Upside case
Bull case
$3336+13335.9%
HDB would need investors to value it at roughly 23x earnings — about 23x more generous than today's 0x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
HDFC Bank Limited (HDB) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
6
analysts
2 bullish · 0 bearish · 6 covering HDB
Strong Buy
0
Buy
2
Hold
4
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
—
— vs today
Scenario Range
$1469 – $3336
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
6
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
0.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $190.0B
HDB price targets
Three scenarios for where HDB stock could go
Current
~$25
Confidence
54 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $25
Bear
$1469
Base
$2250
Bull
$3336
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$2250+8960.5%
At 15x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$1469+5815.9%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push HDB down roughly 5816% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
HDFC Bank Limited
HDB · NYSEFinancial ServicesBanks - RegionalMarch year-end
HDFC Bank is one of India's largest private sector banks providing a comprehensive range of banking and financial services to retail and corporate customers. It generates revenue primarily through net interest income from its lending operations — retail banking (~50%), wholesale banking (~35%), and treasury operations — supplemented by fees from transaction banking, cards, and wealth management services. The bank's competitive advantage lies in its extensive branch network, strong deposit franchise, and superior technology platform that enables efficient operations and cross-selling across its large customer base.
Market Cap
$190.0B
Net Income TTM
$692.2B
HDB Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
82%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
80%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+1227.7%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.37/$0.38
Revenue
$6.0B/$5.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.44/$0.36
Revenue
$5.0B/$5.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.43/$0.39
Revenue
$5.0B/$5.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.43/$0.39
Revenue
$5.0B/$5.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.37/$0.38 | -2.6% | $6.0B/$5.1B | +19.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.44/$0.36 | +22.2% | $5.0B/$5.0B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.43/$0.39 | +10.3% | $5.0B/$5.1B | -1.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.43/$0.39 | +10.3% | $5.0B/$5.1B | -2.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$4.54T
+8.2% YoY
FY2
$5.38T
+18.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$119.99
-11.2% YoY
FY2
$131.69
+9.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$0
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
HDB beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
HDB Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2012
Total disclosed revenue $127.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Retail Banking
57.5%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Wholesale Segment
100.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Retail Banking is the largest disclosed segment at 57.5% of FY 2012 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
Wholesale Segment is the largest reported region at 100.0%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
HDB Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $1281 — implies +4987.3% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
4987.3%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
HDB
17.0x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
32% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
HDB
17.0x
vs
Financial Services
13.3x
+28% premium
vs HDB 5Y Avg P/E
Today
17.0x
vs
5Y Average
0.3x
+5708% premium
Forward PE
0.2x
S&P 500
19.1x
-99%
Financial Services
10.4x
-98%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
17.0x
S&P 500
25.1x
-32%
Financial Services
13.3x
+28%
5Y Avg
0.3x
+5708%
PEG Ratio
1.28x
S&P 500
1.72x
-25%
Financial Services
1.01x
+26%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
24.1x
S&P 500
15.2x
+58%
Financial Services
11.4x
+111%
5Y Avg
3.1x
+677%
Price/FCF
16.0x
S&P 500
21.1x
-24%
Financial Services
10.6x
+52%
5Y Avg
0.2x
+8430%
Price/Sales
4.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
+38%
Financial Services
2.2x
+93%
5Y Avg
0.1x
+6947%
Dividend Yield
1.31%
S&P 500
1.87%
-30%
Financial Services
2.70%
-51%
5Y Avg
0.12%
+1026%
| Metric | HDB | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg HDB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 0.2x | 19.1x-99% | 10.4x-98% | — |
| Trailing PE | 17.0x | 25.1x-32% | 13.3x+28% | 0.3x+5708% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.28x | 1.72x-25% | 1.01x+26% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 24.1x | 15.2x+58% | 11.4x+111% | 3.1x+677% |
| Price/FCF | 16.0x | 21.1x-24% | 10.6x+52% | 0.2x+8430% |
| Price/Sales | 4.3x | 3.1x+38% | 2.2x+93% | 0.1x+6947% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.31% | 1.87% | 2.70% | 0.12% |
HDB trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolHDB Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
HDB generates 12.3% ROE and 1.5% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$135.17
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
12.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
4.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
1.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$3.22T
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$4.23T
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
12.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.3%
Dividend
1.3%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$30.94
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
23.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
7.7B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageHDB Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Regulatory Stake Reduction
RBI circular Oct 2024 requires promoters to cut stake below 20% within two years. HDFC Bank holds 94.09% stake; forced divestiture could trigger share price volatility and alter governance, impacting capital structure and strategic decisions.
High Risk
Rising Gross Stage 3 Loans
Gross Stage 3 Loans rose from 1.90% in March 2024 to 2.26% in March 2025, indicating worsening asset quality. Even with a prudent Provision Coverage Ratio, the 26.99% unsecured loan portfolio amplifies credit risk, potentially eroding net interest income.
