Upside case
Bull case
$646+182.9%
JNJ would need investors to value it at roughly 56x earnings — about 36x more generous than today's 20x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
40
analysts
21 bullish · 3 bearish · 40 covering JNJ
Strong Buy
0
Buy
21
Hold
16
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$252
+10.1% vs today
Scenario Range
$309 – $646
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
40
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
19.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $550.4B
JNJ price targets
Three scenarios for where JNJ stock could go
Current
~$228
Confidence
62 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $228
Bear
$309
Base
$490
Bull
$646
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$490+114.7%
At 42x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$309+35.3%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push JNJ down roughly 35% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Johnson & Johnson
JNJ · NYSEHealthcareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralDecember year-end
Johnson & Johnson is a global healthcare company focused on innovative medicines and medical technology. It generates revenue primarily from its Innovative Medicine segment — prescription drugs for complex diseases like cancer and autoimmune disorders — and its MedTech segment — medical devices including orthopedics, surgery tools, and contact lenses. The company's competitive advantage lies in its massive R&D scale, deep scientific expertise, and diversified portfolio of patented pharmaceuticals and medical devices.
Market Cap
$550.4B
Revenue TTM
$92.1B
Net Income TTM
$25.1B
Net Margin
27.3%
JNJ Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+3.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.77/$2.68
Revenue
$23.7B/$22.9B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.80/$2.76
Revenue
$24.0B/$23.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.46/$2.46
Revenue
$24.6B/$24.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.70/$2.68
Revenue
$24.1B/$23.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.77/$2.68 | +3.4% | $23.7B/$22.9B | +3.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.80/$2.76 | +1.4% | $24.0B/$23.8B | +1.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.46/$2.46 | +0.0% | $24.6B/$24.1B | +1.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.70/$2.68 | +0.7% | $24.1B/$23.6B | +1.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$98.6B
+7.0% YoY
FY2
$105.8B
+7.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$11.35
+9.7% YoY
FY2
$12.43
+9.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$19.1B
FCF Margin: 20.7%
Next Earnings
July 15, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.83
Expected Revenue
$25.0B
JNJ beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
JNJ Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $88.8B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Innovative Medicine
64.1%
+4.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
56.6%
+8.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Innovative Medicine is the largest disclosed segment at 64.1% of FY 2024 revenue, up 4.0% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 56.6%, up 8.3% YoY.
JNJ Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $191 — implies -16.3% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
16.3%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
JNJ
39.4x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+61% premium
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
JNJ
39.4x
vs
Healthcare
22.1x
+78% premium
vs JNJ 5Y Avg P/E
Today
39.4x
vs
5Y Average
22.6x
+74% premium
Forward PE
19.7x
S&P 500
18.8x
+5%
Healthcare
18.3x
+8%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
39.4x
S&P 500
24.4x
+61%
Healthcare
22.1x
+78%
5Y Avg
22.6x
+74%
PEG Ratio
35.11x
S&P 500
1.66x
+2015%
Healthcare
1.59x
+2108%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
19.1x
S&P 500
15.2x
+26%
Healthcare
14.2x
+34%
5Y Avg
15.3x
+25%
Price/FCF
27.7x
S&P 500
20.7x
+34%
Healthcare
18.5x
+50%
5Y Avg
22.2x
+25%
Price/Sales
6.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
+100%
Healthcare
2.6x
+135%
5Y Avg
5.1x
+22%
Dividend Yield
2.13%
S&P 500
1.91%
+11%
Healthcare
1.50%
+42%
5Y Avg
2.74%
-22%
| Metric | JNJ | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg JNJ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 19.7x | 18.8x | 18.3x | — |
| Trailing PE | 39.4x | 24.4x+61% | 22.1x+78% | 22.6x+74% |
| PEG Ratio | 35.11x | 1.66x+2015% | 1.59x+2108% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.1x | 15.2x+26% | 14.2x+34% | 15.3x+25% |
| Price/FCF | 27.7x | 20.7x+34% | 18.5x+50% | 22.2x+25% |
| Price/Sales | 6.2x | 3.1x+100% | 2.6x+135% | 5.1x+22% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.13% | 1.91% | 1.50% | 2.74% |
JNJ trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolJNJ Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
JNJ generates $19.1B in free cash flow at a 20.7% margin — 20.7% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 2.6% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$92.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+3.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
68.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
26.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
27.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$10.34
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$19.1B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
20.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
20.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
13.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$24.1B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$12.5B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.7× FCF
~0.7 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
31.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.6%
Dividend
2.1%
Buyback
0.4%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$2.4B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$4.87
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
84.1%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
2.4B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageJNJ Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Legal Exposure
Johnson & Johnson faces significant legal risks, including ongoing litigation related to its products and historical legal challenges.
