Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing INTC more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Intel Corporation (INTC) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
84
analysts
30 bullish · 9 bearish · 84 covering INTC
Strong Buy
0
Buy
30
Hold
45
Sell
9
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$77
-28.7% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
84
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
103.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $543.2B
INTC price targets
Three scenarios for where INTC stock could go
Current
~$108
Confidence
48 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Intel Corporation
INTC · NASDAQTechnologySemiconductorsDecember year-end
Intel is a semiconductor company that designs and manufactures processors and related technologies for computing devices. It generates revenue primarily from selling client computing chips (~50% of sales) and data center processors (~35%), with additional income from networking, memory, and autonomous driving solutions. The company's key advantage is its integrated design-and-manufacturing model—maintaining advanced chip fabrication facilities that few competitors can match.
Market Cap
$543.2B
Revenue TTM
$53.8B
Net Income TTM
-$3.2B
Net Margin
-5.9%
INTC Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+171.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$-0.10/$0.01
Revenue
$12.9B/$12.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.23/$0.02
Revenue
$13.7B/$13.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.15/$0.08
Revenue
$13.7B/$13.4B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.29/$0.02
Revenue
$13.6B/$12.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $-0.10/$0.01 | -929.2% | $12.9B/$12.0B | +7.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.23/$0.02 | +1191.4% | $13.7B/$13.2B | +3.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.15/$0.08 | +84.4% | $13.7B/$13.4B | +1.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.29/$0.02 | +1428.7% | $13.6B/$12.4B | +9.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$55.8B
+3.9% YoY
FY2
$57.0B
+2.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$0.45
+172.3% YoY
FY2
$0.42
-6.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$3.1B
FCF Margin: -5.8%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
INTC beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
INTC Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $52.9B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Client Computing Group
61.0%
+6.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
39.2%
+21.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Client Computing Group is the largest disclosed segment at 61.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 6.4% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 39.2%, up 21.3% YoY.
INTC Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $46 — implies -54.0% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
54.0%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
INTC
-1836.7x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
7415% discount
vs Technology Trailing P/E
INTC
-1836.7x
vs
Technology
26.7x
6970% discount
vs INTC 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-1836.7x
vs
5Y Average
49.9x
3778% discount
Forward PE
103.7x
S&P 500
19.1x
+444%
Technology
22.1x
+369%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-1836.7x
S&P 500
25.1x
-7415%
Technology
26.7x
-6970%
5Y Avg
49.9x
-3778%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Technology
1.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
49.3x
S&P 500
15.2x
+224%
Technology
17.5x
+182%
5Y Avg
15.2x
+224%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.1x
—
Technology
19.5x
—
5Y Avg
23.0x
—
Price/Sales
10.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
+229%
Technology
2.4x
+321%
5Y Avg
2.6x
+288%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.87%
—
Technology
1.16%
—
5Y Avg
2.87%
—
| Metric | INTC | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg INTC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 103.7x | 19.1x+444% | 22.1x+369% | — |
| Trailing PE | -1836.7x | 25.1x-7415% | 26.7x-6970% | 49.9x-3778% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 1.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 49.3x | 15.2x+224% | 17.5x+182% | 15.2x+224% |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.1x | 19.5x | 23.0x |
| Price/Sales | 10.3x | 3.1x+229% | 2.4x+321% | 2.6x+288% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.87% | 1.16% | 2.87% |
INTC trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 4 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolINTC Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
Key financial metrics for INTC are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$53.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+1.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
35.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-9.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-5.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-0.62
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
-$3.1B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
-5.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-0.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-1.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$14.3B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$32.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
—
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-2.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
5.0B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageINTC Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Core Business Margin Collapse
Intel’s Client Computing Group (CCG) faces significant margin compression driven by weak revenue guidance, declining year‑over‑year revenue, and rising memory chip prices. A sustained squeeze could materially erode operating income and free cash flow.
High Risk
Execution Risks for Turnaround
The success of Intel’s 18A process technology and foundry business model hinges on flawless execution. Delays, yield issues, or cost overruns could derail the turnaround and weaken competitive positioning.
Medium
Foundry 'Field of Dreams' Gamble
Intel’s foundry transformation requires large capital expenditures with no guaranteed external revenue. Failure to secure anchor customers for the 14A node could jeopardize the entire turnaround strategy.
Medium
Intensifying Competition
Intel competes with AMD and ARM in the PC market and NVIDIA in AI. These rivals have shown strong revenue growth, threatening Intel’s market share and pricing power.
