Upside case
Bull case
$420+47.9%
AAPL would need investors to value it at roughly 49x earnings — about 16x more generous than today's 33x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Apple Inc. (AAPL) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
110
analysts
70 bullish · 7 bearish · 110 covering AAPL
Strong Buy
1
Buy
69
Hold
33
Sell
7
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$317
+11.6% vs today
Scenario Range
$227 – $420
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
110
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
33.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $4.17T
AAPL price targets
Three scenarios for where AAPL stock could go
Current
~$284
Confidence
72 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $284
Bear
$227
Base
$363
Bull
$420
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$363+27.8%
At 43x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$227-20.1%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 7x multiple contraction could push AAPL down roughly 20% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Apple Inc.
AAPL · NASDAQTechnologyConsumer ElectronicsSeptember year-end
Apple is a technology giant that designs and sells premium consumer electronics — most famously the iPhone — along with related software and services. It generates revenue primarily from hardware sales (roughly 80% of total) and a fast-growing services segment (around 20%) that includes the App Store, subscriptions, and licensing. Its key competitive advantage is a powerful ecosystem that locks users into its hardware, software, and services through seamless integration and high switching costs.
Market Cap
$4.17T
Revenue TTM
$451.4B
Net Income TTM
$122.6B
Net Margin
27.2%
AAPL Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+4.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.57/$1.44
Revenue
$94.0B/$89.6B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.85/$1.73
Revenue
$102.5B/$102.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.85/$2.67
Revenue
$143.8B/$138.4B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.01/$1.95
Revenue
$111.2B/$109.5B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.57/$1.44 | +9.0% | $94.0B/$89.6B | +5.0% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.85/$1.73 | +6.9% | $102.5B/$102.2B | +0.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.85/$2.67 | +6.7% | $143.8B/$138.4B | +3.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.01/$1.95 | +3.1% | $111.2B/$109.5B | +1.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$469.6B
+4.0% YoY
FY2
$501.0B
+6.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$8.68
+4.6% YoY
FY2
$9.53
+9.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$129.2B
FCF Margin: 28.6%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
AAPL beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
AAPL Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $416.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
iPhone
50.4%
+4.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Americas Segment
42.9%
+6.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
iPhone is the largest disclosed segment at 50.4% of FY 2025 revenue, up 4.2% YoY.
Americas Segment is the largest reported region at 42.9%, up 6.8% YoY.
AAPL Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Overvalued
Fair value est. $216 — implies -22.8% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
22.8%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
AAPL
38.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+52% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
AAPL
38.1x
vs
Technology
26.7x
+42% premium
vs AAPL 5Y Avg P/E
Today
38.1x
vs
5Y Average
30.1x
+27% premium
Forward PE
33.4x
S&P 500
19.1x
+75%
Technology
22.1x
+51%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
38.1x
S&P 500
25.1x
+52%
Technology
26.7x
+42%
5Y Avg
30.1x
+27%
PEG Ratio
2.13x
S&P 500
1.72x
+24%
Technology
1.52x
+40%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
29.4x
S&P 500
15.2x
+93%
Technology
17.5x
+68%
5Y Avg
23.4x
+25%
Price/FCF
42.2x
S&P 500
21.1x
+100%
Technology
19.5x
+116%
5Y Avg
29.4x
+44%
Price/Sales
10.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
+221%
Technology
2.4x
+310%
5Y Avg
7.7x
+31%
Dividend Yield
0.36%
S&P 500
1.87%
-81%
Technology
1.16%
-69%
5Y Avg
0.52%
-30%
| Metric | AAPL | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg AAPL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 33.4x | 19.1x+75% | 22.1x+51% | — |
| Trailing PE | 38.1x | 25.1x+52% | 26.7x+42% | 30.1x+27% |
| PEG Ratio | 2.13x | 1.72x+24% | 1.52x+40% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 29.4x | 15.2x+93% | 17.5x+68% | 23.4x+25% |
| Price/FCF | 42.2x | 21.1x+100% | 19.5x+116% | 29.4x+44% |
| Price/Sales | 10.0x | 3.1x+221% | 2.4x+310% | 7.7x+31% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.36% | 1.87% | 1.16% | 0.52% |
AAPL trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolAAPL Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
AAPL generates $129.2B in free cash flow at a 28.6% margin — 67.4% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 2.5% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$451.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+12.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
47.9%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
32.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
27.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$8.30
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$129.2B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
28.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
67.4%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
34.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$35.9B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$76.4B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.6× FCF
~0.6 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
146.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.5%
Dividend
0.4%
Buyback
2.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$90.7B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.03
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
13.8%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
14.7B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageAAPL Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Product Dependence
Apple’s revenue is heavily tied to the success of its flagship iPhone. A misjudgment in consumer demand, a less compelling launch, or a slowdown in upgrade cycles could materially reduce top‑line growth.
High Risk
Regulatory & Antitrust Pressure
Apple faces increasing scrutiny from governments worldwide over its App Store practices and alleged monopolistic behavior. Antitrust investigations in the US and EU could force changes to its business model and ecosystem, impacting profitability.
High Risk
Supply Chain Vulnerabilities
Apple’s global supply chain is heavily concentrated in China, making it susceptible to disruptions from geopolitical events, trade wars, tariffs, export controls, and health crises such as pandemics.