Medium
High Debt‑to‑Equity Leverage
HDB’s debt‑to‑equity ratio stands at 6.2x in FY25, higher than many peers. In a tightening liquidity environment or rising borrowing costs, this leverage could squeeze margins and limit refinancing flexibility.
Medium
Competitive Margin Compression
Intensifying competition in semi‑urban and rural lending, coupled with potential yield compression, threatens to erode net interest margins. This could pressure profitability and reduce returns relative to peers.
Medium
New‑to‑Credit Borrower Exposure
Loans to new‑to‑credit borrowers represent 11.57% of the loan book as of March 2025. Limited credit history increases default risk, potentially impacting asset quality and provisioning needs.
Lower
Offer for Sale (OFS) Capital Allocation
A portion of IPO proceeds is from an OFS, meaning those funds are not available for operations or growth. This limits capital flexibility and may constrain future expansion plans.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why HDB Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Robust Earnings Growth & Profitability
HDFC Bank has delivered a historical average annual earnings growth of 25.6% over the past five years, while maintaining a net profit margin of 27.6%. The bank’s loan‑to‑deposit ratio and CASA ratio have improved, supporting margin accretion and sequential loan growth.
HDB Financial Services Resilience
The subsidiary has shown resilience with net interest income up 18% year‑on‑year, despite a seasonally weak first quarter. Analysts cite improving margins, a strong asset mix, and stabilizing credit metrics as key strengths.
India’s Rapid Economic Expansion
India is one of the world’s fastest‑growing economies, projected to become a top‑tier economy. HDFC Bank’s scale, customer loyalty, and brand trust position it to capture this growth, creating a durable economic moat.
Growing Investor Interest & Options Activity
Call options trading for HDB has risen significantly, and institutional investors are steadily increasing their stakes. Brokerages remain bullish on HDB Financial Services, projecting upside despite short‑term challenges.
RBI Regulatory Relief Boosts Flexibility
Recent RBI relief on business overlap concerns for HDB Financial Services removes a key regulatory hurdle, potentially enabling greater operational flexibility and growth.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
HDB Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$24.83
52W Range Position
6%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$23.91
+3.8% from the low
52-Week High
$39.81
-37.6% from the high
1 Month
-3.27%
3 Month
-26.95%
YTD
-31.9%
1 Year
-32.5%
3Y CAGR
-9.5%
5Y CAGR
-6.6%
10Y CAGR
+4.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
HDB vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
0.2x
vs 1.4x median
-88% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+8.2%
vs +12.4% median
-34% below peer median
Net Margin
—
vs 25.8% median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HDB HDB HDFC Bank Limited | $190.0B | 0.2x | +8.2% | — | Hold | — |
IBN IBN ICICI Bank Limited | $93.1B | 0.2x | +12.4% | — | Buy | — |
HBM HBM Hudbay Minerals Inc. | $8.9B | 14.3x | +18.3% | 25.8% | Buy | -53.7% |
ITU ITUB Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A. | $94.5B | 1.8x | -0.6% | — | Buy | -25.6% |
BBD BBD Banco Bradesco S.A. | $40.6B | 1.4x | -15.3% | — | Hold | -16.7% |
KB KB KB Financial Group Inc. | $38.7B | 0.0x | +19.8% | — | Hold | — |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
HDB Dividend and Capital Return
HDB returns 1.3% total yield, led by a 1.31% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
1.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
1.31%
Payout Ratio
23.5%
How HDB Splits Its Return
Div 1.31%
Dividend 1.31%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$30.94
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
4Y
3Y Div CAGR
56.9%
5Y Div CAGR
11.3%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
7.7B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.35 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.12 | +19.5% | 0.0% | 93.1% |
| 2024 | $0.94 | +61.7% | 1.7% | 67.0% |
| 2023 | $0.58 | +99.8% | 0.0% | 69.5% |
| 2022 | $0.29 | +35.6% | 0.0% | 31.8% |
FAQ
6 questionsHDB Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is HDFC Bank Limited (HDB) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
HDFC Bank Limited (HDB) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 6 analysts covering the stock, 2 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 4 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The bear case scenario is $1469 and the bull case is $3336.
02Is HDFC Bank Limited (HDB) stock overvalued in 2026?
HDB trades at 0.2x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
03What are the main risks for HDFC Bank Limited (HDB) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for HDB in 2026 are: (1) Regulatory Stake Reduction — RBI circular Oct 2024 requires promoters to cut stake below 20% within two years. (2) Rising Gross Stage 3 Loans — Gross Stage 3 Loans rose from 1. (3) High Debt‑to‑Equity Leverage — HDB’s debt‑to‑equity ratio stands at 6. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
04What is HDFC Bank Limited's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates HDB will report consensus revenue of $4.54T (+8.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $119.99 (-11.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $5.38T in revenue.
05When does HDFC Bank Limited (HDB) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for HDB is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
06How much free cash flow does HDFC Bank Limited generate?
HDFC Bank Limited (HDB) generated $0 in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. HDB returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.3% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).