Upside case
Bull case
$107+28.8%
K would need investors to value it at roughly 28x earnings — about 6x more generous than today's 22x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Kellanova (K) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
34
analysts
13 bullish · 1 bearish · 34 covering K
Strong Buy
0
Buy
13
Hold
20
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$74
-11.3% vs today
Scenario Range
$51 – $107
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
34
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
22.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $29.0B
K price targets
Three scenarios for where K stock could go
Current
~$83
Confidence
54 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $83
Bear
$51
Base
$82
Bull
$107
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$82-2.3%
This is close to how the market is already pricing K — at roughly 22x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$51-38.4%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 8x multiple contraction could push K down roughly 38% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Kellanova
K · NYSEConsumer DefensiveFood ConfectionersDecember year-end
Kellanova is a global packaged food company that manufactures and markets snacks, cereals, and convenience foods under iconic brands like Kellogg's, Pringles, and Cheez-It. It generates revenue primarily through retail sales of its snack portfolio — which includes crackers, savory snacks, and toaster pastries — and its cereal and frozen foods segments, with snacks representing the largest portion of sales. The company's competitive advantage lies in its portfolio of well-established, globally recognized brands with strong consumer loyalty and extensive retail distribution networks.
Market Cap
$29.0B
Revenue TTM
$12.6B
Net Income TTM
$1.3B
Net Margin
10.6%
K Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+23.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q1 2025
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q1 2025
EPS
$0.92/$0.31
Revenue
$3.1B/$3.1B
Q2 2025
EPS
$0.90/$1.01
Revenue
$3.1B/$3.2B
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.94/$0.99
Revenue
$3.2B/$3.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.94/$0.87
Revenue
$3.3B/$3.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | $0.92/$0.31 | +196.8% | $3.1B/$3.1B | +0.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.90/$1.01 | -10.9% | $3.1B/$3.2B | -3.0% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.94/$0.99 | -5.0% | $3.2B/$3.2B | +0.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.94/$0.87 | +8.4% | $3.3B/$3.2B | +0.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$12.8B
+1.3% YoY
FY2
$13.1B
+2.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.76
-1.3% YoY
FY2
$3.79
+0.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$650M
FCF Margin: 5.1%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
K beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
K Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $12.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Retail Channel Snacks
63.7%
+0.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
North America Other
51.6%
+0.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Retail Channel Snacks is the largest disclosed segment at 63.7% of FY 2024 revenue, up 0.2% YoY.
North America Other is the largest reported region at 51.6%, up 0.1% YoY.
K Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $42 — implies -49.6% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
49.6%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
K
21.5x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
12% discount
vs Consumer Defensive Trailing P/E
K
21.5x
vs
Consumer Defensive
18.9x
+14% premium
vs K 5Y Avg P/E
Today
21.5x
vs
5Y Average
19.0x
+13% premium
Forward PE
22.1x
S&P 500
18.8x
+17%
Consumer Defensive
14.2x
+55%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
21.5x
S&P 500
24.4x
-12%
Consumer Defensive
18.9x
+14%
5Y Avg
19.0x
+13%
PEG Ratio
3.19x
S&P 500
1.66x
+92%
Consumer Defensive
1.92x
+66%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
15.5x
S&P 500
15.2x
+2%
Consumer Defensive
11.1x
+40%
5Y Avg
15.0x
+3%
Price/FCF
25.6x
S&P 500
20.7x
+24%
Consumer Defensive
15.3x
+68%
5Y Avg
19.2x
+33%
Price/Sales
2.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
-26%
Consumer Defensive
0.9x
+159%
5Y Avg
1.7x
+31%
Dividend Yield
2.69%
S&P 500
1.91%
+40%
Consumer Defensive
3.06%
-12%
5Y Avg
3.61%
-26%
| Metric | K | S&P 500 | Consumer Defensive | 5Y Avg K |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 22.1x | 18.8x+17% | 14.2x+55% | — |
| Trailing PE | 21.5x | 24.4x-12% | 18.9x+14% | 19.0x+13% |
| PEG Ratio | 3.19x | 1.66x+92% | 1.92x+66% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.5x | 15.2x | 11.1x+40% | 15.0x |
| Price/FCF | 25.6x | 20.7x+24% | 15.3x+68% | 19.2x+33% |
| Price/Sales | 2.3x | 3.1x-26% | 0.9x+159% | 1.7x+31% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.69% | 1.91% | 3.06% | 3.61% |
K trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolK Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
K 14.7% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage — returns 2.7% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$12.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-1.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
36.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
14.7%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
10.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.81
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$650M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
5.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
14.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
8.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$694M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$5.6B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
8.7× FCF
~8.7 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
31.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.7%
Dividend
2.7%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.24
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
57.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
348M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageK Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Revenue Stagnation
Revenue growth has stalled, inching up by less than 1% in the last two quarters, indicating challenges with pricing or sales volumes.
