Upside case
Bull case
$1379+5625.2%
UMC would need investors to value it at roughly 59x earnings — about 58x more generous than today's 1x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
United Microelectronics Corporation (UMC) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
15
analysts
4 bullish · 3 bearish · 15 covering UMC
Strong Buy
0
Buy
4
Hold
8
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$10
-57.6% vs today
Scenario Range
$659 – $1379
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
15
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
1.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $60.1B
UMC price targets
Three scenarios for where UMC stock could go
Current
~$24
Confidence
51 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $24
Bear
$659
Base
$1046
Bull
$1379
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$1046+4245.2%
At 45x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$659+2637.5%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push UMC down roughly 2637% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
United Microelectronics Corporation
UMC · NYSETechnologySemiconductorsDecember year-end
United Microelectronics Corporation is a pure-play semiconductor wafer foundry that manufactures integrated circuits for other companies rather than designing its own chips. It generates revenue primarily from wafer fabrication services — accounting for the vast majority of sales — with additional income from mask tooling, design support, and testing services. Its competitive advantage lies in specialized manufacturing expertise in mature and specialty process technologies — particularly in areas like RFSOI, embedded memory, and high-voltage processes — where it maintains strong customer relationships and technical leadership.
Market Cap
$60.1B
Revenue TTM
$240.7B
Net Income TTM
$50.1B
Net Margin
20.8%
UMC Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
70%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
89%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+20.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.12/—
Revenue
$2.0B/—
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.20/$0.12
Revenue
$59.1B/$1.9B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.13/$0.12
Revenue
$2.0B/$1.9B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.20/$0.12
Revenue
$1.9B/$1.9B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.12/— | — | $2.0B/— | — |
| Q4 2025 | $0.20/$0.12 | +66.7% | $59.1B/$1.9B | +2967.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.13/$0.12 | +8.3% | $2.0B/$1.9B | +1.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.20/$0.12 | +66.7% | $1.9B/$1.9B | +0.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$255.7B
+6.2% YoY
FY2
$283.7B
+10.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$22.31
+11.2% YoY
FY2
$25.61
+14.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$50.1B
FCF Margin: 20.8%
Next Earnings
July 29, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.15
Expected Revenue
$2.1B
UMC beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
UMC Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $232.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Wafer
95.5%
+4.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
TAIWAN, PROVINCE OF CHINA
36.1%
+22.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Wafer is the largest disclosed segment at 95.5% of FY 2024 revenue, up 4.8% YoY.
TAIWAN, PROVINCE OF CHINA is the largest reported region at 36.1%, up 22.5% YoY.
UMC Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $740 — implies +2972.0% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
2972.0%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
UMC
45.5x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+86% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
UMC
45.5x
vs
Technology
29.0x
+57% premium
vs UMC 5Y Avg P/E
Today
45.5x
vs
5Y Average
0.4x
+12006% premium
Forward PE
1.0x
S&P 500
18.8x
-95%
Technology
22.3x
-95%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
45.5x
S&P 500
24.4x
+86%
Technology
29.0x
+57%
5Y Avg
0.4x
+12006%
PEG Ratio
6.25x
S&P 500
1.66x
+277%
Technology
1.51x
+315%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
17.8x
S&P 500
15.2x
+17%
Technology
16.6x
+7%
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
36.2x
S&P 500
20.7x
+75%
Technology
19.2x
+88%
5Y Avg
1.1x
+3163%
Price/Sales
8.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
+158%
Technology
2.4x
+227%
5Y Avg
0.1x
+8861%
Dividend Yield
1.90%
S&P 500
1.91%
-1%
Technology
1.11%
+71%
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | UMC | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg UMC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 1.0x | 18.8x-95% | 22.3x-95% | — |
| Trailing PE | 45.5x | 24.4x+86% | 29.0x+57% | 0.4x+12006% |
| PEG Ratio | 6.25x | 1.66x+277% | 1.51x+315% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.8x | 15.2x+17% | 16.6x | — |
| Price/FCF | 36.2x | 20.7x+75% | 19.2x+88% | 1.1x+3163% |
| Price/Sales | 8.0x | 3.1x+158% | 2.4x+227% | 0.1x+8861% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.90% | 1.91% | 1.11% | — |
UMC trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolUMC Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
UMC generates $50.1B in free cash flow at a 20.8% margin — returns 1.9% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$240.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+2.2%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
29.6%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
18.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
20.8%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$20.07
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$50.1B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
20.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
10.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
8.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$110.7B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$50.9B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
13.5%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.9%
Dividend
1.9%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$14.41
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
86.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
2.5B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageUMC Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Valuation concerns
BNP Paribas downgraded UMC due to its valuation already pricing in a bullish AI growth story, leaving limited upside potential.
