Upside case
Bull case
$126+173.5%
GFI would need investors to value it at roughly 22x earnings — about 14x more generous than today's 8x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Gold Fields Limited (GFI) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
18
analysts
8 bullish · 0 bearish · 18 covering GFI
Strong Buy
0
Buy
8
Hold
10
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$54
+17.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$27 – $126
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
18
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
7.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $41.4B
GFI price targets
Three scenarios for where GFI stock could go
Current
~$46
Confidence
37 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $46
Bear
$27
Base
$131
Bull
$126
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$131+183.8%
At 22x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$27-42.3%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 3x multiple contraction could push GFI down roughly 42% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Gold Fields Limited
GFI · NYSEBasic MaterialsGoldDecember year-end
Gold Fields is a global gold mining company that operates nine mines across five countries. It generates revenue primarily from gold production — selling approximately 2.34 million gold-equivalent ounces annually — with additional income from copper byproducts. The company's competitive advantage lies in its geographically diversified portfolio of long-life, high-quality assets with substantial mineral reserves of 48.6 million ounces.
Market Cap
$41.4B
Revenue TTM
$10.9B
Net Income TTM
$2.5B
Net Margin
23.2%
GFI Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+65.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2024
Q1 2025
Q3 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2024
EPS
$0.43/$0.34
Revenue
$2.1B/$2.1B
Q1 2025
EPS
$0.96/$0.46
Revenue
$3.1B/$3.1B
Q3 2025
EPS
$1.15/$1.19
Revenue
$3.5B/$3.6B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.12/$2.35
Revenue
$5.3B/$5.3B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2024 | $0.43/$0.34 | +27.8% | $2.1B/$2.1B | +0.0% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.96/$0.46 | +107.8% | $3.1B/$3.1B | -0.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.15/$1.19 | -3.4% | $3.5B/$3.6B | -2.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.12/$2.35 | -9.8% | $5.3B/$5.3B | +0.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$12.4B
+13.2% YoY
FY2
$13.7B
+10.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.57
+26.1% YoY
FY2
$3.92
+9.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.0B
FCF Margin: 18.7%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
GFI beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
GFI Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2022
Total disclosed revenue $4.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Gold
95.3%
+3.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Gold is the largest disclosed segment at 95.3% of FY 2022 revenue, up 3.1% YoY.
GFI Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Overvalued
Fair value est. $31 — implies -25.1% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
25.1%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
GFI
33.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+33% premium
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
GFI
33.5x
vs
Basic Materials
22.9x
+46% premium
vs GFI 5Y Avg P/E
Today
33.5x
vs
5Y Average
13.1x
+156% premium
Forward PE
7.9x
S&P 500
19.1x
-59%
Basic Materials
15.4x
-49%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
33.5x
S&P 500
25.2x
+33%
Basic Materials
22.9x
+46%
5Y Avg
13.1x
+156%
PEG Ratio
0.69x
S&P 500
1.75x
-61%
Basic Materials
1.22x
-44%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
16.0x
S&P 500
15.3x
+5%
Basic Materials
11.4x
+40%
5Y Avg
5.0x
+219%
Price/FCF
58.3x
S&P 500
21.3x
+173%
Basic Materials
27.5x
+112%
5Y Avg
19.0x
+207%
Price/Sales
7.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
+154%
Basic Materials
2.0x
+304%
5Y Avg
2.4x
+238%
Dividend Yield
0.85%
S&P 500
1.88%
-55%
Basic Materials
1.37%
-38%
5Y Avg
2.81%
-70%
| Metric | GFI | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg GFI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 7.9x | 19.1x-59% | 15.4x-49% | — |
| Trailing PE | 33.5x | 25.2x+33% | 22.9x+46% | 13.1x+156% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.69x | 1.75x-61% | 1.22x-44% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.0x | 15.3x | 11.4x+40% | 5.0x+219% |
| Price/FCF | 58.3x | 21.3x+173% | 27.5x+112% | 19.0x+207% |
| Price/Sales | 7.9x | 3.1x+154% | 2.0x+304% | 2.4x+238% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.85% | 1.88% | 1.37% | 2.81% |
GFI trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolGFI Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
GFI generates $2.0B in free cash flow at a 18.7% margin — 24.0% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$10.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+24.6%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
43.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
43.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
23.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.83
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$2.0B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
18.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
24.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
23.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$860M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$2.1B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.0× FCF
~1.0 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
40.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.8%
Dividend
0.8%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.39
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
28.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
896M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageGFI Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Trading Volume Dependence
GFI Group’s revenue is heavily tied to trading volumes across its markets. Economic downturns, such as the European financial crisis, can erode profitability and weaken debt‑service capacity.
High Risk
Regulatory & Legal Risk
The firm operates under extensive regulation, and changes in laws or regulatory approvals across regions can increase compliance costs and limit permissible activities.
