Upside case
Bull case
$319+119.6%
NVS would need investors to value it at roughly 36x earnings — about 20x more generous than today's 17x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Novartis AG (NVS) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
25
analysts
6 bullish · 2 bearish · 25 covering NVS
Strong Buy
0
Buy
6
Hold
17
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$141
-3.1% vs today
Scenario Range
$125 – $319
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
25
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
16.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $277.6B
NVS price targets
Three scenarios for where NVS stock could go
Current
~$146
Confidence
56 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $146
Bear
$125
Base
$165
Bull
$319
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$165+13.2%
At 19x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$125-14.4%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 2x multiple contraction could push NVS down roughly 14% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Novartis AG
NVS · NYSEHealthcareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralDecember year-end
Novartis is a global pharmaceutical company that develops and markets innovative prescription drugs and generic medicines. It generates revenue primarily from its Innovative Medicines segment — which includes oncology, immunology, and cardiovascular drugs — and its Sandoz generics division, with Innovative Medicines contributing roughly 80% of total sales. The company's competitive advantage lies in its deep R&D pipeline, strong patent protection for blockbuster drugs, and global commercial infrastructure that spans both branded and generic markets.
Market Cap
$277.6B
Revenue TTM
$56.1B
Net Income TTM
$13.5B
Net Margin
24.1%
NVS Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+2.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.42/$2.38
Revenue
$14.3B/$13.9B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.25/$2.26
Revenue
$14.4B/$13.6B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.03/$1.99
Revenue
$13.3B/$13.7B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.99/$2.11
Revenue
$13.1B/$13.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.42/$2.38 | +1.7% | $14.3B/$13.9B | +2.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.25/$2.26 | -0.4% | $14.4B/$13.6B | +5.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.03/$1.99 | +2.0% | $13.3B/$13.7B | -2.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.99/$2.11 | -5.7% | $13.1B/$13.4B | -2.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$58.8B
+5.0% YoY
FY2
$62.3B
+5.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$7.71
+9.2% YoY
FY2
$8.14
+5.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$16.4B
FCF Margin: 29.2%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
NVS beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
NVS Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2022
Total disclosed revenue $43.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Top 20 products
74.3%
-1.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Other countries
39.7%
-3.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Top 20 products is the largest disclosed segment at 74.3% of FY 2022 revenue, down 1.6% YoY.
Other countries is the largest reported region at 39.7%, down 3.6% YoY.
NVS Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fairly Valued
Fair value est. $140 — implies -4.8% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
4.8%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
NVS
20.2x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
19% discount
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
NVS
20.2x
vs
Healthcare
22.2x
9% discount
vs NVS 5Y Avg P/E
Today
20.2x
vs
5Y Average
17.0x
+19% premium
Forward PE
16.6x
S&P 500
19.1x
-13%
Healthcare
18.8x
-12%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
20.2x
S&P 500
25.1x
-19%
Healthcare
22.2x
-9%
5Y Avg
17.0x
+19%
PEG Ratio
1.32x
S&P 500
1.72x
-23%
Healthcare
1.53x
-14%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
13.5x
S&P 500
15.2x
-11%
Healthcare
14.0x
-4%
5Y Avg
12.7x
+6%
Price/FCF
15.7x
S&P 500
21.1x
-26%
Healthcare
18.6x
-15%
5Y Avg
15.7x
+0%
Price/Sales
5.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
+62%
Healthcare
2.8x
+81%
5Y Avg
4.4x
+16%
Dividend Yield
2.76%
S&P 500
1.87%
+48%
Healthcare
1.42%
+94%
5Y Avg
3.62%
-24%
| Metric | NVS | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg NVS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 16.6x | 19.1x-13% | 18.8x-12% | — |
| Trailing PE | 20.2x | 25.1x-19% | 22.2x | 17.0x+19% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.32x | 1.72x-23% | 1.53x-14% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.5x | 15.2x-11% | 14.0x | 12.7x |
| Price/FCF | 15.7x | 21.1x-26% | 18.6x-15% | 15.7x |
| Price/Sales | 5.1x | 3.1x+62% | 2.8x+81% | 4.4x+16% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.76% | 1.87% | 1.42% | 3.62% |
NVS trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolNVS Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
NVS generates $16.4B in free cash flow at a 29.2% margin — 18.8% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 6.1% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$56.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+5.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
75.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
30.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
24.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$7.06
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$16.4B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
29.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
18.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
12.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$11.4B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$25.6B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.6× FCF
~1.6 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
31.4%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
6.1%
Dividend
2.8%
Buyback
3.3%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$9.3B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$4.02
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
55.9%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
1.9B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageNVS Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Patent Expirations & Generic Competition
Novartis faces significant patent expirations for key products such as Entresto, Tasigna, and Promacta. The loss of patent protection can lead to substantial declines in sales as generic competition enters the market.
High Risk
Legal & Regulatory Challenges
The company operates in a complex legal landscape, facing potential proceedings, investigations, and enforcement actions related to pricing, bribery, trade regulations, product liability, antitrust, securities, healthcare fraud, marketing practices, and data privacy. Regulatory changes can trigger significant compliance costs or require alterations to business practices.
Medium
Production & Manufacturing Risks
Challenges in manufacturing processes, including the risk of falsified medicines and production failures or recalls, pose a threat to product quality and supply continuity.
