Upside case
Bull case
$94-53.4%
The bull case prices H at 27x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Hyatt Hotels Corporation (H) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
49
analysts
19 bullish · 5 bearish · 49 covering H
Strong Buy
1
Buy
18
Hold
25
Sell
5
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$195
-3.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$45 – $94
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
49
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
57.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $19.3B
H price targets
Three scenarios for where H stock could go
Current
~$202
Confidence
44 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $202
Bear
$45
Base
$71
Bull
$94
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$71-64.6%
At 20x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$45-77.7%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 44x multiple contraction could push H down roughly 78% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Hyatt Hotels Corporation
H · NYSEConsumer CyclicalTravel LodgingDecember year-end
Hyatt Hotels is a global hospitality company that manages, franchises, and owns a portfolio of luxury and upscale hotels, resorts, and vacation properties. It generates revenue primarily through hotel management fees and franchise royalties — with additional income from owned hotel operations — while strategically shifting toward a capital-light, fee-based model. The company's competitive advantage lies in its premium brand portfolio — including Park Hyatt, Miraval, and Grand Hyatt — which commands strong pricing power and customer loyalty in the luxury segment.
Market Cap
$19.3B
Revenue TTM
$6.2B
Net Income TTM
-$34M
Net Margin
-0.5%
H Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+41.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.53/$0.62
Revenue
$1.8B/$1.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$-0.30/$0.46
Revenue
$883M/$1.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.33/$0.29
Revenue
$1.8B/$1.8B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.63/$0.57
Revenue
$1.7B/$1.7B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.53/$0.62 | +146.8% | $1.8B/$1.7B | +5.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $-0.30/$0.46 | -165.6% | $883M/$1.8B | -51.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.33/$0.29 | +358.6% | $1.8B/$1.8B | -0.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.63/$0.57 | +10.5% | $1.7B/$1.7B | +0.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$7.0B
+13.2% YoY
FY2
$7.8B
+10.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.33
+763.6% YoY
FY2
$3.97
+70.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$63M
FCF Margin: 1.0%
Next Earnings
August 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.89
Expected Revenue
$1.8B
H beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
H Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $7.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Management and Franchising
68.0%
+8.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
69.8%
-1.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Management and Franchising is the largest disclosed segment at 68.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 8.0% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 69.8%, down 1.6% YoY.
H Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $107 — implies -47.0% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
47.0%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
H
-374.2x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
1631% discount
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
H
-374.2x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
1869% discount
vs H 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-374.2x
vs
5Y Average
32.8x
1240% discount
Forward PE
57.2x
S&P 500
18.8x
+204%
Consumer Cyclical
16.3x
+250%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-374.2x
S&P 500
24.4x
-1631%
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
-1869%
5Y Avg
32.8x
-1240%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Consumer Cyclical
0.92x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
26.3x
S&P 500
15.2x
+73%
Consumer Cyclical
12.2x
+116%
5Y Avg
18.5x
+42%
Price/FCF
121.4x
S&P 500
20.7x
+487%
Consumer Cyclical
15.6x
+680%
5Y Avg
44.9x
+170%
Price/Sales
2.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
-13%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+287%
5Y Avg
4.2x
-35%
Dividend Yield
0.30%
S&P 500
1.91%
-85%
Consumer Cyclical
2.17%
-86%
5Y Avg
0.36%
-18%
| Metric | H | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg H |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 57.2x | 18.8x+204% | 16.3x+250% | — |
| Trailing PE | -374.2x | 24.4x-1631% | 21.2x-1869% | 32.8x-1240% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.92x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 26.3x | 15.2x+73% | 12.2x+116% | 18.5x+42% |
| Price/FCF | 121.4x | 20.7x+487% | 15.6x+680% | 44.9x+170% |
| Price/Sales | 2.7x | 3.1x-13% | 0.7x+287% | 4.2x-35% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.30% | 1.91% | 2.17% | 0.36% |
H trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolH Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
H returns 2.0% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$6.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+93.6%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
17.6%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
9.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-0.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-0.35
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$63M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
1.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
5.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-0.2%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$788M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$4.0B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
63.7× FCF
~63.7 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-0.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.0%
Dividend
0.3%
Buyback
1.7%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$320M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.60
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
96M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageH Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Scale disadvantage
Hyatt's smaller scale and limited loyalty program reach create competitive disadvantages compared to larger peers.
High Risk
Geographic concentration
Heavy reliance on the Americas exposes Hyatt to regional economic downturns and market saturation risks.
Medium
Cyclical risk
Hyatt's business model is susceptible to economic cycles, impacting demand for travel and hospitality services.
Medium
Strategic execution
Failed transactions like Andaz London Liverpool Street indicate challenges in executing strategic plans.
Medium
Earnings revisions
Negative post-Q1 revisions reflect ongoing financial pressures, though long-term outlook remains intact.
