HRTG trades 10.4% below Wall Street's consensus target of $36.50.
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
The base valuation assumes HRTG achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 6.2x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 9 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
As of September 24, 2026, Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. (HRTG) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $36.50, based on estimates from 9 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $33.07, this represents a potential upside of +10.4%. The company has a market capitalization of $1.00B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $31.00 to a high of $42.00, representing a 30% spread in expectations. The median target of $36.50 aligns closely with the consensus average.
The current analyst consensus rating is Buy, with 5 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,4 rating it Hold, and 0 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The positive sentiment balance indicates moderate optimism about the stock prospects.
From a valuation perspective, HRTG trades at a trailing P/E of 5.2x and forward P/E of 6.2x. The forward PEG ratio of 0.08 suggests the stock may be undervalued relative to its growth. Analysts expect EPS to grow -25.5% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $49.77, with bear and bull scenarios of $31.35 and $65.57 respectively. Model confidence stands at 47/100, suggesting limited visibility into future performance.
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 PLMRPalomar Holdings, Inc. | $3.4B | $127.21 | $158.50 | +24.6% | Buy | 12.6x | 11 |
 NODKNI Holdings, Inc. | $302M | $14.76 | — | — | — | — | — |
 ACGLArch Capital Group Ltd. | $33.2B | $95.16 | $113.50 | +19.3% | Buy | 10.1x | 34 |
 RLIRLI Corp. | $5.2B | $56.85 | $61.33 | +7.9% | Hold | 19.9x | 12 |
 RNRRenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. | $13.7B | $328.80 | $332.29 | +1.1% | Hold | 7.6x | 28 |
 VRSKVerisk Analytics, Inc. | $22.4B | $171.80 | $225.43 | +31.2% | Hold | 22.3x | 25 |
 IIIVi3 Verticals, Inc. | $361M | $15.10 | $26.00 | +72.2% | Buy | 14.1x | 15 |
 FAFFirst American Financial Corporation | $7.0B | $68.09 | $83.00 | +21.9% | Buy | 9.8x | 15 |
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying HRTG stock.
Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. (HRTG) has a consensus 12-month price target of $36.5, implying 10.4% upside from $33.07. The 9 analysts covering HRTG see moderate appreciation potential.
HRTG has a consensus rating of "Buy" based on 9 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is predominantly bullish, with 5 Buy/Strong Buy ratings. The consensus 12-month price target of $36.5 implies 10.4% upside from current levels.
With a forward P/E of 6.2007x, HRTG trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $36.5 implies 10.4% appreciation, suggesting meaningful undervaluation.
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $42 for HRTG, while the most conservative target is $31. The consensus of $36.5 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $66 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
HRTG is moderately covered, with 9 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 5 have Buy ratings, 4 recommend Hold, and 0 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
The 12-month HRTG stock forecast based on 9 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $36.5, with estimates ranging from $31 (bear case) to $42 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Buy". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $50, with bear/bull scenarios of $31/$66.
Our quantitative valuation model calculates HRTG's fair value at $50 (base case), with a bear case of $31 and bull case of $66. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 47/100.
HRTG trades at a forward P/E ratio of 6.2x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 5.2x. The higher forward P/E suggests near-term earnings pressure. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Wall Street analysts are optimistic on HRTG, with a "Buy" consensus rating and $36.5 price target (10.4% upside). 5 of 9 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HRTG analyst price targets range from $31 to $42, a 30% moderate spread showing some variance in outlooks. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $36.5 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $31-$66 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
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