Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing TECK more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Teck Resources Limited (TECK) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
26
analysts
18 bullish · 2 bearish · 26 covering TECK
Strong Buy
0
Buy
18
Hold
6
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$65
+4.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$284 – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
26
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
13.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $29.9B
TECK price targets
Three scenarios for where TECK stock could go
Current
~$62
Confidence
43 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $62
Bear
$284
Base
$134
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$134+116.6%
At 29x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$284+358.6%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push TECK down roughly 359% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Teck Resources Limited
TECK · NYSEBasic MaterialsIndustrial MaterialsDecember year-end
Teck Resources is a diversified mining company that produces steelmaking coal, copper, zinc, and other industrial metals. It generates revenue primarily from steelmaking coal (roughly 50% of earnings), copper (about 30%), and zinc (around 20%), with additional contributions from energy and other metals. The company's competitive advantage lies in its large, long-life, low-cost asset base in stable jurisdictions — particularly its world-class steelmaking coal operations in British Columbia.
Market Cap
$29.9B
Revenue TTM
$12.4B
Net Income TTM
$1.8B
Net Margin
14.9%
TECK Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
73%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
55%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+25.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.30/—
Revenue
$1.5B/—
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.55/$0.39
Revenue
$2.4B/$2.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.98/$0.66
Revenue
$2.2B/$2.2B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.28/$0.76
Revenue
$2.8B/$2.3B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.30/— | — | $1.5B/— | — |
| Q4 2025 | $0.55/$0.39 | +41.0% | $2.4B/$2.1B | +17.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.98/$0.66 | +48.3% | $2.2B/$2.2B | +1.0% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.28/$0.76 | +68.4% | $2.8B/$2.3B | +22.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$13.5B
+9.2% YoY
FY2
$13.9B
+2.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$4.41
+17.2% YoY
FY2
$4.51
+2.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$482M
FCF Margin: 3.9%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
TECK beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
TECK Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $10.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
CHINA
24.3%
-4.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
CHINA is the largest reported region at 24.3%, down 4.1% YoY.
TECK Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $76 — implies +30.6% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
30.6%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
TECK
29.8x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+18% premium
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
TECK
29.8x
vs
Basic Materials
22.9x
+30% premium
vs TECK 5Y Avg P/E
Today
29.8x
vs
5Y Average
17.9x
+66% premium
Forward PE
13.3x
S&P 500
19.1x
-30%
Basic Materials
15.4x
-14%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
29.8x
S&P 500
25.2x
+18%
Basic Materials
22.9x
+30%
5Y Avg
17.9x
+66%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Basic Materials
1.22x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
12.5x
S&P 500
15.3x
-18%
Basic Materials
11.4x
+10%
5Y Avg
11.4x
+10%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.3x
—
Basic Materials
27.5x
—
5Y Avg
97.4x
—
Price/Sales
3.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
+21%
Basic Materials
2.0x
+92%
5Y Avg
2.1x
+82%
Dividend Yield
0.59%
S&P 500
1.88%
-69%
Basic Materials
1.37%
-57%
5Y Avg
1.59%
-63%
| Metric | TECK | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg TECK |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 13.3x | 19.1x-30% | 15.4x-14% | — |
| Trailing PE | 29.8x | 25.2x+18% | 22.9x+30% | 17.9x+66% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.22x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.5x | 15.3x-18% | 11.4x | 11.4x+10% |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.3x | 27.5x | 97.4x |
| Price/Sales | 3.8x | 3.1x+21% | 2.0x+92% | 2.1x+82% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.59% | 1.88% | 1.37% | 1.59% |
TECK trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 4 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolTECK Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
TECK returns 3.1% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$12.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+27.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
30.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
23.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
14.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.77
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$482M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
3.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
4.4%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
4.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$5.0B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$5.4B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
11.2× FCF
~11.2 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
7.1%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.1%
Dividend
0.6%
Buyback
2.5%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.0B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.50
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
17.6%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
482M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageTECK Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Overvaluation Risk
Teck’s current P/E of 26.41x exceeds the industry average of 22.5x and SimpleWall’s fair P/E estimate of 19.32x, implying the stock may be trading above intrinsic value. A DCF analysis indicates an 18.5% overvaluation, valuing shares at CA$63.77 versus the market price of CA$75.59.
High Risk
Commodity Price Volatility
Financial performance is tightly linked to copper and zinc prices. Lower forecasted commodity prices relative to current spot levels could exert persistent financial pressure, while weaker long‑term demand, increased recycling, and higher ESG costs may further erode margins.
Medium
Operational Production Risks
Teck has revised 2027‑28 production guidance downward, signalling potential underperformance. Operational challenges include lower mill throughput at Highland Valley, tailings‑management constraints at Quebrada Blanca 2, and permitting risks for copper assets.
