Upside case
Bull case
$454+165.4%
IHG would need investors to value it at roughly 79x earnings — about 50x more generous than today's 30x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
23
analysts
11 bullish · 2 bearish · 23 covering IHG
Strong Buy
0
Buy
11
Hold
10
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$159
-7.1% vs today
Scenario Range
$217 – $454
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
23
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
30.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $25.7B
IHG price targets
Three scenarios for where IHG stock could go
Current
~$171
Confidence
40 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $171
Bear
$217
Base
$344
Bull
$454
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$344+101.4%
At 60x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$217+26.9%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push IHG down roughly 27% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
InterContinental Hotels Group PLC
IHG · NYSEConsumer CyclicalTravel LodgingDecember year-end
InterContinental Hotels Group is a global hotel company that franchises, manages, and leases hotels under well-known brands like Holiday Inn, InterContinental, and Crowne Plaza. It generates revenue primarily through franchise fees and management contracts — with minimal capital tied up in owned properties — and benefits from its massive scale and the IHG Rewards loyalty program that drives repeat business.
Market Cap
$25.7B
Revenue TTM
$10.1B
Net Income TTM
$1.4B
Net Margin
13.7%
IHG Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-318.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q4 2024
Q1 2025
Q3 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q4 2024
EPS
$2.10/$1.98
Revenue
$2.3B/$1.1B
Q1 2025
EPS
$1.74/$2.29
Revenue
$2.6B/$1.2B
Q3 2025
EPS
$3.00/$2.42
Revenue
$2.5B/$1.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.59/$2.57
Revenue
$2.7B/$2.8B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2024 | $2.10/$1.98 | +6.1% | $2.3B/$1.1B | +110.0% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.74/$2.29 | -24.0% | $2.6B/$1.2B | +114.0% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.00/$2.42 | +24.0% | $2.5B/$1.2B | +116.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.59/$2.57 | +0.8% | $2.7B/$2.8B | -4.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$10.6B
+5.1% YoY
FY2
$11.1B
+4.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$9.30
+2.9% YoY
FY2
$10.04
+8.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.6B
FCF Margin: 15.4%
Next Earnings
August 11, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.62
Expected Revenue
$2.7B
IHG beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
IHG Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $1.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Americas
63.8%
+2.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Americas is the largest reported region at 63.8%, up 2.3% YoY.
IHG Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $318 — implies +85.8% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
85.8%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
IHG
35.1x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+44% premium
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
IHG
35.1x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
+66% premium
vs IHG 5Y Avg P/E
Today
35.1x
vs
5Y Average
31.1x
+13% premium
Forward PE
30.0x
S&P 500
18.8x
+59%
Consumer Cyclical
16.3x
+83%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
35.1x
S&P 500
24.4x
+44%
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
+66%
5Y Avg
31.1x
+13%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Consumer Cyclical
0.92x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
21.7x
S&P 500
15.2x
+43%
Consumer Cyclical
12.2x
+79%
5Y Avg
17.8x
+22%
Price/FCF
29.6x
S&P 500
20.7x
+43%
Consumer Cyclical
15.6x
+90%
5Y Avg
23.2x
+27%
Price/Sales
5.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
+60%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+611%
5Y Avg
3.9x
+28%
Dividend Yield
1.01%
S&P 500
1.91%
-47%
Consumer Cyclical
2.17%
-53%
5Y Avg
1.56%
-35%
| Metric | IHG | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg IHG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 30.0x | 18.8x+59% | 16.3x+83% | — |
| Trailing PE | 35.1x | 24.4x+44% | 21.2x+66% | 31.1x+13% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.92x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.7x | 15.2x+43% | 12.2x+79% | 17.8x+22% |
| Price/FCF | 29.6x | 20.7x+43% | 15.6x+90% | 23.2x+27% |
| Price/Sales | 5.0x | 3.1x+60% | 0.7x+611% | 3.9x+28% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.01% | 1.91% | 2.17% | 1.56% |
IHG trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolIHG Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
IHG generates $1.6B in free cash flow at a 15.4% margin — 159.6% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 4.5% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$10.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+40.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
45.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
22.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
13.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$9.04
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.6B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
15.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
159.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
26.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.1B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$3.5B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
2.2× FCF
~2.2 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
—
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.5%
Dividend
1.0%
Buyback
3.5%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$907M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.73
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
35.6%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
150M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageIHG Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Medium
Economic sensitivity
The hospitality sector is highly sensitive to global economic sentiment, and post-pandemic stabilization of travel demand may expose IHG to cyclical pressures.
Medium
Consumer preference shifts
Changing consumer preferences toward experiential spending could challenge IHG's traditional business model and require costly adaptations.
High Risk
Regulatory and compliance risks
IHG's operations are subject to extensive regulatory requirements, including SEC filings and modern slavery disclosures, which could lead to financial or reputational penalties if mismanaged.
