Upside case
Bull case
$823+57.9%
NOC would need investors to value it at roughly 29x earnings — about 11x more generous than today's 19x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
35
analysts
20 bullish · 1 bearish · 35 covering NOC
Strong Buy
0
Buy
20
Hold
14
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$734
+40.7% vs today
Scenario Range
$394 – $823
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
35
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
18.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $74.1B
NOC price targets
Three scenarios for where NOC stock could go
Current
~$522
Confidence
53 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $522
Bear
$394
Base
$625
Bull
$823
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$625+19.8%
At 22x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$394-24.5%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 5x multiple contraction could push NOC down roughly 25% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Northrop Grumman Corporation
NOC · NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseDecember year-end
Northrop Grumman is a major aerospace and defense contractor that designs, develops, and manufactures advanced military aircraft, space systems, and defense technologies. It generates revenue primarily through long-term government contracts across four segments: Aeronautics Systems (~30%), Defense Systems (~20%), Mission Systems (~25%), and Space Systems (~25%). The company's moat lies in its deep expertise in classified defense programs, complex systems integration capabilities, and entrenched relationships with the U.S. Department of Defense and intelligence agencies.
Market Cap
$74.1B
Revenue TTM
$42.4B
Net Income TTM
$4.6B
Net Margin
10.8%
NOC Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+6.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$7.11/$6.92
Revenue
$10.4B/$10.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$7.67/$6.44
Revenue
$10.4B/$10.7B
Q1 2026
EPS
$7.23/$6.98
Revenue
$11.7B/$11.6B
Q2 2026
EPS
$6.14/$6.06
Revenue
$9.9B/$9.8B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $7.11/$6.92 | +2.7% | $10.4B/$10.1B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.67/$6.44 | +19.1% | $10.4B/$10.7B | -2.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $7.23/$6.98 | +3.6% | $11.7B/$11.6B | +0.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $6.14/$6.06 | +1.3% | $9.9B/$9.8B | +1.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$44.1B
+4.0% YoY
FY2
$46.7B
+6.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$30.86
-3.9% YoY
FY2
$33.02
+7.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$3.3B
FCF Margin: 7.8%
Next Earnings
July 23, 2026
Expected EPS
$6.81
Expected Revenue
$10.8B
NOC beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
NOC Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $42.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Aeronautics Systems
31.0%
+8.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Europe
63.1%
+15.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Aeronautics Systems is the largest disclosed segment at 31.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 8.0% YoY.
Europe is the largest reported region at 63.1%, up 15.8% YoY.
NOC Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $569 — implies +9.0% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
9.0%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
NOC
17.9x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
27% discount
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
NOC
17.9x
vs
Industrials
25.6x
30% discount
vs NOC 5Y Avg P/E
Today
17.9x
vs
5Y Average
19.4x
8% discount
Forward PE
18.7x
S&P 500
18.8x
-1%
Industrials
21.2x
-12%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
17.9x
S&P 500
24.4x
-27%
Industrials
25.6x
-30%
5Y Avg
19.4x
-8%
PEG Ratio
2.03x
S&P 500
1.66x
+22%
Industrials
1.65x
+23%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
15.5x
S&P 500
15.2x
+2%
Industrials
13.9x
+12%
5Y Avg
17.0x
-8%
Price/FCF
22.4x
S&P 500
20.7x
+8%
Industrials
20.0x
+12%
5Y Avg
34.4x
-35%
Price/Sales
1.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
-43%
Industrials
1.6x
+13%
5Y Avg
1.9x
-7%
Dividend Yield
1.72%
S&P 500
1.91%
-10%
Industrials
1.21%
+42%
5Y Avg
1.54%
+12%
| Metric | NOC | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg NOC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 18.7x | 18.8x | 21.2x-12% | — |
| Trailing PE | 17.9x | 24.4x-27% | 25.6x-30% | 19.4x |
| PEG Ratio | 2.03x | 1.66x+22% | 1.65x+23% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.5x | 15.2x | 13.9x+12% | 17.0x |
| Price/FCF | 22.4x | 20.7x | 20.0x+12% | 34.4x-35% |
| Price/Sales | 1.8x | 3.1x-43% | 1.6x+13% | 1.9x |
| Dividend Yield | 1.72% | 1.91% | 1.21% | 1.54% |
NOC trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolNOC Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
NOC 10.2% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage — returns 3.9% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$42.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+5.0%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
20.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
11.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
10.8%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$32.11
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$3.3B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
7.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
10.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
9.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$4.4B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$15.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
4.6× FCF
~4.6 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
28.1%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (10.2%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.9%
Dividend
1.7%
Buyback
2.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.6B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$8.99
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
30.9%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
142M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageNOC Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Contract execution risks
Northrop Grumman faces potential overruns and volatility in key programs like the B-21 Raider stealth bomber, which could impact profitability.
