Upside case
Bull case
$240+223.9%
GFS would need investors to value it at roughly 130x earnings — about 90x more generous than today's 40x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc. (GFS) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
19
analysts
9 bullish · 1 bearish · 19 covering GFS
Strong Buy
0
Buy
9
Hold
9
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$51
-30.9% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $240
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
19
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
40.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $41.2B
GFS price targets
Three scenarios for where GFS stock could go
Current
~$74
Confidence
45 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $74
Base
$86
Bull
$240
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$86+16.2%
At 47x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.
GFS · NASDAQTechnologySemiconductorsDecember year-end
GLOBALFOUNDRIES is a semiconductor foundry that manufactures integrated circuits for other companies rather than designing its own chips. It generates revenue primarily from wafer fabrication services — including specialty technologies for automotive, IoT, and communications applications — with contract manufacturing fees from customers like AMD, Qualcomm, and Broadcom. Its competitive advantage lies in being one of the few pure-play foundries with advanced specialty process technologies, particularly in RF, analog, and power semiconductors where it avoids direct competition with TSMC and Samsung in leading-edge nodes.
Market Cap
$41.2B
Revenue TTM
$6.8B
Net Income TTM
$885M
Net Margin
13.0%
GFS Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+15.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.42/$0.36
Revenue
$1.7B/$1.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.41/$0.38
Revenue
$1.7B/$1.7B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.55/$0.47
Revenue
$1.8B/$1.8B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.40/$0.35
Revenue
$1.6B/$1.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.42/$0.36 | +16.3% | $1.7B/$1.7B | +0.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.41/$0.38 | +7.0% | $1.7B/$1.7B | +0.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.55/$0.47 | +15.9% | $1.8B/$1.8B | +1.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.40/$0.35 | +13.9% | $1.6B/$1.6B | +0.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$7.0B
+2.9% YoY
FY2
$7.2B
+3.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.68
+6.8% YoY
FY2
$1.85
+9.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.0B
FCF Margin: 14.9%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
GFS beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
GFS Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $769M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Engineering And Other Pre-Fabrication Services
100.0%
+17.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
50.0%
-8.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Engineering And Other Pre-Fabrication Services is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 17.9% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 50.0%, down 8.6% YoY.
GFS Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Undervalued
Fair value est. $74 — implies +14.3% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
14.3%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
GFS
46.6x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+85% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
GFS
46.6x
vs
Technology
26.7x
+74% premium
vs GFS 5Y Avg P/E
Today
46.6x
vs
5Y Average
25.2x
+85% premium
Forward PE
40.2x
S&P 500
19.1x
+111%
Technology
22.1x
+82%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
46.6x
S&P 500
25.1x
+85%
Technology
26.7x
+74%
5Y Avg
25.2x
+85%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Technology
1.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
19.4x
S&P 500
15.2x
+28%
Technology
17.5x
+11%
5Y Avg
14.3x
+36%
Price/FCF
40.8x
S&P 500
21.1x
+94%
Technology
19.5x
+109%
5Y Avg
44.1x
-7%
Price/Sales
6.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
+94%
Technology
2.4x
+148%
5Y Avg
3.9x
+55%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.87%
—
Technology
1.16%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | GFS | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg GFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 40.2x | 19.1x+111% | 22.1x+82% | — |
| Trailing PE | 46.6x | 25.1x+85% | 26.7x+74% | 25.2x+85% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 1.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.4x | 15.2x+28% | 17.5x+11% | 14.3x+36% |
| Price/FCF | 40.8x | 21.1x+94% | 19.5x+109% | 44.1x |
| Price/Sales | 6.1x | 3.1x+94% | 2.4x+148% | 3.9x+55% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.87% | 1.16% | — |
GFS trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolGFS Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
GFS generates $1.0B in free cash flow at a 14.9% margin.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$6.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+0.6%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
25.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
11.7%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
13.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.58
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.0B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
14.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
5.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
5.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.8B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$171M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
7.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
556M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageGFS Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Material Weaknesses in Internal Control
Management identified material weaknesses in internal control over financial reporting, concluding ICFR was not effective as of December 31 2025. This increases the risk of future financial reporting errors until remediation is completed.
High Risk
Substantial Capital Needs
GlobalFoundries plans to invest over $16 billion in its Fab 8 and Fab 9 facilities over the next decade, requiring significant capital outlays that could strain cash flows and impact profitability.