Medium
Manufacturing Setbacks & Tech Lag
Despite heavy capex and government support, manufacturing setbacks and lagging node technology could undermine Intel’s foundry ambitions and delay product launches.
Medium
Geopolitical & Regulatory Risks
US government investment introduces dilution and reduced voting power, while trade policy uncertainty and broader political dynamics could impact Intel’s international operations and future transactions.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why INTC Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
18A Process & Terafab Initiative
Intel’s 18A process technology and Terafab initiative aim to reclaim manufacturing leadership. These advancements position Intel to compete directly with TSMC and capture market share in the booming AI chip sector.
Foundry Services Revenue Diversification
Intel Foundry Services (IFS) is gaining traction with third‑party customers such as Tesla, Amazon, and Google. The move diversifies Intel’s traditional product lines and could become a significant revenue driver.
Strategic Partnerships & Government Support
Intel’s involvement in Elon Musk’s Terafab project and collaborations with CrowdStrike and Google reinforce its role in AI and cloud infrastructure. CHIPS Act funding further bolsters Intel’s advanced manufacturing investments.
AI Processor Business Growth
Intel’s custom AI processor business achieved an annualized revenue run rate of $1 billion. This growth underpins the company’s expansion in AI and data‑center markets.
Projected Profitability of Foundry Services
Forecasts suggest Intel Foundry Services could turn profitable by fiscal year 2028, while the company may achieve positive free cash flow by fiscal year 2027. These milestones signal a turnaround in Intel’s financial performance.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
INTC Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$108.18
52W Range Position
97%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$18.97
+470.3% from the low
52-Week High
$110.48
-2.1% from the high
1 Month
+113.04%
3 Month
+124.25%
YTD
+174.7%
1 Year
+433.7%
3Y CAGR
+51.7%
5Y CAGR
+13.7%
10Y CAGR
+13.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
INTC vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
103.7x
vs 37.2x median
+179% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+3.9%
vs +29.0% median
-87% below peer median
Net Margin
-5.9%
vs 29.1% median
-120% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
INT INTC Intel Corporation | $543.2B | 103.7x | +3.9% | -5.9% | Hold | -28.7% |
AMD AMD Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. | $579.2B | 51.9x | +29.0% | 13.4% | Buy | -12.5% |
QCO QCOM QUALCOMM Incorporated | $196.6B | 17.4x | +1.4% | 22.3% | Hold | -6.2% |
NVD NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | $4.78T | 23.7x | +50.9% | 55.6% | Buy | +41.9% |
TXN TXN Texas Instruments Incorporated | $255.7B | 37.2x | +10.5% | 29.1% | Buy | -9.7% |
AVG AVGO Broadcom Inc. | $2.03T | 37.8x | +38.9% | 36.6% | Buy | +3.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
INTC Dividend and Capital Return
INTC does not currently return meaningful capital to shareholders.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
5.0B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $0.38 | -49.3% | 0.0% | 1.8% |
| 2023 | $0.74 | -49.3% | 0.0% | 1.5% |
| 2022 | $1.46 | +5.0% | 0.0% | 5.5% |
| 2021 | $1.39 | +5.3% | 1.2% | 3.8% |
| 2020 | $1.32 | +4.8% | 7.1% | 9.9% |
FAQ
7 questionsINTC Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Intel Corporation (INTC) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Intel Corporation (INTC) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 84 analysts covering the stock, 30 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 45 rate it Hold, and 9 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $77, implying -28.7% from the current price of $108.
02What is the INTC stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for INTC is $77 based on 84 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $118 (+9.1% from today), and the low-end target is $45 (-58.4%).
03Is Intel Corporation (INTC) stock overvalued in 2026?
INTC trades at 103.7x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Intel Corporation (INTC) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for INTC in 2026 are: (1) Core Business Margin Collapse — Intel’s Client Computing Group (CCG) faces significant margin compression driven by weak revenue guidance, declining year‑over‑year revenue, and rising memory chip prices. (2) Execution Risks for Turnaround — The success of Intel’s 18A process technology and foundry business model hinges on flawless execution. (3) Foundry 'Field of Dreams' Gamble — Intel’s foundry transformation requires large capital expenditures with no guaranteed external revenue. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Intel Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates INTC will report consensus revenue of $55.8B (+3.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $0.45 (+172.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $57.0B in revenue.
06When does Intel Corporation (INTC) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for INTC is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Intel Corporation generate?
Intel Corporation (INTC) had a free cash outflow of $3.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 5.8%. INTC returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).