Upside case
Bull case
$1383+9772.2%
UMC would need investors to value it at roughly 2027x earnings — about 2007x more generous than today's 21x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
United Microelectronics Corporation (UMC) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
15
analysts
4 bullish · 3 bearish · 15 covering UMC
Strong Buy
0
Buy
4
Hold
8
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$9
-38.6% vs today
Scenario Range
$104 – $1383
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
15
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
20.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $34.9B
UMC price targets
Three scenarios for where UMC stock could go
Current
~$14
Confidence
37 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $14
Bear
$104
Base
$471
Bull
$1383
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$471+3262.2%
At 690x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$104+645.0%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push UMC down roughly 645% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
United Microelectronics Corporation
UMC · NYSETechnologySemiconductorsDecember year-end
United Microelectronics Corporation is a pure-play semiconductor wafer foundry that manufactures integrated circuits for other companies rather than designing its own chips. It generates revenue primarily from wafer fabrication services — accounting for the vast majority of sales — with additional income from mask tooling, design support, and testing services. Its competitive advantage lies in specialized manufacturing expertise in mature and specialty process technologies — particularly in areas like RFSOI, embedded memory, and high-voltage processes — where it maintains strong customer relationships and technical leadership.
Market Cap
$34.9B
Revenue TTM
$240.7B
Net Income TTM
$50.1B
Net Margin
20.8%
UMC Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
78%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+23.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.12/—
Revenue
$2.0B/—
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.20/$0.12
Revenue
$59.1B/$1.9B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.13/$0.12
Revenue
$2.0B/$1.9B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.20/$0.12
Revenue
$1.9B/$1.9B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.12/— | — | $2.0B/— | — |
| Q4 2025 | $0.20/$0.12 | +66.7% | $59.1B/$1.9B | +2967.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.13/$0.12 | +8.3% | $2.0B/$1.9B | +1.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.20/$0.12 | +66.7% | $1.9B/$1.9B | +0.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$207.5B
-13.8% YoY
FY2
$209.3B
+0.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$17.46
-13.0% YoY
FY2
$17.77
+1.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$50.1B
FCF Margin: 20.8%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
UMC beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
UMC Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $232.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Wafer
95.5%
+4.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
TAIWAN, PROVINCE OF CHINA
36.1%
+22.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Wafer is the largest disclosed segment at 95.5% of FY 2024 revenue, up 4.8% YoY.
TAIWAN, PROVINCE OF CHINA is the largest reported region at 36.1%, up 22.5% YoY.
UMC Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $1050 — implies +7943.1% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
7943.1%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
UMC
26.4x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+5% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
UMC
26.4x
vs
Technology
26.7x
In line with benchmark
vs UMC 5Y Avg P/E
Today
26.4x
vs
5Y Average
0.4x
+6926% premium
Forward PE
20.5x
S&P 500
19.1x
+8%
Technology
22.1x
-7%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
26.4x
S&P 500
25.1x
+5%
Technology
26.7x
-1%
5Y Avg
0.4x
+6926%
PEG Ratio
3.63x
S&P 500
1.72x
+111%
Technology
1.52x
+138%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
10.1x
S&P 500
15.2x
-33%
Technology
17.5x
-42%
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
21.0x
S&P 500
21.1x
-0%
Technology
19.5x
+8%
5Y Avg
1.1x
+1794%
Price/Sales
4.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
+48%
Technology
2.4x
+90%
5Y Avg
0.1x
+5101%
Dividend Yield
3.27%
S&P 500
1.87%
+75%
Technology
1.16%
+182%
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | UMC | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg UMC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 20.5x | 19.1x | 22.1x | — |
| Trailing PE | 26.4x | 25.1x | 26.7x | 0.4x+6926% |
| PEG Ratio | 3.63x | 1.72x+111% | 1.52x+138% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.1x | 15.2x-33% | 17.5x-42% | — |
| Price/FCF | 21.0x | 21.1x | 19.5x | 1.1x+1794% |
| Price/Sales | 4.6x | 3.1x+48% | 2.4x+90% | 0.1x+5101% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.27% | 1.87% | 1.16% | — |
UMC trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolUMC Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
UMC generates $50.1B in free cash flow at a 20.8% margin — returns 3.3% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$240.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+2.2%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
29.6%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
18.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
20.8%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$20.07
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$50.1B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
20.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
10.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
8.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$110.7B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$50.9B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
13.5%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.3%
Dividend
3.3%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$14.41
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
86.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
2.5B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageUMC Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Geopolitical Risks
UMC's operations are heavily concentrated in Taiwan, exposing the company to significant geopolitical risks. Global tensions and potential conflicts in the region could disrupt operations and adversely impact financial performance.
High Risk
Market Cyclicality and Competition
The semiconductor industry is cyclical, with demand and pricing pressures affecting profitability. UMC operates in more commoditized markets, making it vulnerable to slowdowns in demand for electronic devices, which could lead to lower margins.
High Risk
Cost Inflation
Rising costs for raw materials, energy, and logistics, driven by geopolitical tensions, are pressuring UMC's profit margins. The company plans to implement price adjustments in the second half of 2026 to mitigate these rising costs.
