Upside case
Bull case
$951+553.1%
IHG would need investors to value it at roughly 168x earnings — about 142x more generous than today's 26x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
23
analysts
12 bullish · 2 bearish · 23 covering IHG
Strong Buy
0
Buy
12
Hold
9
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$151
+3.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$104 – $951
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
23
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
25.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $21.9B
IHG price targets
Three scenarios for where IHG stock could go
Current
~$146
Confidence
43 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $146
Bear
$104
Base
$339
Bull
$951
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$339+132.8%
At 60x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$104-28.3%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 7x multiple contraction could push IHG down roughly 28% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
InterContinental Hotels Group PLC
IHG · NYSEConsumer CyclicalTravel LodgingDecember year-end
InterContinental Hotels Group is a global hotel company that franchises, manages, and leases hotels under well-known brands like Holiday Inn, InterContinental, and Crowne Plaza. It generates revenue primarily through franchise fees and management contracts — with minimal capital tied up in owned properties — and benefits from its massive scale and the IHG Rewards loyalty program that drives repeat business.
Market Cap
$21.9B
Revenue TTM
$10.1B
Net Income TTM
$1.4B
Net Margin
13.7%
IHG Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-318.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q4 2024
Q1 2025
Q3 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q4 2024
EPS
$2.10/$1.98
Revenue
$2.3B/$1.1B
Q1 2025
EPS
$1.74/$2.29
Revenue
$2.6B/$1.2B
Q3 2025
EPS
$3.00/$2.42
Revenue
$2.5B/$1.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.59/$2.57
Revenue
$2.7B/$2.8B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2024 | $2.10/$1.98 | +6.1% | $2.3B/$1.1B | +110.0% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.74/$2.29 | -24.0% | $2.6B/$1.2B | +114.0% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.00/$2.42 | +24.0% | $2.5B/$1.2B | +116.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.59/$2.57 | +0.8% | $2.7B/$2.8B | -4.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$9.9B
-1.8% YoY
FY2
$11.1B
+11.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$9.52
+5.4% YoY
FY2
$11.34
+19.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.6B
FCF Margin: 15.4%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
IHG beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
IHG Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $1.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Americas
63.8%
+2.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Americas is the largest reported region at 63.8%, up 2.3% YoY.
IHG Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $198 — implies +38.9% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
38.9%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
IHG
29.9x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+18% premium
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
IHG
29.9x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
+53% premium
vs IHG 5Y Avg P/E
Today
29.9x
vs
5Y Average
31.1x
In line with benchmark
Forward PE
25.7x
S&P 500
19.1x
+35%
Consumer Cyclical
15.2x
+69%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
29.9x
S&P 500
25.2x
+18%
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
+53%
5Y Avg
31.1x
-4%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Consumer Cyclical
0.95x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
18.9x
S&P 500
15.3x
+24%
Consumer Cyclical
11.4x
+66%
5Y Avg
17.8x
+6%
Price/FCF
25.2x
S&P 500
21.3x
+18%
Consumer Cyclical
15.0x
+68%
5Y Avg
23.2x
+8%
Price/Sales
4.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
+35%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+493%
5Y Avg
3.9x
+9%
Dividend Yield
1.19%
S&P 500
1.88%
-37%
Consumer Cyclical
2.15%
-45%
5Y Avg
1.56%
-24%
| Metric | IHG | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg IHG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 25.7x | 19.1x+35% | 15.2x+69% | — |
| Trailing PE | 29.9x | 25.2x+18% | 19.6x+53% | 31.1x |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 0.95x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.9x | 15.3x+24% | 11.4x+66% | 17.8x |
| Price/FCF | 25.2x | 21.3x+18% | 15.0x+68% | 23.2x |
| Price/Sales | 4.2x | 3.1x+35% | 0.7x+493% | 3.9x |
| Dividend Yield | 1.19% | 1.88% | 2.15% | 1.56% |
IHG trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolIHG Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
IHG generates $1.6B in free cash flow at a 15.4% margin — 159.6% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 5.3% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$10.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+40.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
45.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
22.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
13.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$9.04
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.6B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
15.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
159.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
26.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.1B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$3.5B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
2.2× FCF
~2.2 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
—
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.3%
Dividend
1.2%
Buyback
4.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$907M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.73
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
35.6%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
156M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageIHG Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Factors
Recession, inflation, and rising interest rates can significantly reduce consumer spending and travel demand, impacting IHG's revenue. Geopolitical tensions may lead to increased cyber threats and supply chain disruptions, further complicating operational stability.
High Risk
Competition and Market Dynamics
Aggressive strategies from competitors can threaten IHG's market position, particularly in emerging markets with high hotel room supply growth. Failure to effectively deliver on brand and loyalty programs could hinder IHG's competitive edge and growth ambitions.
High Risk
Operational and Technological Risks
Cybersecurity threats pose a significant risk to IHG's operations, necessitating continuous adaptation of security measures. Additionally, failure to innovate in booking technology and maintain robust technology platforms could adversely affect revenue and growth.
Medium
Talent and Labor
Labor shortages and increasing compensation expectations in certain markets can disrupt IHG's operations. The company also faces challenges related to colleague burnout and managing talent retention, which are critical for maintaining service quality.
