Upside case
Bull case
$117+48.8%
GGG would need investors to value it at roughly 37x earnings — about 12x more generous than today's 25x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Graco Inc. (GGG) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
20
analysts
6 bullish · 0 bearish · 20 covering GGG
Strong Buy
0
Buy
6
Hold
14
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$96
+21.6% vs today
Scenario Range
$26 – $117
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
20
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
25.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $13.1B
GGG price targets
Three scenarios for where GGG stock could go
Current
~$79
Confidence
47 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $79
Bear
$26
Base
$90
Bull
$117
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$90+14.6%
At 29x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$26-66.6%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 17x multiple contraction could push GGG down roughly 67% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Graco Inc.
GGG · NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachineryDecember year-end
Graco is a specialized industrial equipment manufacturer that designs and produces systems for moving, measuring, controlling, dispensing, and spraying fluid and powder materials. It generates revenue primarily through two segments: Industrial equipment for coatings and adhesives (~60% of sales) and Process equipment for fluid handling in chemical, oil & gas, and food industries (~40%). The company's competitive advantage lies in its deep technical expertise in fluid handling, strong brand reputation for reliability, and extensive global distribution network serving niche industrial markets.
Market Cap
$13.1B
Revenue TTM
$2.2B
Net Income TTM
$516M
Net Margin
23.0%
GGG Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
25%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
25%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-4.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 1 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.75/$0.79
Revenue
$572M/$591M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.73/$0.74
Revenue
$543M/$562M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.77/$0.77
Revenue
$593M/$590M
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.66/$0.75
Revenue
$540M/$561M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.75/$0.79 | -5.3% | $572M/$591M | -3.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.73/$0.74 | -1.1% | $543M/$562M | -3.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.77/$0.77 | +0.0% | $593M/$590M | +0.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.66/$0.75 | -12.0% | $540M/$561M | -3.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$2.4B
+4.7% YoY
FY2
$2.5B
+4.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.28
+6.9% YoY
FY2
$3.53
+7.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$631M
FCF Margin: 28.1%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
GGG beat EPS estimates in 1 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
GGG Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $2.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Contractor
47.9%
+8.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
52.3%
+1.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Contractor is the largest disclosed segment at 47.9% of FY 2025 revenue, up 8.4% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 52.3%, up 1.8% YoY.
GGG Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Undervalued
Fair value est. $86 — implies +8.5% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
8.5%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
GGG
25.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
In line with benchmark
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
GGG
25.5x
vs
Industrials
25.7x
In line with benchmark
vs GGG 5Y Avg P/E
Today
25.5x
vs
5Y Average
28.7x
11% discount
Forward PE
25.2x
S&P 500
19.1x
+32%
Industrials
20.7x
+21%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
25.5x
S&P 500
25.1x
+2%
Industrials
25.7x
-0%
5Y Avg
28.7x
-11%
PEG Ratio
2.58x
S&P 500
1.72x
+50%
Industrials
1.64x
+57%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
17.4x
S&P 500
15.2x
+14%
Industrials
13.7x
+27%
5Y Avg
20.2x
-14%
Price/FCF
20.5x
S&P 500
21.1x
-3%
Industrials
21.2x
-3%
5Y Avg
38.4x
-47%
Price/Sales
5.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
+87%
Industrials
1.6x
+268%
5Y Avg
6.5x
-10%
Dividend Yield
1.38%
S&P 500
1.87%
-26%
Industrials
1.27%
+9%
5Y Avg
1.13%
+21%
| Metric | GGG | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg GGG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 25.2x | 19.1x+32% | 20.7x+21% | — |
| Trailing PE | 25.5x | 25.1x | 25.7x | 28.7x-11% |
| PEG Ratio | 2.58x | 1.72x+50% | 1.64x+57% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.4x | 15.2x+14% | 13.7x+27% | 20.2x-14% |
| Price/FCF | 20.5x | 21.1x | 21.2x | 38.4x-47% |
| Price/Sales | 5.8x | 3.1x+87% | 1.6x+268% | 6.5x-10% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.38% | 1.87% | 1.27% | 1.13% |
GGG trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolGGG Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
GGG generates $631M in free cash flow at a 28.1% margin — 22.6% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 4.6% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$2.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+4.6%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
52.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
26.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
23.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.07
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$631M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
28.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
22.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
16.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$624M
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$563M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
19.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.6%
Dividend
1.4%
Buyback
3.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$423M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.08
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
35.1%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
166M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageGGG Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Valuation Risks
Graco's stock is currently trading at a high P/E ratio of 26.15, which exceeds the market average. Analysts suggest that this overvaluation could lead to a significant downside if market conditions deteriorate.
High Risk
Insider Selling
In the past three months, Graco insiders have sold significantly more stock than they have purchased. This trend may indicate a lack of confidence in the company's short-term prospects, raising concerns for investors.
High Risk
Macroeconomic Conditions
The fragile construction market, which constitutes a large portion of Graco's sales, poses a substantial risk. Additionally, volatile oil prices and ongoing supply chain disruptions further complicate the company's operational landscape.
