Upside case
Bull case
$5404+52.6%
AZO would need investors to value it at roughly 36x earnings — about 13x more generous than today's 24x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
AutoZone, Inc. (AZO) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
45
analysts
33 bullish · 0 bearish · 45 covering AZO
Strong Buy
1
Buy
32
Hold
12
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$4236
+19.6% vs today
Scenario Range
$3101 – $5404
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
45
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
23.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $58.7B
AZO price targets
Three scenarios for where AZO stock could go
Current
~$3541
Confidence
72 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $3541
Bear
$3101
Base
$4260
Bull
$5404
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$4260+20.3%
At 29x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$3101-12.4%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 3x multiple contraction could push AZO down roughly 12% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
AutoZone, Inc.
AZO · NYSEConsumer CyclicalAuto - PartsAugust year-end
AutoZone is a leading retailer of automotive replacement parts and accessories for do-it-yourself customers and professional installers. It generates revenue primarily through retail store sales of parts, maintenance items, and accessories — with commercial sales to professional mechanics representing a growing segment. The company's competitive advantage lies in its extensive store network, strong brand recognition, and efficient supply chain that ensures broad product availability.
Market Cap
$58.7B
Revenue TTM
$19.3B
Net Income TTM
$2.5B
Net Margin
12.8%
AZO Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
25%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+0.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 1 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$35.36/$37.11
Revenue
$4.5B/$4.4B
Q3 2025
EPS
$48.71/$50.73
Revenue
$6.2B/$6.3B
Q4 2025
EPS
$31.04/$32.75
Revenue
$4.6B/$4.6B
Q1 2026
EPS
$27.63/$27.15
Revenue
$4.3B/$4.3B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $35.36/$37.11 | -4.7% | $4.5B/$4.4B | +1.0% |
| Q3 2025 | $48.71/$50.73 | -4.0% | $6.2B/$6.3B | -0.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $31.04/$32.75 | -5.2% | $4.6B/$4.6B | -0.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $27.63/$27.15 | +1.8% | $4.3B/$4.3B | -0.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$20.4B
+5.7% YoY
FY2
$21.6B
+5.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$152.00
+5.5% YoY
FY2
$174.28
+14.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.9B
FCF Margin: 9.6%
Next Earnings
May 26, 2026
Expected EPS
$36.09
Expected Revenue
$4.9B
AZO beat EPS estimates in 1 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
AZO Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $18.9B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Auto Parts Locations
100.0%
+4.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
88.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Auto Parts Locations is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 4.3% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 88.0%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
AZO Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Undervalued
Fair value est. $4464 — implies +24.2% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
24.2%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
AZO
24.4x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
In line with benchmark
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
AZO
24.4x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.3x
+27% premium
vs AZO 5Y Avg P/E
Today
24.4x
vs
5Y Average
20.7x
+18% premium
Forward PE
23.8x
S&P 500
19.1x
+25%
Consumer Cyclical
15.1x
+57%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
24.4x
S&P 500
25.1x
-3%
Consumer Cyclical
19.3x
+27%
5Y Avg
20.7x
+18%
PEG Ratio
1.63x
S&P 500
1.72x
-5%
Consumer Cyclical
0.91x
+78%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
16.8x
S&P 500
15.2x
+10%
Consumer Cyclical
11.3x
+48%
5Y Avg
15.5x
+8%
Price/FCF
32.8x
S&P 500
21.1x
+56%
Consumer Cyclical
14.6x
+125%
5Y Avg
24.3x
+35%
Price/Sales
3.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
-1%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+333%
5Y Avg
2.9x
+5%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.87%
—
Consumer Cyclical
2.23%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | AZO | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg AZO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 23.8x | 19.1x+25% | 15.1x+57% | — |
| Trailing PE | 24.4x | 25.1x | 19.3x+27% | 20.7x+18% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.63x | 1.72x | 0.91x+78% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.8x | 15.2x+10% | 11.3x+48% | 15.5x |
| Price/FCF | 32.8x | 21.1x+56% | 14.6x+125% | 24.3x+35% |
| Price/Sales | 3.1x | 3.1x | 0.7x+333% | 2.9x |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.87% | 2.23% | — |
AZO trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolAZO Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
AZO generates $1.9B in free cash flow at a 9.6% margin — 34.0% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 2.7% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$19.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+3.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
52.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
18.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
12.8%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$144.08
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.9B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
9.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
34.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
13.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$272M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$12.0B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
6.5× FCF
~6.5 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
—
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.7%
Dividend
—
Buyback
2.7%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.6B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
17M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageAZO Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Labor Costs & Workforce
AutoZone’s largest operating expense is its workforce. Rising prevailing wage rates, high turnover in hourly positions, and the potential for unionization among domestic employees could drive up training, retention, and benefit costs, squeezing margins.
High Risk
Supply Chain & Vendor Dependence
The company relies on domestic and international vendors for quality merchandise at competitive prices. Global economic and geopolitical conditions—tariffs, inflation, rising interest rates, and supply‑chain disruptions—can increase sourcing costs and reduce inventory availability.
