Upside case
Bull case
$556+146.4%
JNJ would need investors to value it at roughly 48x earnings — about 29x more generous than today's 19x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
40
analysts
20 bullish · 3 bearish · 40 covering JNJ
Strong Buy
0
Buy
20
Hold
17
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$249
+10.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$322 – $556
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
40
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
19.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $543.6B
JNJ price targets
Three scenarios for where JNJ stock could go
Current
~$226
Confidence
65 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $226
Bear
$322
Base
$487
Bull
$556
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$487+115.9%
At 42x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$322+42.7%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push JNJ down roughly 43% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Johnson & Johnson
JNJ · NYSEHealthcareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralDecember year-end
Johnson & Johnson is a global healthcare company focused on innovative medicines and medical technology. It generates revenue primarily from its Innovative Medicine segment — prescription drugs for complex diseases like cancer and autoimmune disorders — and its MedTech segment — medical devices including orthopedics, surgery tools, and contact lenses. The company's competitive advantage lies in its massive R&D scale, deep scientific expertise, and diversified portfolio of patented pharmaceuticals and medical devices.
Market Cap
$543.6B
Revenue TTM
$92.1B
Net Income TTM
$25.1B
Net Margin
27.3%
JNJ Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+3.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.77/$2.68
Revenue
$23.7B/$22.9B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.80/$2.76
Revenue
$24.0B/$23.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.46/$2.46
Revenue
$24.6B/$24.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.70/$2.68
Revenue
$24.1B/$23.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.77/$2.68 | +3.4% | $23.7B/$22.9B | +3.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.80/$2.76 | +1.4% | $24.0B/$23.8B | +1.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.46/$2.46 | +0.0% | $24.6B/$24.1B | +1.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.70/$2.68 | +0.7% | $24.1B/$23.6B | +1.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$98.0B
+6.4% YoY
FY2
$102.2B
+4.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$11.44
+10.6% YoY
FY2
$12.50
+9.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$19.1B
FCF Margin: 20.7%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
JNJ beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
JNJ Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $88.8B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Innovative Medicine
64.1%
+4.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
56.6%
+8.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Innovative Medicine is the largest disclosed segment at 64.1% of FY 2024 revenue, up 4.0% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 56.6%, up 8.3% YoY.
JNJ Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Overvalued
Fair value est. $176 — implies -22.6% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
22.6%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
JNJ
39.0x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+55% premium
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
JNJ
39.0x
vs
Healthcare
22.2x
+76% premium
vs JNJ 5Y Avg P/E
Today
39.0x
vs
5Y Average
22.6x
+72% premium
Forward PE
19.5x
S&P 500
19.1x
+2%
Healthcare
18.8x
+3%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
39.0x
S&P 500
25.1x
+55%
Healthcare
22.2x
+76%
5Y Avg
22.6x
+72%
PEG Ratio
34.64x
S&P 500
1.72x
+1919%
Healthcare
1.53x
+2167%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
18.9x
S&P 500
15.2x
+24%
Healthcare
14.0x
+35%
5Y Avg
15.3x
+23%
Price/FCF
27.4x
S&P 500
21.1x
+30%
Healthcare
18.6x
+48%
5Y Avg
22.2x
+23%
Price/Sales
6.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
+96%
Healthcare
2.8x
+118%
5Y Avg
5.1x
+20%
Dividend Yield
2.16%
S&P 500
1.87%
+15%
Healthcare
1.42%
+52%
5Y Avg
2.74%
-21%
| Metric | JNJ | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg JNJ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 19.5x | 19.1x | 18.8x | — |
| Trailing PE | 39.0x | 25.1x+55% | 22.2x+76% | 22.6x+72% |
| PEG Ratio | 34.64x | 1.72x+1919% | 1.53x+2167% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.9x | 15.2x+24% | 14.0x+35% | 15.3x+23% |
| Price/FCF | 27.4x | 21.1x+30% | 18.6x+48% | 22.2x+23% |
| Price/Sales | 6.1x | 3.1x+96% | 2.8x+118% | 5.1x+20% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.16% | 1.87% | 1.42% | 2.74% |
JNJ trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolJNJ Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
JNJ generates $19.1B in free cash flow at a 20.7% margin — 20.7% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 2.6% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$92.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+3.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
68.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
26.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
27.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$10.34
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$19.1B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
20.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
20.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
13.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$24.1B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$12.5B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.7× FCF
~0.7 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
31.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.6%
Dividend
2.2%
Buyback
0.4%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$2.4B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$4.87
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
84.1%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
2.4B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageJNJ Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Legal & Regulatory Exposure
Johnson & Johnson faces thousands of talc lawsuits alleging cancer risk and state opioid crisis claims, plus ongoing product liability and patent disputes. Potential penalties and settlements could reach billions, directly eroding margins.
High Risk
Patent Expiration of Stelara
Stelara generated $10.9 billion in 2023, about 13% of total revenue. Loss of exclusivity will open the market to generics/biosimilars, likely cutting sales by 30‑50% in the next 2‑3 years.
Medium
Supply Chain & Manufacturing Disruptions
Health crises or operational failures can halt production, delay clinical trials, and trigger recalls. Such events could cost millions in lost sales and remediation.
