Upside case
Bull case
$638+89.1%
AMGN would need investors to value it at roughly 29x earnings — about 13x more generous than today's 15x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Amgen Inc. (AMGN) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
38
analysts
22 bullish · 3 bearish · 38 covering AMGN
Strong Buy
0
Buy
22
Hold
13
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$349
+3.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$305 – $638
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
38
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
15.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $182.2B
AMGN price targets
Three scenarios for where AMGN stock could go
Current
~$338
Confidence
54 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $338
Bear
$305
Base
$485
Bull
$638
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$485+43.5%
At 22x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$305-9.6%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 1x multiple contraction could push AMGN down roughly 10% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Amgen Inc.
AMGN · NASDAQHealthcareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralDecember year-end
Amgen is a global biotechnology company that discovers, develops, manufactures, and markets innovative human therapeutics for serious illnesses. It generates revenue primarily from sales of its branded biologic medicines — with key products including Enbrel, Prolia, Otezla, and Repatha — across therapeutic areas like oncology, inflammation, bone health, and cardiovascular disease. The company's moat lies in its deep expertise in complex biologics manufacturing, extensive patent protection for its innovative therapies, and a robust pipeline of novel drug candidates.
Market Cap
$182.2B
Revenue TTM
$37.2B
Net Income TTM
$7.8B
Net Margin
20.9%
AMGN Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+8.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$6.02/$5.28
Revenue
$9.2B/$8.9B
Q4 2025
EPS
$5.64/$5.02
Revenue
$9.6B/$9.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$5.29/$4.73
Revenue
$9.9B/$9.5B
Q2 2026
EPS
$5.15/$4.77
Revenue
$8.6B/$8.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $6.02/$5.28 | +14.0% | $9.2B/$8.9B | +2.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.64/$5.02 | +12.4% | $9.6B/$9.0B | +6.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $5.29/$4.73 | +11.8% | $9.9B/$9.5B | +4.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $5.15/$4.77 | +8.0% | $8.6B/$8.6B | +0.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$39.6B
+6.2% YoY
FY2
$40.7B
+2.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$19.45
+35.7% YoY
FY2
$19.41
-0.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$8.6B
FCF Margin: 23.1%
Next Earnings
August 4, 2026
Expected EPS
$5.55
Expected Revenue
$9.4B
AMGN beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
AMGN Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $35.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Other Products
20.6%
+29.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
71.9%
+10.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Other Products is the largest disclosed segment at 20.6% of FY 2025 revenue, up 29.0% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 71.9%, up 10.7% YoY.
AMGN Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $274 — implies -18.8% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
18.8%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
AMGN
23.7x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
In line with benchmark
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
AMGN
23.7x
vs
Healthcare
22.1x
+7% premium
vs AMGN 5Y Avg P/E
Today
23.7x
vs
5Y Average
24.8x
In line with benchmark
Forward PE
15.1x
S&P 500
18.8x
-20%
Healthcare
18.3x
-18%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
23.7x
S&P 500
24.4x
-3%
Healthcare
22.1x
+7%
5Y Avg
24.8x
-4%
PEG Ratio
8.07x
S&P 500
1.66x
+386%
Healthcare
1.59x
+407%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
14.4x
S&P 500
15.2x
-6%
Healthcare
14.2x
+1%
5Y Avg
14.7x
-2%
Price/FCF
22.5x
S&P 500
20.7x
+9%
Healthcare
18.5x
+21%
5Y Avg
17.6x
+28%
Price/Sales
5.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
+60%
Healthcare
2.6x
+88%
5Y Avg
5.0x
-0%
Dividend Yield
2.80%
S&P 500
1.91%
+46%
Healthcare
1.50%
+87%
5Y Avg
3.06%
-9%
| Metric | AMGN | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg AMGN |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 15.1x | 18.8x-20% | 18.3x-18% | — |
| Trailing PE | 23.7x | 24.4x | 22.1x | 24.8x |
| PEG Ratio | 8.07x | 1.66x+386% | 1.59x+407% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.4x | 15.2x | 14.2x | 14.7x |
| Price/FCF | 22.5x | 20.7x | 18.5x+21% | 17.6x+28% |
| Price/Sales | 5.0x | 3.1x+60% | 2.6x+88% | 5.0x |
| Dividend Yield | 2.80% | 1.91% | 1.50% | 3.06% |
AMGN trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolAMGN Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
AMGN generates $8.6B in free cash flow at a 23.1% margin — 14.8% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 2.8% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$37.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+9.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
71.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
31.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
20.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$14.34
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$8.6B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
23.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
14.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
8.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$9.1B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$45.5B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
5.3× FCF
~5.3 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
89.4%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (14.8%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.8%
Dividend
2.8%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$9.45
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
66.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
540M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageAMGN Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Patent expirations
Amgen faces significant risks from patent expirations, which could lead to revenue loss as exclusivity ends for key products.
High Risk
Biosimilar competition
Increased competition from biosimilars threatens Amgen's market share and pricing power for its biologic drugs.
High Risk
Revenue concentration
Amgen's revenue is heavily concentrated in a few key products, making it vulnerable to declines in any one of them.