Lower
Brand diversification
Hyatt's global presence and diverse brand portfolio mitigate some concentration risks.
Lower
Loyalty program
World of Hyatt offers member benefits, but its reach is limited compared to competitors.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why H Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Asset-light strategy
Hyatt is transitioning to an asset-light model, targeting 90% of earnings from fee-based operations, which could improve margins and reduce capital intensity.
Luxury travel trend
The durability of the luxury travel trend supports Hyatt's premium positioning, with potential for sustained revenue growth in high-end markets.
Global expansion
Hyatt's expansion into underpenetrated markets in Europe and Asia could drive long-term growth, with a bull case projecting a 10% EPS CAGR.
Fee-based earnings growth
The shift toward fee-based operations is expected to enhance profitability and provide more stable revenue streams compared to owned properties.
Dividend affirmation
Hyatt's affirmation of a quarterly dividend of $0.15 per share signals financial stability and commitment to returning capital to shareholders.
Brand loyalty
World of Hyatt's loyalty program drives repeat business and direct bookings, offering exclusive savings and benefits to members.
Revenue resilience
Strong Q1 2026 revenue of $1.75 billion and net income of $38 million demonstrate Hyatt's ability to perform well in cyclical markets.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
H Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$202.09
52W Range Position
94%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$127.59
+58.4% from the low
52-Week High
$206.86
-2.3% from the high
1 Month
+19.30%
3 Month
+39.01%
YTD
+22.1%
1 Year
+52.5%
3Y CAGR
+22.7%
5Y CAGR
+20.4%
10Y CAGR
+15.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
H vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
57.2x
vs 30.0x median
+91% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+13.2%
vs +5.1% median
+159% above peer median
Net Margin
-0.5%
vs 13.4% median
-104% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
H H Hyatt Hotels Corporation | $19.3B | 57.2x | +13.2% | -0.5% | Hold | -3.5% |
MAR MAR Marriott International, Inc. | $104.5B | 34.2x | +6.1% | 9.7% | Hold | -0.8% |
HLT HLT Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. | $79.4B | 38.6x | +7.8% | 12.6% | Buy | -1.9% |
IHG IHG InterContinental Hotels Group PLC | $25.7B | 30.0x | +5.1% | 13.7% | Buy | -7.1% |
WH WH Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc. | $6.3B | 17.6x | +1.6% | 13.4% | Buy | +15.8% |
CHH CHH Choice Hotels International, Inc. | $5.3B | 16.2x | +3.9% | 21.5% | Hold | -4.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
H Dividend and Capital Return
H returns capital mainly through $320M/year in buybacks (1.7% buyback yield), with a modest 0.30% dividend — combining for 2.0% total shareholder yield.
Dividend UnknownFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
2.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.7%
Dividend Yield
0.30%
Payout Ratio
—
How H Splits Its Return
Div 0.30%
Buyback 1.7%
Dividend 0.30%Buybacks 1.7%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.60
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
-9.1%
5Y Div CAGR
24.6%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$320M
Estimated Shares Retired
2M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
96M
At 1.7%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.30 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.60 | 0.0% | 2.1% | 2.5% |
| 2024 | $0.60 | +33.3% | 7.4% | 7.8% |
| 2023 | $0.45 | — | 3.2% | 3.6% |
| 2020 | $0.20 | -73.7% | 0.9% | 1.2% |
FAQ
7 questionsH Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Hyatt Hotels Corporation (H) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Hyatt Hotels Corporation (H) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 49 analysts covering the stock, 19 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 25 rate it Hold, and 5 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $195, implying -3.5% from the current price of $202. The bear case scenario is $45 and the bull case is $94.
02What is the H stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for H is $195 based on 49 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $221 (+9.4% from today), and the low-end target is $180 (-10.9%). The base case model target is $71.
03Is Hyatt Hotels Corporation (H) stock overvalued in 2026?
H trades at 57.2x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Hyatt Hotels Corporation (H) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for H in 2026 are: (1) Scale disadvantage — Hyatt's smaller scale and limited loyalty program reach create competitive disadvantages compared to larger peers. (2) Geographic concentration — Heavy reliance on the Americas exposes Hyatt to regional economic downturns and market saturation risks. (3) Cyclical risk — Hyatt's business model is susceptible to economic cycles, impacting demand for travel and hospitality services. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Hyatt Hotels Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates H will report consensus revenue of $7.0B (+13.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.33 (+763.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $7.8B in revenue.
06When does Hyatt Hotels Corporation (H) report its next earnings?
Hyatt Hotels Corporation is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-06. Consensus expects EPS of $0.89 and revenue of $1.8B. Over recent quarters, H has beaten EPS estimates 58% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Hyatt Hotels Corporation generate?
Hyatt Hotels Corporation (H) generated $63M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 1.0%. H returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.3% yield) and share repurchases ($320M TTM).