Upside case
Bull case
$31+12.9%
HBM would need investors to value it at roughly 19x earnings — about 2x more generous than today's 17x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
20
analysts
12 bullish · 0 bearish · 20 covering HBM
Strong Buy
0
Buy
12
Hold
8
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$30
+8.7% vs today
Scenario Range
$15 – $31
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
20
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
16.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $10.9B
HBM price targets
Three scenarios for where HBM stock could go
Current
~$28
Confidence
44 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $28
Bear
$15
Base
$24
Bull
$31
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$24-14.4%
At 14x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$15-46.0%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 8x multiple contraction could push HBM down roughly 46% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Hudbay Minerals Inc.
HBM · NYSEBasic MaterialsCopperDecember year-end
Hudbay Minerals is a diversified mining company that discovers, produces, and markets base and precious metals — primarily copper, zinc, gold, and silver — from operations in North and South America. It generates revenue from selling copper concentrates (containing copper, gold, and silver), zinc metal, molybdenum concentrates, and silver/gold doré, with copper being its primary revenue driver. The company's competitive advantage lies in its portfolio of long-life, low-cost polymetallic mines — particularly its flagship Constancia operation in Peru — which provide operational diversification and cost efficiency.
Market Cap
$10.9B
Revenue TTM
$2.2B
Net Income TTM
$570M
Net Margin
25.8%
HBM Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+28.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.19/$0.11
Revenue
$536M/$561M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.03/$0.06
Revenue
$347M/$716M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.22/$0.40
Revenue
$733M/$736M
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.40/$0.34
Revenue
$757M/$685M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.19/$0.11 | +72.7% | $536M/$561M | -4.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.03/$0.06 | -50.0% | $347M/$716M | -51.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.22/$0.40 | -45.0% | $733M/$736M | -0.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.40/$0.34 | +17.6% | $757M/$685M | +10.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$2.7B
+20.6% YoY
FY2
$3.2B
+21.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.27
-11.2% YoY
FY2
$1.31
+3.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$215M
FCF Margin: 9.7%
Next Earnings
August 12, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.35
Expected Revenue
$680M
HBM beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
HBM Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2017
Total disclosed revenue $658M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Peru
100.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Peru is the largest reported region at 100.0%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
HBM Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fair versus peers
Fair value est. $26 — implies -6.5% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
6.5%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
HBM
18.9x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
23% discount
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
HBM
18.9x
vs
Basic Materials
23.6x
20% discount
vs HBM 5Y Avg P/E
Today
18.9x
vs
5Y Average
24.8x
24% discount
Forward PE
16.9x
S&P 500
18.8x
-10%
Basic Materials
14.9x
+13%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
18.9x
S&P 500
24.4x
-23%
Basic Materials
23.6x
-20%
5Y Avg
24.8x
-24%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Basic Materials
1.23x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
11.2x
S&P 500
15.2x
-26%
Basic Materials
11.0x
+2%
5Y Avg
5.7x
+97%
Price/FCF
55.3x
S&P 500
20.7x
+167%
Basic Materials
29.0x
+91%
5Y Avg
24.6x
+124%
Price/Sales
5.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
+61%
Basic Materials
1.9x
+164%
5Y Avg
1.7x
+200%
Dividend Yield
0.05%
S&P 500
1.91%
-97%
Basic Materials
1.41%
-96%
5Y Avg
0.21%
-75%
| Metric | HBM | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg HBM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 16.9x | 18.8x-10% | 14.9x+13% | — |
| Trailing PE | 18.9x | 24.4x-23% | 23.6x-20% | 24.8x-24% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.23x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.2x | 15.2x-26% | 11.0x | 5.7x+97% |
| Price/FCF | 55.3x | 20.7x+167% | 29.0x+91% | 24.6x+124% |
| Price/Sales | 5.0x | 3.1x+61% | 1.9x+164% | 1.7x+200% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.05% | 1.91% | 1.41% | 0.21% |
HBM trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolHBM Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
HBM generates $215M in free cash flow at a 9.7% margin — 12.0% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$2.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+9.6%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
32.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
41.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
25.8%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.43
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$215M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
9.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
12.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
9.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$568M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$524M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
2.4× FCF
~2.4 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
19.2%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.1%
Dividend
0.1%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.01
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
1.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
397M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageHBM Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Financial Performance
Weaker than expected financial results and downward revisions in EBITDA estimates could negatively impact Hudbay's stock price.
