Upside case
Bull case
$101+86.5%
BMY would need investors to value it at roughly 16x earnings — about 7x more generous than today's 9x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
41
analysts
19 bullish · 2 bearish · 41 covering BMY
Strong Buy
0
Buy
19
Hold
20
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$63
+15.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$48 – $101
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
41
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
8.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $110.3B
BMY price targets
Three scenarios for where BMY stock could go
Current
~$54
Confidence
51 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $54
Bear
$48
Base
$76
Bull
$101
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$76+41.6%
At 12x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$48-10.8%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 1x multiple contraction could push BMY down roughly 11% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Bristol-Myers Squibb Company
BMY · NYSEHealthcareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralDecember year-end
Bristol-Myers Squibb is a global biopharmaceutical company that discovers, develops, and markets innovative medicines for serious diseases. It generates revenue primarily from blockbuster drugs like Eliquis (~40% of sales), Opdivo (~25%), and Revlimid (~15%), with the remainder coming from its broader portfolio of oncology, cardiovascular, and immunology treatments. The company's competitive advantage lies in its deep expertise in oncology and immunology research, complemented by strategic acquisitions that have expanded its pipeline and commercial portfolio.
Market Cap
$110.3B
Revenue TTM
$48.5B
Net Income TTM
$7.3B
Net Margin
15.0%
BMY Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+12.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.46/$1.09
Revenue
$12.3B/$11.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.63/$1.52
Revenue
$12.2B/$11.9B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.26/$1.23
Revenue
$12.5B/$12.3B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.58/$1.42
Revenue
$11.5B/$10.9B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.46/$1.09 | +33.9% | $12.3B/$11.4B | +7.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.63/$1.52 | +7.2% | $12.2B/$11.9B | +3.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.26/$1.23 | +2.4% | $12.5B/$12.3B | +1.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.58/$1.42 | +11.3% | $11.5B/$10.9B | +5.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$49.0B
+1.0% YoY
FY2
$49.4B
+0.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$4.84
+36.1% YoY
FY2
$4.62
-4.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$11.9B
FCF Margin: 24.6%
Next Earnings
July 30, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.61
Expected Revenue
$11.7B
BMY beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
BMY Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $48.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Eliquis
30.0%
+8.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
96.8%
-2.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Eliquis is the largest disclosed segment at 30.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 8.3% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 96.8%, down 2.4% YoY.
BMY Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $101 — implies +87.9% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
87.9%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
BMY
15.7x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
36% discount
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
BMY
15.7x
vs
Healthcare
22.1x
29% discount
vs BMY 5Y Avg P/E
Today
15.7x
vs
5Y Average
18.3x
15% discount
Forward PE
8.5x
S&P 500
18.8x
-55%
Healthcare
18.3x
-53%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
15.7x
S&P 500
24.4x
-36%
Healthcare
22.1x
-29%
5Y Avg
18.3x
-15%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Healthcare
1.59x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
8.9x
S&P 500
15.2x
-42%
Healthcare
14.2x
-37%
5Y Avg
8.5x
+5%
Price/FCF
8.6x
S&P 500
20.7x
-59%
Healthcare
18.5x
-54%
5Y Avg
9.5x
-9%
Price/Sales
2.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
-26%
Healthcare
2.6x
-13%
5Y Avg
2.7x
-15%
Dividend Yield
4.58%
S&P 500
1.91%
+139%
Healthcare
1.50%
+205%
5Y Avg
3.88%
+18%
| Metric | BMY | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg BMY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 8.5x | 18.8x-55% | 18.3x-53% | — |
| Trailing PE | 15.7x | 24.4x-36% | 22.1x-29% | 18.3x-15% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.59x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.9x | 15.2x-42% | 14.2x-37% | 8.5x |
| Price/FCF | 8.6x | 20.7x-59% | 18.5x-54% | 9.5x |
| Price/Sales | 2.3x | 3.1x-26% | 2.6x-13% | 2.7x-15% |
| Dividend Yield | 4.58% | 1.91% | 1.50% | 3.88% |
BMY trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolBMY Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
BMY generates $11.9B in free cash flow at a 24.6% margin — 16.9% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 4.6% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$48.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+1.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
68.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
25.7%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
15.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.56
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$11.9B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
24.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
16.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
7.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$10.2B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$36.9B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
3.1× FCF
~3.1 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
39.0%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.6%
Dividend
4.6%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.47
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
71.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
2.0B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageBMY Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Patent cliff
Bristol-Myers Squibb faces a major patent cliff for its top drugs, Eliquis and Opdivo, starting around 2026, threatening future revenue streams.