High Risk
Weakening demand
UMC stocks have declined amid reports of weakening semiconductor demand, indicating potential revenue pressure.
Medium
Competitive positioning
UMC specializes in mature and specialty nodes, which may face challenges if industry shifts toward advanced nodes.
Lower
Market sentiment shift
While some positive catalysts exist, investor sentiment remains cautious due to broader industry risks.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why UMC Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Undervalued stock potential
UMC is considered undervalued, trading at $8.77 with potential for a 20-30% re-rating, as indicated by its trailing and forward P/E ratios of 16.37 and 14.35 respectively.
Stable semiconductor demand
UMC focuses on mature semiconductor nodes for industries like automotive and IoT, ensuring consistent and stable demand.
Capacity expansion in Singapore
The company is expanding its production capacity in Singapore, which is expected to support future growth.
Improved 14nm FinFET technology
UMC offers improved 14nm FinFET technology, enhancing its competitive position in the semiconductor market.
Consistent execution track record
UMC has demonstrated consistent execution, which bolsters investor confidence in its ability to deliver on its growth strategies.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
UMC Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$24.08
52W Range Position
100%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$6.56
+267.1% from the low
52-Week High
$24.16
-0.4% from the high
1 Month
+40.65%
3 Month
+158.92%
YTD
+207.1%
1 Year
+191.2%
3Y CAGR
+40.7%
5Y CAGR
+21.3%
10Y CAGR
+28.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
UMC vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
1.0x
vs 41.9x median
-98% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+6.2%
vs +6.0% median
+4% above peer median
Net Margin
20.8%
vs 13.0% median
+60% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UMC UMC United Microelectronics Corporation | $60.1B | 1.0x | +6.2% | 20.8% | Hold | -57.6% |
TSM TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited | $2.40T | 0.9x | +24.4% | 45.1% | Buy | +12.5% |
GFS GFS GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc. | $47.8B | 45.3x | +3.4% | 13.0% | Buy | -8.1% |
IMO IMOS ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES Inc. | $2.3B | 0.8x | +6.0% | 4.4% | Hold | — |
INT INTC Intel Corporation | $672.8B | 123.6x | +5.1% | -5.9% | Hold | -33.5% |
TXN TXN Texas Instruments Incorporated | $294.0B | 41.9x | +9.7% | 29.1% | Buy | -15.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
UMC Dividend and Capital Return
UMC returns 1.9% total yield, led by a 1.90% dividend.
Dividend At RiskFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
1.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
1.90%
Payout Ratio
86.2%
How UMC Splits Its Return
Div 1.90%
Dividend 1.90%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$14.41
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
-2.2%
5Y Div CAGR
28.8%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Annual
1 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
2.5B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $0.48 | +4.3% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 2024 | $0.46 | -20.9% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 2023 | $0.59 | +13.3% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 2022 | $0.52 | +80.4% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 2021 | $0.29 | +110.0% | 0.0% | 68.2% |
FAQ
7 questionsUMC Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is United Microelectronics Corporation (UMC) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
United Microelectronics Corporation (UMC) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 15 analysts covering the stock, 4 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 8 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $10, implying -57.6% from the current price of $24. The bear case scenario is $659 and the bull case is $1379.
02What is the UMC stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for UMC is $10 based on 15 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $10 (-57.6% from today), and the low-end target is $10 (-57.6%). The base case model target is $1046.
03Is United Microelectronics Corporation (UMC) stock overvalued in 2026?
UMC trades at 1.0x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for United Microelectronics Corporation (UMC) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for UMC in 2026 are: (1) Valuation concerns — BNP Paribas downgraded UMC due to its valuation already pricing in a bullish AI growth story, leaving limited upside potential. (2) Weakening demand — UMC stocks have declined amid reports of weakening semiconductor demand, indicating potential revenue pressure. (3) Competitive positioning — UMC specializes in mature and specialty nodes, which may face challenges if industry shifts toward advanced nodes. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is United Microelectronics Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates UMC will report consensus revenue of $255.7B (+6.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $22.31 (+11.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $283.7B in revenue.
06When does United Microelectronics Corporation (UMC) report its next earnings?
United Microelectronics Corporation is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-29. Consensus expects EPS of $0.15 and revenue of $2.1B. Over recent quarters, UMC has beaten EPS estimates 70% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does United Microelectronics Corporation generate?
United Microelectronics Corporation (UMC) generated $50.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 20.8%. UMC returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.9% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).