Medium
Health & Safety Incidents
Vehicle‑related high‑potential incidents rose 122% in 2023 versus 2022, the largest incident category for Teck. Despite HPRC programs, ongoing incidents highlight persistent safety risk.
Lower
Cybersecurity & IT Failures
Information technology risks, including cyber threats and system failures, could disrupt operations or compromise data integrity.
Lower
Joint Arrangement Control
Some projects are managed through joint arrangements, limiting Teck’s control over decisions and potentially leading to outcomes that diverge from expectations.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why TECK Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Copper Growth Projects
Teck is targeting roughly 800,000 tonnes of copper output per year by the end of 2030, a sharp rise from 2024 levels. The Highland Valley Copper life extension, Quebrada Blanca optimization, and new projects at Zafranal and San Nicolas are expected to drive this expansion.
Quebrada Blanca Production Upswing
The company projects an 80% increase in attributable copper production at Quebrada Blanca by boosting throughput capacity. Efficiency gains are also expected to lower net cash unit costs, supporting higher margins.
Anglo American Merger Synergies
A potential merger with Anglo American could generate substantial revenue and pre‑tax annual synergies, positioning Teck as a top‑tier copper producer. The deal is viewed as a major value‑creation catalyst for the company.
Valuation Gap vs. Sector
Teck’s EV/EBITDA multiple is currently below sector averages, indicating a potential undervaluation. Analysts note a significant gap between the current enterprise value and the projected value based on future EBITDA growth.
Operational Improvements
Recent mill performance enhancements and recovery gains have bolstered EBITDA estimates. These operational gains underpin the company’s growth trajectory and strengthen its financial outlook.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
TECK Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$62.01
52W Range Position
96%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$30.98
+100.2% from the low
52-Week High
$63.27
-2.0% from the high
1 Month
+17.31%
3 Month
+12.72%
YTD
+29.1%
1 Year
+76.7%
3Y CAGR
+11.9%
5Y CAGR
+20.3%
10Y CAGR
+19.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
TECK vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
13.3x
vs 15.4x median
-14% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+9.2%
vs +18.3% median
-50% below peer median
Net Margin
14.9%
vs 25.8% median
-42% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TEC TECK Teck Resources Limited | $29.9B | 13.3x | +9.2% | 14.9% | Buy | +4.0% |
FCX FCX Freeport-McMoRan Inc. | $87.5B | 22.5x | +5.3% | 10.3% | Buy | +10.0% |
HBM HBM Hudbay Minerals Inc. | $9.5B | 15.4x | +18.3% | 25.8% | Buy | -56.9% |
SCC SCCO Southern Copper Corporation | $151.9B | 26.0x | +15.5% | 32.3% | Hold | -15.0% |
CMC CMCL Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc | $440M | 6.0x | +30.6% | 20.9% | Buy | -24.2% |
ERO ERO Ero Copper Corp. | $2.8B | 6.6x | +48.0% | 31.6% | Hold | +16.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
TECK Dividend and Capital Return
TECK returns capital mainly through $1.0B/year in buybacks (2.7% buyback yield), with a modest 0.63% dividend — combining for 3.3% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
3.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
2.7%
Dividend Yield
0.63%
Payout Ratio
17.6%
How TECK Splits Its Return
Div 0.63%
Buyback 2.7%
Dividend 0.63%Buybacks 2.7%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.50
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
-22.4%
5Y Div CAGR
19.2%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.0B
Estimated Shares Retired
16M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
482M
At 3.4%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.18 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.36 | -50.7% | 4.3% | 5.3% |
| 2024 | $0.73 | -0.3% | 5.9% | 8.3% |
| 2023 | $0.73 | -4.9% | 1.1% | 2.3% |
| 2022 | $0.77 | +383.6% | 6.9% | 9.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsTECK Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Teck Resources Limited (TECK) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Teck Resources Limited (TECK) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 26 analysts covering the stock, 18 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 6 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $65, implying +4.0% from the current price of $62.
02What is the TECK stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for TECK is $65 based on 26 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $67 (+8.0% from today), and the low-end target is $62 (-0.0%). The base case model target is $134.
03Is Teck Resources Limited (TECK) stock overvalued in 2026?
TECK trades at 13.3x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Teck Resources Limited (TECK) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for TECK in 2026 are: (1) Overvaluation Risk — Teck’s current P/E of 26. (2) Commodity Price Volatility — Financial performance is tightly linked to copper and zinc prices. (3) Operational Production Risks — Teck has revised 2027‑28 production guidance downward, signalling potential underperformance. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Teck Resources Limited's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates TECK will report consensus revenue of $13.5B (+9.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $4.41 (+17.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $13.9B in revenue.
06When does Teck Resources Limited (TECK) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for TECK is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Teck Resources Limited generate?
Teck Resources Limited (TECK) generated $482M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 3.9%. TECK returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.6% yield) and share repurchases ($1.0B TTM).