Upside case
Bull case
$633+91.9%
AMGN would need investors to value it at roughly 28x earnings — about 14x more generous than today's 15x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Amgen Inc. (AMGN) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
38
analysts
22 bullish · 3 bearish · 38 covering AMGN
Strong Buy
0
Buy
22
Hold
13
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$351
+6.4% vs today
Scenario Range
$227 – $633
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
38
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
14.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $177.9B
AMGN price targets
Three scenarios for where AMGN stock could go
Current
~$330
Confidence
63 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $330
Bear
$227
Base
$464
Bull
$633
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$464+40.9%
At 21x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$227-31.2%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 5x multiple contraction could push AMGN down roughly 31% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Amgen Inc.
AMGN · NASDAQHealthcareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralDecember year-end
Amgen is a global biotechnology company that discovers, develops, manufactures, and markets innovative human therapeutics for serious illnesses. It generates revenue primarily from sales of its branded biologic medicines — with key products including Enbrel, Prolia, Otezla, and Repatha — across therapeutic areas like oncology, inflammation, bone health, and cardiovascular disease. The company's moat lies in its deep expertise in complex biologics manufacturing, extensive patent protection for its innovative therapies, and a robust pipeline of novel drug candidates.
Market Cap
$177.9B
Revenue TTM
$37.2B
Net Income TTM
$7.8B
Net Margin
20.9%
AMGN Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+8.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$6.02/$5.28
Revenue
$9.2B/$8.9B
Q4 2025
EPS
$5.64/$5.02
Revenue
$9.6B/$9.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$5.29/$4.73
Revenue
$9.9B/$9.5B
Q2 2026
EPS
$5.15/$4.77
Revenue
$8.6B/$8.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $6.02/$5.28 | +14.0% | $9.2B/$8.9B | +2.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.64/$5.02 | +12.4% | $9.6B/$9.0B | +6.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $5.29/$4.73 | +11.8% | $9.9B/$9.5B | +4.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $5.15/$4.77 | +8.0% | $8.6B/$8.6B | +0.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$38.9B
+4.5% YoY
FY2
$41.9B
+7.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$19.93
+39.0% YoY
FY2
$20.05
+0.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$8.6B
FCF Margin: 23.1%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
AMGN beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
AMGN Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $35.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Other Products
20.6%
+29.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
71.9%
+10.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Other Products is the largest disclosed segment at 20.6% of FY 2025 revenue, up 29.0% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 71.9%, up 10.7% YoY.
AMGN Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Undervalued
Fair value est. $354 — implies +7.3% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
7.3%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
AMGN
23.2x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
8% discount
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
AMGN
23.2x
vs
Healthcare
22.2x
In line with benchmark
vs AMGN 5Y Avg P/E
Today
23.2x
vs
5Y Average
24.8x
7% discount
Forward PE
14.8x
S&P 500
19.1x
-23%
Healthcare
18.8x
-22%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
23.2x
S&P 500
25.1x
-8%
Healthcare
22.2x
+4%
5Y Avg
24.8x
-7%
PEG Ratio
7.87x
S&P 500
1.72x
+359%
Healthcare
1.53x
+415%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
14.1x
S&P 500
15.2x
-7%
Healthcare
14.0x
+1%
5Y Avg
14.7x
-4%
Price/FCF
22.0x
S&P 500
21.1x
+4%
Healthcare
18.6x
+18%
5Y Avg
17.6x
+25%
Price/Sales
4.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
+55%
Healthcare
2.8x
+73%
5Y Avg
5.0x
-3%
Dividend Yield
2.87%
S&P 500
1.87%
+54%
Healthcare
1.42%
+102%
5Y Avg
3.06%
-6%
| Metric | AMGN | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg AMGN |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 14.8x | 19.1x-23% | 18.8x-22% | — |
| Trailing PE | 23.2x | 25.1x | 22.2x | 24.8x |
| PEG Ratio | 7.87x | 1.72x+359% | 1.53x+415% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.1x | 15.2x | 14.0x | 14.7x |
| Price/FCF | 22.0x | 21.1x | 18.6x+18% | 17.6x+25% |
| Price/Sales | 4.8x | 3.1x+55% | 2.8x+73% | 5.0x |
| Dividend Yield | 2.87% | 1.87% | 1.42% | 3.06% |
AMGN trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolAMGN Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
AMGN generates $8.6B in free cash flow at a 23.1% margin — 14.8% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 2.9% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$37.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+9.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
71.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
31.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
20.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$14.34
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$8.6B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
23.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
14.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
8.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$9.1B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$45.5B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
5.3× FCF
~5.3 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
89.4%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (14.8%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.9%
Dividend
2.9%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$9.45
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
66.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
540M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageAMGN Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Legal & Regulatory
Amgen faces material adverse effects from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and Medicare redesign, which impose drug pricing controls that could reduce sales and operations through the end of the decade. Medicare Part D has already set a price for Enbrel, expected to cut its profitability starting in 2026.
Medium
Competition & Biosimilars
The entry of additional biosimilar and generic competitors threatens Amgen’s market share and pricing power. While Amgen holds early advantage with Pavblu and Wezlana, established products such as Prolia and Xgeva face biosimilar competition, and the success of its diabetes/obesity drug MariTide hinges on differentiation.
