Upside case
Bull case
$12-91.4%
The bull case prices INTC at 11x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Intel Corporation (INTC) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
84
analysts
31 bullish · 8 bearish · 84 covering INTC
Strong Buy
0
Buy
31
Hold
45
Sell
8
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$89
-33.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$6 – $12
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
84
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
123.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $672.8B
INTC price targets
Three scenarios for where INTC stock could go
Current
~$134
Confidence
53 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $134
Bear
$6
Base
$9
Bull
$12
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$9-93.5%
At 8x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$6-95.9%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 119x multiple contraction could push INTC down roughly 96% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Intel Corporation
INTC · NASDAQTechnologySemiconductorsDecember year-end
Intel is a semiconductor company that designs and manufactures processors and related technologies for computing devices. It generates revenue primarily from selling client computing chips (~50% of sales) and data center processors (~35%), with additional income from networking, memory, and autonomous driving solutions. The company's key advantage is its integrated design-and-manufacturing model—maintaining advanced chip fabrication facilities that few competitors can match.
Market Cap
$672.8B
Revenue TTM
$53.8B
Net Income TTM
-$3.2B
Net Margin
-5.9%
INTC Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+171.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$-0.10/$0.01
Revenue
$12.9B/$12.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.23/$0.02
Revenue
$13.7B/$13.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.15/$0.08
Revenue
$13.7B/$13.4B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.29/$0.02
Revenue
$13.6B/$12.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $-0.10/$0.01 | -929.2% | $12.9B/$12.0B | +7.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.23/$0.02 | +1191.4% | $13.7B/$13.2B | +3.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.15/$0.08 | +84.4% | $13.7B/$13.4B | +1.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.29/$0.02 | +1428.7% | $13.6B/$12.4B | +9.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$56.5B
+5.1% YoY
FY2
$61.9B
+9.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$0.46
+173.7% YoY
FY2
$0.49
+5.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$3.1B
FCF Margin: -5.8%
Next Earnings
July 23, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.21
Expected Revenue
$14.3B
INTC beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
INTC Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $52.9B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Client Computing Group
61.0%
+6.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
39.2%
+21.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Client Computing Group is the largest disclosed segment at 61.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 6.4% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 39.2%, up 21.3% YoY.
INTC Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $28 — implies -79.1% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
79.1%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
INTC
-2274.9x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
9405% discount
vs Technology Trailing P/E
INTC
-2274.9x
vs
Technology
29.0x
7942% discount
vs INTC 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-2274.9x
vs
5Y Average
49.9x
4656% discount
Forward PE
123.6x
S&P 500
18.8x
+557%
Technology
22.3x
+455%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-2274.9x
S&P 500
24.4x
-9405%
Technology
29.0x
-7942%
5Y Avg
49.9x
-4656%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Technology
1.51x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
60.4x
S&P 500
15.2x
+297%
Technology
16.6x
+263%
5Y Avg
15.2x
+297%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
20.7x
—
Technology
19.2x
—
5Y Avg
23.0x
—
Price/Sales
12.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
+312%
Technology
2.4x
+422%
5Y Avg
2.6x
+380%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Technology
1.11%
—
5Y Avg
2.87%
—
| Metric | INTC | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg INTC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 123.6x | 18.8x+557% | 22.3x+455% | — |
| Trailing PE | -2274.9x | 24.4x-9405% | 29.0x-7942% | 49.9x-4656% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.51x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 60.4x | 15.2x+297% | 16.6x+263% | 15.2x+297% |
| Price/FCF | — | 20.7x | 19.2x | 23.0x |
| Price/Sales | 12.7x | 3.1x+312% | 2.4x+422% | 2.6x+380% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.11% | 2.87% |
INTC trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 4 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolINTC Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
Key financial metrics for INTC are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$53.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+1.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
35.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-9.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-5.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-0.62
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
-$3.1B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
-5.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-0.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-1.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$14.3B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$32.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
—
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-2.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
5.0B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageINTC Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Foundry profitability
Intel Foundry remains unprofitable, as highlighted in Q1 2026 earnings, posing a risk to overall corporate profitability and margins.
High Risk
Cash burn
Continued cash burn from major growth initiatives could negatively impact Intel's financial health and operational flexibility.
Medium
Competitive threats
Beyond internal challenges, Intel faces significant competitive threats in the semiconductor and foundry markets.
