Upside case
Bull case
$5187+69.2%
AZO would need investors to value it at roughly 34x earnings — about 14x more generous than today's 20x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
AutoZone, Inc. (AZO) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
45
analysts
33 bullish · 0 bearish · 45 covering AZO
Strong Buy
1
Buy
32
Hold
12
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$3909
+27.6% vs today
Scenario Range
$2480 – $5187
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
45
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
20.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $50.2B
AZO price targets
Three scenarios for where AZO stock could go
Current
~$3064
Confidence
62 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $3064
Bear
$2480
Base
$3936
Bull
$5187
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$3936+28.4%
At 26x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$2480-19.1%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 4x multiple contraction could push AZO down roughly 19% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
AutoZone, Inc.
AZO · NYSEConsumer CyclicalAuto - PartsAugust year-end
AutoZone is a leading retailer of automotive replacement parts and accessories for do-it-yourself customers and professional installers. It generates revenue primarily through retail store sales of parts, maintenance items, and accessories — with commercial sales to professional mechanics representing a growing segment. The company's competitive advantage lies in its extensive store network, strong brand recognition, and efficient supply chain that ensures broad product availability.
Market Cap
$50.2B
Revenue TTM
$20.0B
Net Income TTM
$2.5B
Net Margin
12.4%
AZO Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
25%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+0.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$48.71/$50.73
Revenue
$6.2B/$6.3B
Q4 2025
EPS
$31.04/$32.75
Revenue
$4.6B/$4.6B
Q1 2026
EPS
$27.63/$27.15
Revenue
$4.3B/$4.3B
Q2 2026
EPS
$38.07/$36.22
Revenue
$4.8B/$4.9B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $48.71/$50.73 | -4.0% | $6.2B/$6.3B | -0.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $31.04/$32.75 | -5.2% | $4.6B/$4.6B | -0.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $27.63/$27.15 | +1.8% | $4.3B/$4.3B | -0.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $38.07/$36.22 | +5.1% | $4.8B/$4.9B | -0.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$20.9B
+4.4% YoY
FY2
$21.8B
+4.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$159.77
+8.7% YoY
FY2
$182.99
+14.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.2B
FCF Margin: 5.9%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
AZO beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
AZO Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $18.9B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Auto Parts Locations
100.0%
+4.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
88.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Auto Parts Locations is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 4.3% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 88.0%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
AZO Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $6492 — implies +111.9% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
111.9%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
AZO
21.2x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
13% discount
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
AZO
21.2x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
In line with benchmark
vs AZO 5Y Avg P/E
Today
21.2x
vs
5Y Average
20.7x
In line with benchmark
Forward PE
20.2x
S&P 500
18.8x
+8%
Consumer Cyclical
16.3x
+24%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
21.2x
S&P 500
24.4x
-13%
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
0%
5Y Avg
20.7x
+2%
PEG Ratio
1.41x
S&P 500
1.66x
-15%
Consumer Cyclical
0.92x
+52%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
14.7x
S&P 500
15.2x
-3%
Consumer Cyclical
12.2x
+21%
5Y Avg
15.5x
-5%
Price/FCF
28.0x
S&P 500
20.7x
+35%
Consumer Cyclical
15.6x
+80%
5Y Avg
24.3x
+15%
Price/Sales
2.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
-14%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+279%
5Y Avg
2.9x
-10%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Consumer Cyclical
2.17%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | AZO | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg AZO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 20.2x | 18.8x | 16.3x+24% | — |
| Trailing PE | 21.2x | 24.4x-13% | 21.2x | 20.7x |
| PEG Ratio | 1.41x | 1.66x-15% | 0.92x+52% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.7x | 15.2x | 12.2x+21% | 15.5x |
| Price/FCF | 28.0x | 20.7x+35% | 15.6x+80% | 24.3x+15% |
| Price/Sales | 2.6x | 3.1x-14% | 0.7x+279% | 2.9x-10% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 2.17% | — |
AZO trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolAZO Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
AZO 34.0% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage — returns 3.1% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$20.0B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+5.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
51.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
18.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
12.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$147.05
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.2B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
5.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
34.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
12.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$272M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$12.0B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
10.2× FCF
~10.2 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
—
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.1%
Dividend
—
Buyback
3.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.6B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
16M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageAZO Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Stock price decline
AI models forecast a -4.0% decline in AZO stock price by 2026, indicating potential bearish sentiment.