Medium
Operational Risks
Mixed guidance for 2026 and challenges in sustaining operational execution may affect Hudbay's growth trajectory.
Medium
Commodity Price Volatility
Dependence on copper prices and potential lack of rebound could pressure Hudbay's revenue and profitability.
Lower
Market Sentiment
Despite positive free cash flow and dividend increases, investor sentiment may remain cautious due to broader market risks.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why HBM Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Low-cost diversified producer
Hudbay is recognized as a low-cost, diversified metals producer with a long track record of value creation for shareholders and community partners.
Proven operational expertise
The company stands out for its proven ability to discover, finance, build, and operate low-cost, long-life cash-generating assets.
Copper price leverage
More than half of Hudbay's income derives from copper, positioning it to benefit from firm copper prices.
Growth project execution
The bull thesis depends on major projects advancing on schedule, though execution risk remains a key consideration.
Attractive valuation metrics
Hudbay's forward P/E ratio of 12.92 suggests potential undervaluation compared to its trailing P/E of 41.60.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
HBM Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$27.59
52W Range Position
80%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$8.93
+209.0% from the low
52-Week High
$32.15
-14.2% from the high
1 Month
+13.73%
3 Month
+38.78%
YTD
+37.3%
1 Year
+183.8%
3Y CAGR
+76.8%
5Y CAGR
+35.4%
10Y CAGR
+18.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
HBM vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
16.9x
vs 10.2x median
+66% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+20.6%
vs +9.8% median
+110% above peer median
Net Margin
25.8%
vs 14.9% median
+73% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HBM HBM Hudbay Minerals Inc. | $10.9B | 16.9x | +20.6% | 25.8% | Buy | +8.7% |
FCX FCX Freeport-McMoRan Inc. | $98.7B | 25.4x | +7.1% | 10.3% | Buy | +4.0% |
TEC TECK Teck Resources Limited | $31.0B | 13.1x | +9.8% | 14.9% | Buy | +0.2% |
ERO ERO Ero Copper Corp. | $3.1B | 7.2x | +16.4% | 31.6% | Hold | +5.9% |
NEX NEXA Nexa Resources S.A. | $1.9B | 5.0x | +6.1% | 4.4% | Hold | +1.8% |
CDE CDE Coeur Mining, Inc. | $11.4B | 10.2x | +12.9% | 31.1% | Buy | +55.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
HBM Dividend and Capital Return
HBM does not currently return meaningful capital to shareholders.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
0.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
0.05%
Payout Ratio
1.0%
How HBM Splits Its Return
Div 0.05%
Dividend 0.05%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.01
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
-2.7%
5Y Div CAGR
-1.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
3 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
397M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.01 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.01 | -3.8% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| 2024 | $0.01 | +0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| 2023 | $0.01 | -4.2% | 0.0% | 0.3% |
| 2022 | $0.02 | -2.9% | 0.0% | 0.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsHBM Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 20 analysts covering the stock, 12 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 8 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $30, implying +8.7% from the current price of $28. The bear case scenario is $15 and the bull case is $31.
02What is the HBM stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for HBM is $30 based on 20 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $30 (+8.7% from today), and the low-end target is $30 (+8.7%). The base case model target is $24.
03Is Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM) stock overvalued in 2026?
HBM trades at 16.9x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fair versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for HBM in 2026 are: (1) Financial Performance — Weaker than expected financial results and downward revisions in EBITDA estimates could negatively impact Hudbay's stock price. (2) Operational Risks — Mixed guidance for 2026 and challenges in sustaining operational execution may affect Hudbay's growth trajectory. (3) Commodity Price Volatility — Dependence on copper prices and potential lack of rebound could pressure Hudbay's revenue and profitability. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Hudbay Minerals Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates HBM will report consensus revenue of $2.7B (+20.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.27 (-11.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $3.2B in revenue.
06When does Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM) report its next earnings?
Hudbay Minerals Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-12. Consensus expects EPS of $0.35 and revenue of $680M. Over recent quarters, HBM has beaten EPS estimates 50% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Hudbay Minerals Inc. generate?
Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM) generated $215M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 9.7%. HBM returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.1% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).