Lower
Brand portfolio reliance
The company's heavy reliance on legacy brands like Holiday Inn may limit agility in responding to market shifts compared to more diversified competitors.
Medium
Geopolitical exposure
IHG's global footprint in diverse destinations exposes it to geopolitical risks, including local economic instability or regulatory changes in key markets.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why IHG Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Premium brand positioning
InterContinental Hotels & Resorts is positioned as a premium brand offering unique cultural experiences and intuitive hospitality in diverse global destinations.
Direct booking advantage
IHG promotes direct bookings through its platform, offering the best rates and enhancing customer loyalty and revenue capture.
Strong valuation metrics
IHG's forward P/E of 24.10 suggests improving earnings expectations, supported by a trailing P/E of 31.29, indicating growth potential.
Analyst price target upside
Despite current trading above consensus, Wall Street analysts previously projected a $151.50 price target, reflecting underlying bullish sentiment.
Strategic location benefits
Properties like the Mexico City InterContinental leverage prime locations near luxury retail and entertainment, driving high guest demand.
RevPAR growth catalyst
Bullish consensus hinges on accelerating U.S. RevPAR growth from Q2 2026, a key near-term driver for financial performance.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
IHG Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$171.02
52W Range Position
96%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$109.79
+55.8% from the low
52-Week High
$173.38
-1.4% from the high
1 Month
+13.36%
3 Month
+29.97%
YTD
+21.9%
1 Year
+52.5%
3Y CAGR
+35.0%
5Y CAGR
+19.6%
10Y CAGR
+14.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
IHG vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
30.0x
vs 34.2x median
-12% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.1%
vs +6.1% median
-17% below peer median
Net Margin
13.7%
vs 12.6% median
+9% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IHG IHG InterContinental Hotels Group PLC | $25.7B | 30.0x | +5.1% | 13.7% | Buy | -7.1% |
MAR MAR Marriott International, Inc. | $104.5B | 34.2x | +6.1% | 9.7% | Hold | -0.8% |
HLT HLT Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. | $79.4B | 38.6x | +7.8% | 12.6% | Buy | -1.9% |
H H Hyatt Hotels Corporation | $19.3B | 57.2x | +13.2% | -0.5% | Hold | -3.5% |
WH WH Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc. | $6.3B | 17.6x | +1.6% | 13.4% | Buy | +15.8% |
CHH CHH Choice Hotels International, Inc. | $5.3B | 16.2x | +3.9% | 21.5% | Hold | -4.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
IHG Dividend and Capital Return
IHG returns capital mainly through $907M/year in buybacks (3.5% buyback yield), with a modest 1.01% dividend — combining for 4.5% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
4.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.5%
Dividend Yield
1.01%
Payout Ratio
35.6%
How IHG Splits Its Return
Div 1.01%
Buyback 3.5%
Dividend 1.01%Buybacks 3.5%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.73
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
3Y
3Y Div CAGR
10.1%
5Y Div CAGR
8.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
2 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$907M
Estimated Shares Retired
5M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
150M
At 3.5%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.26 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.73 | +10.1% | 4.1% | 5.4% |
| 2024 | $1.57 | +10.1% | 3.9% | 5.2% |
| 2023 | $1.43 | +10.0% | 5.1% | 6.7% |
| 2022 | $1.30 | — | 4.5% | 6.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsIHG Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 23 analysts covering the stock, 11 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 10 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $159, implying -7.1% from the current price of $171. The bear case scenario is $217 and the bull case is $454.
02What is the IHG stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for IHG is $159 based on 23 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $188 (+9.9% from today), and the low-end target is $145 (-15.2%). The base case model target is $344.
03Is InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG) stock overvalued in 2026?
IHG trades at 30.0x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for IHG in 2026 are: (1) Regulatory and compliance risks — IHG's operations are subject to extensive regulatory requirements, including SEC filings and modern slavery disclosures, which could lead to financial or reputational penalties if mismanaged. (2) Economic sensitivity — The hospitality sector is highly sensitive to global economic sentiment, and post-pandemic stabilization of travel demand may expose IHG to cyclical pressures. (3) Consumer preference shifts — Changing consumer preferences toward experiential spending could challenge IHG's traditional business model and require costly adaptations. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is InterContinental Hotels Group PLC's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates IHG will report consensus revenue of $10.6B (+5.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $9.30 (+2.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $11.1B in revenue.
06When does InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG) report its next earnings?
InterContinental Hotels Group PLC is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-11. Consensus expects EPS of $2.62 and revenue of $2.7B. Over recent quarters, IHG has beaten EPS estimates 50% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does InterContinental Hotels Group PLC generate?
InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG) generated $1.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 15.4%. IHG returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.0% yield) and share repurchases ($907M TTM).