High Risk
Reliance on Major Customers
The company relies on a small number of major customers, creating concentration risk. Loss or downgrade of any key customer could materially affect revenue and earnings.
High Risk
Government Incentives & Restrictions
GlobalFoundries utilizes CHIPS Act funding, which comes with milestones and restrictive covenants. Failure to meet these could trigger funding delays, clawbacks, or strategic constraints.
High Risk
Sovereign & Geopolitical Risk
The firm is disproportionately vulnerable to sovereign and geopolitical risks, historically experiencing larger drawdowns during such events compared to broader market indices.
Medium
Inventory Levels
Inventory levels have grown substantially, and while fab utilization rates are improving, this has not yet fully translated into reduced inventory, potentially tying up working capital.
Medium
Tariff Risks
Trade policy uncertainties and tariffs could affect consumer and industrial demand, particularly in smart mobile devices and IoT segments in the second half of 2025 and beyond.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why GFS Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Robust Revenue Expansion
GlobalFoundries reported Q4 revenue of $1.83 billion and a full‑year 2025 revenue of $6.791 billion. The company posted an 8.4% quarter‑over‑quarter increase, driven by higher wafer shipments and a significant surge in automotive‑related revenues.
Consistent Earnings Surprises
In Q4 2025, GFS earned $0.55 per share versus analysts’ $0.44 estimate, a 25% beat. The first‑half 2025 basic EPS rose to $0.79 from $0.52 in the first half of 2024, underscoring a clear earnings upward trajectory.
Silicon Photonics Upside
The firm is on track to nearly double its Silicon Photonics revenues by 2026, and it has revised its 2028 revenue target for the segment to $1 billion, signaling strong future growth in this high‑margin area.
Custom Silicon Demand Surge
The electronics industry’s shift toward custom silicon for hardware acceleration and security is creating a growing need for contract manufacturers, positioning GlobalFoundries to capture this expanding market.
Strategic Growth Market Focus
GFS is targeting AI data centers, industrial robotics, and optical networking, and the acquisition of MIPS enhances its edge‑AI and custom silicon capabilities, placing it in high‑growth sectors.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
GFS Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$74.04
52W Range Position
99%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$31.51
+135.0% from the low
52-Week High
$74.36
-0.4% from the high
1 Month
+69.78%
3 Month
+80.72%
YTD
+100.8%
1 Year
+106.4%
3Y CAGR
+7.6%
5Y CAGR
+9.8%
10Y CAGR
+4.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
GFS vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
40.2x
vs 35.1x median
+15% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+2.9%
vs +3.9% median
-24% below peer median
Net Margin
13.0%
vs 9.5% median
+38% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GFS GFS GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc. | $41.2B | 40.2x | +2.9% | 13.0% | Buy | -30.9% |
UMC UMC United Microelectronics Corporation | $34.9B | 20.5x | -13.8% | 20.8% | Hold | -38.6% |
IMO IMOS ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES Inc. | $1.9B | 0.7x | +5.9% | 1.1% | Hold | — |
INT INTC Intel Corporation | $543.2B | 103.7x | +3.9% | -5.9% | Hold | -28.7% |
TXN TXN Texas Instruments Incorporated | $255.7B | 37.2x | +10.5% | 29.1% | Buy | -9.7% |
ON ON ON Semiconductor Corporation | $40.4B | 35.1x | -1.1% | 9.5% | Buy | -39.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsGFS Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc. (GFS) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc. (GFS) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 19 analysts covering the stock, 9 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 9 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $51, implying -30.9% from the current price of $74.
02What is the GFS stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for GFS is $51 based on 19 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $60 (-19.0% from today), and the low-end target is $46 (-37.9%). The base case model target is $86.
03Is GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc. (GFS) stock overvalued in 2026?
GFS trades at 40.2x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc. (GFS) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for GFS in 2026 are: (1) Material Weaknesses in Internal Control — Management identified material weaknesses in internal control over financial reporting, concluding ICFR was not effective as of December 31 2025. (2) Substantial Capital Needs — GlobalFoundries plans to invest over $16 billion in its Fab 8 and Fab 9 facilities over the next decade, requiring significant capital outlays that could strain cash flows and impact profitability. (3) Reliance on Major Customers — The company relies on a small number of major customers, creating concentration risk. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates GFS will report consensus revenue of $7.0B (+2.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.68 (+6.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $7.2B in revenue.
06When does GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc. (GFS) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for GFS is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc. generate?
GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc. (GFS) generated $1.0B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 14.9%. GFS returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).