Medium
Demand Fluctuations
AutoZone’s sales are tied to vehicle usage patterns. Higher gas prices can reduce driving, lowering wear‑and‑tear and repair demand, while higher energy costs may push consumers to keep older vehicles, increasing maintenance needs.
Medium
Commercial Segment Margins
A shift in the sales mix toward the commercial segment, which typically has lower margins than the DIY segment, could pressure overall profitability if the company cannot maintain its current margin profile.
Medium
International FX & Expansion
As AutoZone expands globally, currency fluctuations can materially impact reported earnings and influence strategic decisions about international expansion, potentially eroding profitability.
Medium
Electric Vehicle Adoption
The growing adoption of electric vehicles poses a long‑term risk because EVs generally require less routine maintenance. However, the complexity of EV technology may also create demand for new parts and services, altering the product mix.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why AZO Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
10‑Year CAGR & Robust Margins
AutoZone has delivered a 10‑year compound annual growth rate of 18.1%, underscoring sustained revenue expansion. The company’s operating metrics are equally strong, with a 29.4% return on invested capital, 53.1% gross margin and 20.1% operating margin. Earnings are projected to grow 13.35% next year, and the firm has consistently outperformed estimates for the past four years.
Strategic Mega‑Hub Expansion
AutoZone is actively expanding its store footprint, targeting new “mega hub” locations and international growth in Mexico and Brazil. This expansion is designed to improve inventory availability, drive revenue growth, and enhance sales margins across its network.
Domestic Market Share Growth
The company has achieved notable market share gains, reflected in increased same‑store transaction counts and robust growth in its Domestic Commercial/DIFM business segment.
Consistent Share Repurchases
AutoZone has a long history of significant share repurchases, returning substantial capital to shareholders over the years.
Low‑Beta Stability
Despite its strong performance, AutoZone remains a low‑volatility stock, with a beta of just 0.54, indicating the potential for solid returns without excessive risk.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
AZO Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$3540.92
52W Range Position
28%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$3210.72
+10.3% from the low
52-Week High
$4388.11
-19.3% from the high
1 Month
+2.98%
3 Month
-1.78%
YTD
+7.2%
1 Year
-6.2%
3Y CAGR
+9.6%
5Y CAGR
+19.2%
10Y CAGR
+16.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
AZO vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
23.8x
vs 20.6x median
+15% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.7%
vs +0.6% median
+863% above peer median
Net Margin
12.8%
vs 0.5% median
+2388% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AZO AZO AutoZone, Inc. | $58.7B | 23.8x | +5.7% | 12.8% | Buy | +19.6% |
ORL ORLY O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. | $79.5B | 29.3x | +5.6% | 14.3% | Buy | +16.6% |
AAP AAP Advance Auto Parts, Inc. | $3.4B | 20.6x | -2.1% | 0.5% | Hold | +3.3% |
GPC GPC Genuine Parts Company | $14.5B | 13.6x | +4.1% | 0.2% | Hold | +35.9% |
MNR MNRO Monro, Inc. | $514M | 31.8x | -4.1% | -1.1% | Hold | +133.6% |
MUS MUSA Murphy USA Inc. | $11.2B | 20.6x | +0.6% | 2.8% | Hold | -16.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
AZO Dividend and Capital Return
AZO returns 2.7% annually — null% through dividends and 2.7% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
2.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
2.7%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.6B
Estimated Shares Retired
445.7K
Approx. Share Reduction
2.6%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
17M
At 2.6%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsAZO Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is AutoZone, Inc. (AZO) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
AutoZone, Inc. (AZO) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 45 analysts covering the stock, 33 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 12 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $4236, implying +19.6% from the current price of $3541. The bear case scenario is $3101 and the bull case is $5404.
02What is the AZO stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for AZO is $4236 based on 45 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $4800 (+35.6% from today), and the low-end target is $3600 (+1.7%). The base case model target is $4260.
03Is AutoZone, Inc. (AZO) stock overvalued in 2026?
AZO trades at 23.8x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for AutoZone, Inc. (AZO) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for AZO in 2026 are: (1) Labor Costs & Workforce — AutoZone’s largest operating expense is its workforce. (2) Supply Chain & Vendor Dependence — The company relies on domestic and international vendors for quality merchandise at competitive prices. (3) Demand Fluctuations — AutoZone’s sales are tied to vehicle usage patterns. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is AutoZone, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates AZO will report consensus revenue of $20.4B (+5.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $152.00 (+5.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $21.6B in revenue.
06When does AutoZone, Inc. (AZO) report its next earnings?
AutoZone, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-26. Consensus expects EPS of $36.09 and revenue of $4.9B. Over recent quarters, AZO has beaten EPS estimates 50% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does AutoZone, Inc. generate?
AutoZone, Inc. (AZO) generated $1.9B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 9.6%. AZO returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($1.6B TTM).