Upside case
Bull case
$287+163.9%
GPC would need investors to value it at roughly 37x earnings — about 23x more generous than today's 14x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Genuine Parts Company (GPC) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
22
analysts
9 bullish · 1 bearish · 22 covering GPC
Strong Buy
0
Buy
9
Hold
12
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$142
+31.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$137 – $287
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
22
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
14.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $15.1B
GPC price targets
Three scenarios for where GPC stock could go
Current
~$109
Confidence
45 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $109
Bear
$137
Base
$218
Bull
$287
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$218+100.3%
At 28x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$137+26.2%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push GPC down roughly 26% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Genuine Parts Company
GPC · NYSEConsumer CyclicalSpecialty RetailDecember year-end
Genuine Parts Company is a leading distributor of automotive and industrial replacement parts through its extensive North American network. It generates revenue primarily from automotive parts distribution (~70% of sales) and industrial parts distribution (~30%), serving both professional repair shops and industrial maintenance customers. The company's competitive advantage lies in its massive scale, dense distribution network, and long-standing relationships with suppliers and customers that create significant barriers to entry.
Market Cap
$15.1B
Revenue TTM
$24.7B
Net Income TTM
$60M
Net Margin
0.2%
GPC Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-2.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 1 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.10/$2.06
Revenue
$6.2B/$6.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.98/$2.02
Revenue
$6.3B/$6.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.55/$1.82
Revenue
$6.0B/$6.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.77/$1.81
Revenue
$6.3B/$6.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.10/$2.06 | +1.9% | $6.2B/$6.1B | +0.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.98/$2.02 | -2.0% | $6.3B/$6.1B | +3.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.55/$1.82 | -14.8% | $6.0B/$6.1B | -1.0% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.77/$1.81 | -2.2% | $6.3B/$6.2B | +1.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$25.8B
+4.5% YoY
FY2
$26.7B
+3.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.30
+659.0% YoY
FY2
$4.84
+46.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$548M
FCF Margin: 2.2%
Next Earnings
July 28, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.06
Expected Revenue
$6.4B
GPC beat EPS estimates in 1 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
GPC Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $17.9B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Automotive Parts
53.1%
-35.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
65.0%
+3.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Automotive Parts is the largest disclosed segment at 53.1% of FY 2025 revenue, down 35.5% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 65.0%, up 3.1% YoY.
GPC Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $86 — implies -21.1% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
21.1%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
GPC
231.3x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+846% premium
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
GPC
231.3x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
+993% premium
vs GPC 5Y Avg P/E
Today
231.3x
vs
5Y Average
19.1x
+1113% premium
Forward PE
14.1x
S&P 500
18.8x
-25%
Consumer Cyclical
16.3x
-14%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
231.3x
S&P 500
24.4x
+846%
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
+993%
5Y Avg
19.1x
+1113%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Consumer Cyclical
0.92x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
13.1x
S&P 500
15.2x
-14%
Consumer Cyclical
12.2x
+7%
5Y Avg
13.4x
-2%
Price/FCF
35.9x
S&P 500
20.7x
+74%
Consumer Cyclical
15.6x
+131%
5Y Avg
25.6x
+40%
Price/Sales
0.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
-80%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
-11%
5Y Avg
0.9x
-30%
Dividend Yield
3.73%
S&P 500
1.91%
+95%
Consumer Cyclical
2.17%
+72%
5Y Avg
2.74%
+36%
| Metric | GPC | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg GPC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 14.1x | 18.8x-25% | 16.3x-14% | — |
| Trailing PE | 231.3x | 24.4x+846% | 21.2x+993% | 19.1x+1113% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.92x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.1x | 15.2x-14% | 12.2x | 13.4x |
| Price/FCF | 35.9x | 20.7x+74% | 15.6x+131% | 25.6x+40% |
| Price/Sales | 0.6x | 3.1x-80% | 0.7x-11% | 0.9x-30% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.73% | 1.91% | 2.17% | 2.74% |
GPC trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolGPC Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
GPC returns 3.7% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$24.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+4.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
36.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
4.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
0.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$0.44
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$548M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
2.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
8.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
0.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$477M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$7.8B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
14.2× FCF
~14.2 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
1.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.7%
Dividend
3.7%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$4.05
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
855.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
139M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageGPC Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Business Separation Uncertainty
Announcement of business split creates uncertainty and potential operational disruptions.
High Risk
Growth Headwinds
Facing fundamental growth challenges and downgrades in ratings.