High Risk
Geopolitical Tensions & China Exposure
China is a critical market for both manufacturing and sales. Political tensions, trade disputes, and shifting consumer sentiment in China pose significant risks to Apple’s operations and revenue.
Medium
Macroeconomic Factors
Inflation, recession fears, rising interest rates, and weakening consumer spending can dampen demand for Apple’s premium‑priced products. Currency fluctuations also affect international revenue.
Medium
Competition
Apple competes with aggressive players like Samsung, Google, and Microsoft, who often price aggressively and can quickly imitate features, potentially eroding market share.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why AAPL Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Robust Financial Performance & Growth
Apple reported record Q1 revenue of $143.8 billion, a 15.65% year‑over‑year increase, and earnings per share that beat consensus estimates. The company’s revenue is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 9% over the next three years, with net profit margin, ROA, and ROIC all in the top 10% of the industry.
Services Ecosystem Driving Margins
The services segment—App Store, Apple Music, Apple Pay—generated revenue up 14% year‑over‑year in Q1 2026. It operates at a gross margin of 76.5%, far higher than the 40.7% margin on products, and the growing installed base locks customers into Apple’s ecosystem.
AI‑Enabled Product Innovation Catalyst
Apple’s “Apple Intelligence” on‑device AI is positioned to spur a new iPhone replacement cycle, enhancing device performance and value. The anticipated launch of a foldable iPhone is also cited as a significant catalyst for future hardware revenue growth.
Strategic Share Buybacks & EPS Boost
Apple has a substantial cash pile and has been actively repurchasing shares, which reduces the number of outstanding shares and boosts earnings per share. The buyback program is a key driver of shareholder value and supports the company’s strong financial footing.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
AAPL Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$284.18
52W Range Position
95%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$193.25
+47.1% from the low
52-Week High
$288.61
-1.5% from the high
1 Month
+9.78%
3 Month
+3.00%
YTD
+4.9%
1 Year
+42.9%
3Y CAGR
+17.9%
5Y CAGR
+17.3%
10Y CAGR
+28.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
AAPL vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
33.4x
vs 24.8x median
+35% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+4.0%
vs +10.0% median
-60% below peer median
Net Margin
27.2%
vs 32.8% median
-17% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AAP AAPL Apple Inc. | $4.17T | 33.4x | +4.0% | 27.2% | Buy | +11.6% |
MSF MSFT Microsoft Corporation | $3.06T | 24.8x | +7.0% | 39.3% | Buy | +34.1% |
GOO GOOGL Alphabet Inc. | $4.70T | 28.9x | +14.1% | 37.9% | Buy | +4.6% |
AMZ AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. | $2.94T | 35.1x | +10.0% | 12.2% | Buy | +12.2% |
MET META Meta Platforms, Inc. | $1.53T | 20.0x | +16.1% | 32.8% | Buy | +35.8% |
SON SONY Sony Group Corporation | $120.0B | 0.1x | +3.5% | 9.2% | Buy | +49.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
AAPL Dividend and Capital Return
AAPL returns capital mainly through $90.7B/year in buybacks (2.2% buyback yield), with a modest 0.36% dividend — combining for 2.5% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 14 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
2.2%
Dividend Yield
0.36%
Payout Ratio
13.8%
How AAPL Splits Its Return
Div 0.36%
Buyback 2.2%
Dividend 0.36%Buybacks 2.2%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.03
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
14Y
3Y Div CAGR
4.2%
5Y Div CAGR
5.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$90.7B
Estimated Shares Retired
319M
Approx. Share Reduction
2.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
14.7B
At 2.2%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.26 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.03 | +4.0% | 2.4% | 2.8% |
| 2024 | $0.99 | +4.2% | 2.7% | 3.1% |
| 2023 | $0.95 | +4.4% | 2.9% | 3.4% |
| 2022 | $0.91 | +5.2% | 3.6% | 4.2% |
FAQ
7 questionsAAPL Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Apple Inc. (AAPL) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Apple Inc. (AAPL) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 110 analysts covering the stock, 70 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 33 rate it Hold, and 7 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $317, implying +11.6% from the current price of $284. The bear case scenario is $227 and the bull case is $420.
02What is the AAPL stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for AAPL is $317 based on 110 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $350 (+23.2% from today), and the low-end target is $253 (-11.0%). The base case model target is $363.
03Is Apple Inc. (AAPL) stock overvalued in 2026?
AAPL trades at 33.4x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Apple Inc. (AAPL) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for AAPL in 2026 are: (1) Product Dependence — Apple’s revenue is heavily tied to the success of its flagship iPhone. (2) Regulatory & Antitrust Pressure — Apple faces increasing scrutiny from governments worldwide over its App Store practices and alleged monopolistic behavior. (3) Supply Chain Vulnerabilities — Apple’s global supply chain is heavily concentrated in China, making it susceptible to disruptions from geopolitical events, trade wars, tariffs, export controls, and health crises such as pandemics. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Apple Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates AAPL will report consensus revenue of $469.6B (+4.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $8.68 (+4.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $501.0B in revenue.
06When does Apple Inc. (AAPL) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for AAPL is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Apple Inc. generate?
Apple Inc. (AAPL) generated $129.2B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 28.6%. AAPL returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.4% yield) and share repurchases ($90.7B TTM).