HFWA trades 14.5% below Wall Street's consensus target of $32.00.
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
The base valuation assumes HFWA achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 14.1x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 14 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
As of September 24, 2026, Heritage Financial Corporation (HFWA) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $32.00, based on estimates from 14 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $27.95, this represents a potential upside of +14.5%. The company has a market capitalization of $1.15B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $32.00 to a high of $32.00, representing a 0% spread in expectations. The median target of $32.00 aligns closely with the consensus average. The tight target dispersion indicates high conviction among analysts.
The current analyst consensus rating is Buy, with 7 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,7 rating it Hold, and 0 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The positive sentiment balance indicates moderate optimism about the stock prospects.
From a valuation perspective, HFWA trades at a trailing P/E of 14.3x and forward P/E of 14.1x. The forward PEG ratio of 1.62 indicates reasonable valuation for growth. Analysts expect EPS to grow +2.4% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $35.55, with bear and bull scenarios of $22.40 and $46.84 respectively. Model confidence stands at 49/100, suggesting limited visibility into future performance.
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 COLBColumbia Banking System, Inc. | $8.2B | $28.85 | $34.20 | +18.5% | Buy | 9.5x | 19 |
 WAFDWaFd, Inc. | $2.3B | $30.70 | $38.00 | +23.8% | Hold | 9.3x | 11 |
 HOMBHome Bancshares, Inc. | $5.8B | $28.84 | $33.25 | +15.3% | Hold | 11.5x | 19 |
 NWBINorthwest Bancshares, Inc. | $2.2B | $15.04 | $17.50 | +16.4% | Hold | 10.7x | 15 |
 CVBFCVB Financial Corp. | $3.2B | $22.01 | $26.67 | +21.2% | Hold | 14.6x | 16 |
 GBCIGlacier Bancorp, Inc. | $5.7B | $44.13 | $57.00 | +29.2% | Buy | 14.5x | 14 |
 SFNCSimmons First National Corporation | $3.3B | $22.89 | $26.17 | +14.3% | Buy | 11.2x | 9 |
 FFINFirst Financial Bankshares, Inc. | $4.6B | $31.92 | $35.33 | +10.7% | Hold | 15.6x | 16 |
 FISFidelity National Information Services, Inc. | $17.9B | $34.67 | $48.42 | +39.7% | Buy | 5.6x | 37 |
 FISIFinancial Institutions, Inc. | $781M | $39.66 | $45.00 | +13.5% | Hold | 9.5x | 6 |
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying HFWA stock.
Heritage Financial Corporation (HFWA) has a consensus 12-month price target of $32, implying 14.5% upside from $27.95. The 14 analysts covering HFWA see moderate appreciation potential.
HFWA has a consensus rating of "Buy" based on 14 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is mixed, with 7 Hold ratings making up the largest segment. The consensus 12-month price target of $32 implies 14.5% upside from current levels.
With a forward P/E of 14.1397x, HFWA trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $32 implies 14.5% appreciation, suggesting meaningful undervaluation.
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $32 for HFWA, while the most conservative target is $32. The consensus of $32 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $47 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
HFWA is moderately covered, with 14 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 7 have Buy ratings, 7 recommend Hold, and 0 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
The 12-month HFWA stock forecast based on 14 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $32, with estimates ranging from $32 (bear case) to $32 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Buy". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $36, with bear/bull scenarios of $22/$47.
Our quantitative valuation model calculates HFWA's fair value at $36 (base case), with a bear case of $22 and bull case of $47. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 49/100.
HFWA trades at a forward P/E ratio of 14.1x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 14.3x. The lower forward P/E indicates analysts expect earnings growth. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Wall Street analysts are optimistic on HFWA, with a "Buy" consensus rating and $32 price target (14.5% upside). 7 of 14 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HFWA analyst price targets range from $32 to $32, a 0% tight range reflecting strong analyst consensus. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $32 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $22-$47 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
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