Medium
Acquisitions & Integration Risks
Leveraging alliances and acquisitions carries risks such as difficulty identifying valuable opportunities, contractual disagreements, negative due diligence findings, and challenges in post‑acquisition integration.
Medium
US Pricing Policy Exposure
Potential impacts from US pricing policies, including Medicare/Medicaid and Most Favored Nation (MFN) pricing, could affect revenue and margin profiles.
Lower
Debt Profile
Novartis has a notable debt‑to‑equity ratio that has increased over the past five years, although the debt is generally well‑covered by operating cash flow and EBIT.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why NVS Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Robust Financial Performance
Novartis reported $56.67 billion in revenue for the twelve months ending December 31, 2025, a 9.57% year‑over‑year increase. Q4 2025 earnings per share were $2.03, surpassing analyst expectations, and the company’s net income margin stands at 24.89%, underscoring strong profitability.
Innovative Pipeline – Fabhalta® Success
The company’s Fabhalta® therapy has shown a significant slowing of kidney function decline in IgA nephropathy patients, bolstering its immunology and allergy pipeline. Recent R&D investments continue to target breakthrough treatments across multiple therapeutic areas.
Strategic Acquisitions Fuel Growth
Novartis has acquired Excellergy for up to $2 billion to strengthen its allergy portfolio and Pikavation Therapeutics for $3 billion to enhance its breast‑cancer pipeline, expanding both product breadth and market reach.
Consistent Shareholder Returns
Dividends have increased for six consecutive years, and the company actively runs share‑repurchase programs, which can smooth volatility and potentially lift shareholder value.
Defensive, Low‑Beta Profile
As a healthcare company, Novartis offers defensive qualities with a low beta of 0.52, indicating lower volatility relative to the broader market and providing stability during broader market swings.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
NVS Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$145.50
52W Range Position
62%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$104.93
+38.7% from the low
52-Week High
$170.46
-14.6% from the high
1 Month
-4.80%
3 Month
-5.49%
YTD
+5.0%
1 Year
+28.7%
3Y CAGR
+13.7%
5Y CAGR
+12.2%
10Y CAGR
+8.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
NVS vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
16.6x
vs 10.3x median
+61% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.0%
vs +8.1% median
-38% below peer median
Net Margin
24.1%
vs 17.2% median
+40% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NVS NVS Novartis AG | $277.6B | 16.6x | +5.0% | 24.1% | Hold | -3.1% |
PFE PFE Pfizer Inc. | $150.4B | 8.9x | -2.7% | 11.8% | Hold | +3.1% |
AZN AZN AstraZeneca PLC | $281.0B | 17.6x | +9.5% | 17.2% | Buy | +16.4% |
NVO NVO Novo Nordisk A/S | $151.4B | 2.1x | +8.1% | 33.1% | Buy | +4.7% |
SNY SNY Sanofi | $104.7B | 10.3x | +4.6% | 16.7% | Buy | +15.3% |
GSK GSK GSK plc | $101.3B | 10.4x | +9.2% | 19.2% | Hold | +4.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
NVS Dividend and Capital Return
NVS returns 6.1% annually — 2.76% through dividends and 3.3% through buybacks.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
6.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.3%
Dividend Yield
2.76%
Payout Ratio
55.9%
How NVS Splits Its Return
Div 2.76%
Buyback 3.3%
Dividend 2.76%Buybacks 3.3%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$4.02
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
6Y
3Y Div CAGR
22.7%
5Y Div CAGR
14.8%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Annual
1 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$9.3B
Estimated Shares Retired
64M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.9B
At 3.3%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $4.77 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $3.99 | +24.9% | 3.4% | 6.4% |
| 2024 | $3.20 | +40.7% | 4.2% | 8.1% |
| 2023 | $2.27 | +5.2% | 4.1% | 7.6% |
| 2022 | $2.16 | +3.9% | 5.6% | 9.6% |
FAQ
7 questionsNVS Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Novartis AG (NVS) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Novartis AG (NVS) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 25 analysts covering the stock, 6 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 17 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $141, implying -3.1% from the current price of $146. The bear case scenario is $125 and the bull case is $319.
02What is the NVS stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for NVS is $141 based on 25 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $170 (+16.8% from today), and the low-end target is $112 (-23.0%). The base case model target is $165.
03Is Novartis AG (NVS) stock overvalued in 2026?
NVS trades at 16.6x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fairly valued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Novartis AG (NVS) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for NVS in 2026 are: (1) Patent Expirations & Generic Competition — Novartis faces significant patent expirations for key products such as Entresto, Tasigna, and Promacta. (2) Legal & Regulatory Challenges — The company operates in a complex legal landscape, facing potential proceedings, investigations, and enforcement actions related to pricing, bribery, trade regulations, product liability, antitrust, securities, healthcare fraud, marketing practices, and data privacy. (3) Production & Manufacturing Risks — Challenges in manufacturing processes, including the risk of falsified medicines and production failures or recalls, pose a threat to product quality and supply continuity. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Novartis AG's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates NVS will report consensus revenue of $58.8B (+5.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $7.71 (+9.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $62.3B in revenue.
06When does Novartis AG (NVS) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for NVS is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Novartis AG generate?
Novartis AG (NVS) generated $16.4B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 29.2%. NVS returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.8% yield) and share repurchases ($9.3B TTM).