Upside case
Bull case
$110+31.7%
K would need investors to value it at roughly 29x earnings — about 7x more generous than today's 22x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Kellanova (K) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
34
analysts
13 bullish · 1 bearish · 34 covering K
Strong Buy
0
Buy
13
Hold
20
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$74
-11.3% vs today
Scenario Range
$52 – $110
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
34
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
22.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $29.0B
K price targets
Three scenarios for where K stock could go
Current
~$83
Confidence
66 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $83
Bear
$52
Base
$78
Bull
$110
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$78-6.6%
This is close to how the market is already pricing K — at roughly 21x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$52-38.2%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 8x multiple contraction could push K down roughly 38% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Kellanova
K · NYSEConsumer DefensiveFood ConfectionersDecember year-end
Kellanova is a global packaged food company that manufactures and markets snacks, cereals, and convenience foods under iconic brands like Kellogg's, Pringles, and Cheez-It. It generates revenue primarily through retail sales of its snack portfolio — which includes crackers, savory snacks, and toaster pastries — and its cereal and frozen foods segments, with snacks representing the largest portion of sales. The company's competitive advantage lies in its portfolio of well-established, globally recognized brands with strong consumer loyalty and extensive retail distribution networks.
Market Cap
$29.0B
Revenue TTM
$12.6B
Net Income TTM
$1.3B
Net Margin
10.6%
K Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+23.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q1 2025
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q1 2025
EPS
$0.92/$0.31
Revenue
$3.1B/$3.1B
Q2 2025
EPS
$0.90/$1.01
Revenue
$3.1B/$3.2B
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.94/$0.99
Revenue
$3.2B/$3.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.94/$0.87
Revenue
$3.3B/$3.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | $0.92/$0.31 | +196.8% | $3.1B/$3.1B | +0.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.90/$1.01 | -10.9% | $3.1B/$3.2B | -3.0% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.94/$0.99 | -5.0% | $3.2B/$3.2B | +0.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.94/$0.87 | +8.4% | $3.3B/$3.2B | +0.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$12.7B
+0.3% YoY
FY2
$12.7B
-0.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.70
-2.9% YoY
FY2
$3.63
-2.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$650M
FCF Margin: 5.1%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
K beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
K Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $12.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Retail Channel Snacks
63.7%
+0.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
North America Other
51.6%
+0.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Retail Channel Snacks is the largest disclosed segment at 63.7% of FY 2024 revenue, up 0.2% YoY.
North America Other is the largest reported region at 51.6%, up 0.1% YoY.
K Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Overvalued
Fair value est. $70 — implies -16.5% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
16.5%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
K
21.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
15% discount
vs Consumer Defensive Trailing P/E
K
21.5x
vs
Consumer Defensive
19.6x
+10% premium
vs K 5Y Avg P/E
Today
21.5x
vs
5Y Average
19.0x
+13% premium
Forward PE
22.1x
S&P 500
19.1x
+16%
Consumer Defensive
14.6x
+51%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
21.5x
S&P 500
25.2x
-15%
Consumer Defensive
19.6x
+10%
5Y Avg
19.0x
+13%
PEG Ratio
3.19x
S&P 500
1.75x
+83%
Consumer Defensive
1.85x
+72%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
15.5x
S&P 500
15.3x
+2%
Consumer Defensive
11.4x
+35%
5Y Avg
15.0x
+3%
Price/FCF
25.6x
S&P 500
21.3x
+20%
Consumer Defensive
15.7x
+63%
5Y Avg
19.2x
+33%
Price/Sales
2.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
-27%
Consumer Defensive
0.8x
+169%
5Y Avg
1.7x
+31%
Dividend Yield
2.69%
S&P 500
1.88%
+43%
Consumer Defensive
2.73%
-2%
5Y Avg
3.61%
-26%
| Metric | K | S&P 500 | Consumer Defensive | 5Y Avg K |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 22.1x | 19.1x+16% | 14.6x+51% | — |
| Trailing PE | 21.5x | 25.2x-15% | 19.6x | 19.0x+13% |
| PEG Ratio | 3.19x | 1.75x+83% | 1.85x+72% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.5x | 15.3x | 11.4x+35% | 15.0x |
| Price/FCF | 25.6x | 21.3x+20% | 15.7x+63% | 19.2x+33% |
| Price/Sales | 2.3x | 3.1x-27% | 0.8x+169% | 1.7x+31% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.69% | 1.88% | 2.73% | 3.61% |
K trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolK Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
K 14.7% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage — returns 2.7% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$12.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-1.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
36.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
14.7%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
10.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.81
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$650M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
5.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
14.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
8.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$694M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$5.6B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
8.7× FCF
~8.7 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
31.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.7%
Dividend
2.7%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.24
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
57.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
346M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageK Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Debt Levels
Kellanova carries $6.23 billion in debt against a net cash position of –$5.99 billion, yielding a debt‑to‑equity ratio of 1.45. Rising interest rates could increase borrowing costs and strain cash flow, potentially impacting profitability and capital structure.