Medium
Production risks
AutoZone Inc has reported 22 risks, with Production being the top risk category, signaling operational challenges.
Medium
Competitive pressures
The rise of online and mobile ordering solutions like Shop Anywhere may intensify competition in the auto parts retail sector.
Lower
Market saturation
With over 6,300 locations nationwide, AutoZone may face limited growth opportunities due to high market penetration.
Lower
Economic sensitivity
AutoZone's reliance on aging US vehicles and DIY repairs makes it vulnerable to economic downturns affecting consumer spending.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why AZO Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Extensive retail footprint
AutoZone operates over 6,300 locations nationwide, providing widespread accessibility for customers.
Strong DIY repair support
AutoZone offers top-quality auto parts and DIY repair advice, catering to the needs of car owners.
Convenient delivery options
AutoZone provides Free Next Day Delivery and the Shop Anywhere feature, enhancing customer convenience.
Leading market position
AutoZone is the largest retailer of aftermarket automotive parts and accessories in the United States.
Bullish analyst sentiment
Multiple bullish theses from analysts highlight AutoZone's strong fundamentals and growth potential.
Fleet and mechanic focus
AutoZone's Shop Anywhere feature caters to mechanics and fleets, addressing their mobile needs.
Investor-friendly policies
AutoZone maintains a robust Investor Relations website, providing transparency and information for stakeholders.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
AZO Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$3064.48
52W Range Position
9%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$2928.11
+4.7% from the low
52-Week High
$4388.11
-30.2% from the high
1 Month
-8.95%
3 Month
-8.85%
YTD
-7.2%
1 Year
-15.0%
3Y CAGR
+7.7%
5Y CAGR
+17.2%
10Y CAGR
+15.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
AZO vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
20.2x
vs 20.5x median
-1% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+4.4%
vs +1.9% median
+133% above peer median
Net Margin
12.4%
vs 0.5% median
+2333% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AZO AZO AutoZone, Inc. | $50.2B | 20.2x | +4.4% | 12.4% | Buy | +27.6% |
ORL ORLY O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. | $72.7B | 26.6x | +7.3% | 14.3% | Buy | +27.4% |
AAP AAP Advance Auto Parts, Inc. | $3.6B | 20.5x | -0.3% | 0.5% | Hold | -0.8% |
GPC GPC Genuine Parts Company | $15.1B | 14.1x | +4.5% | 0.2% | Hold | +31.0% |
MNR MNRO Monro, Inc. | $467M | 28.5x | +1.1% | 0.2% | Hold | +80.1% |
MUS MUSA Murphy USA Inc. | $10.2B | 17.3x | +1.9% | 2.8% | Hold | -4.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
AZO Dividend and Capital Return
AZO returns 3.1% annually — null% through dividends and 3.1% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
3.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.1%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.6B
Estimated Shares Retired
515.0K
Approx. Share Reduction
3.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
16M
At 3.1%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsAZO Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is AutoZone, Inc. (AZO) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
AutoZone, Inc. (AZO) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 45 analysts covering the stock, 33 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 12 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $3909, implying +27.6% from the current price of $3064. The bear case scenario is $2480 and the bull case is $5187.
02What is the AZO stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for AZO is $3909 based on 45 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $4800 (+56.6% from today), and the low-end target is $3200 (+4.4%). The base case model target is $3936.
03Is AutoZone, Inc. (AZO) stock overvalued in 2026?
AZO trades at 20.2x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for AutoZone, Inc. (AZO) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for AZO in 2026 are: (1) Stock price decline — AI models forecast a -4. (2) Production risks — AutoZone Inc has reported 22 risks, with Production being the top risk category, signaling operational challenges. (3) Competitive pressures — The rise of online and mobile ordering solutions like Shop Anywhere may intensify competition in the auto parts retail sector. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is AutoZone, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates AZO will report consensus revenue of $20.9B (+4.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $159.77 (+8.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $21.8B in revenue.
06When does AutoZone, Inc. (AZO) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for AZO is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does AutoZone, Inc. generate?
AutoZone, Inc. (AZO) generated $1.2B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 5.9%. AZO returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($1.6B TTM).