High Risk
Valuation concerns
Shares appear overvalued at 25x P/E, with risks from contract execution and mark-to-market volatility.
Medium
Competitive market dynamics
The company's 10-K highlights increased focus on competitive risks, including pressure from rivals in defense and aerospace sectors.
Medium
Geopolitical and international risks
Northrop Grumman faces exposure to geopolitical uncertainties and challenges in international business operations.
Medium
Macroeconomic challenges
The company has recalibrated risk disclosures to reflect broader macroeconomic headwinds, including budget constraints and inflation.
Lower
Defense budget dynamics
While the US defense budget supports growth, shifts in funding priorities could create uncertainty for long-term programs.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why NOC Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Wide economic moat
Northrop Grumman benefits from a wide economic moat, providing a competitive advantage in the defense sector.
B-21 program potential
The B-21 program is a key growth driver, though technical delays could pose risks.
Space spending exposure
The company is well-positioned to benefit from sustained government spending on space infrastructure.
Strong intrinsic value
DCF models suggest a significant margin of safety, with bull case intrinsic value up to $856.
Defense infrastructure play
Northrop Grumman remains a primary way to invest in essential global defense infrastructure.
Revenue and EPS growth
Historical revenue and EPS growth support the bullish investment thesis.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
NOC Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$521.50
52W Range Position
14%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$481.28
+8.4% from the low
52-Week High
$774.00
-32.6% from the high
1 Month
-5.18%
3 Month
-28.05%
YTD
-11.0%
1 Year
+5.4%
3Y CAGR
+4.7%
5Y CAGR
+7.3%
10Y CAGR
+9.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
NOC vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
18.7x
vs 19.0x median
-2% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+4.0%
vs +5.4% median
-26% below peer median
Net Margin
10.8%
vs 6.4% median
+69% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NOC NOC Northrop Grumman Corporation | $74.1B | 18.7x | +4.0% | 10.8% | Buy | +40.7% |
LMT LMT Lockheed Martin Corporation | $117.8B | 17.1x | +4.8% | 6.4% | Buy | +24.3% |
RTX RTX RTX Corporation | $249.9B | 26.7x | +6.0% | 8.0% | Buy | +20.9% |
GD GD General Dynamics Corporation | $94.7B | 21.0x | +5.4% | 8.1% | Buy | +17.5% |
BA BA The Boeing Company | $175.6B | — | +7.8% | 2.5% | Buy | +26.4% |
HII HII Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. | $11.2B | 16.5x | +4.4% | 4.7% | Hold | +47.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
NOC Dividend and Capital Return
NOC returns 3.9% annually — 1.72% through dividends and 2.2% through buybacks.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
3.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
2.2%
Dividend Yield
1.72%
Payout Ratio
30.9%
How NOC Splits Its Return
Div 1.72%
Buyback 2.2%
Dividend 1.72%Buybacks 2.2%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$8.99
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
22Y
3Y Div CAGR
10.0%
5Y Div CAGR
9.7%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.6B
Estimated Shares Retired
3M
Approx. Share Reduction
2.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
142M
At 2.2%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $4.78 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $8.99 | +11.7% | 2.0% | 3.6% |
| 2024 | $8.05 | +9.7% | 3.6% | 5.4% |
| 2023 | $7.34 | +8.6% | 2.1% | 3.7% |
| 2022 | $6.76 | +9.7% | 1.8% | 3.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsNOC Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 35 analysts covering the stock, 20 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 14 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $734, implying +40.7% from the current price of $522. The bear case scenario is $394 and the bull case is $823.
02What is the NOC stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for NOC is $734 based on 35 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $815 (+56.3% from today), and the low-end target is $620 (+18.9%). The base case model target is $625.
03Is Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) stock overvalued in 2026?
NOC trades at 18.7x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for NOC in 2026 are: (1) Contract execution risks — Northrop Grumman faces potential overruns and volatility in key programs like the B-21 Raider stealth bomber, which could impact profitability. (2) Valuation concerns — Shares appear overvalued at 25x P/E, with risks from contract execution and mark-to-market volatility. (3) Competitive market dynamics — The company's 10-K highlights increased focus on competitive risks, including pressure from rivals in defense and aerospace sectors. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Northrop Grumman Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates NOC will report consensus revenue of $44.1B (+4.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $30.86 (-3.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $46.7B in revenue.
06When does Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) report its next earnings?
Northrop Grumman Corporation is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-23. Consensus expects EPS of $6.81 and revenue of $10.8B. Over recent quarters, NOC has beaten EPS estimates 92% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Northrop Grumman Corporation generate?
Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) generated $3.3B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 7.8%. NOC returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.7% yield) and share repurchases ($1.6B TTM).