HRTG trades 9.9% below Wall Street's consensus target of $36.50.
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
The base valuation assumes HRTG achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 5.5x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 9 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
As of November 8, 2026, Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. (HRTG) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $36.50, based on estimates from 9 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $33.22, this represents a potential upside of +9.9%. The company has a market capitalization of $1.01B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $31.00 to a high of $42.00, representing a 30% spread in expectations. The median target of $36.50 aligns closely with the consensus average.
The current analyst consensus rating is Buy, with 5 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,4 rating it Hold, and 0 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The positive sentiment balance indicates moderate optimism about the stock prospects.
From a valuation perspective, HRTG trades at a trailing P/E of 4.6x and forward P/E of 5.5x. The forward PEG ratio of 0.07 suggests the stock may be undervalued relative to its growth. Analysts expect EPS to grow -15.0% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $55.86, with bear and bull scenarios of $35.19 and $73.60 respectively. Model confidence stands at 47/100, suggesting limited visibility into future performance.
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 UPCUniverse Pharmaceuticals Inc. | $783040 | $1.39 | — | — | — | — | — |
 HCIHCI Group, Inc. | $2.4B | $186.03 | $230.00 | +23.6% | Buy | 8.9x | 14 |
 PLMRPalomar Holdings, Inc. | $4.1B | $155.71 | $164.00 | +5.3% | Buy | 15.5x | 11 |
 NODKNI Holdings, Inc. | $314M | $15.33 | — | — | — | — | — |
 ACGLArch Capital Group Ltd. | $37.5B | $107.28 | $112.50 | +4.9% | Hold | 10.6x | 34 |
 RLIRLI Corp. | $6.3B | $68.35 | $60.00 | -12.2% | Hold | 21.2x | 12 |
 RNRRenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. | $14.4B | $347.35 | $338.13 | -2.7% | Hold | 7.0x | 28 |
 VRSKVerisk Analytics, Inc. | $26.6B | $204.59 | $222.86 | +8.9% | Hold | 26.5x | 25 |
 IIIVi3 Verticals, Inc. | $456M | $19.07 | $26.00 | +36.3% | Buy | 17.8x | 15 |
 FAFFirst American Financial Corporation | $6.8B | $67.01 | $76.50 | +14.2% | Buy | 9.9x | 15 |
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying HRTG stock.
The consensus price target for HRTG is $36.5, close to the current price of $33.22 (9.9% implied move). Based on 9 analyst estimates, the stock appears fairly valued near current levels.
HRTG has a consensus rating of "Buy" based on 9 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is predominantly bullish, with 5 Buy/Strong Buy ratings. The consensus 12-month price target of $36.5 implies 9.9% upside from current levels.
With a forward P/E of 5.4571x, HRTG trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $36.5 implies 9.9% appreciation, suggesting the market may be pricing in risks.
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $42 for HRTG, while the most conservative target is $31. The consensus of $36.5 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $74 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
HRTG is moderately covered, with 9 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 5 have Buy ratings, 4 recommend Hold, and 0 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
The 12-month HRTG stock forecast based on 9 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $36.5, with estimates ranging from $31 (bear case) to $42 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Buy". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $56, with bear/bull scenarios of $35/$74.
Our quantitative valuation model calculates HRTG's fair value at $56 (base case), with a bear case of $35 and bull case of $74. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 47/100.
HRTG trades at a forward P/E ratio of 5.5x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 4.6x. The higher forward P/E suggests near-term earnings pressure. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
HRTG appears fairly valued according to analysts, with a "Buy" rating and minimal upside to the $36.5 target. Consider your investment thesis and risk tolerance. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HRTG analyst price targets range from $31 to $42, a 30% moderate spread showing some variance in outlooks. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $36.5 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $35-$74 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
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