High Risk
Pipeline dependency
The company's future growth hinges entirely on the success of its new product portfolio, including Reblozyl, Camzyos, and recently acquired assets.
Medium
Financial health
Investors must weigh Bristol-Myers Squibb's financial health, debt structure, and dividend sustainability against competitive and macroeconomic headwinds.
Medium
Valuation risk
A bear case DCF valuation suggests a potential downside to $62, indicating significant valuation risk at current price levels.
Lower
Regulatory risks
The company disclosed 23 risk factors in its recent earnings report, which may include regulatory and compliance challenges.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why BMY Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Undervalued stock
The stock appears modestly undervalued, trading at about a 20% discount to fair value following its recent earnings release.
Pipeline reliance
The bullish thesis highlights reliance on its pipeline, particularly Cobenfy, to offset revenue losses from expiring blockbusters.
Institutional ownership
Top institutional holder Vanguard owns 9.73% of the company, indicating strong institutional confidence.
Patent cliff transition
Bristol Myers Squibb is navigating one of the largest patent cliff transitions in industry history, with potential for pipeline-driven recovery.
Bullish analyst coverage
Analysts like Magnus Ofstad have published bullish theses on the company, emphasizing its pipeline and long-term potential.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
BMY Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$54.00
52W Range Position
56%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$42.52
+27.0% from the low
52-Week High
$62.89
-14.1% from the high
1 Month
-5.78%
3 Month
-9.04%
YTD
+1.0%
1 Year
+15.3%
3Y CAGR
-6.5%
5Y CAGR
-4.1%
10Y CAGR
-2.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
BMY vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
8.5x
vs 19.7x median
-57% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+1.0%
vs +7.0% median
-86% below peer median
Net Margin
15.0%
vs 27.3% median
-45% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BMY BMY Bristol-Myers Squibb Company | $110.3B | 8.5x | +1.0% | 15.0% | Hold | +15.9% |
PFE PFE Pfizer Inc. | $143.5B | 8.5x | 0.0% | 11.8% | Hold | +6.1% |
MRK MRK Merck & Co., Inc. | $281.2B | 22.2x | +4.2% | 28.1% | Buy | +15.6% |
ABB ABBV AbbVie Inc. | $383.2B | 15.2x | +8.7% | 6.9% | Buy | +18.6% |
LLY LLY Eli Lilly and Company | $1.04T | 30.0x | +15.1% | 35.0% | Buy | +15.8% |
JNJ JNJ Johnson & Johnson | $550.4B | 19.7x | +7.0% | 27.3% | Buy | +10.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
BMY Dividend and Capital Return
BMY returns 4.6% total yield, led by a 4.58% dividend.
Dividend WatchFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
4.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
4.58%
Payout Ratio
71.5%
How BMY Splits Its Return
Div 4.58%
Dividend 4.58%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.47
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
4Y
3Y Div CAGR
4.7%
5Y Div CAGR
1.6%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
2.0B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.89 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.48 | +3.3% | 0.0% | 4.6% |
| 2024 | $2.40 | +5.3% | 0.0% | 4.2% |
| 2023 | $2.28 | +5.6% | 4.8% | 9.3% |
| 2022 | $2.16 | +46.9% | 5.2% | 8.2% |
FAQ
7 questionsBMY Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 41 analysts covering the stock, 19 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 20 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $63, implying +15.9% from the current price of $54. The bear case scenario is $48 and the bull case is $101.
02What is the BMY stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for BMY is $63 based on 41 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $75 (+38.9% from today), and the low-end target is $40 (-25.9%). The base case model target is $76.
03Is Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY) stock overvalued in 2026?
BMY trades at 8.5x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for BMY in 2026 are: (1) Patent cliff — Bristol-Myers Squibb faces a major patent cliff for its top drugs, Eliquis and Opdivo, starting around 2026, threatening future revenue streams. (2) Pipeline dependency — The company's future growth hinges entirely on the success of its new product portfolio, including Reblozyl, Camzyos, and recently acquired assets. (3) Financial health — Investors must weigh Bristol-Myers Squibb's financial health, debt structure, and dividend sustainability against competitive and macroeconomic headwinds. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Bristol-Myers Squibb Company's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates BMY will report consensus revenue of $49.0B (+1.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $4.84 (+36.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $49.4B in revenue.
06When does Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY) report its next earnings?
Bristol-Myers Squibb Company is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-30. Consensus expects EPS of $1.61 and revenue of $11.7B. Over recent quarters, BMY has beaten EPS estimates 92% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Bristol-Myers Squibb Company generate?
Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY) generated $11.9B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 24.6%. BMY returns capital to shareholders through dividends (4.6% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).