Upside case
Bull case
$292+176.4%
GPC would need investors to value it at roughly 38x earnings — about 24x more generous than today's 14x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Genuine Parts Company (GPC) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
22
analysts
9 bullish · 1 bearish · 22 covering GPC
Strong Buy
0
Buy
9
Hold
12
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$142
+34.4% vs today
Scenario Range
$145 – $292
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
22
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
13.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $14.7B
GPC price targets
Three scenarios for where GPC stock could go
Current
~$105
Confidence
48 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $105
Bear
$145
Base
$105
Bull
$292
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$105+0.0%
This is close to how the market is already pricing GPC — at roughly 14x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$145+37.1%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push GPC down roughly 37% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Genuine Parts Company
GPC · NYSEConsumer CyclicalSpecialty RetailDecember year-end
Genuine Parts Company is a leading distributor of automotive and industrial replacement parts through its extensive North American network. It generates revenue primarily from automotive parts distribution (~70% of sales) and industrial parts distribution (~30%), serving both professional repair shops and industrial maintenance customers. The company's competitive advantage lies in its massive scale, dense distribution network, and long-standing relationships with suppliers and customers that create significant barriers to entry.
Market Cap
$14.7B
Revenue TTM
$24.7B
Net Income TTM
$60M
Net Margin
0.2%
GPC Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-2.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 1 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.10/$2.06
Revenue
$6.2B/$6.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.98/$2.02
Revenue
$6.3B/$6.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.55/$1.82
Revenue
$6.0B/$6.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.77/$1.81
Revenue
$6.3B/$6.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.10/$2.06 | +1.9% | $6.2B/$6.1B | +0.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.98/$2.02 | -2.0% | $6.3B/$6.1B | +3.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.55/$1.82 | -14.8% | $6.0B/$6.1B | -1.0% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.77/$1.81 | -2.2% | $6.3B/$6.2B | +1.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$25.7B
+4.1% YoY
FY2
$26.8B
+4.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.63
+504.8% YoY
FY2
$3.43
+30.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$548M
FCF Margin: 2.2%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
GPC beat EPS estimates in 1 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
GPC Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $17.9B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Automotive Parts
53.1%
-35.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
65.0%
+3.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Automotive Parts is the largest disclosed segment at 53.1% of FY 2025 revenue, down 35.5% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 65.0%, up 3.1% YoY.
GPC Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Undervalued
Fair value est. $115 — implies +9.5% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
9.5%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
GPC
224.4x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+790% premium
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
GPC
224.4x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
+1046% premium
vs GPC 5Y Avg P/E
Today
224.4x
vs
5Y Average
19.1x
+1077% premium
Forward PE
13.7x
S&P 500
19.1x
-28%
Consumer Cyclical
15.2x
-10%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
224.4x
S&P 500
25.2x
+790%
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
+1046%
5Y Avg
19.1x
+1077%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Consumer Cyclical
0.95x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
12.8x
S&P 500
15.3x
-16%
Consumer Cyclical
11.4x
+13%
5Y Avg
13.4x
-4%
Price/FCF
34.9x
S&P 500
21.3x
+63%
Consumer Cyclical
15.0x
+132%
5Y Avg
25.6x
+36%
Price/Sales
0.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
-81%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
-15%
5Y Avg
0.9x
-32%
Dividend Yield
3.84%
S&P 500
1.88%
+104%
Consumer Cyclical
2.15%
+79%
5Y Avg
2.74%
+40%
| Metric | GPC | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg GPC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 13.7x | 19.1x-28% | 15.2x | — |
| Trailing PE | 224.4x | 25.2x+790% | 19.6x+1046% | 19.1x+1077% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 0.95x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.8x | 15.3x-16% | 11.4x+13% | 13.4x |
| Price/FCF | 34.9x | 21.3x+63% | 15.0x+132% | 25.6x+36% |
| Price/Sales | 0.6x | 3.1x-81% | 0.7x-15% | 0.9x-32% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.84% | 1.88% | 2.15% | 2.74% |
GPC trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolGPC Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
GPC returns 3.8% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$24.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+4.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
36.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
4.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
0.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$0.44
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$548M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
2.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
8.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
0.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$477M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$7.8B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
14.2× FCF
~14.2 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
1.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.8%
Dividend
3.8%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$4.05
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
855.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
139M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageGPC Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Debt and cash flow risks
Genuine Parts Company carries a substantial debt load of $6.4 billion, coupled with thin cash reserves. This raises significant concerns about financial flexibility, especially during the upcoming separation of its automotive and industrial businesses.
High Risk
Spin-off execution uncertainty
The planned spin-off of GPC's automotive and industrial segments introduces considerable uncertainty and operational risks. Investors may experience a sell-off during the estimated 12-month timeline for completion, testing their patience.
