Upside case
Bull case
$44-12.9%
The bull case prices GSK at 9x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
GSK plc (GSK) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
29
analysts
9 bullish · 4 bearish · 29 covering GSK
Strong Buy
0
Buy
9
Hold
16
Sell
4
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$52
+4.1% vs today
Scenario Range
$13 – $44
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
29
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
10.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $101.3B
GSK price targets
Three scenarios for where GSK stock could go
Current
~$50
Confidence
54 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $50
Bear
$13
Base
$24
Bull
$44
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$24-51.5%
At 5x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$13-74.2%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 8x multiple contraction could push GSK down roughly 74% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
GSK plc
GSK · NYSEHealthcareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralDecember year-end
GSK is a global pharmaceutical company that develops and manufactures vaccines and prescription medicines for infectious diseases, respiratory conditions, and oncology. It generates revenue primarily from vaccine sales—particularly for shingles and respiratory viruses—and specialty medicines for HIV and respiratory diseases, with vaccines contributing roughly 40% of total sales. The company's competitive advantage lies in its deep expertise in vaccine development—one of the industry's strongest vaccine portfolios—and established commercial infrastructure in both developed and emerging markets.
Market Cap
$101.3B
Revenue TTM
$33.3B
Net Income TTM
$6.4B
Net Margin
19.2%
GSK Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
91%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
91%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+10.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.96/—
Revenue
$10.9B/—
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.48/$1.26
Revenue
$8.5B/$8.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.68/$0.64
Revenue
$11.8B/$11.4B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.24/$1.16
Revenue
$10.3B/$10.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.96/— | — | $10.9B/— | — |
| Q4 2025 | $1.48/$1.26 | +17.5% | $8.5B/$8.5B | +0.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.68/$0.64 | +6.3% | $11.8B/$11.4B | +3.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.24/$1.16 | +6.9% | $10.3B/$10.2B | +0.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$36.4B
+9.2% YoY
FY2
$38.1B
+4.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.50
+11.3% YoY
FY2
$3.65
+4.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$7.4B
FCF Margin: 22.1%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
GSK beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
GSK Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $15.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
International
54.7%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
International is the largest reported region at 54.7%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
GSK Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Undervalued
Fair value est. $61 — implies +18.9% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
18.9%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
GSK
6.7x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
73% discount
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
GSK
6.7x
vs
Healthcare
22.2x
70% discount
vs GSK 5Y Avg P/E
Today
6.7x
vs
5Y Average
16.5x
60% discount
Forward PE
10.4x
S&P 500
19.1x
-45%
Healthcare
18.8x
-45%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
6.7x
S&P 500
25.1x
-73%
Healthcare
22.2x
-70%
5Y Avg
16.5x
-60%
PEG Ratio
0.47x
S&P 500
1.72x
-73%
Healthcare
1.53x
-69%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
8.3x
S&P 500
15.2x
-45%
Healthcare
14.0x
-41%
5Y Avg
11.0x
-24%
Price/FCF
12.8x
S&P 500
21.1x
-39%
Healthcare
18.6x
-31%
5Y Avg
12.9x
-1%
Price/Sales
2.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
-27%
Healthcare
2.8x
-19%
5Y Avg
2.3x
-2%
Dividend Yield
6.57%
S&P 500
1.87%
+252%
Healthcare
1.42%
+362%
5Y Avg
4.73%
+39%
| Metric | GSK | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg GSK |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 10.4x | 19.1x-45% | 18.8x-45% | — |
| Trailing PE | 6.7x | 25.1x-73% | 22.2x-70% | 16.5x-60% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.47x | 1.72x-73% | 1.53x-69% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.3x | 15.2x-45% | 14.0x-41% | 11.0x-24% |
| Price/FCF | 12.8x | 21.1x-39% | 18.6x-31% | 12.9x |
| Price/Sales | 2.3x | 3.1x-27% | 2.8x-19% | 2.3x |
| Dividend Yield | 6.57% | 1.87% | 1.42% | 4.73% |
GSK trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolGSK Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
GSK generates $7.4B in free cash flow at a 22.1% margin — 22.1% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 6.6% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$33.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+5.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
72.9%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
26.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
19.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.14
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$7.4B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
22.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
22.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
8.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$3.4B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$14.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.9× FCF
~1.9 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
31.5%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
6.6%
Dividend
6.6%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.44
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
43.9%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
2.0B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageGSK Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Product Liability
Unanticipated side effects of GSK’s drugs after widespread market introduction could trigger significant product liability lawsuits, potentially resulting in large settlements or damages. Such litigation would directly impact earnings and could erode investor confidence.
High Risk
Compliance & Misconduct
Past unlawful drug promotion, failure to report safety data, and false price reporting have led to substantial legal repercussions and reputational damage. Continued non‑compliance could result in further penalties, regulatory scrutiny, and loss of market access.
High Risk
Supply & Quality Risks
Failure to maintain continuous supply of compliant finished products or to enforce stringent quality controls can lead to patient safety issues, product recalls, and regulatory sanctions. These events can disrupt revenue streams and damage brand trust.