High Risk
Gold Price Sensitivity
Gold Fields’ profitability and valuation are highly contingent on gold price movements; a decline in gold prices directly compresses margins and cash flow.
Medium
Technology Reliance
GFI Group depends on technology‑based trading systems; outages, cyber incidents, or system failures could disrupt trading, increase operational risk, and expose the firm to fraud or unauthorized trades.
Medium
Cost Inflation
Gold Fields faces rising sustaining and operating costs, which can erode profit margins if not offset by higher production or price gains.
Lower
Geopolitical & Jurisdictional Risk
The company’s operations span South Africa, Ghana, Chile, and Peru, exposing it to permitting, labor, and fiscal risks that could disrupt production or increase costs.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why GFI Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Revenue & Earnings Surge 2025
Gold Fields reported revenue up 68.24% and earnings up 186.54% in 2025 versus the prior year. Earnings growth is projected to continue with a 10.66% increase expected next year.
Ramp‑Up at Salares Norte & Acquisitions
The company’s growth pipeline is bolstered by the ramp‑up at Salares Norte and recent acquisitions, driving a peer‑leading production increase forecast from 2024 to 2026.
Strong Balance Sheet
Gold Fields maintains a low debt‑to‑equity ratio of 0.35, underscoring solid financial health and flexibility for future investments.
Gold Price Structural Tailwind
Record gold prices and gold overtaking U.S. Treasuries as the world’s largest reserve asset provide a macro tailwind that benefits producers like Gold Fields.
Institutional Accumulation
Major investment firms are expanding stakes and taking new positions in GFI, indicating growing institutional confidence.
Momentum & Relative Strength
Shares have posted significant gains over the past quarter and year, outperforming the broader market, with a very high Relative Strength score that signals market leadership.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
GFI Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$46.20
52W Range Position
63%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$19.35
+138.8% from the low
52-Week High
$61.64
-25.0% from the high
1 Month
-1.03%
3 Month
-13.66%
YTD
+6.1%
1 Year
+97.2%
3Y CAGR
+40.1%
5Y CAGR
+35.9%
10Y CAGR
+25.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
GFI vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
7.9x
vs 9.8x median
-20% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+13.2%
vs +35.0% median
-62% below peer median
Net Margin
23.2%
vs 30.5% median
-24% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GFI GFI Gold Fields Limited | $41.4B | 7.9x | +13.2% | 23.2% | Hold | +17.8% |
NEM NEM Newmont Corporation | $127.5B | 11.0x | +35.1% | 30.5% | Buy | +19.5% |
AEM AEM Agnico Eagle Mines Limited | $95.1B | 13.6x | +31.7% | 37.5% | Buy | +25.2% |
KGC KGC Kinross Gold Corporation | $36.9B | 9.8x | +29.7% | 36.0% | Buy | +37.3% |
AU AU AngloGold Ashanti Plc | $49.8B | 9.1x | +35.0% | 27.6% | Buy | +34.9% |
EGO EGO Eldorado Gold Corporation | $6.3B | 7.4x | +35.8% | 28.0% | Hold | +66.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
GFI Dividend and Capital Return
GFI returns 0.9% total yield, led by a 0.94% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
0.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
0.94%
Payout Ratio
28.2%
How GFI Splits Its Return
Div 0.94%
Dividend 0.94%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.39
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
30.2%
5Y Div CAGR
37.2%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
2 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
896M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.44 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.78 | +100.2% | — | — |
| 2024 | $0.39 | -6.1% | 0.0% | 3.0% |
| 2023 | $0.41 | +17.6% | 0.0% | 2.8% |
| 2022 | $0.35 | -1.3% | 0.0% | 3.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsGFI Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Gold Fields Limited (GFI) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Gold Fields Limited (GFI) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 18 analysts covering the stock, 8 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 10 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $54, implying +17.8% from the current price of $46. The bear case scenario is $27 and the bull case is $126.
02What is the GFI stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for GFI is $54 based on 18 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $61 (+32.0% from today), and the low-end target is $45 (-2.6%). The base case model target is $131.
03Is Gold Fields Limited (GFI) stock overvalued in 2026?
GFI trades at 7.9x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Gold Fields Limited (GFI) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for GFI in 2026 are: (1) Trading Volume Dependence — GFI Group’s revenue is heavily tied to trading volumes across its markets. (2) Regulatory & Legal Risk — The firm operates under extensive regulation, and changes in laws or regulatory approvals across regions can increase compliance costs and limit permissible activities. (3) Gold Price Sensitivity — Gold Fields’ profitability and valuation are highly contingent on gold price movements; a decline in gold prices directly compresses margins and cash flow. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Gold Fields Limited's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates GFI will report consensus revenue of $12.4B (+13.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.57 (+26.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $13.7B in revenue.
06When does Gold Fields Limited (GFI) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for GFI is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Gold Fields Limited generate?
Gold Fields Limited (GFI) generated $2.0B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 18.7%. GFI returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.9% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).