Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing H more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Hyatt Hotels Corporation (H) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
49
analysts
19 bullish · 5 bearish · 49 covering H
Strong Buy
1
Buy
18
Hold
25
Sell
5
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$191
+12.7% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
49
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
52.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $16.2B
H price targets
Three scenarios for where H stock could go
Current
~$169
Confidence
44 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Hyatt Hotels Corporation
H · NYSEConsumer CyclicalTravel LodgingDecember year-end
Hyatt Hotels is a global hospitality company that manages, franchises, and owns a portfolio of luxury and upscale hotels, resorts, and vacation properties. It generates revenue primarily through hotel management fees and franchise royalties — with additional income from owned hotel operations — while strategically shifting toward a capital-light, fee-based model. The company's competitive advantage lies in its premium brand portfolio — including Park Hyatt, Miraval, and Grand Hyatt — which commands strong pricing power and customer loyalty in the luxury segment.
Market Cap
$16.2B
Revenue TTM
$6.2B
Net Income TTM
-$34M
Net Margin
-0.5%
H Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+41.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.53/$0.62
Revenue
$1.8B/$1.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$-0.30/$0.46
Revenue
$883M/$1.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.33/$0.29
Revenue
$1.8B/$1.8B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.63/$0.57
Revenue
$1.7B/$1.7B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.53/$0.62 | +146.8% | $1.8B/$1.7B | +5.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $-0.30/$0.46 | -165.6% | $883M/$1.8B | -51.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.33/$0.29 | +358.6% | $1.8B/$1.8B | -0.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.63/$0.57 | +10.5% | $1.7B/$1.7B | +0.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$7.8B
+25.0% YoY
FY2
$9.9B
+27.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.35
+1053.7% YoY
FY2
$7.17
+114.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$63M
FCF Margin: 1.0%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
H beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
H Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $7.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Management and Franchising
68.0%
+8.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
69.8%
-1.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Management and Franchising is the largest disclosed segment at 68.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 8.0% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 69.8%, down 1.6% YoY.
H Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $154 — implies -6.0% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
6.0%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
H
-313.6x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
1343% discount
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
H
-313.6x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
1702% discount
vs H 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-313.6x
vs
5Y Average
32.8x
1056% discount
Forward PE
52.6x
S&P 500
19.1x
+176%
Consumer Cyclical
15.2x
+246%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-313.6x
S&P 500
25.2x
-1343%
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
-1702%
5Y Avg
32.8x
-1056%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Consumer Cyclical
0.95x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
22.8x
S&P 500
15.3x
+49%
Consumer Cyclical
11.4x
+101%
5Y Avg
18.5x
+23%
Price/FCF
101.7x
S&P 500
21.3x
+377%
Consumer Cyclical
15.0x
+578%
5Y Avg
44.9x
+127%
Price/Sales
2.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
-28%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+218%
5Y Avg
4.2x
-46%
Dividend Yield
0.35%
S&P 500
1.88%
-81%
Consumer Cyclical
2.15%
-84%
5Y Avg
0.36%
-2%
| Metric | H | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg H |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 52.6x | 19.1x+176% | 15.2x+246% | — |
| Trailing PE | -313.6x | 25.2x-1343% | 19.6x-1702% | 32.8x-1056% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 0.95x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.8x | 15.3x+49% | 11.4x+101% | 18.5x+23% |
| Price/FCF | 101.7x | 21.3x+377% | 15.0x+578% | 44.9x+127% |
| Price/Sales | 2.3x | 3.1x-28% | 0.7x+218% | 4.2x-46% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.35% | 1.88% | 2.15% | 0.36% |
H trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolH Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
H returns 2.3% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$6.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+93.6%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
17.6%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
9.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-0.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-0.35
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$63M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
1.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
5.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-0.2%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$788M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$4.0B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
63.7× FCF
~63.7 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-0.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.3%
Dividend
0.4%
Buyback
2.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$320M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.60
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
96M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageH Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
Based on the latest company results, valuation, and market data
High Risk
UNITED STATES exposure
UNITED STATES represents 69.8% of disclosed revenue and changed -1.6% year over year. A sharper slowdown, policy change, or competitive shift in that market would hit the revenue base quickly and could pull expectations toward the lower end of the valuation range.
High Risk
Management and Franchising dependence
Management and Franchising contributes 68.0% of the disclosed revenue mix, with the latest annual change at 8.0%. If demand in the lead segment cools, the rest of the portfolio may not be large enough to fully offset the slowdown.
