Upside case
Bull case
$1536+55.5%
LLY would need investors to value it at roughly 45x earnings — about 16x more generous than today's 29x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
45
analysts
33 bullish · 3 bearish · 45 covering LLY
Strong Buy
0
Buy
33
Hold
9
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$1258
+27.4% vs today
Scenario Range
$413 – $1536
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
45
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
28.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $933.7B
LLY price targets
Three scenarios for where LLY stock could go
Current
~$988
Confidence
63 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $988
Bear
$413
Base
$1641
Bull
$1536
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$1641+66.1%
At 48x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$413-58.2%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 17x multiple contraction could push LLY down roughly 58% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Eli Lilly and Company
LLY · NYSEHealthcareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralDecember year-end
Eli Lilly is a global pharmaceutical company that discovers, develops, and markets innovative medicines for serious diseases like diabetes, cancer, and autoimmune disorders. It generates revenue primarily from drug sales — with diabetes treatments like Trulicity and Mounjaro contributing over 50% of revenue — and from oncology and immunology products. The company's competitive advantage lies in its deep research and development capabilities, particularly in diabetes and obesity treatments where it has established a strong patent-protected portfolio.
Market Cap
$933.7B
Revenue TTM
$72.2B
Net Income TTM
$25.3B
Net Margin
35.0%
LLY Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
82%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+29.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$6.31/$5.60
Revenue
$15.6B/$14.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$7.02/$5.69
Revenue
$17.6B/$16.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$7.54/$6.91
Revenue
$19.3B/$17.9B
Q2 2026
EPS
$8.55/$6.97
Revenue
$19.8B/$17.8B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $6.31/$5.60 | +12.7% | $15.6B/$14.7B | +5.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.02/$5.69 | +23.4% | $17.6B/$16.1B | +9.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $7.54/$6.91 | +9.1% | $19.3B/$17.9B | +7.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $8.55/$6.97 | +22.7% | $19.8B/$17.8B | +11.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$82.6B
+14.3% YoY
FY2
$95.3B
+15.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$32.64
+15.7% YoY
FY2
$38.12
+16.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$13.6B
FCF Margin: 18.8%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
LLY beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
LLY Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $65.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Product
93.5%
+49.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
66.7%
+43.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Product is the largest disclosed segment at 93.5% of FY 2025 revenue, up 49.6% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 66.7%, up 43.1% YoY.
LLY Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Overvalued
Fair value est. $750 — implies -22.1% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
22.1%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
LLY
43.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+71% premium
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
LLY
43.1x
vs
Healthcare
22.2x
+94% premium
vs LLY 5Y Avg P/E
Today
43.1x
vs
5Y Average
63.2x
32% discount
Forward PE
28.6x
S&P 500
19.1x
+50%
Healthcare
18.8x
+52%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
43.1x
S&P 500
25.1x
+71%
Healthcare
22.2x
+94%
5Y Avg
63.2x
-32%
PEG Ratio
1.49x
S&P 500
1.72x
-13%
Healthcare
1.53x
-2%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
31.0x
S&P 500
15.2x
+104%
Healthcare
14.0x
+121%
5Y Avg
35.8x
-13%
Price/FCF
104.1x
S&P 500
21.1x
+394%
Healthcare
18.6x
+461%
5Y Avg
77.3x
+35%
Price/Sales
14.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
+358%
Healthcare
2.8x
+411%
5Y Avg
13.4x
+7%
Dividend Yield
0.61%
S&P 500
1.87%
-68%
Healthcare
1.42%
-57%
5Y Avg
0.84%
-28%
| Metric | LLY | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg LLY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 28.6x | 19.1x+50% | 18.8x+52% | — |
| Trailing PE | 43.1x | 25.1x+71% | 22.2x+94% | 63.2x-32% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.49x | 1.72x-13% | 1.53x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 31.0x | 15.2x+104% | 14.0x+121% | 35.8x-13% |
| Price/FCF | 104.1x | 21.1x+394% | 18.6x+461% | 77.3x+35% |
| Price/Sales | 14.3x | 3.1x+358% | 2.8x+411% | 13.4x |
| Dividend Yield | 0.61% | 1.87% | 1.42% | 0.84% |
LLY trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolLLY Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
LLY generates $13.6B in free cash flow at a 18.8% margin — 41.8% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 1.0% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$72.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+47.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
83.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
45.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
35.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$28.21
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$13.6B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
18.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
41.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
22.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$7.2B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$35.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
2.6× FCF
~2.6 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
101.2%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.0%
Dividend
0.6%
Buyback
0.4%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$4.1B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$6.00
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
26.1%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
945M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageLLY Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Patent Expirations & Competition
Trulicity’s patent and data protections are set to expire, exposing it to generic and biosimilar competition that could erode market share and pricing power. Similar expirations for competing products may intensify pricing pressure across Eli Lilly’s portfolio.
High Risk
Pricing Pressures & Market Dynamics
Governments and payers demand greater value, while competitors like Novo Nordisk are aggressively cutting GLP‑1 prices. A looming price war could squeeze margins on key drugs such as Mounjaro and Zepbound.