High Risk
Valuation Compression
Stock priced for perfection; any stumble could lead to significant multiple compression.
Medium
Debt Increase
Elevated debt levels pose financial risk and limit flexibility.
Medium
Macroeconomic Sensitivity
Vulnerable to economic slowdowns impacting demand for automotive/industrial parts.
Lower
Competitive Threats
Potential market share erosion from competitors in replacement parts sector.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why GPC Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Business separation strategy
Genuine Parts Company plans to split into two independent publicly traded companies by early 2027, focusing on Global Automotive and Global Industrial operations, aiming to unlock value and provide clearer identities for each business.
Dividend increase
The company raised its annual dividend to US$4.25 per share, signaling confidence in its financial stability and commitment to returning value to shareholders.
M&A activity
Genuine Parts outlined continued M&A spending of US$300 million to US$350 million, indicating a proactive approach to growth and expansion.
Global market presence
With over 65,000 employees worldwide, Genuine Parts is a leading global service provider of automotive and industrial replacement parts, showcasing its extensive market reach and operational scale.
Activist investor influence
Pressure from activist investor Elliott has led to strategic changes, including the planned business separation, highlighting responsiveness to shareholder value creation.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
GPC Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$108.70
52W Range Position
29%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$90.78
+19.7% from the low
52-Week High
$151.57
-28.3% from the high
1 Month
+16.67%
3 Month
+7.92%
YTD
-12.3%
1 Year
-8.6%
3Y CAGR
-12.0%
5Y CAGR
-2.1%
10Y CAGR
+1.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
GPC vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
14.1x
vs 20.5x median
-31% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+4.5%
vs +4.4% median
+1% above peer median
Net Margin
0.2%
vs 3.7% median
-93% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GPC GPC Genuine Parts Company | $15.1B | 14.1x | +4.5% | 0.2% | Hold | +31.0% |
AZO AZO AutoZone, Inc. | $50.2B | 20.2x | +4.4% | 12.4% | Buy | +27.6% |
ORL ORLY O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. | $72.7B | 26.6x | +7.3% | 14.3% | Buy | +27.4% |
AAP AAP Advance Auto Parts, Inc. | $3.6B | 20.5x | -0.3% | 0.5% | Hold | -0.8% |
LKQ LKQ LKQ Corporation | $6.6B | 8.7x | +5.2% | 3.7% | Buy | +31.8% |
MNR MNRO Monro, Inc. | $467M | 28.5x | +1.1% | 0.2% | Hold | +80.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
GPC Dividend and Capital Return
GPC returns 3.7% total yield, led by a 3.73% dividend, raised 43 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
3.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
3.73%
Payout Ratio
8.6%
How GPC Splits Its Return
Div 3.73%
Dividend 3.73%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$4.05
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
43Y
3Y Div CAGR
4.8%
5Y Div CAGR
5.4%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
139M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.13 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $4.12 | +3.0% | 0.0% | 3.3% |
| 2024 | $4.00 | +5.3% | 0.9% | 4.3% |
| 2023 | $3.80 | +6.1% | 1.3% | 4.0% |
| 2022 | $3.58 | +9.8% | 0.9% | 2.9% |
FAQ
7 questionsGPC Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Genuine Parts Company (GPC) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Genuine Parts Company (GPC) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 22 analysts covering the stock, 9 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 12 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $142, implying +31.0% from the current price of $109. The bear case scenario is $137 and the bull case is $287.
02What is the GPC stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for GPC is $142 based on 22 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $160 (+47.2% from today), and the low-end target is $127 (+16.8%). The base case model target is $218.
03Is Genuine Parts Company (GPC) stock overvalued in 2026?
GPC trades at 14.1x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Genuine Parts Company (GPC) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for GPC in 2026 are: (1) Business Separation Uncertainty — Announcement of business split creates uncertainty and potential operational disruptions. (2) Growth Headwinds — Facing fundamental growth challenges and downgrades in ratings. (3) Valuation Compression — Stock priced for perfection; any stumble could lead to significant multiple compression. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Genuine Parts Company's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates GPC will report consensus revenue of $25.8B (+4.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.30 (+659.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $26.7B in revenue.
06When does Genuine Parts Company (GPC) report its next earnings?
Genuine Parts Company is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-28. Consensus expects EPS of $2.06 and revenue of $6.4B. Over recent quarters, GPC has beaten EPS estimates 58% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Genuine Parts Company generate?
Genuine Parts Company (GPC) generated $548M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 2.2%. GPC returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.7% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).