High Risk
Competitive Pressure
Brands may lose share to healthier or more innovative rivals, leading to long-term revenue stagnation.
Medium
Balance Sheet Strain
Kellanova's financial health shows a mature company with strong brands but a strained balance sheet.
Medium
Integration Risk
The bull case depends on successful acquisition and integration of a new growth platform, which carries execution risk.
Lower
Market Sentiment
Valuation analysis must consider brand strength and distribution compared to rivals, which may impact investor confidence.
Lower
Corporate Restructuring
The spin-off of the global snacking business introduces uncertainty but may not directly impact core operations.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why K Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Strong brand portfolio
Kellanova owns iconic, world-class brands like Cheez-It, Pringles, Pop Tarts, Eggo, and MorningStar Farms, which are key drivers of its market position.
Innovation-driven growth
The company's bull case includes a +5% revenue CAGR if innovation in Cheez-It and Pringles captures more market share than anticipated.
Mars acquisition upside
Mars, Incorporated's acquisition of Kellanova could provide strategic benefits and synergies, enhancing the company's growth prospects.
Global snacking leadership
As a global leader in snacking, cereal, noodles, and plant-based foods, Kellanova is well-positioned to capitalize on growing demand in these categories.
Moderate long-term growth
Kellanova's long-term growth prospects appear moderate, supported by its diversified product portfolio and strong brand equity.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
K Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$83.44
52W Range Position
97%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$76.48
+9.1% from the low
52-Week High
$83.65
-0.3% from the high
1 Month
—
3 Month
—
YTD
—
1 Year
+5.7%
3Y CAGR
+10.7%
5Y CAGR
+6.9%
10Y CAGR
+1.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
K vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
22.1x
vs 9.8x median
+125% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+1.3%
vs +2.1% median
-36% below peer median
Net Margin
10.6%
vs 3.8% median
+176% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
K K Kellanova | $29.0B | 22.1x | +1.3% | 10.6% | Hold | -11.3% |
GIS GIS General Mills, Inc. | $17.8B | 9.8x | +0.9% | 12.1% | Hold | +11.6% |
CPB CPB Campbell Soup Company | $6.3B | 9.7x | +2.7% | 6.1% | Hold | -2.3% |
SJM SJM The J. M. Smucker Company | $11.8B | 12.3x | +3.0% | -1.5% | Buy | +8.5% |
CAG CAG Conagra Brands, Inc. | $6.3B | 7.8x | +0.4% | 0.1% | Hold | +15.2% |
HRL HRL Hormel Foods Corporation | $13.3B | 16.3x | +2.1% | 3.8% | Hold | -2.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
K Dividend and Capital Return
K returns 2.7% total yield, led by a 2.69% dividend, raised 21 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
2.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
2.69%
Payout Ratio
57.8%
How K Splits Its Return
Div 2.69%
Dividend 2.69%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.24
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
21Y
3Y Div CAGR
1.5%
5Y Div CAGR
1.4%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
2 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
348M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $2.30 | +1.8% | — | — |
| 2024 | $2.26 | +1.3% | 0.0% | 2.8% |
| 2023 | $2.23 | +1.6% | 0.9% | 5.0% |
| 2022 | $2.20 | +1.3% | 1.3% | 4.8% |
| 2021 | $2.17 | +1.3% | 1.2% | 5.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsK Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Kellanova (K) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Kellanova (K) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 34 analysts covering the stock, 13 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 20 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $74, implying -11.3% from the current price of $83. The bear case scenario is $51 and the bull case is $107.
02What is the K stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for K is $74 based on 34 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $87 (+4.3% from today), and the low-end target is $60 (-28.1%). The base case model target is $82.
03Is Kellanova (K) stock overvalued in 2026?
K trades at 22.1x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Kellanova (K) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for K in 2026 are: (1) Revenue Stagnation — Revenue growth has stalled, inching up by less than 1% in the last two quarters, indicating challenges with pricing or sales volumes. (2) Competitive Pressure — Brands may lose share to healthier or more innovative rivals, leading to long-term revenue stagnation. (3) Balance Sheet Strain — Kellanova's financial health shows a mature company with strong brands but a strained balance sheet. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Kellanova's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates K will report consensus revenue of $12.8B (+1.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.76 (-1.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $13.1B in revenue.
06When does Kellanova (K) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for K is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Kellanova generate?
Kellanova (K) generated $650M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 5.1%. K returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.7% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).