Upside case
Bull case
$16-40.3%
The bull case prices SFD at 6x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
4
analysts
4 bullish · 0 bearish · 4 covering SFD
Strong Buy
0
Buy
4
Hold
0
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$32
+22.3% vs today
Scenario Range
$1 – $16
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
4
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
9.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $10.3B
SFD price targets
Three scenarios for where SFD stock could go
Current
~$26
Confidence
50 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $26
Bear
$1
Base
$25
Bull
$16
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$25-6.4%
This is close to how the market is already pricing SFD — at roughly 9x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$1-97.7%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 10x multiple contraction could push SFD down roughly 98% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Smithfield Foods, Inc.
SFD · NASDAQConsumer DefensiveAgricultural Farm ProductsDecember year-end
Smithfield Foods is a vertically integrated pork producer that raises hogs, processes them into fresh pork, and manufactures packaged meat products. It generates revenue primarily from fresh pork sales (about 60% of revenue) and packaged meats (about 40%), with additional income from hog production and international exports. The company's key advantage is its vertical integration—controlling everything from hog farming to processing and distribution—which provides supply chain stability and cost efficiencies.
Market Cap
$10.3B
Revenue TTM
$15.6B
Net Income TTM
$1.0B
Net Margin
6.5%
SFD Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+7.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.48/$0.55
Revenue
$3.8B/$3.8B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.58/$0.53
Revenue
$3.7B/$4.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.83/$0.68
Revenue
$4.2B/$4.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.64/$0.58
Revenue
$3.8B/$3.7B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.48/$0.55 | -13.2% | $3.8B/$3.8B | +0.0% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.58/$0.53 | +9.6% | $3.7B/$4.1B | -8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.83/$0.68 | +22.8% | $4.2B/$4.1B | +1.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.64/$0.58 | +10.3% | $3.8B/$3.7B | +2.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$15.1B
-1.1% YoY
FY2
$14.9B
-1.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.35
+7.5% YoY
FY2
$2.42
+2.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$813M
FCF Margin: 5.2%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
SFD beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
SFD Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $15.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Packaged Meats Segment
56.4%
+5.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
MEXICO
100.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Packaged Meats Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 56.4% of FY 2025 revenue, up 5.3% YoY.
MEXICO is the largest reported region at 100.0%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
SFD Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $38 — implies +43.9% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
43.9%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
SFD
10.4x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
59% discount
vs Consumer Defensive Trailing P/E
SFD
10.4x
vs
Consumer Defensive
19.6x
47% discount
vs SFD 5Y Avg P/E
Today
10.4x
vs
5Y Average
—
Benchmark unavailable
Forward PE
9.8x
S&P 500
19.1x
-48%
Consumer Defensive
14.6x
-33%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
10.4x
S&P 500
25.2x
-59%
Consumer Defensive
19.6x
-47%
5Y Avg
—
—
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Consumer Defensive
1.85x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
6.9x
S&P 500
15.3x
-55%
Consumer Defensive
11.4x
-40%
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
14.3x
S&P 500
21.3x
-33%
Consumer Defensive
15.7x
-9%
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/Sales
0.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
-79%
Consumer Defensive
0.8x
-22%
5Y Avg
—
—
Dividend Yield
3.85%
S&P 500
1.88%
+105%
Consumer Defensive
2.73%
+41%
5Y Avg
4.36%
-12%
| Metric | SFD | S&P 500 | Consumer Defensive | 5Y Avg SFD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 9.8x | 19.1x-48% | 14.6x-33% | — |
| Trailing PE | 10.4x | 25.2x-59% | 19.6x-47% | — |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.85x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.9x | 15.3x-55% | 11.4x-40% | — |
| Price/FCF | 14.3x | 21.3x-33% | 15.7x | — |
| Price/Sales | 0.7x | 3.1x-79% | 0.8x-22% | — |
| Dividend Yield | 3.85% | 1.88% | 2.73% | 4.36% |
SFD trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolSFD Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
SFD 12.2% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage — returns 3.9% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$15.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+7.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
13.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
8.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
6.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.55
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$813M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
5.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
12.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
8.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.5B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$857M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.1× FCF
~1.1 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
14.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.9%
Dividend
3.9%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.01
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
40.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
393M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageSFD Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Commodity Price Volatility
SFD's profitability is significantly impacted by fluctuating prices of raw materials, particularly feed for its hog production segment. Rising commodity prices can squeeze margins and affect overall profitability.
High Risk
Geopolitical Tensions and Tariffs
Geopolitical issues, especially those involving the United States and China, pose a risk to SFD's export operations. Increased tariffs or trade disputes can adversely affect sales and profitability in international markets.
High Risk
Legal Challenges
The company is involved in various legal proceedings, including antitrust lawsuits and class-action claims. These litigations present financial risks due to potential settlements and can distract management from core business operations.
Medium
Execution Risk and Cost Pressures
There is a risk associated with the company's ability to execute its strategies, particularly in the second half of the year, amid an uncertain cost environment. SFD has warned of ongoing cost pressures related to freight, packaging, and agricultural inputs, partly due to global conflicts.