Medium
Product Liability & Litigation
Eli Lilly faces thousands of lawsuits over GLP‑1 side effects, with escalating claims for severe adverse events. Growing litigation could lead to significant payouts and reputational damage.
Medium
R&D Uncertainty
The company abandoned an Alzheimer’s candidate that worsened patient symptoms, highlighting the high cost and risk of drug development. Failure to bring new products to market could jeopardize revenue replacement for expiring patents.
Lower
Inventory & Sales Risks
Bloating inventory and potential channel stuffing raise the risk of write‑downs and future sales slowdowns. Ineffective sales execution could further dampen revenue growth.
Lower
Operational Challenges
Manufacturing disruptions, shortages, and labor constraints could limit product supply and delay regulatory approvals, impacting revenue streams.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why LLY Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Dominance in GLP‑1 Obesity & Diabetes
Eli Lilly leads the GLP‑1 market with tirzepatide (Mounjaro and Zepbound), which has delivered explosive sales and high profit margins. The company’s infrastructure and molecule performance consistently outperform competitors, positioning it for continued market share gains.
Oral GLP‑1 Pipeline Breakthrough
Orforglipron, an oral GLP‑1 candidate, achieved strong Phase III results, offering a first‑in‑class oral therapy that could capture a new patient segment and accelerate commercialization.
Robust 2025 Revenue & Earnings Growth
In 2025, Lilly’s revenue rose 44.70% year‑over‑year while earnings surged 94.90%. Analysts project a 32.54% earnings increase for the following year, underscoring continued financial momentum.
Precision Biology Platform Advantage
The company’s end‑to‑end manufacturing and long patent life create structural advantages, enabling long‑term compounding growth across metabolic, neurodegenerative, and immune disorder portfolios.
Global Expansion as Growth Lever
With a large portion of sales still U.S.‑centric, expanding into international markets presents a significant upside, potentially unlocking new revenue streams and diversifying geographic risk.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
LLY Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$988.19
52W Range Position
71%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$623.78
+58.4% from the low
52-Week High
$1133.95
-12.9% from the high
1 Month
+6.64%
3 Month
-3.20%
YTD
-8.5%
1 Year
+20.3%
3Y CAGR
+32.2%
5Y CAGR
+38.7%
10Y CAGR
+29.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
LLY vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
28.6x
vs 9.0x median
+217% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+14.3%
vs +3.0% median
+370% above peer median
Net Margin
35.0%
vs 17.2% median
+104% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LLY LLY Eli Lilly and Company | $933.7B | 28.6x | +14.3% | 35.0% | Buy | +27.4% |
NVO NVO Novo Nordisk A/S | $151.4B | 2.1x | +8.1% | 33.1% | Buy | +4.7% |
PFE PFE Pfizer Inc. | $150.4B | 8.9x | -2.7% | 11.8% | Hold | +3.1% |
MRK MRK Merck & Co., Inc. | $279.5B | 22.1x | +3.0% | 28.1% | Buy | +14.3% |
AZN AZN AstraZeneca PLC | $281.0B | 17.6x | +9.5% | 17.2% | Buy | +16.4% |
BMY BMY Bristol-Myers Squibb Company | $116.2B | 9.0x | -0.6% | 15.0% | Hold | +8.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
LLY Dividend and Capital Return
LLY returns 1.0% total yield, led by a 0.61% dividend, raised 11 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
1.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.4%
Dividend Yield
0.61%
Payout Ratio
26.1%
How LLY Splits Its Return
Div 0.61%
Buyback 0.4%
Dividend 0.61%Buybacks 0.4%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$6.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
11Y
3Y Div CAGR
15.2%
5Y Div CAGR
15.2%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$4.1B
Estimated Shares Retired
4M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
945M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.73 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $6.00 | +15.4% | 0.4% | 1.0% |
| 2024 | $5.20 | +15.0% | 0.4% | 1.0% |
| 2023 | $4.52 | +15.3% | 0.1% | 0.9% |
| 2022 | $3.92 | +15.3% | 0.4% | 1.4% |
FAQ
7 questionsLLY Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 45 analysts covering the stock, 33 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 9 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $1258, implying +27.4% from the current price of $988. The bear case scenario is $413 and the bull case is $1536.
02What is the LLY stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for LLY is $1258 based on 45 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $1350 (+36.6% from today), and the low-end target is $1070 (+8.3%). The base case model target is $1641.
03Is Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) stock overvalued in 2026?
LLY trades at 28.6x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for LLY in 2026 are: (1) Patent Expirations & Competition — Trulicity’s patent and data protections are set to expire, exposing it to generic and biosimilar competition that could erode market share and pricing power. (2) Pricing Pressures & Market Dynamics — Governments and payers demand greater value, while competitors like Novo Nordisk are aggressively cutting GLP‑1 prices. (3) Product Liability & Litigation — Eli Lilly faces thousands of lawsuits over GLP‑1 side effects, with escalating claims for severe adverse events. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Eli Lilly and Company's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates LLY will report consensus revenue of $82.6B (+14.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $32.64 (+15.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $95.3B in revenue.
06When does Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for LLY is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Eli Lilly and Company generate?
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) generated $13.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 18.8%. LLY returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.6% yield) and share repurchases ($4.1B TTM).