High Risk
Drug pricing pressure
Ongoing regulatory and market pressures on drug pricing could negatively impact Amgen's profitability and growth.
Medium
Pipeline execution
Amgen's ability to sustain growth depends on successfully developing and commercializing new drugs in its pipeline.
Medium
Manufacturing reliability
Any disruptions or failures in manufacturing could lead to supply shortages and harm Amgen's reputation and financial performance.
Medium
Regulatory oversight
Stringent regulatory requirements and potential legal challenges could delay approvals or increase compliance costs.
Medium
Legal liabilities
Amgen faces legal risks, such as the recent $20 million patent liability case, which could impact financials and reputation.
Lower
Valuation stagnation
Analyst forecasts suggest limited upside potential for AMGN stock, with minimal growth expected by 2026.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why AMGN Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Innovative medicine pipeline
Amgen focuses on discovering and developing innovative medicines for serious illnesses with limited treatment options, leveraging biology and technology.
Strong earnings growth
Amgen has demonstrated robust earnings growth, contributing to a significant stock price appreciation.
MariTide pipeline potential
The MariTide pipeline represents a key growth driver with substantial upside potential for Amgen.
Valuation upside
Amgen's trailing and forward P/E ratios suggest attractive valuation metrics, indicating potential for further upside.
Global market presence
With operations in approximately 100 countries, Amgen has a broad and diversified global reach.
Dow Jones and Nasdaq inclusion
Amgen's inclusion in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq-100 Index underscores its market prominence and stability.
Biopharmaceutical leadership
As one of the largest biomedical companies by revenue, Amgen holds a strong position in the biopharmaceutical industry.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
AMGN Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$337.60
52W Range Position
57%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$267.83
+26.1% from the low
52-Week High
$391.29
-13.7% from the high
1 Month
+4.07%
3 Month
-3.95%
YTD
+3.0%
1 Year
+16.6%
3Y CAGR
+13.9%
5Y CAGR
+7.2%
10Y CAGR
+8.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
AMGN vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
15.1x
vs 13.3x median
+13% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+6.2%
vs +7.1% median
-12% below peer median
Net Margin
20.9%
vs 29.6% median
-29% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AMG AMGN Amgen Inc. | $182.2B | 15.1x | +6.2% | 20.9% | Buy | +3.5% |
GIL GILD Gilead Sciences, Inc. | $153.7B | — | +7.1% | 31.0% | Buy | +30.7% |
BII BIIB Biogen Inc. | $29.0B | 13.5x | +2.8% | 13.9% | Buy | +11.1% |
REG REGN Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | $63.4B | 13.1x | +9.0% | 29.6% | Buy | +37.1% |
VRT VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated | $114.9B | 23.4x | +11.0% | 35.4% | Buy | +22.7% |
BMY BMY Bristol-Myers Squibb Company | $110.3B | 8.5x | +1.0% | 15.0% | Hold | +15.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
AMGN Dividend and Capital Return
AMGN returns 2.8% total yield, led by a 2.80% dividend, raised 15 consecutive years.
Dividend WatchFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
2.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
2.80%
Payout Ratio
66.5%
How AMGN Splits Its Return
Div 2.80%
Dividend 2.80%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$9.45
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
15Y
3Y Div CAGR
7.1%
5Y Div CAGR
8.3%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
540M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $5.04 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $9.52 | +5.8% | 0.0% | 2.9% |
| 2024 | $9.00 | +5.6% | 0.1% | 3.6% |
| 2023 | $8.52 | +9.8% | 0.0% | 2.9% |
| 2022 | $7.76 | +10.2% | 4.5% | 7.4% |
FAQ
7 questionsAMGN Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Amgen Inc. (AMGN) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Amgen Inc. (AMGN) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 38 analysts covering the stock, 22 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 13 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $349, implying +3.5% from the current price of $338. The bear case scenario is $305 and the bull case is $638.
02What is the AMGN stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for AMGN is $349 based on 38 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $427 (+26.5% from today), and the low-end target is $185 (-45.2%). The base case model target is $485.
03Is Amgen Inc. (AMGN) stock overvalued in 2026?
AMGN trades at 15.1x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Amgen Inc. (AMGN) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for AMGN in 2026 are: (1) Patent expirations — Amgen faces significant risks from patent expirations, which could lead to revenue loss as exclusivity ends for key products. (2) Biosimilar competition — Increased competition from biosimilars threatens Amgen's market share and pricing power for its biologic drugs. (3) Revenue concentration — Amgen's revenue is heavily concentrated in a few key products, making it vulnerable to declines in any one of them. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Amgen Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates AMGN will report consensus revenue of $39.6B (+6.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $19.45 (+35.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $40.7B in revenue.
06When does Amgen Inc. (AMGN) report its next earnings?
Amgen Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-04. Consensus expects EPS of $5.55 and revenue of $9.4B. Over recent quarters, AMGN has beaten EPS estimates 92% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Amgen Inc. generate?
Amgen Inc. (AMGN) generated $8.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 23.1%. AMGN returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.8% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).