HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) Price Target Analysis
Wall Street analyst price targets, ratings consensus & upside potential · Updated May 1, 2026
Current Price
$428.79
Price Target
$527.45
Target Range
$436.00 — $635.00
Analyst Rating
Buy
Forward P/E14.2x
Trailing P/E15.1x
Forward PEG0.67
Implied Growth+2.9%
Median Target$530.00
Analyst Spread37.7%
Price Forecast (1 Year)
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
Bear Case
$436
+1.7%
Consensus
$527
+23.0%
Bull Case
$635
+48.1%
Valuation Model TargetsConfidence: 81/100
Bear$449
Base$544
Bull$724
HCA Price Target Analysis
Updated May 6, 2026As of May 6, 2026, HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $527.45, based on estimates from 46 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $428.79, this represents a potential upside of +23.0%. The company has a market capitalization of $95.86B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $436.00 to a high of $635.00, representing a 38% spread in expectations. The median target of $530.00 aligns closely with the consensus average.
The current analyst consensus rating is Buy, with 30 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,14 rating it Hold, and 2 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The positive sentiment balance indicates moderate optimism about the stock prospects.
From a valuation perspective, HCA trades at a trailing P/E of 15.1x and forward P/E of 14.2x. The forward PEG ratio of 0.67 suggests the stock may be undervalued relative to its growth. Analysts expect EPS to grow +2.9% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $543.94, with bear and bull scenarios of $449.20 and $723.93 respectively. Model confidence stands at 81/100, indicating high predictability in the company's fundamentals.
Investment Context: Price targets represent analyst expectations for the next 12 months and should be considered alongside your own research. Targets are based on analysts' assumptions about earnings growth, margins, and market conditions which may change. For sector-specific context, view other Healthcare stocks.
Analyst Sentiment Comparison
Industry Peer AnalysisAvg Peer Upside+21.6%
Avg Forward P/E19.4x
Peers with Coverage9 / 10
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 THCTenet Healthcare Corporation | $16.4B | $186.91 | $268.00 | +43.4% | Buy | 10.5x | 32 |
 CYHCommunity Health Systems, Inc. | $397M | $2.82 | $2.93 | +3.9% | Hold | — | 37 |
 UHSUniversal Health Services, Inc. | $10.4B | $165.40 | $231.50 | +40.0% | Hold | 7.1x | 43 |
 ENSGThe Ensign Group, Inc. | $10.3B | $175.95 | $222.33 | +26.4% | Buy | 23.4x | 13 |
 SEMSelect Medical Holdings Corporation | $2.0B | $16.44 | $18.00 | +9.5% | Hold | 13.1x | 13 |
 ACHCAcadia Healthcare Company, Inc. | $2.3B | $25.27 | $23.50 | -7.0% | Buy | 17.0x | 25 |
 SGRYSurgery Partners, Inc. | $1.8B | $14.26 | $18.60 | +30.4% | Buy | 37.9x | 22 |
 USPHU.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. | $1.1B | $71.74 | $102.00 | +42.2% | Buy | 25.1x | 12 |
 NHCNational HealthCare Corporation | $2.6B | $167.05 | — | — | — | 21.0x | — |
 UNHUnitedHealth Group Incorporated | $330.3B | $363.87 | $385.43 | +5.9% | Buy | 19.9x | 52 |
Upside Potential Comparison
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Start ComparisonHCA — Frequently Asked Questions
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying HCA stock.
What is the HCA stock price target for 2026?
The consensus Wall Street price target for HCA is $527.45, representing 23.0% upside from the current price of $428.79. With 46 analysts covering the stock, this strong upside suggests significant value not yet reflected in today's share price.
Is HCA a buy, sell, or hold?
HCA has a consensus rating of "Buy" based on 46 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is predominantly bullish, with 30 Buy/Strong Buy ratings. The consensus 12-month price target of $527.45 implies 23.0% upside from current levels.
Is HCA stock overvalued or undervalued?
With a forward P/E of 14.1777x, HCA trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $527.45 implies 23.0% appreciation, suggesting meaningful undervaluation.
How high can HCA stock go?
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $635 for HCA, while the most conservative target is $436. The consensus of $527.45 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $724 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
How many analysts cover HCA stock?
HCA is heavily covered by Wall Street, with 46 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 30 have Buy ratings, 14 recommend Hold, and 2 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
What is the HCA stock forecast?
The 12-month HCA stock forecast based on 46 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $527.45, with estimates ranging from $436 (bear case) to $635 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Buy". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $544, with bear/bull scenarios of $449/$724.
What is HCA's fair value based on fundamentals?
Our quantitative valuation model calculates HCA's fair value at $544 (base case), with a bear case of $449 and bull case of $724. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 81/100.
What is HCA's forward P/E ratio?
HCA trades at a forward P/E ratio of 14.2x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 15.1x. The lower forward P/E indicates analysts expect earnings growth. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Should I buy HCA stock?
Wall Street analysts are very optimistic on HCA, with a "Buy" consensus rating and $527.45 price target (23.0% upside). 30 of 46 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Why do HCA price targets vary so much?
HCA analyst price targets range from $436 to $635, a 38% moderate spread showing some variance in outlooks. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $527.45 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $449-$724 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.