High Risk
Valuation Premium
The stock trades at a 26% premium to sector median with a trailing P/E of 27.6x, raising concerns about overvaluation.
Medium
Pricing Pressure
The company is exposed to pricing and policy pressures, particularly in its pharmaceutical and medical device segments.
Medium
Acquisition Risk
Execution risks associated with acquisitions could impact financial performance and integration efforts.
Medium
Fixed Costs
Higher fixed costs may weigh on margins, especially if revenue growth slows or operational inefficiencies arise.
Lower
Defensive Beta
With a beta of 0.26, JNJ has a defensive risk profile, reducing volatility but potentially limiting upside in bullish markets.
Lower
Margin Safety
The DCF-implied intrinsic range suggests an 11% margin of safety, providing some downside protection.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why JNJ Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Strong dividend yield
JNJ is a quarterly dividend stock, paying $1.30 per share as of 2026, appealing to income-focused investors.
Bullish technical setup
JNJ is showing a clean bullish continuation setup and has broken resistance, indicating potential upward momentum.
Innovative healthcare solutions
Johnson & Johnson is actively improving treatment options for rare diseases and common cancers, driving long-term growth.
Resilient business model
With a history dating back to 1886, JNJ has a proven track record of stability and innovation in healthcare.
Investment thesis support
Analysts provide a bullish thesis on JNJ, highlighting its moat, growth scenarios, and risk management strategies.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
JNJ Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$228.39
52W Range Position
77%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$149.04
+53.2% from the low
52-Week High
$251.71
-9.3% from the high
1 Month
-0.23%
3 Month
-3.75%
YTD
+10.1%
1 Year
+51.5%
3Y CAGR
+11.6%
5Y CAGR
+7.1%
10Y CAGR
+7.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
JNJ vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
19.7x
vs 16.1x median
+22% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+7.0%
vs +4.2% median
+67% above peer median
Net Margin
27.3%
vs 28.1% median
-3% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JNJ JNJ Johnson & Johnson | $550.4B | 19.7x | +7.0% | 27.3% | Buy | +10.1% |
ABT ABT Abbott Laboratories | $153.7B | 16.1x | +9.9% | 31.9% | Buy | +44.2% |
PFE PFE Pfizer Inc. | $143.5B | 8.5x | 0.0% | 11.8% | Hold | +6.1% |
MRK MRK Merck & Co., Inc. | $281.2B | 22.2x | +4.2% | 28.1% | Buy | +15.6% |
LLY LLY Eli Lilly and Company | $1.04T | 30.0x | +15.1% | 35.0% | Buy | +15.8% |
BMY BMY Bristol-Myers Squibb Company | $110.3B | 8.5x | +1.0% | 15.0% | Hold | +15.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
JNJ Dividend and Capital Return
JNJ returns 2.6% total yield, led by a 2.13% dividend, raised 56 consecutive years.
Dividend WatchFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
2.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.4%
Dividend Yield
2.13%
Payout Ratio
84.1%
How JNJ Splits Its Return
Div 2.13%
Dividend 2.13%Buybacks 0.4%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$4.87
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
56Y
3Y Div CAGR
4.9%
5Y Div CAGR
5.2%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$2.4B
Estimated Shares Retired
11M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
2.4B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.64 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $5.14 | +4.7% | — | — |
| 2024 | $4.91 | +4.5% | 0.7% | 4.0% |
| 2023 | $4.70 | +5.6% | 1.3% | 4.2% |
| 2022 | $4.45 | +6.2% | 1.3% | 3.8% |
FAQ
7 questionsJNJ Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 40 analysts covering the stock, 21 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 16 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $252, implying +10.1% from the current price of $228. The bear case scenario is $309 and the bull case is $646.
02What is the JNJ stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for JNJ is $252 based on 40 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $283 (+23.9% from today), and the low-end target is $208 (-8.9%). The base case model target is $490.
03Is Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) stock overvalued in 2026?
JNJ trades at 19.7x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for JNJ in 2026 are: (1) Legal Exposure — Johnson & Johnson faces significant legal risks, including ongoing litigation related to its products and historical legal challenges. (2) Valuation Premium — The stock trades at a 26% premium to sector median with a trailing P/E of 27. (3) Pricing Pressure — The company is exposed to pricing and policy pressures, particularly in its pharmaceutical and medical device segments. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Johnson & Johnson's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates JNJ will report consensus revenue of $98.6B (+7.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $11.35 (+9.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $105.8B in revenue.
06When does Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) report its next earnings?
Johnson & Johnson is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-15. Consensus expects EPS of $2.83 and revenue of $25.0B. Over recent quarters, JNJ has beaten EPS estimates 92% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Johnson & Johnson generate?
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) generated $19.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 20.7%. JNJ returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.1% yield) and share repurchases ($2.4B TTM).