Medium
Supply Chain Vulnerabilities
UMC relies on a limited number of large suppliers, creating vulnerabilities in its supply chain. Disruptions in supply could impact production and delivery timelines, affecting overall operational efficiency.
Medium
Valuation Concerns
Analyses indicate that UMC's stock may be overvalued, trading at a premium compared to its historical valuation. This overvaluation poses a risk if the market corrects and aligns with the company's intrinsic value.
Medium
Dividend Sustainability
UMC offers an attractive dividend yield, but its high payout ratio raises concerns about sustainability. If earnings do not sufficiently cover dividend payments, the company may face pressure to reduce or eliminate dividends.
Lower
Technological Competition
By avoiding costly leading-edge competition, UMC solidifies its niche but limits growth potential. This strategic choice may hinder the company's ability to capture market share in more lucrative segments.
Lower
Cybersecurity Threats
The increasing risk of cyberattacks, including DDoS and ransomware, necessitates enhanced data security measures. Non-compliance with regulations like NIS2 could also expose UMC to legal and financial repercussions.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why UMC Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Surging Profitability
UMC reported a significant surge in net income for the first quarter of 2026, with profits more than doubling year-over-year. This strong bottom-line performance outpaced revenue growth, indicating improved operational efficiency.
Revenue Growth
The company has demonstrated year-over-year revenue increases, with Q1 2026 sales up 5.5% compared to the previous year. This growth is attributed to a rise in wafer shipments driven by robust consumer demand.
Increased Utilization Rates
UMC's foundry utilization rates have climbed to 79%, up from 69% a year earlier, signaling a healthy increase in demand for its manufacturing services.
Improved Margins
Gross margin has improved to 29.2% from 26.7% in the prior-year quarter, reflecting better operational leverage and a favorable product mix.
Strategic Investments in Technology
The company is making continued investments in technology, with its 22nm platform showing record revenue contributions. UMC is also leveraging its 22nm platform, advanced packaging, and silicon photonics to capture structural demand shifts.
Planned Price Hikes
UMC plans wafer price hikes in the second half of 2026, which could further boost margins.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
UMC Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$14.01
52W Range Position
97%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$6.56
+113.6% from the low
52-Week High
$14.21
-1.4% from the high
1 Month
+61.22%
3 Month
+40.52%
YTD
+78.7%
1 Year
+89.3%
3Y CAGR
+19.5%
5Y CAGR
+8.3%
10Y CAGR
+22.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
UMC vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
20.5x
vs 37.2x median
-45% below peer median
Revenue Growth
-13.8%
vs +5.9% median
-333% below peer median
Net Margin
20.8%
vs 13.0% median
+60% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UMC UMC United Microelectronics Corporation | $34.9B | 20.5x | -13.8% | 20.8% | Hold | -38.6% |
TSM TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited | $2.05T | 0.8x | +21.7% | 45.1% | Buy | +8.4% |
GFS GFS GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc. | $41.2B | 40.2x | +2.9% | 13.0% | Buy | -30.9% |
IMO IMOS ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES Inc. | $1.9B | 0.7x | +5.9% | 1.1% | Hold | — |
INT INTC Intel Corporation | $543.2B | 103.7x | +3.9% | -5.9% | Hold | -28.7% |
TXN TXN Texas Instruments Incorporated | $255.7B | 37.2x | +10.5% | 29.1% | Buy | -9.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
UMC Dividend and Capital Return
UMC returns 3.3% total yield, led by a 3.27% dividend.
Dividend At RiskFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
3.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
3.27%
Payout Ratio
86.2%
How UMC Splits Its Return
Div 3.27%
Dividend 3.27%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$14.41
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
-2.2%
5Y Div CAGR
28.8%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Annual
1 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
2.5B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $0.48 | +4.3% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 2024 | $0.46 | -20.9% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 2023 | $0.59 | +13.3% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 2022 | $0.52 | +81.4% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 2021 | $0.28 | +108.8% | 0.0% | 68.2% |
FAQ
7 questionsUMC Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is United Microelectronics Corporation (UMC) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
United Microelectronics Corporation (UMC) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 15 analysts covering the stock, 4 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 8 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $9, implying -38.6% from the current price of $14. The bear case scenario is $104 and the bull case is $1383.
02What is the UMC stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for UMC is $9 based on 15 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $9 (-38.6% from today), and the low-end target is $9 (-38.6%). The base case model target is $471.
03Is United Microelectronics Corporation (UMC) stock overvalued in 2026?
UMC trades at 20.5x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for United Microelectronics Corporation (UMC) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for UMC in 2026 are: (1) Geopolitical Risks — UMC's operations are heavily concentrated in Taiwan, exposing the company to significant geopolitical risks. (2) Market Cyclicality and Competition — The semiconductor industry is cyclical, with demand and pricing pressures affecting profitability. (3) Cost Inflation — Rising costs for raw materials, energy, and logistics, driven by geopolitical tensions, are pressuring UMC's profit margins. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is United Microelectronics Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates UMC will report consensus revenue of $207.5B (-13.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $17.46 (-13.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $209.3B in revenue.
06When does United Microelectronics Corporation (UMC) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for UMC is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does United Microelectronics Corporation generate?
United Microelectronics Corporation (UMC) generated $50.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 20.8%. UMC returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.3% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).