High Risk
Financial Reporting Controls
Inaccurate financial reporting, non‑compliance with tax laws, or losses from treasury activities could mislead stakeholders and trigger regulatory investigations. Misstatements may result in restatements, fines, and loss of investor confidence.
High Risk
Debt & Financing
GSK’s high level of debt increases financial risk, potentially limiting flexibility for capital allocation and raising borrowing costs. A deterioration in credit quality could impair access to new financing and increase default risk.
Medium
Regulatory Outcomes
Approval decisions from bodies such as the FDA and EMA, patent challenges, and settlement outcomes influence share price and investor expectations. Delays or denials can postpone product launches and reduce projected revenues.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why GSK Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Diversified Portfolio & Low‑Double‑Digit Growth
GSK’s Specialty Medicines division drives robust sales, delivering low‑double‑digit growth and positioning oncology, HIV, respiratory and immunology as high‑growth areas. The portfolio spans specialty medicines, vaccines and general medicines, providing multiple revenue streams.
Robust R&D Pipeline with 2025 Approvals
As of early 2025, 19 of 71 specialty medicines and vaccines are in Phase III or registration, with five major new product approvals expected in 2025. This pipeline underpins future growth and product diversification.
Targeted 2025 Turnover & Profit Growth
GSK projects 3%‑5% turnover growth at constant exchange rates in 2025, with core operating profit and EPS rising 6%‑8%. Long‑term sales are forecast to exceed £40 billion by 2031, a CAGR of over 7% for sales and over 11% for core operating profit.
Commitment to Shareholder Returns
The company plans a 64‑pence dividend per share for 2025 and a progressive dividend policy, alongside a £2 billion share buyback program already underway to enhance shareholder value.
Strategic Expansion into Emerging Markets
GSK is actively expanding into emerging markets and forming strategic partnerships to accelerate technology and new medicine development, diversifying revenue streams and strengthening its global footprint.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
GSK Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$50.38
52W Range Position
57%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$35.45
+42.1% from the low
52-Week High
$61.70
-18.3% from the high
1 Month
-10.63%
3 Month
-14.86%
YTD
+1.5%
1 Year
+29.7%
3Y CAGR
+10.9%
5Y CAGR
+5.9%
10Y CAGR
+1.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
GSK vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
10.4x
vs 16.6x median
-37% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+9.2%
vs +4.6% median
+99% above peer median
Net Margin
19.2%
vs 17.2% median
+12% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GSK GSK GSK plc | $101.3B | 10.4x | +9.2% | 19.2% | Hold | +4.1% |
AZN AZN AstraZeneca PLC | $281.0B | 17.6x | +9.5% | 17.2% | Buy | +16.4% |
NVS NVS Novartis AG | $277.6B | 16.6x | +5.0% | 24.1% | Hold | -3.1% |
SNY SNY Sanofi | $104.7B | 10.3x | +4.6% | 16.7% | Buy | +15.3% |
PFE PFE Pfizer Inc. | $150.4B | 8.9x | -2.7% | 11.8% | Hold | +3.1% |
MRK MRK Merck & Co., Inc. | $279.5B | 22.1x | +3.0% | 28.1% | Buy | +14.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
GSK Dividend and Capital Return
GSK returns 6.6% total yield, led by a 6.57% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
6.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
6.57%
Payout Ratio
43.9%
How GSK Splits Its Return
Div 6.57%
Dividend 6.57%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.44
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
2Y
3Y Div CAGR
0.3%
5Y Div CAGR
-3.8%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
2.0B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.50 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.70 | +9.1% | 0.0% | 5.0% |
| 2024 | $1.56 | +12.0% | 0.0% | 3.5% |
| 2023 | $1.39 | -17.3% | 0.0% | 3.7% |
| 2022 | $1.68 | -23.9% | 0.0% | 6.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsGSK Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is GSK plc (GSK) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
GSK plc (GSK) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 29 analysts covering the stock, 9 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 16 rate it Hold, and 4 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $52, implying +4.1% from the current price of $50. The bear case scenario is $13 and the bull case is $44.
02What is the GSK stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for GSK is $52 based on 29 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $85 (+68.7% from today), and the low-end target is $35 (-30.0%). The base case model target is $24.
03Is GSK plc (GSK) stock overvalued in 2026?
GSK trades at 10.4x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for GSK plc (GSK) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for GSK in 2026 are: (1) Product Liability — Unanticipated side effects of GSK’s drugs after widespread market introduction could trigger significant product liability lawsuits, potentially resulting in large settlements or damages. (2) Compliance & Misconduct — Past unlawful drug promotion, failure to report safety data, and false price reporting have led to substantial legal repercussions and reputational damage. (3) Supply & Quality Risks — Failure to maintain continuous supply of compliant finished products or to enforce stringent quality controls can lead to patient safety issues, product recalls, and regulatory sanctions. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is GSK plc's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates GSK will report consensus revenue of $36.4B (+9.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.50 (+11.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $38.1B in revenue.
06When does GSK plc (GSK) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for GSK is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does GSK plc generate?
GSK plc (GSK) generated $7.4B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 22.1%. GSK returns capital to shareholders through dividends (6.6% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).