High Risk
M&A Integration
The pending acquisition by Mars, Inc. is slated to close in 2025. Integrating Kellanova’s brands into Mars Snacking may face operational, cultural, and synergy challenges, risking disruptions to revenue and margin performance.
Medium
Financial Guidance
Kellanova reported an 11.7% decline in AMEA segment volumes and has lowered its EPS guidance for the second half of the fiscal year due to softer gross margin expansion and foreign‑exchange impacts, signaling potential earnings volatility.
Medium
Promotional Dependence
Approximately 38% of Kellanova’s sales are driven by promotions. Heavy reliance on price‑driven demand could erode margins if promotional activity is reduced or if consumers shift away from discounted purchases.
Medium
Competitive Landscape
Kellanova’s portfolio, including Pringles and Cheez‑It, competes in a crowded packaged‑food sector. Intense rivalry and changing consumer preferences could compress market share and pressure pricing power.
Lower
Economic & Market Risks
A K‑shaped U.S. economy, rising inflation, and higher interest rates may curtail discretionary spending, especially among lower‑income households, potentially dampening demand for Kellanova’s products.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why K Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Organic Revenue Growth & Margin Upswing
Kellanova delivered 4.0% organic revenue growth in the latest period, while gross margin expanded by 340 basis points and operating margin by 250 basis points, underscoring robust profitability in the packaged food sector.
Promotion-Driven Sales Momentum
The company’s promotional strategy drives 38% of sales, indicating effective marketing that sustains demand and supports revenue expansion.
Global Brand Expansion in Emerging Markets
Kellanova’s extensive global footprint is bolstered by expanding brands such as Pringles in emerging markets, positioning the firm for long‑term growth.
Attractive Dividend Yield
With a 2.78% dividend yield, Kellanova offers a payout that exceeds the bottom 25% of dividend-paying stocks, reflecting a healthy and sustainable dividend policy.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
K Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$83.44
52W Range Position
97%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$76.48
+9.1% from the low
52-Week High
$83.65
-0.3% from the high
1 Month
—
3 Month
—
YTD
—
1 Year
+1.1%
3Y CAGR
+7.7%
5Y CAGR
+5.7%
10Y CAGR
+1.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
K vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
22.1x
vs 10.2x median
+115% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+0.3%
vs +1.4% median
-78% below peer median
Net Margin
10.6%
vs 4.0% median
+162% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
K K Kellanova | $29.0B | 22.1x | +0.3% | 10.6% | Hold | -11.3% |
GIS GIS General Mills, Inc. | $18.7B | 10.2x | -0.1% | 12.1% | Hold | +32.8% |
CPB CPB Campbell Soup Company | $6.2B | 9.6x | +2.7% | 5.5% | Hold | +23.2% |
SJM SJM The J. M. Smucker Company | $10.3B | 10.7x | +3.6% | -14.1% | Hold | +17.1% |
CAG CAG Conagra Brands, Inc. | $6.7B | 8.3x | +0.7% | 0.1% | Hold | +24.7% |
HRL HRL Hormel Foods Corporation | $11.4B | 14.1x | +1.4% | 4.0% | Hold | +31.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
K Dividend and Capital Return
K returns 2.7% total yield, led by a 2.69% dividend, raised 21 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
2.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
2.69%
Payout Ratio
57.8%
How K Splits Its Return
Div 2.69%
Dividend 2.69%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.24
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
21Y
3Y Div CAGR
1.5%
5Y Div CAGR
1.4%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
3 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
346M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $2.30 | +1.8% | — | — |
| 2024 | $2.26 | +1.3% | 0.0% | 2.8% |
| 2023 | $2.23 | +1.6% | 0.9% | 5.0% |
| 2022 | $2.20 | +1.3% | 1.3% | 4.8% |
| 2021 | $2.17 | +1.3% | 1.2% | 5.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsK Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Kellanova (K) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Kellanova (K) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 34 analysts covering the stock, 13 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 20 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $74, implying -11.3% from the current price of $83. The bear case scenario is $52 and the bull case is $110.
02What is the K stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for K is $74 based on 34 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $87 (+4.3% from today), and the low-end target is $60 (-28.1%). The base case model target is $78.
03Is Kellanova (K) stock overvalued in 2026?
K trades at 22.1x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Kellanova (K) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for K in 2026 are: (1) Debt Levels — Kellanova carries $6. (2) M&A Integration — The pending acquisition by Mars, Inc. (3) Financial Guidance — Kellanova reported an 11. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Kellanova's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates K will report consensus revenue of $12.7B (+0.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.70 (-2.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $12.7B in revenue.
06When does Kellanova (K) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for K is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Kellanova generate?
Kellanova (K) generated $650M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 5.1%. K returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.7% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).