |
| Trailing PE | 5.0x | 25.1x-80% | 25.7x-80% | 4.3x+17% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 1.64x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.2x | 15.2x | 13.7x+11% | 14.6x |
| Price/FCF | 99.6x | 21.1x+372% | 21.2x+371% | 57.6x+73% |
| Price/Sales | 2.6x | 3.1x-16% | 1.6x+66% | 2.2x+18% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.16% | 1.87% | 1.27% | 0.18% |
GFL trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolGFL Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
GFL returns 17.2% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$6.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+0.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
20.6%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
5.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
3.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$0.58
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$87M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
1.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
1.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
1.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$86M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$7.8B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
89.8× FCF
~89.8 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
2.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
17.2%
Dividend
0.2%
Buyback
17.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$3.0B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.08
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
0.8%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
346M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageGFL Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
High Debt Load
GFL has a significant debt of $10.55 billion, with a total debt to Adj. EBITDA ratio of 4.7x. The repayment schedule for a large portion of this debt is set for 2028, with plans to repay $3.8 billion after a transaction, which may enhance financial stability.
High Risk
Regulatory and Environmental Risks
Operating in a highly regulated industry, GFL faces risks from non-compliance with environmental laws, which could result in fines and reputational harm. Environmental incidents such as accidents or spills also pose significant risks to the company's operations.
Medium
Market Dependence and Economic Conditions
GFL's performance is closely linked to economic conditions and waste generation patterns, which can fluctuate significantly. A shift towards Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) could decrease the volume of waste entering the solid waste stream, adversely affecting demand for GFL's services.
Medium
Trade Wars and Global Developments
GFL operates in both the U.S. and Canada, making it vulnerable to trade disputes and tariffs that could impact its financial results. Global trade tensions may create additional challenges for the company's operations.
Medium
Competition
The waste management industry is characterized by intense competition, which can exert pressure on pricing and profit margins. GFL must navigate this competitive landscape to maintain its market position.
Lower
Supply Chain and Operational Risks
GFL's reliance on equipment and fuel suppliers exposes it to potential supply chain disruptions. Labor shortages, transportation constraints, and inflationary pressures could also impact operational efficiency.
Lower
Climate Change Regulations
Emerging regulations related to climate change may lead to increased operating costs for GFL. Compliance with these regulations could require significant investments.
Lower
Accounting and Financial Reporting Concerns
There are concerns regarding GFL's business model transparency, financial control issues, and aggressive accounting practices. These factors could potentially misrepresent the company's free cash flow and leverage.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why GFL Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strong Solid Waste Business
GFL's solid waste management operations generate the majority of its revenue and are expected to continue their strong performance. The company's business model is considered durable, as waste removal is a consistent need regardless of economic conditions.
Margin Expansion and Efficiency
Analysts anticipate continued margin expansion for GFL. TD Cowen identified approximately C$400 million in potential EBITDA improvements through self-help measures, representing a significant opportunity for GFL to increase its profit margins.
Strategic Divestitures and Deleveraging
GFL's $8 billion divestiture of its Environmental Services business is seen as a strategic move that has allowed the company to deleverage, reduce debt, and fund significant share buybacks. This pivot has transformed GFL into a more focused, 'pure-play' solid waste company.
Valuation and Re-rating Potential
GFL is currently trading at a discount compared to its peers and its historical average. Analysts believe the market has not fully recognized the value of GFL's transformed business, leading to an 'unwarranted discount valuation'.
Catalysts for Growth
Several catalysts are identified, including achieving investment-grade credit ratings and potential inclusion in major stock indices like the S&P 500. The company's accelerated merger and acquisition activity is also expected to drive revenue growth.
Positive Analyst Sentiment
A significant majority of analysts recommend a 'Buy' or 'Strong Buy' for GFL stock. Price targets from analysts generally indicate substantial upside potential, with average targets around $53.69 to $55.44, representing an increase of approximately 35-38% from recent prices.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
GFL Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$36.99
52W Range Position
2%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$36.67
+0.9% from the low
52-Week High
$51.70
-28.5% from the high
1 Month
-17.58%
3 Month
-12.41%
YTD
-13.7%
1 Year
-28.3%
3Y CAGR
+1.3%
5Y CAGR
+2.3%
10Y CAGR
+8.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
GFL vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
39.7x
vs 28.7x median
+39% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+6.5%
vs +5.8% median
+11% above peer median
Net Margin
3.1%
vs 11.0% median
-72% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GFL GFL GFL Environmental Inc. | $12.8B | 39.7x | +6.5% | 3.1% | Buy | +53.2% |
WM WM Waste Management, Inc. | $90.5B | 27.4x | +7.3% | 11.0% | Buy | +12.6% |
RSG RSG Republic Services, Inc. | $63.1B | 28.2x | +4.6% | 12.9% | Buy | +17.6% |
WCN WCN Waste Connections, Inc. | $40.2B | 28.7x | +5.8% | 11.0% | Buy | +29.4% |
CWS CWST Casella Waste Systems, Inc. | $5.4B | 64.9x | +16.9% | 0.4% | Buy | +37.2% |
CLH CLH Clean Harbors, Inc. | $16.8B | 37.2x | +5.4% | 6.5% | Buy | -4.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
GFL Dividend and Capital Return
GFL returns capital mainly through $3.0B/year in buybacks (17.1% buyback yield), with a modest 0.16% dividend — combining for 17.2% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 6 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
17.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
17.1%
Dividend Yield
0.16%
Payout Ratio
0.8%
How GFL Splits Its Return
Buyback 17.1%
Dividend 0.16%Buybacks 17.1%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.08
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
6Y
3Y Div CAGR
-23.8%
5Y Div CAGR
17.2%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$3.0B
Estimated Shares Retired
80M
Approx. Share Reduction
23.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
346M
At 23.2%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.05 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.06 | +9.5% | 18.2% | 18.4% |
| 2024 | $0.06 | +7.8% | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| 2023 | $0.05 | -62.5% | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| 2022 | $0.14 | +216.3% | 0.0% | 0.2% |
FAQ
7 questionsGFL Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 18 analysts covering the stock, 14 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 3 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $57, implying +53.2% from the current price of $37.
02What is the GFL stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for GFL is $57 based on 18 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $63 (+70.3% from today), and the low-end target is $50 (+35.2%). The base case model target is $13.
03Is GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL) stock overvalued in 2026?
GFL trades at 39.7x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for GFL in 2026 are: (1) High Debt Load — GFL has a significant debt of $10. (2) Regulatory and Environmental Risks — Operating in a highly regulated industry, GFL faces risks from non-compliance with environmental laws, which could result in fines and reputational harm. (3) Market Dependence and Economic Conditions — GFL's performance is closely linked to economic conditions and waste generation patterns, which can fluctuate significantly. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is GFL Environmental Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates GFL will report consensus revenue of $7.1B (+6.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.62 (+177.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $7.6B in revenue.
06When does GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for GFL is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does GFL Environmental Inc. generate?
GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL) generated $87M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 1.3%. GFL returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.2% yield) and share repurchases ($3.0B TTM).