Upside case
Bull case
$282+61.3%
AZN would need investors to value it at roughly 27x earnings — about 10x more generous than today's 17x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
41
analysts
20 bullish · 6 bearish · 41 covering AZN
Strong Buy
1
Buy
19
Hold
15
Sell
6
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$187
+6.7% vs today
Scenario Range
$135 – $282
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
41
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
17.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $271.2B
AZN price targets
Three scenarios for where AZN stock could go
Current
~$175
Confidence
49 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $175
Bear
$135
Base
$214
Bull
$282
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$214+22.4%
At 21x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$135-22.9%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 4x multiple contraction could push AZN down roughly 23% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
AstraZeneca PLC
AZN · NASDAQHealthcareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralDecember year-end
AstraZeneca is a global biopharmaceutical company that discovers, develops, manufactures, and commercializes prescription medicines across multiple therapeutic areas. It generates revenue primarily from oncology drugs (~40% of total revenue), cardiovascular/renal/metabolism treatments (~30%), and respiratory/immunology products, with the remainder from rare diseases and vaccines. The company's competitive advantage lies in its robust R&D pipeline—particularly in oncology and biologics—and its global commercial infrastructure that spans both developed and emerging markets.
Market Cap
$271.2B
Revenue TTM
$60.4B
Net Income TTM
$10.4B
Net Margin
17.2%
AZN Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+20.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.18/$2.16
Revenue
$14.5B/$14.8B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.38/$2.29
Revenue
$15.2B/$15.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.12/$2.18
Revenue
$15.5B/$15.4B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.58/$2.57
Revenue
$15.3B/$14.9B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.18/$2.16 | +0.9% | $14.5B/$14.8B | -2.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.38/$2.29 | +3.9% | $15.2B/$15.4B | -1.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.12/$2.18 | -2.8% | $15.5B/$15.4B | +0.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.58/$2.57 | +0.4% | $15.3B/$14.9B | +2.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$64.7B
+7.1% YoY
FY2
$68.2B
+5.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$7.47
+12.3% YoY
FY2
$7.84
+4.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$9.1B
FCF Margin: 15.1%
Next Earnings
July 27, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.22
Expected Revenue
$15.5B
AZN beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
AZN Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $99.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Total Oncology
23.9%
+38.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
The Americas
46.9%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Total Oncology is the largest disclosed segment at 23.9% of FY 2025 revenue, up 38.2% YoY.
The Americas is the largest reported region at 46.9%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
AZN Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $136 — implies -22.2% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
22.2%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
AZN
26.7x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+9% premium
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
AZN
26.7x
vs
Healthcare
22.1x
+21% premium
vs AZN 5Y Avg P/E
Today
26.7x
vs
5Y Average
46.1x
42% discount
Forward PE
17.0x
S&P 500
18.8x
-10%
Healthcare
18.3x
-7%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
26.7x
S&P 500
24.4x
+9%
Healthcare
22.1x
+21%
5Y Avg
46.1x
-42%
PEG Ratio
1.23x
S&P 500
1.66x
-26%
Healthcare
1.59x
-23%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
15.2x
S&P 500
15.2x
-0%
Healthcare
14.2x
+7%
5Y Avg
22.2x
-32%
Price/FCF
23.1x
S&P 500
20.7x
+11%
Healthcare
18.5x
+24%
5Y Avg
31.3x
-26%
Price/Sales
4.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
+49%
Healthcare
2.6x
+75%
5Y Avg
4.4x
+4%
Dividend Yield
1.86%
S&P 500
1.91%
-3%
Healthcare
1.50%
+24%
5Y Avg
2.13%
-13%
| Metric | AZN | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg AZN |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 17.0x | 18.8x | 18.3x | — |
| Trailing PE | 26.7x | 24.4x | 22.1x+21% | 46.1x-42% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.23x | 1.66x-26% | 1.59x-23% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.2x | 15.2x | 14.2x | 22.2x-32% |
| Price/FCF | 23.1x | 20.7x+11% | 18.5x+24% | 31.3x-26% |
| Price/Sales | 4.6x | 3.1x+49% | 2.6x+75% | 4.4x |
| Dividend Yield | 1.86% | 1.91% | 1.50% | 2.13% |
AZN trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolAZN Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
AZN generates $9.1B in free cash flow at a 15.1% margin — 14.9% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 2.1% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$60.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+9.9%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
81.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
23.7%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
17.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$6.66
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$9.1B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
15.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
14.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
9.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$5.7B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$24.0B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
2.6× FCF
~2.6 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
22.2%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.1%
Dividend
1.9%
Buyback
0.3%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$720M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3.25
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
49.6%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
1.6B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageAZN Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Medium
Valuation premium
AZN trades at a 24% premium to sector median P/E, suggesting potential overvaluation risk if growth fails to meet expectations.
High Risk
Growth execution risk
The company's ambitious $80bn revenue target by 2030 carries significant execution risk, particularly given the reliance on oncology and rare disease pipelines.