Medium
Valuation de-rating
H trades at -313.6x trailing earnings versus 25.2x for the S&P 500 and 19.6x for its sector. If earnings delivery or sentiment slips, the stock could re-rate lower and move closer to the bear case target of —.
Medium
Estimate execution
The next fiscal year requires Street estimates of $7.8B in revenue (25.0% growth) and $3.35 in EPS. Missing those operating targets would undermine the premium multiple investors are paying today.
Lower
Capital return support
Part of the per-share support comes from capital returns, backed by $63M in trailing free cash flow, a 2.0% buyback yield, and a 0.4% dividend yield. If cash generation softens, the EPS lift and downside cushion from repurchases can narrow.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why H Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
Based on recent company results and analyst estimates
High-margin cash engine
Hyatt Hotels Corporation already operates from a position of scale, with 17.6% gross margin, 9.2% operating margin, and $63M in trailing free cash flow. That combination gives management room to keep funding product investment without relying on outside capital.
Owned And Leased Segment still matters
Owned And Leased Segment accounts for 19.7% of disclosed revenue and the latest annual change was 16.7%. When the biggest revenue lines are still holding up, even modest execution improvement can translate into meaningful earnings leverage.
Upside and capital returns align
Consensus still points to $191, or 12.7% upside, while the modeled bull target reaches —. If $7.8B in forward revenue and $3.35 in EPS are delivered, ongoing shareholder returns running at 2.3% can amplify the equity upside.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
H Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$169.37
52W Range Position
81%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$120.36
+40.7% from the low
52-Week High
$180.53
-6.2% from the high
1 Month
+16.01%
3 Month
+3.99%
YTD
+2.3%
1 Year
+39.3%
3Y CAGR
+12.9%
5Y CAGR
+16.5%
10Y CAGR
+13.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
H vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
52.6x
vs 25.7x median
+105% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+25.0%
vs +3.4% median
+628% above peer median
Net Margin
-0.5%
vs 13.4% median
-104% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
H H Hyatt Hotels Corporation | $16.2B | 52.6x | +25.0% | -0.5% | Hold | +12.7% |
MAR MAR Marriott International, Inc. | $95.1B | 31.0x | +8.1% | 11.9% | Hold | +3.7% |
HLT HLT Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. | $73.2B | 35.5x | +9.3% | 12.6% | Buy | +5.3% |
IHG IHG InterContinental Hotels Group PLC | $21.9B | 25.7x | -1.8% | 13.7% | Buy | +3.5% |
WH WH Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc. | $6.3B | 17.3x | +1.7% | 13.4% | Buy | +17.8% |
CHH CHH Choice Hotels International, Inc. | $4.8B | 14.8x | +3.4% | 21.5% | Hold | +4.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
H Dividend and Capital Return
H returns capital mainly through $320M/year in buybacks (2.0% buyback yield), with a modest 0.35% dividend — combining for 2.3% total shareholder yield.
Dividend UnknownFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
2.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
2.0%
Dividend Yield
0.35%
Payout Ratio
—
How H Splits Its Return
Div 0.35%
Buyback 2.0%
Dividend 0.35%Buybacks 2.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.60
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
3Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
24.6%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$320M
Estimated Shares Retired
2M
Approx. Share Reduction
2.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
96M
At 2.0%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.30 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.60 | 0.0% | 2.1% | 2.5% |
| 2024 | $0.60 | +33.3% | 7.4% | 7.8% |
| 2023 | $0.45 | — | 3.2% | 3.6% |
| 2020 | $0.20 | -73.7% | 0.9% | 1.2% |
FAQ
7 questionsH Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Hyatt Hotels Corporation (H) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Hyatt Hotels Corporation (H) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 49 analysts covering the stock, 19 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 25 rate it Hold, and 5 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $191, implying +12.7% from the current price of $169.
02What is the H stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for H is $191 based on 49 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $219 (+29.3% from today), and the low-end target is $171 (+1.0%).
03Is Hyatt Hotels Corporation (H) stock overvalued in 2026?
H trades at 52.6x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Hyatt Hotels Corporation (H) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for H in 2026 are: (1) UNITED STATES exposure — UNITED STATES represents 69. (2) Management and Franchising dependence — Management and Franchising contributes 68. (3) Valuation de-rating — H trades at -313. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Hyatt Hotels Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates H will report consensus revenue of $7.8B (+25.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.35 (+1053.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $9.9B in revenue.
06When does Hyatt Hotels Corporation (H) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for H is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Hyatt Hotels Corporation generate?
Hyatt Hotels Corporation (H) generated $63M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 1.0%. H returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.4% yield) and share repurchases ($320M TTM).