Medium
Changing Consumer Preferences
The growing trend towards vegan products and alternative meat producers represents a long-term threat to SFD's market share. This shift in consumer preferences could impact sales and profitability.
Medium
Supply Chain Oversight
As SFD transitions to third-party hog producers, there are potential oversight challenges that could expose the company to lawsuits related to animal welfare concerns. This could lead to reputational damage and financial liabilities.
Lower
Earnings Volatility
The company needs to demonstrate sustainable Earnings Per Share (EPS) levels to increase its share price. Failure to maintain current profitability could lead to stock downturns.
Lower
Acquisition Delays
Delays in major acquisitions can contribute to investor caution and impact the stock's performance. Such delays may hinder growth opportunities and affect market confidence.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why SFD Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Record Financial Performance
Smithfield Foods reported record first-quarter fiscal 2026 results, with net sales of $3.8 billion, up 0.8% year-over-year, and adjusted operating profit reaching a first-quarter record of $339 million. The company also demonstrated consistent profitability, with a net income of $249 million in the recent quarter, up from $227 million year-over-year.
Strong Profit Growth
Full-year 2025 results showcased a robust 30% profit growth and margin expansion. The Packaged Meats segment, a core driver of profitability, showed a 3.6% increase in operating profit in Q1 fiscal 2026.
Attractive Valuation Metrics
SFD's stock is trading at a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of around 10.5-11.6, significantly lower than the food industry average. This favorable forward P/E ratio indicates that the stock is less expensive than many industry rivals and the broader market.
Competitive Dividend Yield
The company offers a competitive dividend yield of approximately 4.3%, placing it in the top 25% of dividend-paying stocks. The dividend payout ratio is considered healthy and sustainable, providing an attractive income stream for investors.
Positive Analyst Sentiment
Analysts generally hold a positive outlook on SFD, with a consensus rating of 'Buy' or 'Strong Buy'. Notably, Morgan Stanley has raised its price target to $31, while Bank of America maintained a 'Buy' rating with a price target of $33.
Strong Financial Health
Smithfield Foods maintains a strong balance sheet with substantial liquidity, having $3.68 billion in available liquidity as of March 29, 2026. The company boasts a conservative net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA leverage ratio of 0.4x, indicating robust financial stability.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
SFD Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$26.17
52W Range Position
58%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$21.08
+24.1% from the low
52-Week High
$29.80
-12.2% from the high
1 Month
-9.20%
3 Month
+6.95%
YTD
+18.1%
1 Year
+17.5%
3Y CAGR
+8.5%
5Y CAGR
+5.0%
10Y CAGR
+2.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
SFD vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
9.8x
vs 14.1x median
-30% below peer median
Revenue Growth
-1.1%
vs +1.7% median
-164% below peer median
Net Margin
6.5%
vs 4.0% median
+61% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SFD SFD Smithfield Foods, Inc. | $10.3B | 9.8x | -1.1% | 6.5% | Buy | +22.3% |
TSN TSN Tyson Foods, Inc. | $24.2B | 17.5x | +2.2% | 0.8% | Buy | +3.2% |
HRL HRL Hormel Foods Corporation | $11.4B | 14.1x | +1.4% | 4.0% | Hold | +31.6% |
WH WH Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc. | $6.3B | 17.3x | +1.7% | 13.4% | Buy | +17.8% |
PPC PPC Pilgrim's Pride Corporation | $7.4B | 8.3x | +3.6% | 4.8% | Hold | +47.0% |
CAG CAG Conagra Brands, Inc. | $6.7B | 8.3x | +0.7% | 0.1% | Hold | +24.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
SFD Dividend and Capital Return
SFD returns 3.8% total yield, led by a 3.81% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
3.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
3.81%
Payout Ratio
40.1%
How SFD Splits Its Return
Div 3.81%
Dividend 3.81%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.01
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
-8.3%
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
393M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.31 | — |
| 2025 | $1.00 | — |
FAQ
7 questionsSFD Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 4 analysts covering the stock, 4 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 0 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $32, implying +22.3% from the current price of $26. The bear case scenario is $1 and the bull case is $16.
02What is the SFD stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for SFD is $32 based on 4 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $32 (+22.3% from today), and the low-end target is $32 (+22.3%). The base case model target is $25.
03Is Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD) stock overvalued in 2026?
SFD trades at 9.8x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for SFD in 2026 are: (1) Commodity Price Volatility — SFD's profitability is significantly impacted by fluctuating prices of raw materials, particularly feed for its hog production segment. (2) Geopolitical Tensions and Tariffs — Geopolitical issues, especially those involving the United States and China, pose a risk to SFD's export operations. (3) Legal Challenges — The company is involved in various legal proceedings, including antitrust lawsuits and class-action claims. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Smithfield Foods, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates SFD will report consensus revenue of $15.1B (-1.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.35 (+7.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $14.9B in revenue.
06When does Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for SFD is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Smithfield Foods, Inc. generate?
Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD) generated $813M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 5.2%. SFD returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.8% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).