Medium
Pipeline concentration
Heavy dependence on oncology and rare disease segments for future growth creates vulnerability to clinical setbacks or competitive pressures.
Lower
Defensive risk profile
Low beta (0.22) indicates defensive characteristics, but may limit upside during market rallies compared to higher-growth peers.
Medium
Margin pressure
Net margins of 17.2% could face pressure from R&D costs and pricing pressures in key therapeutic areas.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why AZN Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Strong revenue growth
AstraZeneca reported 11% year-over-year growth to $7.03 billion last quarter, driven by a diverse portfolio of high-quality assets.
Oncology leadership
The company has transformed into a high-growth oncology and rare disease powerhouse, with standout performers like Tagrisso and Imfinzi.
Diverse product portfolio
Growth is not reliant on a single product but supported by multiple high-performing assets, reducing dependency risk.
Strategic reinvention success
AstraZeneca has successfully navigated past patent cliffs and reinvented itself as a resilient, high-growth biopharmaceutical leader.
Global market presence
With operations in 70 countries and a strong international footprint, AstraZeneca benefits from diversified revenue streams.
Innovation pipeline
The company's robust R&D efforts, from drug discovery to clinical trials, ensure a continuous pipeline of innovative medicines.
Financial resilience
AstraZeneca's structural bedrock and cash-generative assets position it for sustained financial performance and growth.
Positive analyst sentiment
Analysts rate AZN as a buy with high confidence, projecting significant upside potential to $235+.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
AZN Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$174.93
52W Range Position
69%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$91.44
+91.3% from the low
52-Week High
$212.71
-17.8% from the high
1 Month
-4.89%
3 Month
-7.16%
YTD
-4.2%
1 Year
+21.8%
3Y CAGR
+5.4%
5Y CAGR
+8.6%
10Y CAGR
+12.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
AZN vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
17.0x
vs 15.2x median
+12% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+7.1%
vs +4.2% median
+69% above peer median
Net Margin
17.2%
vs 15.0% median
+15% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AZN AZN AstraZeneca PLC | $271.2B | 17.0x | +7.1% | 17.2% | Buy | +6.7% |
PFE PFE Pfizer Inc. | $143.5B | 8.5x | 0.0% | 11.8% | Hold | +6.1% |
MRK MRK Merck & Co., Inc. | $281.2B | 22.2x | +4.2% | 28.1% | Buy | +15.6% |
LLY LLY Eli Lilly and Company | $1.04T | 30.0x | +15.1% | 35.0% | Buy | +15.8% |
BMY BMY Bristol-Myers Squibb Company | $110.3B | 8.5x | +1.0% | 15.0% | Hold | +15.9% |
ABB ABBV AbbVie Inc. | $383.2B | 15.2x | +8.7% | 6.9% | Buy | +18.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
AZN Dividend and Capital Return
AZN returns 2.1% total yield, led by a 1.86% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
2.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.3%
Dividend Yield
1.86%
Payout Ratio
49.6%
How AZN Splits Its Return
Div 1.86%
Dividend 1.86%Buybacks 0.3%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3.25
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
2Y
3Y Div CAGR
2.9%
5Y Div CAGR
2.5%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
2 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$720M
Estimated Shares Retired
4M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.6B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.17 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $3.16 | +6.3% | 0.3% | 2.1% |
| 2024 | $2.97 | +2.4% | 0.0% | 2.3% |
| 2023 | $2.90 | -0.1% | 0.0% | 2.1% |
| 2022 | $2.90 | +2.2% | 0.0% | 2.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsAZN Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 41 analysts covering the stock, 20 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 15 rate it Hold, and 6 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $187, implying +6.7% from the current price of $175. The bear case scenario is $135 and the bull case is $282.
02What is the AZN stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for AZN is $187 based on 41 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $216 (+23.5% from today), and the low-end target is $158 (-9.7%). The base case model target is $214.
03Is AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) stock overvalued in 2026?
AZN trades at 17.0x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for AZN in 2026 are: (1) Growth execution risk — The company's ambitious $80bn revenue target by 2030 carries significant execution risk, particularly given the reliance on oncology and rare disease pipelines. (2) Valuation premium — AZN trades at a 24% premium to sector median P/E, suggesting potential overvaluation risk if growth fails to meet expectations. (3) Pipeline concentration — Heavy dependence on oncology and rare disease segments for future growth creates vulnerability to clinical setbacks or competitive pressures. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is AstraZeneca PLC's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates AZN will report consensus revenue of $64.7B (+7.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $7.47 (+12.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $68.2B in revenue.
06When does AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) report its next earnings?
AstraZeneca PLC is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-27. Consensus expects EPS of $2.22 and revenue of $15.5B. Over recent quarters, AZN has beaten EPS estimates 83% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does AstraZeneca PLC generate?
AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) generated $9.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 15.1%. AZN returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.9% yield) and share repurchases ($720M TTM).