Medium
Reliance on professional market
GPC's reliance on the professional customer end-market exposes it to risks from inflation and potential demand destruction. Any significant downturn in this segment could adversely affect the company's earnings and cash flow.
Medium
Competition in auto segment
Intense competition in the automotive segment poses a risk to GPC's market share and profitability. The company's ability to maintain its competitive edge is crucial for sustaining earnings amid rising costs.
Lower
Non-recurring charges
GPC has faced non-recurring charges, including a pension settlement and impacts from a supplier bankruptcy. While these charges have affected financial results, they are not expected to be a recurring issue.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why GPC Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Revenue Growth Projections
Genuine Parts reported a 3.46% increase in revenue for 2025, reaching $24.30 billion. The company reaffirmed its 2026 financial guidance, expecting 3-5.5% sales growth, with Q1 2026 sales growing 7% year-over-year to $6.3 billion, surpassing Wall Street's consensus by $100 million.
Improving Profitability Metrics
Analysts expect the net margin to increase from approximately 0.3% to 5.0% over the next three years. The company is projecting earnings to grow to about $1.4 billion by 2029, indicating a significant improvement in profitability.
Cost Savings Initiatives
Supporters of the bullish view highlight expected cost savings of over $200 million in 2026. This is anticipated to enhance the company's financial performance and operational efficiency.
Strategic Business Separation
The planned separation of automotive and industrial businesses is viewed as a strategic move that could unlock value and improve focus. This restructuring is expected to lead to tailored capital strategies and potential efficiency gains.
Strong Order Backlog
Motion's order backlog is currently running about 20% higher than at the start of 2025. This backlog could significantly lift profitability as demand translates into sales.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
GPC Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$105.49
52W Range Position
17%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$96.08
+9.8% from the low
52-Week High
$151.57
-30.4% from the high
1 Month
+0.32%
3 Month
-28.97%
YTD
-14.9%
1 Year
-9.9%
3Y CAGR
-15.1%
5Y CAGR
-4.4%
10Y CAGR
+0.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
GPC vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
13.7x
vs 23.8x median
-42% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+4.1%
vs -0.0% median
+20046% above peer median
Net Margin
0.2%
vs 3.7% median
-93% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GPC GPC Genuine Parts Company | $14.7B | 13.7x | +4.1% | 0.2% | Hold | +34.4% |
AZO AZO AutoZone, Inc. | $58.7B | 23.8x | +5.7% | 12.8% | Buy | +19.6% |
ORL ORLY O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. | $79.3B | 29.2x | +5.6% | 14.3% | Buy | +16.9% |
AAP AAP Advance Auto Parts, Inc. | $3.5B | 21.0x | -2.1% | 0.5% | Hold | +1.2% |
LKQ LKQ LKQ Corporation | $7.3B | 9.5x | -0.0% | 3.7% | Buy | +34.4% |
MNR MNRO Monro, Inc. | $534M | 33.1x | -4.1% | -1.1% | Hold | +124.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
GPC Dividend and Capital Return
GPC returns 3.9% total yield, led by a 3.88% dividend, raised 39 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
3.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
3.88%
Payout Ratio
8.6%
How GPC Splits Its Return
Div 3.88%
Dividend 3.88%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$4.05
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
39Y
3Y Div CAGR
4.8%
5Y Div CAGR
5.4%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
139M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.06 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $4.12 | +3.0% | 0.0% | 3.3% |
| 2024 | $4.00 | +5.3% | 0.9% | 4.3% |
| 2023 | $3.80 | +6.1% | 1.3% | 4.0% |
| 2022 | $3.58 | +9.8% | 0.9% | 2.9% |
FAQ
7 questionsGPC Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Genuine Parts Company (GPC) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Genuine Parts Company (GPC) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 22 analysts covering the stock, 9 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 12 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $142, implying +34.4% from the current price of $105. The bear case scenario is $145 and the bull case is $292.
02What is the GPC stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for GPC is $142 based on 22 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $160 (+51.7% from today), and the low-end target is $127 (+20.4%). The base case model target is $105.
03Is Genuine Parts Company (GPC) stock overvalued in 2026?
GPC trades at 13.7x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Genuine Parts Company (GPC) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for GPC in 2026 are: (1) Debt and cash flow risks — Genuine Parts Company carries a substantial debt load of $6. (2) Spin-off execution uncertainty — The planned spin-off of GPC's automotive and industrial segments introduces considerable uncertainty and operational risks. (3) Reliance on professional market — GPC's reliance on the professional customer end-market exposes it to risks from inflation and potential demand destruction. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Genuine Parts Company's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates GPC will report consensus revenue of $25.7B (+4.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.63 (+504.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $26.8B in revenue.
06When does Genuine Parts Company (GPC) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for GPC is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Genuine Parts Company generate?
Genuine Parts Company (GPC) generated $548M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 2.2%. GPC returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.9% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).