Medium
Technology & Innovation
Amgen’s heavy R&D spend carries the risk of clinical trial failures or regulatory rejections, which could delay product launches and hurt financial performance. The commercial success of new drugs like MariTide is critical to offset erosion from older products.
Medium
Production & Supply Chain
Amgen relies on third‑party manufacturers for certain devices and processes; failures or delays in development, modification, or regulatory approval could increase costs and postpone market entry. Expansion of manufacturing capacity in a complex environment also exposes the company to supply‑chain and tariff risks.
Lower
Debt & Capital Structure
Amgen’s net debt was $48.6 billion as of March 2025, and while interest coverage ratios suggest manageable debt, investors should monitor debt levels and potential impacts on capital raising and financial flexibility.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why AMGN Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Robust Pipeline & Product Portfolio
Amgen’s diverse portfolio includes numerous drugs with double‑digit sales growth. High‑value assets span oncology, cardiovascular, inflammation, and rare diseases. Upcoming catalysts include new therapies for atopic dermatitis, a cholesterol‑lowering drug, gastric cancer trial readouts, and positive Phase 3 results for subcutaneous Tepezza.
Strong Revenue & EPS Growth
The company posted a 12% year‑over‑year revenue increase, surpassing market expectations. 2025 forecasts show double‑digit growth in both revenue and EPS, with 14 products exceeding $1 billion in sales. EPS reached $5.29, beating analyst estimates.
Obesity & Cardiovascular Pipeline
Amgen’s obesity and cardiovascular drugs, along with a broad late‑stage pipeline, are expected to lift revenue and cash generation.
AI‑Enabled R&D & Efficiency
AI‑supported research and development, a global footprint, and potential M&A activities enable continuous product launches while managing pricing pressures. Operational execution and a diversified revenue base support sustained earnings momentum.
High Return on Equity
Amgen reports a return on equity of 148.37%, underscoring strong profitability and efficient capital use.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
AMGN Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$329.59
52W Range Position
52%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$261.43
+26.1% from the low
52-Week High
$391.29
-15.8% from the high
1 Month
-3.79%
3 Month
-10.39%
YTD
+0.6%
1 Year
+17.7%
3Y CAGR
+11.7%
5Y CAGR
+5.7%
10Y CAGR
+7.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
AMGN vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
14.8x
vs 15.2x median
-3% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+4.5%
vs +3.5% median
+29% above peer median
Net Margin
20.9%
vs 28.9% median
-28% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AMG AMGN Amgen Inc. | $177.9B | 14.8x | +4.5% | 20.9% | Buy | +6.4% |
GIL GILD Gilead Sciences, Inc. | $166.3B | 15.6x | +3.5% | 28.9% | Buy | +21.3% |
BII BIIB Biogen Inc. | $27.9B | 12.9x | -0.5% | 13.9% | Buy | +11.8% |
REG REGN Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | $73.0B | 15.2x | +5.5% | 29.6% | Buy | +23.3% |
VRT VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated | $107.9B | 22.1x | +9.3% | 35.4% | Buy | +30.1% |
BMY BMY Bristol-Myers Squibb Company | $116.2B | 9.0x | -0.6% | 15.0% | Hold | +8.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
AMGN Dividend and Capital Return
AMGN returns 2.9% total yield, led by a 2.87% dividend, raised 15 consecutive years.
Dividend WatchFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
2.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
2.87%
Payout Ratio
66.5%
How AMGN Splits Its Return
Div 2.87%
Dividend 2.87%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$9.45
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
15Y
3Y Div CAGR
7.1%
5Y Div CAGR
8.3%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
540M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $5.04 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $9.52 | +5.8% | 0.0% | 2.9% |
| 2024 | $9.00 | +5.6% | 0.1% | 3.6% |
| 2023 | $8.52 | +9.8% | 0.0% | 2.9% |
| 2022 | $7.76 | +10.2% | 4.5% | 7.4% |
FAQ
7 questionsAMGN Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Amgen Inc. (AMGN) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Amgen Inc. (AMGN) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 38 analysts covering the stock, 22 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 13 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $351, implying +6.4% from the current price of $330. The bear case scenario is $227 and the bull case is $633.
02What is the AMGN stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for AMGN is $351 based on 38 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $432 (+31.1% from today), and the low-end target is $185 (-43.9%). The base case model target is $464.
03Is Amgen Inc. (AMGN) stock overvalued in 2026?
AMGN trades at 14.8x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Amgen Inc. (AMGN) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for AMGN in 2026 are: (1) Legal & Regulatory — Amgen faces material adverse effects from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and Medicare redesign, which impose drug pricing controls that could reduce sales and operations through the end of the decade. (2) Competition & Biosimilars — The entry of additional biosimilar and generic competitors threatens Amgen’s market share and pricing power. (3) Technology & Innovation — Amgen’s heavy R&D spend carries the risk of clinical trial failures or regulatory rejections, which could delay product launches and hurt financial performance. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Amgen Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates AMGN will report consensus revenue of $38.9B (+4.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $19.93 (+39.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $41.9B in revenue.
06When does Amgen Inc. (AMGN) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for AMGN is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Amgen Inc. generate?
Amgen Inc. (AMGN) generated $8.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 23.1%. AMGN returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.9% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).