Medium
R&D Pipeline & Spending
J&J’s R&D spend is lower than peers, raising uncertainty around clinical success and regulatory approvals. A failure to launch new products could slow revenue growth.
Medium
Pricing & Reimbursement Pressures
Healthcare reforms and third‑party payor negotiations are tightening margins in Innovative Medicine and MedTech. Adverse pricing changes could reduce net sales by 5‑10% annually.
Lower
Cybersecurity Threats
J&J must protect vast digital assets; a breach could expose patient data and disrupt operations. While unlikely to cause immediate revenue loss, reputational damage could impact future sales.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why JNJ Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Diversified Portfolio Focus
Johnson & Johnson’s post‑Kenvue spin‑off has sharpened its focus on higher‑margin Pharmaceutical and MedTech segments, providing stability and reducing risk during market fluctuations. The company’s diversified business across pharmaceuticals and medical devices underpins long‑term growth visibility.
Robust R&D and Innovation Pipeline
Significant R&D investment fuels a steady stream of new products. Phase 3 data for ICOTYDE, an oral IL‑23 receptor blocker for plaque psoriasis, shows maintained efficacy and a consistent safety profile, reinforcing its market position. The company is also advancing oncology and neuroscience portfolios through acquisitions.
Consistent Shareholder Returns
Johnson & Johnson has delivered over 60 consecutive years of dividend increases, making it attractive for income‑focused investors. The dividend payout ratio is considered healthy and sustainable, underscoring the company’s commitment to shareholder returns.
Strategic Growth Initiatives in MedTech
The company is expanding in interventional cardiovascular, robotics, and digital surgery within its MedTech segment. It aims to generate a significant portion of MedTech sales from new products, positioning it for future upside.
Strong Financial Guidance
Johnson & Johnson projects operational sales growth of 5% to 7% annually from 2025 to 2030. It has raised its full‑year 2025 guidance to anticipate reported sales growth between 5.1% and 5.6%, with revenue potentially reaching $100.5 billion by mid‑2026, a 6.7% year‑over‑year increase.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
JNJ Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$225.59
52W Range Position
75%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$146.12
+54.4% from the low
52-Week High
$251.71
-10.4% from the high
1 Month
-6.38%
3 Month
-5.13%
YTD
+8.8%
1 Year
+45.5%
3Y CAGR
+11.5%
5Y CAGR
+6.2%
10Y CAGR
+7.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
JNJ vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
19.5x
vs 15.9x median
+22% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+6.4%
vs +3.0% median
+109% above peer median
Net Margin
27.3%
vs 28.1% median
-3% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JNJ JNJ Johnson & Johnson | $543.6B | 19.5x | +6.4% | 27.3% | Buy | +10.5% |
ABT ABT Abbott Laboratories | $151.6B | 15.9x | +9.3% | 31.9% | Buy | +47.6% |
PFE PFE Pfizer Inc. | $150.4B | 8.9x | -2.7% | 11.8% | Hold | +3.1% |
MRK MRK Merck & Co., Inc. | $279.5B | 22.1x | +3.0% | 28.1% | Buy | +14.3% |
LLY LLY Eli Lilly and Company | $933.7B | 28.6x | +14.3% | 35.0% | Buy | +27.4% |
BMY BMY Bristol-Myers Squibb Company | $116.2B | 9.0x | -0.6% | 15.0% | Hold | +8.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
JNJ Dividend and Capital Return
JNJ returns 2.6% total yield, led by a 2.16% dividend, raised 55 consecutive years.
Dividend WatchFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
2.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.4%
Dividend Yield
2.16%
Payout Ratio
84.1%
How JNJ Splits Its Return
Div 2.16%
Dividend 2.16%Buybacks 0.4%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$4.87
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
55Y
3Y Div CAGR
4.9%
5Y Div CAGR
5.2%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$2.4B
Estimated Shares Retired
11M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
2.4B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.64 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $5.14 | +4.7% | — | — |
| 2024 | $4.91 | +4.5% | 0.7% | 4.0% |
| 2023 | $4.70 | +5.6% | 1.3% | 4.2% |
| 2022 | $4.45 | +6.2% | 1.3% | 3.8% |
FAQ
7 questionsJNJ Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 40 analysts covering the stock, 20 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 17 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $249, implying +10.5% from the current price of $226. The bear case scenario is $322 and the bull case is $556.
02What is the JNJ stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for JNJ is $249 based on 40 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $283 (+25.5% from today), and the low-end target is $208 (-7.8%). The base case model target is $487.
03Is Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) stock overvalued in 2026?
JNJ trades at 19.5x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for JNJ in 2026 are: (1) Legal & Regulatory Exposure — Johnson & Johnson faces thousands of talc lawsuits alleging cancer risk and state opioid crisis claims, plus ongoing product liability and patent disputes. (2) Patent Expiration of Stelara — Stelara generated $10. (3) Supply Chain & Manufacturing Disruptions — Health crises or operational failures can halt production, delay clinical trials, and trigger recalls. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Johnson & Johnson's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates JNJ will report consensus revenue of $98.0B (+6.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $11.44 (+10.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $102.2B in revenue.
06When does Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for JNJ is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Johnson & Johnson generate?
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) generated $19.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 20.7%. JNJ returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.2% yield) and share repurchases ($2.4B TTM).