Medium
Legal and Regulatory Risks
Changes in laws and regulations, or the introduction of new ones, can adversely affect Graco's business operations and increase costs. This risk is particularly pronounced due to the company's global presence.
Medium
Production and Supply Chain
Disruptions in the supply chain can significantly impact Graco's production capabilities. Furthermore, there is a risk of unintentional loss of confidential information and potential issues with suppliers.
Medium
Geopolitical Factors
The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the war with Iran, have been identified as a risk factor that may adversely affect Graco's operations and market stability.
Lower
Technological Risks
Graco faces risks associated with technological advancements and its ability to innovate effectively. Failure to keep pace with technological changes could hinder the company's competitive position.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why GGG Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Dominant Market Position and 'Stickiness'
Graco is a leader in the fluid handling industry, providing precision equipment for moving, measuring, and controlling fluids and powders. Its products are deeply integrated into customer production lines, leading to high customer retention and creating a recurring revenue stream from aftermarket parts, servicing, and system upgrades.
Financial Strength and Discipline
The company exhibits strong gross margins, low capital needs, high free cash flow, and minimal debt. Graco demonstrates impressive financial discipline, compounding steadily through operational execution, with high operating and profit margins that place it in the top tier of its industry group.
Consistent Growth and Operational Execution
Graco has a history of steady growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for revenue and EBIT that meets quality investing criteria. Recent order growth has been strong, reflecting robust demand in key segments outside of the Asia Pacific region.
Strategic Growth and Tailwinds
Growth is driven by both organic innovation and geographic expansion, as well as strategic bolt-on acquisitions. Long-term industrial trends such as automation and environmental regulations act as tailwinds for Graco's business, positioning it well for future organic growth.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
GGG Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$78.68
52W Range Position
5%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$77.70
+1.3% from the low
52-Week High
$95.69
-17.8% from the high
1 Month
-6.92%
3 Month
-14.87%
YTD
-4.8%
1 Year
-4.3%
3Y CAGR
+0.0%
5Y CAGR
+0.3%
10Y CAGR
+11.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
GGG vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
25.2x
vs 21.0x median
+20% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+4.7%
vs +5.0% median
-6% below peer median
Net Margin
23.0%
vs 16.0% median
+44% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GGG GGG Graco Inc. | $13.1B | 25.2x | +4.7% | 23.0% | Hold | +21.6% |
ITW ITW Illinois Tool Works Inc. | $73.4B | 22.6x | +1.8% | 19.3% | Hold | +7.5% |
ROP ROP Roper Technologies, Inc. | $36.7B | 16.3x | +9.7% | 21.1% | Buy | +28.3% |
XYL XYL Xylem Inc. | $27.7B | 21.0x | +6.5% | 10.7% | Hold | +30.2% |
FEL FELE Franklin Electric Co., Inc. | $4.4B | 21.8x | +5.0% | 6.9% | Hold | -0.0% |
PNR PNR Pentair plc | $12.6B | 14.5x | +2.4% | 16.0% | Hold | +45.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
GGG Dividend and Capital Return
GGG returns capital mainly through $423M/year in buybacks (3.2% buyback yield), with a modest 1.38% dividend — combining for 4.6% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 20 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
4.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.2%
Dividend Yield
1.38%
Payout Ratio
35.1%
How GGG Splits Its Return
Div 1.38%
Buyback 3.2%
Dividend 1.38%Buybacks 3.2%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.08
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
20Y
3Y Div CAGR
9.4%
5Y Div CAGR
9.5%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$423M
Estimated Shares Retired
5M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
166M
At 3.2%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.59 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.10 | +7.8% | — | — |
| 2024 | $1.02 | +8.5% | — | — |
| 2023 | $0.94 | +11.9% | 0.7% | 1.7% |
| 2022 | $0.84 | +12.0% | 2.0% | 3.2% |
FAQ
7 questionsGGG Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Graco Inc. (GGG) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Graco Inc. (GGG) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 20 analysts covering the stock, 6 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 14 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $96, implying +21.6% from the current price of $79. The bear case scenario is $26 and the bull case is $117.
02What is the GGG stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for GGG is $96 based on 20 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $100 (+27.1% from today), and the low-end target is $92 (+16.9%). The base case model target is $90.
03Is Graco Inc. (GGG) stock overvalued in 2026?
GGG trades at 25.2x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Graco Inc. (GGG) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for GGG in 2026 are: (1) Valuation Risks — Graco's stock is currently trading at a high P/E ratio of 26. (2) Insider Selling — In the past three months, Graco insiders have sold significantly more stock than they have purchased. (3) Macroeconomic Conditions — The fragile construction market, which constitutes a large portion of Graco's sales, poses a substantial risk. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Graco Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates GGG will report consensus revenue of $2.4B (+4.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.28 (+6.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $2.5B in revenue.
06When does Graco Inc. (GGG) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for GGG is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Graco Inc. generate?
Graco Inc. (GGG) generated $631M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 28.1%. GGG returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.4% yield) and share repurchases ($423M TTM).