Medium
Regulatory and Compliance
Increasing legal and regulatory complexities, particularly around ESG regulations, add uncertainty to IHG's operations. The evolving landscape of corporate governance requires ongoing monitoring and adaptation to ensure compliance.
Lower
Owner and Guest Relations
Owner confidence in IHG's platforms and their financial capacity are crucial for maintaining strong relationships. Changes in consumer demand and travel patterns can also impact IHG's ability to attract and retain guests.
Lower
Financial Risks
Uncertain central bank policies and rising development costs can affect IHG's financial outcomes. Macroeconomic uncertainties, including inflation and potential recessions, pose risks to corporate and hotel supply chains.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why IHG Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strong Financial Performance
IHG has demonstrated robust financial results, with operating profit from reportable segments rising by 13% and adjusted earnings per share increasing by 16% in 2025. The company reported record EBITDA, showcasing strong cost management and operational efficiency.
Consistent Revenue Growth
Revenue has shown consistent growth, increasing by five percent to $5.19 billion in 2025. IHG's trailing twelve-month revenue stands at $10.4 billion, with a net income of $1.39 billion.
Strategic Brand Portfolio Expansion
IHG is actively expanding its brand portfolio through organic growth and strategic acquisitions, including strengthening its Luxury & Lifestyle segment with the Vignette Collection and acquiring Ruby Hotels.
Geographic Expansion in High-Growth Markets
The company is prioritizing expansion in high-growth markets globally, particularly in Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America, while also introducing new brands in Europe.
Positive Outlook for Travel Industry
The global travel and hospitality industry is recovering, with rising demand expected to support IHG's revenue growth. Analysts project continued positive trends, including 2% RevPAR growth and over 13% EPS growth for IHG in 2026.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
IHG Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$145.56
52W Range Position
87%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$109.79
+32.6% from the low
52-Week High
$150.89
-3.5% from the high
1 Month
+7.93%
3 Month
+0.50%
YTD
+3.7%
1 Year
+28.3%
3Y CAGR
+28.0%
5Y CAGR
+15.7%
10Y CAGR
+12.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
IHG vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
25.7x
vs 31.0x median
-17% below peer median
Revenue Growth
-1.8%
vs +8.1% median
-123% below peer median
Net Margin
13.7%
vs 12.6% median
+9% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IHG IHG InterContinental Hotels Group PLC | $21.9B | 25.7x | -1.8% | 13.7% | Buy | +3.5% |
MAR MAR Marriott International, Inc. | $95.1B | 31.0x | +8.1% | 11.9% | Hold | +3.7% |
HLT HLT Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. | $73.2B | 35.5x | +9.3% | 12.6% | Buy | +5.3% |
H H Hyatt Hotels Corporation | $16.2B | 52.6x | +25.0% | -0.5% | Hold | +12.7% |
WH WH Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc. | $6.3B | 17.3x | +1.7% | 13.4% | Buy | +17.8% |
CHH CHH Choice Hotels International, Inc. | $4.8B | 14.8x | +3.4% | 21.5% | Hold | +4.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
IHG Dividend and Capital Return
IHG returns capital mainly through $907M/year in buybacks (4.1% buyback yield), with a modest 1.19% dividend — combining for 5.3% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
5.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
4.1%
Dividend Yield
1.19%
Payout Ratio
35.6%
How IHG Splits Its Return
Div 1.19%
Buyback 4.1%
Dividend 1.19%Buybacks 4.1%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.73
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
3Y
3Y Div CAGR
10.1%
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
2 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$907M
Estimated Shares Retired
6M
Approx. Share Reduction
4.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
156M
At 4.0%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.22 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.73 | +10.1% | 4.1% | 5.4% |
| 2024 | $1.57 | +10.1% | 3.9% | 5.2% |
| 2023 | $1.43 | +10.0% | 5.1% | 6.7% |
| 2022 | $1.30 | — | 4.5% | 6.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsIHG Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 23 analysts covering the stock, 12 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 9 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $151, implying +3.5% from the current price of $146. The bear case scenario is $104 and the bull case is $951.
02What is the IHG stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for IHG is $151 based on 23 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $157 (+7.9% from today), and the low-end target is $145 (-0.4%). The base case model target is $339.
03Is InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG) stock overvalued in 2026?
IHG trades at 25.7x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for IHG in 2026 are: (1) Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Factors — Recession, inflation, and rising interest rates can significantly reduce consumer spending and travel demand, impacting IHG's revenue. (2) Competition and Market Dynamics — Aggressive strategies from competitors can threaten IHG's market position, particularly in emerging markets with high hotel room supply growth. (3) Operational and Technological Risks — Cybersecurity threats pose a significant risk to IHG's operations, necessitating continuous adaptation of security measures. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is InterContinental Hotels Group PLC's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates IHG will report consensus revenue of $9.9B (-1.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $9.52 (+5.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $11.1B in revenue.
06When does InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for IHG is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does InterContinental Hotels Group PLC generate?
InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG) generated $1.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 15.4%. IHG returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.2% yield) and share repurchases ($907M TTM).