Medium
Overbought risks
The stock's surge and overbought conditions may lead to short-term volatility or pullbacks despite strong fundamentals.
Lower
Execution risks
Ramping up the 18A foundry node and managing partnerships with NVIDIA and SoftBank involves execution risks that could delay progress.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why INTC Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Foundry Services potential
Intel's Foundry Services division is seen as a key growth driver, leveraging strategic realignment and U.S. government incentives.
Strategic realignment
The company's strategic shifts are expected to enhance its competitive positioning amid technological and geopolitical challenges.
Government incentives leverage
Intel is well-positioned to benefit from U.S. government incentives, supporting its growth and technological advancements.
Strong stock performance
Intel's shares have surged over 140–170% YTD in 2026, reflecting strong market confidence in its turnaround.
Undervaluation vs. peers
Intel's valuation is considered attractive compared to fabless peers like NVDA, suggesting significant upside potential.
Innovation partnerships
Collaborations with companies like McLaren Racing highlight Intel's commitment to pushing technological boundaries.
Bullish analyst targets
Analysts have set aggressive price targets, including a $200 near-term target and long-term $5 trillion market cap projection.
Put option activity
Sophisticated investors are betting on Intel's upside, as seen in large put option sales wagering $12 million.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
INTC Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$133.99
52W Range Position
99%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$18.97
+606.3% from the low
52-Week High
$135.48
-1.1% from the high
1 Month
+23.87%
3 Month
+197.56%
YTD
+240.2%
1 Year
+523.5%
3Y CAGR
+56.4%
5Y CAGR
+19.2%
10Y CAGR
+15.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
INTC vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
123.6x
vs 35.5x median
+248% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.1%
vs +19.9% median
-75% below peer median
Net Margin
-5.9%
vs 29.1% median
-120% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
INT INTC Intel Corporation | $672.8B | 123.6x | +5.1% | -5.9% | Hold | -33.5% |
AMD AMD Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. | $876.1B | 72.0x | +25.1% | 13.3% | Buy | -15.7% |
QCO QCOM QUALCOMM Incorporated | $238.3B | 21.1x | +4.6% | 22.3% | Hold | -15.5% |
NVD NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | $5.10T | 23.6x | +37.8% | 63.0% | Buy | +50.4% |
TXN TXN Texas Instruments Incorporated | $294.0B | 41.9x | +9.7% | 29.1% | Buy | -15.1% |
AVG AVGO Broadcom Inc. | $1.96T | 35.5x | +19.9% | 42.2% | Buy | +21.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
INTC Dividend and Capital Return
INTC does not currently return meaningful capital to shareholders.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
-28.9%
5Y Div CAGR
-16.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
5.0B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $0.38 | -49.3% | 0.0% | 1.8% |
| 2023 | $0.74 | -49.3% | 0.0% | 1.5% |
| 2022 | $1.46 | +5.0% | 0.0% | 5.5% |
| 2021 | $1.39 | +5.3% | 1.2% | 3.8% |
| 2020 | $1.32 | +4.8% | 7.1% | 9.9% |
FAQ
7 questionsINTC Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Intel Corporation (INTC) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Intel Corporation (INTC) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 84 analysts covering the stock, 31 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 45 rate it Hold, and 8 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $89, implying -33.5% from the current price of $134. The bear case scenario is $6 and the bull case is $12.
02What is the INTC stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for INTC is $89 based on 84 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $150 (+11.9% from today), and the low-end target is $45 (-66.4%). The base case model target is $9.
03Is Intel Corporation (INTC) stock overvalued in 2026?
INTC trades at 123.6x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Intel Corporation (INTC) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for INTC in 2026 are: (1) Foundry profitability — Intel Foundry remains unprofitable, as highlighted in Q1 2026 earnings, posing a risk to overall corporate profitability and margins. (2) Cash burn — Continued cash burn from major growth initiatives could negatively impact Intel's financial health and operational flexibility. (3) Competitive threats — Beyond internal challenges, Intel faces significant competitive threats in the semiconductor and foundry markets. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Intel Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates INTC will report consensus revenue of $56.5B (+5.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $0.46 (+173.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $61.9B in revenue.
06When does Intel Corporation (INTC) report its next earnings?
Intel Corporation is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-23. Consensus expects EPS of $0.21 and revenue of $14.3B. Over recent quarters, INTC has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Intel Corporation generate?
Intel Corporation (INTC) had a free cash outflow of $3.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 5.8%. INTC returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).